[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

Well, I already encountered people who said things like "so basically you are telling me I should buy coins you (or someone else) got much cheaper? This looks fishy/a pyramid scheme/..."

Actually, they should buy coins I got much dearer. 

What kind of ponzi does that?

Of course if they want to buy them from me, I will just replenish.

[smoothie]

The perception thing was a lose-lose game. If we changed the emission then, it would've looked bad. So we left it alone. But that will look bad in a few years from now when newcomers look back. But think about it: most people really don't know how money is created. They don't study the history and origin of the money they use. They just use it. If Monero is the same way, then the perception of the emission won't matter in a few years from now. People will just use it if they find it useful. People don't care about the origins of USD when they earn it today and spend it tomorrow.

I truly think it won't matter. The success of XMR won't hinge on the emission.

Well, I already encountered people who said things like "so basically you are telling me I should buy coins you (or someone else) got much cheaper? This looks fishy/a pyramid scheme/..."

I know... fiat is a constantly instamined scam. But still, this is a real feeling.
This feeling is even bigger when you tell them that already 2/3 of the total emission is already distributed (talking about BTC here).
So XMR does a little better in this case, with the permanent block reward.

But imho, I'm still convinced a fixed block reward right from the start will be perceived as the most "fair and neutral" emission scheme.
I do think that monero could "overcome" this issue due to the permanent block reward. BTC... not so sure about it.

And stoners will be stoners, they don't care about how the money is created, as long as they can buy weed with it  

Anyone who says that about pyramid scheme doesn't see it being done every time they use FIAT paper/digits.

That is the biggest ponzi scheme of them all lol

[americanpegasus]

But imho, I'm still convinced a fixed block reward right from the start will be perceived as the most "fair and neutral" emission scheme.
I do think that monero could "overcome" this issue due to the permanent block reward. BTC... not so sure about it.

Not sure Monero would have survived this long with a fixed block reward scheme from the outset.  
  
The first years are the roughest, and without some sort of incentive to stick with the project through rougher times (in the way of increased share of mining) then you may not be able to sustain your mining operations or your fan base.  With a currency arising from nothing there is no other way to incentivize those who come early other than an increased share of the eventual rewards.  
  
So many things were ahead of their time with the original bitcoin, and only now are we realizing the genius of some of those moves.  I'm sure there is a great explanation for why a logarithmic distribution is far superior to a linear one out there somewhere.

[cryptonic21]

Should a good person mine with a bad computer?  Bad = 35 H/s

If yes then, solo mine or pool?

If you're mining to help the network (and that's really the only reason with a bad computer) and you can, solo mine.

You may want to look into underclocking/undervolting to make the efficiency slightly less bad, unless you 100% don't care about electricity/heat.

To support the network we have recently started mining on our Monero payment processing droplet at digital ocean.

[Hueristic]

Should a good person mine with a bad computer?  Bad = 35 H/s

If yes then, solo mine or pool?

If you're mining to help the network (and that's really the only reason with a bad computer) and you can, solo mine.

You may want to look into underclocking/undervolting to make the efficiency slightly less bad, unless you 100% don't care about electricity/heat.

To support the network we have recently started mining on our Monero payment processing droplet at digital ocean.

Code:

[2015-10-30 02:57:21] Stratum detected new block
[2015-10-30 02:57:21] thread 2: 177 hashes, 8.38 H/s
[2015-10-30 02:57:21] thread 0: 170 hashes, 8.03 H/s
[2015-10-30 02:57:21] thread 1: 174 hashes, 8.24 H/s
[2015-10-30 02:57:21] thread 3: 175 hashes, 8.25 H/s
[2015-10-30 02:57:39] thread 0: 121 hashes, 6.81 H/s
[2015-10-30 02:57:39] accepted: 178/178 (100.00%), 31.68 H/s at diff 16000 (yay!
!!)

[inca]

Is monero used anywhere to transact for real world goods, has it made it onto the dark web yet?

[nioc]

Is monero used anywhere to transact for real world goods, has it made it onto the dark web yet?

There is not much you can now buy directly.  You can buy anything that you can buy with btc using XMR.TO although there are limits to the size of the transaction.  It does however give you the anonymity that is provided by using Monero.

It is not on the dark web yet.


From my understanding one reason that it is not used much is that the client is difficult to use or without needed features for such.  Sorry I can't give you details but there is a major release due out very soon that will address many of these issues.  Remember Monero is not a bitcoin clone but is an entirely different code base.  Much work is being done on it.

I'm not sure how much you already know and although lacking in much detail hope my answer helps.

[jehst]

Well, I already encountered people who said things like "so basically you are telling me I should buy coins you (or someone else) got much cheaper? This looks fishy/a pyramid scheme/..."

That's not true though. If you look at the volume-weighted average price, you can honestly say that most Bitcoin and Monero holders bought more expensive coins than people can buy now.

[GingerAle]

Is monero used anywhere to transact for real world goods, has it made it onto the dark web yet?

There is not much you can now buy directly.  You can buy anything that you can buy with btc using XMR.TO although there are limits to the size of the transaction.  It does however give you the anonymity that is provided by using Monero.

It is not on the dark web yet.


From my understanding one reason that it is not used much is that the client is difficult to use or without needed features for such.  Sorry I can't give you details but there is a major release due out very soon that will address many of these issues.  Remember Monero is not a bitcoin clone but is an entirely different code base.  Much work is being done on it.

I'm not sure how much you already know and although lacking in much detail hope my answer helps.

but honestly there's no way to know anything. We can't find a monero address on the blockchain and then search for that somewhere, we can't see a consistently used monero address on the blockchain, etc. I think someone is using the blockchain for real world something, because there's been 15-20% relatively high mixin useage over the past month... ever since we've had the stats.

http://moneroblocks.eu/stats

[owm123]

Is monero used anywhere to transact for real world goods, has it made it onto the dark web yet?

Slowly monero is appearing in darknet:
http://xmraddrvclhwipkp.onion
http://moneroxzfonkazxc.onion
http://safedice2ge73n2g.onion
http://ucphth5lasyp4enj.onion (only some monero presentation citation and recommendation)

[Bassica]

The trick with monero is not when to buy it,

it's when to sell it.

[Febo]

The trick with monero is not when to buy it,

it's when to sell it.

No is not. the trick is when to buy it. simply because beside June 2014 there was no good time to sell them yet.


Form a traders side of view ( i am not one of them) you just need to try to buy them as cheap as possible and sell as expensive as you can. Some seems are quite successful with it. Altho mathematically there should be as much unsuccessful as are successful.

[BitmoreCoin]

The trick with monero is not when to buy it,

it's when to sell it.

When to see it? From the past performance, it is good time to sell it for the past year. When to buy it? We do not know the price next year.

[macsga]

If you want a good price for XMR, I'd say this is it. It's the accumulation period that most of the future XMR owners will stare at their "early" days just like we "old bitcoiners" look back at 2011 (talking about myself). XMR is the coin that I'd never afford not to own some. So, I'm seizing the opportunity here. Don't take my advice for granted, as it's based on my own meandering experience; but please do yourselves a favor and keep *some* XMR for the future. Even a few will do the trick...

[luigi1111]

I doubt they're depositing in Huobi in their own names.  Rich Chinese people buy bank accounts opened in the names of literal peasants from Western China or dead people. Selling those accounts is a business. Once it's in bitcoin and leapfrogged across a couple of exchanges, it's gone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg

[elrippo]

I doubt they're depositing in Huobi in their own names.  Rich Chinese people buy bank accounts opened in the names of literal peasants from Western China or dead people. Selling those accounts is a business. Once it's in bitcoin and leapfrogged across a couple of exchanges, it's gone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg

Just had a laugh 

[medusa13]

dump going on now, volatility everywhere

[aminorex]

EURUSD looking like a long right now, for the weekend and most of next week.

Oh, and WHEE!  Cheap XMR again!  That probably shook out the miners betting on a daily BTCUSD top at the 330-340 resistance level.

[dEBRUYNE]

I've been watching XMR price closely for more than a year now.

Someone is selling aggressively XMR (profoundly a whale) to break the price and buy back lower. Unless it is a hacker/thief who had laundered the BTC to XMR and now does the opposite (I don't think this is the case because the selling is aggressive but very careful, done from a serious trader).

I hope he does not use leverage  

I've been observing this as well. He/she/it also has a pretty sophisticated bot, that constantly places random asks etc. In addition, he nearly always places a group of small asks (mostly something like 150-250-300) near the price and some bigger random asks (1-4k) a bit further away. His "manipulation" is quite salient. This behavior started after that massive (shortsale) dump until 0.0013, when basically all the loan offers were taken out (not immediately by the way). I've also seen this bot in a sort of reverse mode, but it mainly supresses the prices currently (like Klee pointed out).

I don't think its anything more complicated than some whale has a boatload of xmr and they want to cashout to fiat. Currently the only process is to go from xmr -> btc -> fiat, because at he/she/its level of holdings, an OTC trade probably wouldn't be wise ("oh yeah here's my 10k USD paypal transaction doop dee doo"). The value of all cryptocurrencies are linked to btc value, so this could be someone just seizing the opportunity to cash out of cryptocurrency while the gettings good. To do so at maximum value requires using a bot due to the liquidity of xmr. I'd say this is backed by the fact that this action has been going on since btc started its multimonth rise.

I think not, he is too aggressive to suppress the price when it tries to bounce.

Agree with Klee here. Also, if he wanted the best price he wouldn't push it this aggressively. He would cash out in a more elegant manner. Also, I think he is not only running a bot, but also occasionally market dumping like Klee pointed out before.

Huge news for ETH - http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/10/28/bitbeat-microsoft-to-offer-ethereum-based-services-on-azure/

Maybe they were dumping to get in ETH!

Yeah just read that, could be, but the fact that he still uses a lot of XMR to supress tells me this isn't very likely. Also, the ETH rise already started a few days ago, so probably a few insiders buying already.

Seems like he is using even more rigorous measures now...

[SmoothCurves]

.00124 WOW.