Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[DaRude]

You have published Putin's stated ratio. So to go to the point: do you give credibility to that or are you trying to squeeze your way out of publishing something you do not believe for its possible propaganda value? Before answering this, make sure you clearly understand the figure Putin gave.

If you ask me "do I give credibility to the figures I post", I will send you here:

[...]

Today the official killed / missing in action figure for the Ruzzian army has reached half a million. Figures in war tend to be only estimates, but it is still a dam big estimate.

So I do give some degree of credibility to figures:
https://www.minusrus.com/en  

Personnel
~516.080 +1080

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Vehicles:

(Click on the numbers to get a picture of each individual captured or destroyed vehicle)
Russia - 16199, of which: destroyed: 11633, damaged: 733, abandoned: 924, captured: 2909

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240503-france-estimates-that-150-000-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-in-the-ukraine-war

But you can also go to any more official source, they all assume between 465000 / 510000 loses.

Claims that Ukraine is loosing up to 50k soldiers/month were published in response to your claims, for a full picture. I give as much credibility on Russian losses coming from the Ukrainian side, as I do for Ukrainian losses coming from the Russian side. It's hard to imagine any more biased sources than direct participants in the conflict. In fact it's kind of their job to lie to their population in order to keep morale from collapsing. But logically speaking citing such information from the involved party is just pure propaganda. But I think it's safe to say that the side that has almost daily air alerts all over the country, countrywide power blackouts, loosing land daily, mobilizing younger population, support of who's leader is dropping, and who's leadership's existence is totally dependent on the direct support from the outside, has few more reasons to exaggerate. In other words, who do you think is more dependent on public opinion, guy who's daily job is to fight for every pair of eyeballs, trying to gather as much publicity as humanly possible in order to bring as much attention/support to Ukraine as possible, or well...Putin?

Sorry but you are not giving an answer, You have published Putin's stated ratio. So to go to the point: do you give credibility to that or are you trying to squeeze your way out of publishing something you do not believe for its possible propaganda value?

I am insisting on this because either you have not thought this figure over or you assume nobody here can do some basic math or you are plain lying. Which one is it?

I'd expect to see war footage all over X, tik tok, etc...  not just the lame stream media who has lost all credibility.

Which video would you like to see? I mean, have you tried Google or duckduck? They tend to be available one or two days after the hits are reported. Many times they can be geolocated easily.

Are you questioning the ATACAMS or drone strikes? I mean... there is satellite imagery commercially available all over for most of it. I am just trying figure out if you are trying to spread fud or have some honest interest in war porn.

I do believe that ratio of losses was almost even, but since the failed UA offensive, overwhelming Russian artillery, surprising effects and number of Russian glide bombs, number of Russian drones, and the fact that Ukraine's army is mostly conscripts where majority on Russia's side is contractors I do believe that now the ratio of losses is to Russia's advantage. You can extrapolate the rest, using whichever numbers of Russian looses you wish

[paxmao]

I do believe that ratio of losses was almost even, but since the failed UA offensive, overwhelming Russian artillery, surprising effects and number of Russian glide bombs, number of Russian drones, and the fact that Ukraine's army is mostly conscripts where majority on Russia's side is contractors I do believe that now the ratio of losses is to Russia's advantage. You can extrapolate the rest, using your own numbers of Russian looses if you wish

Even a 2:1 ratio would yield 1 million Ukrainian soldiers out of action. do you think Ukraine mobilised 1 million soldiers? I don't. Probably more like half of that and the front in manned. See why those numbers are unbelievable?

[BADecker]

^^^ Well, Russia acknowledges only about 100,000 war death so far. That fits right in with the 600,000 or 700,000 war deaths for Ukraine.

[paxmao]

^^^ Well, Russia acknowledges only about 100,000 war death so far. That fits right in with the 600,000 or 700,000 war deaths for Ukraine.

That could actually be correct. The 450 - 500k number is not killed, is killed / injured / missing in action and that number tends to be 3 x dead. So Ruzzia is effective saying 300k soldiers out of action. No that much of a difference.

It seems that Ruzzia has been unable to consolidate gains in the North - Kharkiv direction. The moment the US allowed to use the HIMARS (that "does not work") all the logistics collapsed. And there is an even worse outcome for Ruzzia: now the gate to strike inside Ruzzia, up to 200 km, is open. A total failure for a terribly wrong strategy from Ruzzia.

As promised, some details of the strike on the Luhansk barracks yesterday:
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-defense-forces-hit-russian-military-barracks-in-luhansk/

This is one of the most watched videos of the week - a direct head-on fight between a Bradley and a Ruzzian BPM.

https://youtu.be/eWc2CTs8A8k?t=4

BTW, the Ruzzian Carrier "Kutznesov" is not going to sea again. After two people smoked in the wrong place and probably after figuring out that the corruption ate the budget it is just going to be decommissioned.

[cpu6502]

Just imagine having a plentiful supply of natural gas you obtain cheaply.
And fortunate to have thirsty buyers on your doorstep.
All wiith the infrastructure in place so you can transport it cheaply, easily and reliably.
Decades or near guaranteed handsome profits for next to no work.

Then flushing all that permanently down the toilet. 

[paxmao]

Just imagine having a plentiful supply of natural gas you obtain cheaply.
And fortunate to have thirsty buyers on your doorstep.
All wiith the infrastructure in place so you can transport it cheaply, easily and reliably.
Decades or near guaranteed handsome profits for next to no work.

Then flushing all that permanently down the toilet.  

It will be back to almost normal.

[BADecker]

Ukraine's crimes are coming out into the open. I've seen Gonzalo Lira expressing info about what is really going on in the war. Will somebody please find him still alive to contradict Putin?


Kiev regime tortured US journalist to death – Putin


https://www.rt.com/news/598818-putin-says-ukraine-tortured-us-journalist-to-death/
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called out the US government for neglecting to even ask questions after an American journalist was tortured to death in a Ukrainian jail earlier this year.

Speaking at a press briefing on Wednesday in St Petersburg, Putin was asked whether Russian officials would help facilitate an investigation of a French journalist who was reportedly killed last month in a missile strike west of Artyomovsk (known as Bakhmut in Ukraine). He offered to help enable the probe, but he also contrasted the response to the Frenchman’s death to how the administration of US President Joe Biden reacted when American blogger Gonzalo Lira died in Ukraine earlier this year.

“They tortured an American journalist to death in a Ukrainian prison, and the US is not even asking what happened to him,” Putin said. “No one went to the trouble of asking what actually happened.”
...

[Pidgeon]

^^^ Well, Russia acknowledges only about 100,000 war death so far. That fits right in with the 600,000 or 700,000 war deaths for Ukraine.

So does this mean they will finally win this special operation in the next 30 years?
The eastern war lasted 3 years and 10 months, this one is starting to get pretty close, with no allies to arm them anymore with anything other than golfcarts and hijab drones what can the proud russian soldiers, do, die like cattle for the motherland.

[C10H15N]

I would expect to see thousands of posts on social media from the soldiers and impacted civilians on both sides of the conflict - instead, nothing but crickets.

Oh, so warporn... it is all over the place. It is unlikely that "impacted soldiers" will selfi themselves after the fact. The video barely qualifies, but it is the recently hit refinery near Rostov, but there is so much stuff published out there and it is so simple to find that ... well, just go google a bit and you will see all your voyeuristic wet dreams fulfilled by the magic of people posting carnage all over. You can find all short of snuff there.

https://t.me/etorostov/55308

You're projecting.   

[paxmao]

Morozov air base. How is is possible that a slow flying drone managed to hit an air base full of SU bombers?

https://youtu.be/sxZcsWvQCQA?t=58

The north offensive is looking worse and worse for Ruzzia. It did no weaken or distract armies from the rest of the front, but costed hundreds of additional soldiers killed every day and material loses sometimes even before they could reach the frontline of combats. Let us see how Ukraine manages the advantages of the new rules about hitting inside Ruzzia.

As indicator, the number of soldiers put out of action is high (1200 today) but the number of BTRs is not at all. Seems that Ruzzia is struggling to send enough troop transports to the front. Frog's boiling.

[Branko]

You're projecting.   

That's all he is doing since start of thread

[paxmao]

There is confirmation of the first SU-57 loss ever recorded. This is the most modern and most expensive of the Jet fighters that Ruzzia has fielded. Who would have thought that all you need to fight this allegedly technical prodigy is... just a drone with the most basic capabilities - taking-off, fly and crash in the choose spot. I guess you should be more careful on where you park your jets.

[LTU_btc]

I would expect to see thousands of posts on social media from the soldiers and impacted civilians on both sides of the conflict - instead, nothing but crickets.

I don't get your point, do you want to say that there is not enough videos from this war? If that's your point, you're completely wrong. Probably none of wars before didn't had so much coverage. You shouldn't expect such videos from soldiers, do you think that they're allowed to upload everything from front line? But still, quite often such videos appears. While if something happens in cities, like arrival of missile, drone, air defense hitting missiles and etc, such things appears on internet from all possible angles. If you don't see such stuff, probably you're looking  in wrong places.
There is less videos from front line, simply because there is barely any civilians left, but still, there is plenty of videos filmed from drones.

Morozov air base. How is is possible that a slow flying drone managed to hit an air base full of SU bombers?

https://youtu.be/sxZcsWvQCQA?t=58

Also, in Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region first Su-57 fighter jet was hit and destroyed or at least damaged.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1799689562257527224
It's one of newest Russian fighter jets and they have just few of them.
BTW, there is good map with all Russian oblasts were various objects were attacked by drones
https://t.me/WarZoneInc/80794
EDIT @paxmao was faster with this stuff .

[Betwrong]

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

[cpu6502]

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

There'll be no "wins" for either side this year.
A very good indicator how well Russia is performing is a watching the inverse correlation of the amount nuclear threats spewing out of them.
When things are looking good, the nuclear threats drop.
When things are looking bad, the nuclear threats ramp up.

Last week the threats went into overdrive. Therefore things are very very bad for Russia.

[BADecker]

^^^ Russia has a long-standing, good relationship with China. US beware.

The problem for Russia is the funding to Ukraine from the US and Nato... even if much of it goes into Zelensky's personal pockets. So, Zelensky accepts apologies from Biden now that he is making money again.

The problem for the US is to stop placing their trust in Zelensky. It's doomed to fail... when you consider China with Russia.


Biden apologizes to Zelenskyy for monthslong congressional holdup to weapons that let Russia advance


https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-biden-zelenskyy-a77546e23fa571eb7f6509d4e14b89b3
President Joe Biden on Friday for the first time publicly apologized to Ukraine for a monthslong congressional holdup in American military assistance that let Russia make gains on the battlefield.

Biden met in Paris with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who appealed for bipartisan U.S. support going forward "like it was during World War II."

A day earlier, the two had attended ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy, where Biden had drawn common cause between the allied forces that helped free Europe from Nazi Germany and today's effort to support Ukraine against Russia's invasion and Zelenskyy had been greeted with a rapt ovation.

"I apologize for those weeks of not knowing what's going to happen in terms of funding," Biden said, referring to the six-month holdup by conservative Republicans in Congress to a $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine. Still, the Democratic president insisted the American people were standing by Ukraine for the long haul. "We're still in. Completely. Thoroughly," he said.

The apology — and Zelenskyy's plea for rock-solid support akin to the allied coalition in WWII — served as a reminder that for all of Biden's talk of an unflagging U.S commitment to Ukraine, recalcitrance among congressional Republicans and an isolationist strain in American politics have exposed its fragility. And, although unremarked upon, the specter of Donald Trump's candidacy loomed over the discussion, as the Republican former president and the presumptive nominee has spoken positively of Russian President Vladimir Putin and sparked Ukrainian concerns that he would call for it to cede territory to end the conflict.

Zelenskyy pressed for all Americans to support his country's defense against Russia's invasion, and he thanked lawmakers for eventually coming together to approve the weapons package, which has allowed Ukraine to stem Russian advances in recent weeks.

"It's very important that in this unity, United States of America, all American people stay with Ukraine like it was during World War II," Zelenskyy said. "How the United States helped to save human lives, to save Europe. And we count on your continuing support in standing with us shoulder to shoulder."
...

[paxmao]

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

Edit:
Thanks for your loose and disconnected comment. It helps everyone understand that you have nothing to add to this conversation but somehow your brain feels compelled to say something like this. Since the beginning of this war of aggression towards Ukraine, Putin had no fall-back plan. This conflict cannot be solved, even win is "win" in this context.

The European elections have given further rise to the far right in Europe. Maybe Putin is what Europe need to stay united despite.

[BADecker]

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

Thanks for your loose and disconnected comment. It helps everyone understand that you have nothing to add to this conversation but somehow your brain feels compelled to say something like this. Since the beginning of this war of aggression towards Ukraine, Putin had no fall-back plan. This conflict cannot be solved, even win is "win" in this context.

The European elections have given further rise to the far right in Europe. Maybe Putin is what Europe need to stay united despite.

Simply note that Russia sells petroleum products to China through the Russia China pipeline. Even though there are snags in the agreement, we haven't seen China weighing in regarding what they really think about the war. They don't like the Biden attitude, even though they might like doing business with US people and companies in general. China swings mean a lot.

[DaRude]

I do believe that ratio of losses was almost even, but since the failed UA offensive, overwhelming Russian artillery, surprising effects and number of Russian glide bombs, number of Russian drones, and the fact that Ukraine's army is mostly conscripts where majority on Russia's side is contractors I do believe that now the ratio of losses is to Russia's advantage. You can extrapolate the rest, using your own numbers of Russian looses if you wish

Even a 2:1 ratio would yield 1 million Ukrainian soldiers out of action. do you think Ukraine mobilised 1 million soldiers? I don't. Probably more like half of that and the front in manned. See why those numbers are unbelievable?

No i do not, but all that means is that your initial assessment of 500k Russian losses is invalid. Believe both sides acknowledged that most of their losses are not from firearms but from shrapnel. And when one side has overwhelming advantage by thousands/month in almost everything exploding with shrapnel such as artillery shells, glide bombs, long range exploding drones, there just isn't close to enough precision weapons ATACMs/HIMARS/Storm Shadows/Scalp to even make a dent in that. Russia is just pushing one tree line at a time now (i'm sure you've seen those fields littered with shell craters) and with China's backing Russia has proven that they can maintain this, there's really no stopping this. All you can do is keep sending reinforcements to that tree line to slow Russia down, thus lowering age for mobilized conscripts.

Sad part is, after all of the escalations now current US administration cannot back out of this, thus the Irony that Trump is really Ukrainian's only option. After the elections. prior government would claim how Ukraine was totally almost winning before Trump, and Trump will blame Biden for starting a useless war which he ended. No loosers, everyone wins (well, except for all of the lost Ukrainians played as pawns by their government). (Russia wins by reasserting itself as regional power, like we're already seeing in Georgia/Armenia.)

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

There'll be no "wins" for either side this year.
A very good indicator how well Russia is performing is a watching the inverse correlation of the amount nuclear threats spewing out of them.
When things are looking good, the nuclear threats drop.
When things are looking bad, the nuclear threats ramp up.

Last week the threats went into overdrive. Therefore things are very very bad for Russia.

Typically I'd agree, but in this case you're confusing the cause and effect. So in this case, a very good indicator of how well Ukraine is performing is watching inverse correlation to the promises of NATO troops in Ukraine. Ukraine is doing so well on it's own even about to take Crimea/Moscow, think it's time we send NATO troops there  

In other news, to no one's surprise EU is shifting far right.

It has been a sorry sight for Germany's three-party coalition government, but unlike Emmanuel Macron, Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he will not call for an election.
...
Step in the populist far-right and far-left, who promise a quick return to peace and prosperity: "Just negotiate with Putin, and buy Russian gas again," says the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
AfD came second with 15.9% and Scholz's social democratic SPD came third with 13.9%. Coming up top was the conservative CDU party with an impressive 30% of the vote.
"We want to end the war so just stop sending arms to Ukraine and stop migrants coming," says the new populist far-left party BSW led by ex-communist firebrand Sahra Wagenknecht.
...
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has cemented her grip on Italian politics.
She used the European elections to boost her own popularity by putting her name at the top of her party's ballot, and it proved a successful gamble: with 29%, she has increased the vote gained by her party in the 2022 general election.
...
While Geert Wilders - who until recently promised a referendum on Nexit (i.e. Netherlands' exit from the EU) - posted five red love heart emojis on X. "Still the biggest winner with five more seats.”
...
In Hungary, Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party won both the European and municipal elections.
...
Far-right party claims 'new era' in Austria

I'm wondering if that's what the cookie monster Nuland meant when she said Fuck the EU? They should try to pivot and somehow try to blame Putin for this too.



[moderator's note: multiple posts have been merged]

[BADecker]

But Monsanto and the other two US companies who bought up farmland in Ukraine... they like the war. It means they won't need to plow so much this year.