US Presidential Election 2020

[Vishnu.Reang]

@alani123. Mail in ballots is another method to cheat easily for the incumbent because it controls the biggest political machinery. Trump might be saying he does not like it for Democratic states to allow it hehehe.

LOL.. Anyone remember the 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota? That one is perhaps the prime example of an election stolen through the usage of mail in ballots. After the initial count, the GOP candidate (Norm Coleman) was leading by a few hundred votes. But then the Democrats started finding stacks of mail-in ballots (obviously all of them marked for their candidate Al Franken) in various places such as municipal thrash boxes, public toilets, bus stops.etc. In the end, Franken was declared the winner by around 300 votes (around 0.01%). 

[Cnut237]

The reason Trump is against mail in votes is because he thinks the process benefits Democrats. This is because the received wisdom is that mail in votes increase turnout, and increased turnout generally means higher votes for Democrats. Whether or not this is true is moot. Trump has shown little interest in legality or fairness throughout his presidency so far. Because he is so far behind in the polls, he tried to use this as an excuse to postpone the election and remain in power, as I suggested might happen a couple of weeks ago...

I would not be at all surprised if Biden wins the election, but Trump refuses to acknowledge defeat and just tries to brazen it out by declaring certain aspects invalid or fraudulent or unlawful - postal votes being an obvious possibility.

Now that has been ruled out, Trump still has it as an excuse to explain why he lost. Can you ever imagine Trump admitting that he's been beaten fairly in anything?

[perfect999]

Plus when you do mail in voting, you do not have to spend time at all, you just get the mail, you put on your vote, you leave it at the place and you are done, you can do this inside of weeks and weeks.

However if you want to vote in person, you have to wait in lines for hours and hours and you have to actually be there and you have to maybe take that day off from work if you can even do that, so basically it takes a ton of stuff to actually do it, who would really want to do something like that when you can simply just mail your vote without having to worry about none of that. That is the reason why Trump hates it, if they allow mail voting everywhere around the USA and make it super easy, republicans would never win a single more election, there would be only centrist democrats vs progressive democrats.

[STT]

In person voting does favour the rich and those with time to spare, anyone working one job or multiple jobs doesnt have the luxury of voting always unfortunately.   Easy for me to confirm because Ive been in that predicament.    Seems like instead of all the arguments we knew would be pointless like the impeachment this simple idea of allowing mail in votes would have been a better and more influential fight to pick, might have even turned the tide.

increased turnout generally means higher votes for Democrats.

By that measure its a return to power for republicians in this vote because even with all the protests we didnt see new voters register.   Maybe the lockdown helped to secure a low registration of new voters or stop any rising percentage of active voters.   You have a more likely repeat of the last election when its just the same people who have got older since then, unless there is some significant change from last time its not especially reasonable to expect a different result.

However a long time accurate predictor says Trump will lose out here, he predicted for Trump in 2016 and similarly accurate back to Reagan era:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

with video

[figmentofmyass]

However a long time accurate predictor says Trump will lose out here, he predicted for Trump in 2016 and similarly accurate back to Reagan era:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

that's a pretty interesting counterpoint to "the primary model" which has performed impeccably well for the last century and heavily favors trump:

Trump has 91% chance of re-election, according to model that got 25 of the last 27 elections right
The political science professor predicts Trump will have an even larger win in 2020 than his 2016 victory.

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

Source https://www.theblaze.com/news/trump-win-2020-election-prediction-model

like i've said before, it's hard to view this election as much different than a coin flip, give or take 10% chance or so.

trump voters are unpredictable.

[bbc.reporter]

@alani123. Mail in ballots is another method to cheat easily for the incumbent because it controls the biggest political machinery. Trump might be saying he does not like it for Democratic states to allow it hehehe.

LOL.. Anyone remember the 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota? That one is perhaps the prime example of an election stolen through the usage of mail in ballots. After the initial count, the GOP candidate (Norm Coleman) was leading by a few hundred votes. But then the Democrats started finding stacks of mail-in ballots (obviously all of them marked for their candidate Al Franken) in various places such as municipal thrash boxes, public toilets, bus stops.etc. In the end, Franken was declared the winner by around 300 votes (around 0.01%).  

I reckon Trump's election team are geniuses. Blame the enemy for what you are planning to do hehehe. They know anything Trump wants, the Democrats will want the other side.

In any case, another delay for the declaration on Biden's vice president. Why is there a delay? Susan Rice hehehe?

@figmentofmyass. Trump voters are not unpredictable because you know they will vote for Trump. The silent majority is unpredictable and also the patriotic liberals who want peace and order and to make America great again.

[wiss19]

With all of this riots and all of this Axios meeting and Trump not taking a single bit of responsibility and all of this people with guns storming the protestors and all that, I am pretty sure this is not like the last elections at all.

You can find similarities about how people were saying "Hillary would definitely win, trump is an idiot" and now saying the same thing but just with Biden, but this time around we have seen 4 years of trump and dude is not only an idiot, he is a willing evil who could let people die and killed off just because they are blue or he could just tell how much he likes a racist person who has done nothing while also saying bad stuff about a person of colour who has done so much for the world.

Anyone who doesn't praise him suddenly becomes a bad person. It is really not a way USA could continue, this is vital importance that buffoon needs to be sent into jail right after elections are over and he gives up power.

[johhnyUA]

Our books gives such odds for USA elections:

Democrats - 1.45
Republicans - 2.60

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Trump - 2.65
Biden - 1.5

https://parimatch.com/sport/politika/ssha

Odds for Trump is enough high, isn't it,  figmentofmyass? Or it will be better to wait and try to get something higher 3+ ?

[STT]

Trump at 2.65 is too good, I would be tempted there.    I just put something down on Biden at 2.23 and that seems a fair bet considering the chaos seems to be ongoing.    Just as a trend if I thought Trump had screwed up but was improving somehow then that'd be the bet but it seems to be a continual tumble, its hard to understand how its a win.   Of course its the contrast between the two.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kanye-is-e2-80-98walking-e2-80-99-not-running-for-president-campaign-update/ar-BB17DO2w

 Also saw this story on split vote which whether its intentional or not, its definitely a thing and again we repeat events of 100 years ago.

[bbc.reporter]

@STT. It might be better to wait. Trump odds went to 4.50 on 2016 that was 2 days before the election day. We will certainly witness something similar on November. The results will also be similar or it might be something shocking. A landslide for Trump hehehe.

[figmentofmyass]

Odds for Trump is enough high, isn't it,  figmentofmyass? Or it will be better to wait and try to get something higher 3+ ?

why me? i'm no expert.

another run to 2.9-3 seems possible, but certainly not guaranteed. i don't think we'll get any better than that. i think the current odds are pretty good value, considering the fact that i still consider trump a slight favorite and definitely no worse than 50-50.

[tyKiwanuka]

 I just put something down on Biden at 2.23 (...)

In which place is Biden still 2.23 ? That would be a nice little surebet of around 20+%.


I think 2.60 is about fair at this point, but will be good value in November. Catching the peak is very difficult, so I would always keep some powder dry and stake in portions. Starting from September 29th, I expect the odds to go down (from whereever they are at this point then).

[erikoy]

 I just put something down on Biden at 2.23 (...)

In which place is Biden still 2.23 ? That would be a nice little surebet of around 20+%.


I think 2.60 is about fair at this point, but will be good value in November. Catching the peak is very difficult, so I would always keep some powder dry and stake in portions. Starting from September 29th, I expect the odds to go down (from whereever they are at this point then).

yeah that was quite a little bit strategic on your part for betting like that. But if you wanted to earn huge then you must take chances as early as now to get huge return but mind you it is more risky than the strategy you are improvising right now. Well good luck on your betting here. I must say you had one good chance to get return. And probably I will also going to try the same thing on your betting strategy. LOL. Is there any chance you can update when you bet so that I can see how it will going to be done?

[bitbunnny]

Plus when you do mail in voting, you do not have to spend time at all, you just get the mail, you put on your vote, you leave it at the place and you are done, you can do this inside of weeks and weeks.

However if you want to vote in person, you have to wait in lines for hours and hours and you have to actually be there and you have to maybe take that day off from work if you can even do that, so basically it takes a ton of stuff to actually do it, who would really want to do something like that when you can simply just mail your vote without having to worry about none of that. That is the reason why Trump hates it, if they allow mail voting everywhere around the USA and make it super easy, republicans would never win a single more election, there would be only centrist democrats vs progressive democrats.

On of the solutions could be electronic voting system. Some countries in the world already have it (like Estonia) and its functioning well. The chances for misuse are minimal and everything is very fast and convenient for citizens. But I guess Trump wouldn't like that way of voting either.

[bonjouros]

Your point is not that bad as you have given your thought deeply about the possible candidates to beat the current administration which is Donald Trump.

As you have said Biden and Cuomo are friends therefore there is a big chance that they will consider everything before they will decide on whom to run.
If Biden will decide that he is not fit anymore to run for president because of his age and health condition then it will surely give a way for Cuomo to fight Trump.

About the odds that were given, I am not really familiar if who among of them has the bigger odds compare to other as I am not really familiar to that kind of odds
and you only stated the percentage of Cuomo and you forget to talk about the rest.

[perfect999]

I doubt that they would make Biden win the nomination after all of this time and when Bernie has the second most votes for nomination, they would move Biden aside for Cuomo, that doesn't seem like a very possible situation, I am pretty sure there would be a lot of in fighting going on inside the DNC for Bernie to get nomination if Biden doesn't get it.

But, I am 99% sure Biden will keep being the candidate for sure, he earned it and he wants it as well so he will keep it. At the same time Trump might be doing horrible stuff with the Covid and BLM situation right now which could make a lot more democrats to go out to vote and that is a great thing for Biden, yet at the same time Biden is not doing stuff to win, sure Trump works to lose but we need Biden to do something to win in order to get it, otherwise it will be Clinton deal all over again.

[johhnyUA]

Trump at 2.65 is too good, I would be tempted there.  

In fact, you can as i know. Parimatch is international company. But for honest, you should be aware that this is (despite maybe the clearest and the best in eastern europe) enough cunning book. Some machinations can take place.

@STT. It might be better to wait. Trump odds went to 4.50 on 2016 that was 2 days before the election day.

 

Why do you think so? I mean such big odd.

Odds for Trump is enough high, isn't it,  figmentofmyass? Or it will be better to wait and try to get something higher 3+ ?

why me? i'm no expert.

another run to 2.9-3 seems possible, but certainly not guaranteed. i don't think we'll get any better than that. i think the current odds are pretty good value, considering the fact that i still consider trump a slight favorite and definitely no worse than 50-50.

I remember that we talked about this before, and i remember that you was waiting for some "better odds for Trump" so i asked you is 2.65 is enough good 

[mindrust]

we need Biden to do something to win in order to get it, otherwise it will be Clinton deal all over again.

Biden is a weak candidate. A lot weaker than Hillary. If Trump loses this, it is because Trump loses, not because Biden wins.

I still predict Trump to win though. He is simply a better candidate no matter how stupid he is.

[johhnyUA]

we need Biden to do something to win in order to get it, otherwise it will be Clinton deal all over again.

Biden is a weak candidate. A lot weaker than Hillary. If Trump loses this, it is because Trump loses, not because Biden wins.

I still predict Trump to win though. He is simply a better candidate no matter how stupid he is.

This is not a question "who is stronger/better candidate", people do not think in such categories tho. It's better to ask "who fit better modern USA, Trump or Biden?". It's hard to answer, because we see many BLM activists and zoomers, but we can't be sure what think average middle class american about all of that. Biden sound a little hypocrisy, because for everyone it's obvious that he is the same as Trump, from american white rich elite class

[bbc.reporter]

I doubt that they would make Biden win the nomination after all of this time and when Bernie has the second most votes for nomination, they would move Biden aside for Cuomo, that doesn't seem like a very possible situation, I am pretty sure there would be a lot of in fighting going on inside the DNC for Bernie to get nomination if Biden doesn't get it.

But, I am 99% sure Biden will keep being the candidate for sure, he earned it and he wants it as well so he will keep it. At the same time Trump might be doing horrible stuff with the Covid and BLM situation right now which could make a lot more democrats to go out to vote and that is a great thing for Biden, yet at the same time Biden is not doing stuff to win, sure Trump works to lose but we need Biden to do something to win in order to get it, otherwise it will be Clinton deal all over again.

Every Democratic nominee has surrendered to Biden already.

Also, Susan Rice has presently become the next favorite after Kamala Harris hehehe. It will be Susan Rice, I reckon. Biden will need the protection against Russiagate.