[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

Anyone else take a hit from rolling over eth into xmr above .002?

Emotional support needed: I could have had so much more, but I'm okay with what I got.

Optimizers die lonely and sad.  Satisficers die loved and content.

Personally I don't touch ETH.  VB is very smart but deeply manic.  I think catastrophe is almost certain.  Also, the hype is odious. 

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[TrueCryptonaire]

Anyone else take a hit from rolling over eth into xmr above .002?

Emotional support needed: I could have had so much more, but I'm okay with what I got.

Plus another paycheck comes in 8 days.

Judging by the size of the walls that were seen, whales not done buying for quite some time.

It can be very risky putting whole percentages out on the order book like that..

Don't worry. The initial generation of early adopters paid 0.004 when emission was more than twice the current.

[macsga]

Anyone else take a hit from rolling over eth into xmr above .002?

Emotional support needed: I could have had so much more, but I'm okay with what I got.

Plus another paycheck comes in 8 days.

Judging by the size of the walls that were seen, whales not done buying for quite some time.

It can be very risky putting whole percentages out on the order book like that..

Don't worry. The initial generation of early adopters paid 0.004 when emission was more than twice the current.

I can confirm it; I was one of them

[vokain]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160218144910.htm#.VsYs9BtvDpg

Summary:Researchers have successfully simulated how a ring-shaped black hole could cause general relativity to break down: assuming the universe contains at least five dimensions, that is.

 

[boolberry]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160218144910.htm#.VsYs9BtvDpg

Summary:Researchers have successfully simulated how a ring-shaped black hole could cause general relativity to break down: assuming the universe contains at least five dimensions, that is.

 

Trying to think of a good ring signature analogy but my head hurts right now...

[aminorex]

Trying to think of a good ring signature analogy but my head hurts right now...

Ring signatures give rise to an event horizon, so that no information about your transaction can escape to be observed.  Your private key adds an extra dimension, allowing the key holder to view the naked singularity powering each XMR wallet, and observe the transactions it contains.  A view key adds a wormhole into the event horizon from ordinary 4-spacetime.

And now we have gone from "speculation" to "cloud cuckoo land".

[tifozi]

Chainalysis aims to fight cyber crime by tracking digital identities linked to digital currencies. The company's software detects suspicious activity immediately and provides investigative tools for law enforcement.

New York-based cyber crime startup inks deal with Europol, raises $1.6 mln

[ArticMine]

Chainalysis aims to fight cyber crime by tracking digital identities linked to digital currencies. The company's software detects suspicious activity immediately and provides investigative tools for law enforcement.

New York-based cyber crime startup inks deal with Europol, raises $1.6 mln

This is becoming a very crowded field. With a host of proprietary providers and software tools. Here is a good starting point.
http://www.block-chain-analysis.com/

Some interesting ones:
http://coinnections.com/
http://www.blockchainomics.com/
https://www.scorechain.com/
https://coinlab.com/
http://www.elliptic.co/
http://sabr.io/
http://www.numisight.com/
http://coinalytics.co/
http://www.quantabytes.com/

[dEBRUYNE]

Chainalysis aims to fight cyber crime by tracking digital identities linked to digital currencies. The company's software detects suspicious activity immediately and provides investigative tools for law enforcement.

New York-based cyber crime startup inks deal with Europol, raises $1.6 mln

This is becoming a very crowded field. With a host of proprietary providers and software tools. Here is a good starting point.
http://www.block-chain-analysis.com/

Some interesting ones:
http://coinnections.com/
http://www.blockchainomics.com/
https://www.scorechain.com/
https://coinlab.com/
http://www.elliptic.co/
http://sabr.io/
http://www.numisight.com/
http://coinalytics.co/
http://www.quantabytes.com/

Posted and commented here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46i6hu/new_yorkbased_cyber_crime_startup_chainalysis/

Let's see if it can get some traction.

[tifozi]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

[mathgal23]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

It is hard to tell. Since most people do not have 200BTC on an exchange to buy it all at once the seller generally has the option to pull the order as small pieces of it begin to be bought.  Of course a whale could deposit enough BTC to buy it all at once. Based on the ETH volume it is clear that there are some people (I am not sure how many) who have enough on the exchange already to take out the wall at any time.

[nioc]

In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

That's after moving up from 180 to 200.  I hear it was at 170 last night/morning.  I guess that's how my bid got filled while I was sleeping last night.  Doesn't quite sound like an exit.

Please move it down again.  

[smoothie]

Some people don't like it when I'm overly pragmatic, but I think it's important that you understand the scenarios.

• The most likely scenario is that Monero fails entirely, due to lack of funding / a major break in Curve25519 or some other cryptography / general apathy towards financial privacy.
• The second-most-likely scenario is that Monero never has a meteoric rise in value because it has no fixed emission (from 2023 onwards it becomes slightly disinflationary, <1% inflation a year) and it never achieves more than niche usage.
• A less likely scenario is that Monero does have a meteoric rise in value, not due to artificially limited emission, but due to some uptake in its use (ie. it is priced based on utility, not based on artificial scarcity).
• Perhaps the least likely (at this stage anyway) is that Bitcoin flounders and collapses at a time when Monero has achieved a degree of maturity in its development, and there is an in-rush of former Bitcoin holders (well, those whose FOMO is greater than their fear that the tail emission will never make them "rich").

Given these scenarios, if you have limited funds I would advise that you DON'T buy any Monero. If you are not comfortable with the massive risk you are taking, then DON'T buy Monero. If you want to play around with Monero then DO buy a very small amount (I assume $10 wouldn't be too much of a hit).

I endorse the advice, but must disagree with the implied case distribution estimate.   ( It is good and proper for FP, in his role, to emphasize these risks, however. )

Funding has always been tight, but even abandonment would be survivable because open source.  The curve, well... I ascribe negligible probability.  Has financial privacy ever been a greater concern for wealth holders?  Is it likely to become less of a concern?  Guess what I think.  I dare you.

I consider the resistance to volatility an asset.  Without it, we might have much more wealth concentration, pressing fair distribution concerns.

Would you guys, even though this is the speculation thread, be interested in some (daily) crossposts of salient reddit posts? I'll try to format them together in one post if interested.

Yes but it would be improper here.  On-topic moderation is in effect, and should be just, blind.

Its so absurd how many trolls constantly lie about how the xmr devs pump the price when the opposite has always been true.

The opposite as in "the devs dump the price"?

 

[smoothie]

Large price rises can be helpful, because they enable you to say things like "I just turned $13,000 into $25,000 over the weekend."  
  
That gets people's attention.

As well, we have great graphics than can help illustrate why Monero is going to be a very big deal in the future. Of note is the professional chart showing how Monero is essentially the holy grail of money. (https://i.imgur.com/E3KA0Ug)

I've been talking about crypto relentlessly for years now, and I know I've likely annoyed the hell out of some people, but enthusiasm is contagious: if you believe in Monero like I do, you need to have it too. Your enthusiasm needs to be so bright that it inspires others to want to talk about it too - that's how a movement is created.

Monero might be a very real thing, and it might be one of the greatest technological advancements in the history of our civilization, but if people don't know about it... It is meaningless. The problem we face is that Cryptonote is so intricate that it becomes a challenge to express to the average person why this matters in their life.

But it is possible. More than ever, citizens everywhere are excited about money and rethinking ways to get involved with it. I hear more stock market 'watercooler chat' now than I've heard since 2007. We need to recognize that this is not some obscure nerd toy - you have the extreme fortune of being involved with one of the largest financial networks on Earth before anyone else knows about it. Don't keep that secret to yourself!

There are a lot of great arguments to help the average person understand why this is important: "Don't you think the average wealthy individual will be interested in a secure and private financial network that lets them store their wealth where no one can touch it or track them?", "If the smartest people in the world didn't think this was possible 20 years ago, don't you think there is likely a lot of powerful interests carefully considering how to best use this powerful invention?", "People thought Bitcoin was foolish too, but it entered 2013 at $15 each and ended 2013 at $750 each", etc.

In fact, a few people have even expressed interest in owning some Monero. Of course they have gotten the standard warnings: "I'll help you, but realize this is extremely risky, and you may lose every cent you put in...." But they seem to understand the risks and want to play.

Maybe we will all lose our money, and maybe not. It's a risk, and risks are necessary in the financial world to grow. I know this though: there are few, if any, more pure and honest economic projects out there than this. The fact that it just might have the largest growth potential of any asset in the world is icing on the cake.

Don't promise people the moon: you can't promise them that. Promise them a chance to be part of the initial cadre of what may become the future financial Internet, because that is an honest statement. Let your excitement be so virulent that others catch it too. We are, whether we realize it or not, by virtue or circumstance, one of the most important people on Earth.

Let's act like it.

The part about wealthy people wanting to store their money without being tracked is probably true.

The other side of the coin is when a wealthy person looks at monero they probably see a new technology that needs to stand the test of time.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Large price rises can be helpful, because they enable you to say things like "I just turned $13,000 into $25,000 over the weekend."  
  
That gets people's attention.

As well, we have great graphics than can help illustrate why Monero is going to be a very big deal in the future. Of note is the professional chart showing how Monero is essentially the holy grail of money. (https://i.imgur.com/E3KA0Ug)

I've been talking about crypto relentlessly for years now, and I know I've likely annoyed the hell out of some people, but enthusiasm is contagious: if you believe in Monero like I do, you need to have it too. Your enthusiasm needs to be so bright that it inspires others to want to talk about it too - that's how a movement is created.

Monero might be a very real thing, and it might be one of the greatest technological advancements in the history of our civilization, but if people don't know about it... It is meaningless. The problem we face is that Cryptonote is so intricate that it becomes a challenge to express to the average person why this matters in their life.

But it is possible. More than ever, citizens everywhere are excited about money and rethinking ways to get involved with it. I hear more stock market 'watercooler chat' now than I've heard since 2007. We need to recognize that this is not some obscure nerd toy - you have the extreme fortune of being involved with one of the largest financial networks on Earth before anyone else knows about it. Don't keep that secret to yourself!

There are a lot of great arguments to help the average person understand why this is important: "Don't you think the average wealthy individual will be interested in a secure and private financial network that lets them store their wealth where no one can touch it or track them?", "If the smartest people in the world didn't think this was possible 20 years ago, don't you think there is likely a lot of powerful interests carefully considering how to best use this powerful invention?", "People thought Bitcoin was foolish too, but it entered 2013 at $15 each and ended 2013 at $750 each", etc.

In fact, a few people have even expressed interest in owning some Monero. Of course they have gotten the standard warnings: "I'll help you, but realize this is extremely risky, and you may lose every cent you put in...." But they seem to understand the risks and want to play.

Maybe we will all lose our money, and maybe not. It's a risk, and risks are necessary in the financial world to grow. I know this though: there are few, if any, more pure and honest economic projects out there than this. The fact that it just might have the largest growth potential of any asset in the world is icing on the cake.

Don't promise people the moon: you can't promise them that. Promise them a chance to be part of the initial cadre of what may become the future financial Internet, because that is an honest statement. Let your excitement be so virulent that others catch it too. We are, whether we realize it or not, by virtue or circumstance, one of the most important people on Earth.

Let's act like it.

The part about wealthy people wanting to store their money without being tracked is probably true.

The other side of the coin is when a wealthy person looks at monero they probably see a new technology that needs to stand the test of time.

The third thing is, they see the marketcap of Monero and begin to laugh.
If your networth is more than the marketcap of the coin, why on earth you should put (most or all of) your money into it?

[smooth]

Would you guys, even though this is the speculation thread, be interested in some (daily) crossposts of salient reddit posts? I'll try to format them together in one post if interested.

Yes but it would be improper here.  On-topic moderation is in effect, and should be just, blind.

It could be on topic if such posts are related to speculation. As an example fluffypony's comments about how Monero might (and even in his word, likely) fail certainly seems on topic. You can't intelligently speculate without considering the potential for negative outcomes.

[jehst]

i think you guys overestimate the chances of monero going to zero. it really doesn't need much to limp along.

here's my gut feeling of where xmr will be in 5-10 years from now:

1. xmr completely dead: 5% chance (zero development activity. no liquidity in the market. no updates. zero community left.)

2. xmr on life support: 25% (sporadic updates by one dev or a couple of hobbyists putting in 1-3 hours a week. very few people talking about it or using it. no liquidity.)

3. xmr with a small but active economy and community: 64% (pretty much where we are now. consistent development and at least one niche service like cryptokingdom or monerdice)

4. xmr with big success: 5% (one of the top coins by market cap. widely used relative to other cryptocurrencies.)

5. xmr becomes the new "swiss bank account": <1% (monero is the hot new place where rich people and corporations store enormous amounts of inscrutable wealth.)

[iCEBREAKER]

Ring signatures give rise to an event horizon, so that no information about your transaction can escape to be observed.  Your private key adds an extra dimension, allowing the key holder to view the naked singularity powering each XMR wallet, and observe the transactions it contains.  A view key adds a wormhole into the event horizon from ordinary 4-spacetime.

This is great stuff, a Diamond Mountain Cab of conceptual metaphor.

Monero is mo' nero than Darkcoin, Shadowcash, or Zcash.   

[iCEBREAKER]

The part about wealthy people wanting to store their money without being tracked is probably true.

The other side of the coin is when a wealthy person looks at monero they probably see a new technology that needs to stand the test of time.

The third thing is, they see the marketcap of Monero and begin to laugh.
If your networth is more than the marketcap of the coin, why on earth you should put (most or all of) your money into it?

Because some high networth individuals possess Ivy League caliber intellects and see where this (morally hazardous) NIRP trend is going.

EG the Winklevoss bros buying BTC at $30.

Oh wait, smoothie didn't say anything about putting "most or all" of their money into crypto.  That was just your strawman version of his posts.  My bad.

[aminorex]

i think you guys overestimate the chances of monero going to zero. it really doesn't need much to limp along.

I think you are distributing the probability mass very much like an intelligent and reasonable member of your species and culture, as informed by your specialized insight and experience.

I also think you underestimate the likelihood of the upside because of resulting biases.  (If I did not, I would be compelled to agree, which would be boring, since my own discountings are very similarly informed.) You can call it normalcy bias.  It's how normal people think, so in that sense it's healthy - until abnormal circumstances make it maladaptive.

Wow so many vapid words. To the chase then:

There are no alternatives.  Old discountings fail because socioeconomic superstructure is determined by technological infrastructure, and this technology is exquisitely tuned to the drastic social circumstances racing towards us.  Like Marx's vision of the inevitability of communism, I see the inevitability of fungible digital privacy-enabled non-inflationary decentrally antifragile currency glowing before me. It's a perfect storm a-comin'  and monero is the only lifeboat which hasn't been spiked.

When the AI tech is right, no vested interests, no legacy legal barriers, will be able to stop the self-driving car.  People don't want to die in a stupid crash or waste time with traffic laws and nonsense.  There is a way to escape that pain.  So people will take that way, pure and simple.  10 years ago such talk would have been a ludicrous fantasy in the minds of those not privy to the state of the art in decision theory, deep learning, graphical models.  Those in the know could be excused the social deviance of an accurate estimate of the long term outcome -- but only in retropect, by the vindication of history.

The One Bank ( and really, there is one, just as surely as there is a selfish gene for glyphosate resistance which dominates the North American biosphere - the One Bank is just as real and impactful ) is getting ready for a Big Reset, and you should too. When it comes is an unknown, although I estimate the central tendency as autumn, 2017 - but excellent technocrats could kick the can along for another 2 or 3 years perhaps, if they were to emerge.  No way they can drag it out to the demographic dark hour coming in 2023-2025 with verbal easings and whatever it takes.  Too many postal carriers will be exploding IEDs by then to carry out the best laid plans undisturbed.

The debt-based indenture money system was the greatest tool ever devised to subjugate the peoples of the Earth, and they actually enjoyed many benefits from that Faustian bargain, in terms of a rising tide of systemic efficiency which raised all boats, but the time-preference distortions have grown so encumbering that all the energy has been sucked out of the system.  The cake is a lie, now. A profoundly explosive change in the economic system is coming as the stabilizing bonds of systemic confidence are dissolved by the universal acid of survival instinct.  

Iterated exponential indebtedness is not something human technocrats can manage for a full human lifespan. The non-stationary dynamics of iterated diffusive maps alone justify mathematical confidence that chaotic instability is the best possible end game on fiat currency, the alternative being the peaceful stasis of death. Precious metals and crypto are the only financial assets likely to survive unscathed.  And p.m.s are just too easy to control, as the FDR and Soviet cases demonstrated.  Bitcoin?  Don't make me laugh - it hurts too much.

At least 2% in the 5th category, c'mon.  And certainly enough to hang your Kelly hat on.