[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Joshuar]

Hypothetical Question:

Not taking into consideration current adoption or first mover advantage but comparing two crypto currencies hypothetically conceived at the same time with the same particulars (emission, etc.) one with a public ledger such as bitcoin and one with a private untraceable one which one would be valued higher and why?

In my view, the private ledger one would become the dominant crypto, it most resembles "e-cash", and takes into account fungibility. I suspect in the future, Bitcoins that have been involved with scams wont be taken by vendors, since it's possible for authorities to track the bitcoins via the blockchain, and most scammers mix their bitcoins(So it'd look like the vendors who accept the tainted coins are apart of the scam).

Basically, if a private ledger currency and a public ledger one started at the same time, I believe the private ledger one would win out. However, the private ledger currency would also have to allow transparency as well. 2 in 1, instead of just 1 like the public ledger currency.

[nakaone]

Coming from professional poker (basically financed my studies with it), EV calculations regarding crypto are little more problematic since the system is not closed.

Annyway no matter what slightly different objectives risto takes, in the core his investment techniques suggested are probably not the worst, especially for newbies. The VC approach is succesful  regarding altcoins.

Regarding the prices he suggests it sounds so unrealistic, and you could be free to choose any different set of numbers (and probably even slightly different multipliers) - he is always confronted with his unrealistic assumptions, because well they sound unrealistic and out of this world.

Professional trolls   will tell you that he argues with pascals wager and that it is bad to argue this way since his ev calculations could be used for any investment. They are right except when you add an additional condition:

You have to assume that the investment has a kind of intrinsic value, which basically means in crypto that it fulfils a function that bitcoin cannot or will not fulfil in the future. You have to assume that xmr could basically be (uniquely) useful in one specific part of international finance.

Regarding that I share his opinion and see the (potentially) intrinsic value

[SmoothCurves]

I've invested roughly 5% of my crypto holdings into Monero and i'd be totally happy with $300 XMR.

[dreamspark]

If you subscribe to buy low-sell high speculation investment paradigm, it makes sense to flip the position on-off, provided that you are sufficiently smarter than the market.

 

The point being that for a smallish percentage of the overall holdings (say,20%) its not too difficult to be smarter than the market. Trading alts over a couple of years has been some of the "easiest" speculation ever. Buy when there is anything that's likely to cause a pump. Don't buy if its already pumped.  If its pumped 50% its probably a top. Sell some off and buy back in a few days/weeks time. If we as larger holders and true believers did this more then more coins would be in stronger hands, dampening the variance and allowing our other community members to not have to constantly see their investments being slashed.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Price is at 0014 and falling. Looks like everyone has secured their positions after RP's announcement, and have returned to watching and waiting.

Despite Risto's positive intentions with the announcement, we may have been better off not knowing the source of any future price increase. What may have been viewed as "renewed interest" is now just seen as "Risto pumping the price."

[UnicornFarts]

Price is at 0014 and falling. Looks like everyone has secured their positions after RP's announcement, and have returned to watching and waiting.

what was the announcement?  I must've missed it ...

[thefunkybits]

Price is at 0014 and falling. Looks like everyone has secured their positions after RP's announcement, and have returned to watching and waiting.

my question to rpietila is:

Why announce that you are buying $100K worth (or 300-400K XMR) at a higher price than now when that same amount has been bought in the past few days?

What kind of clients would give you money knowing that information?

not meaning to be rude here, but just wondering...

[Johnny Mnemonic]

He says it was to give investors a fair opportunity to get in before making his move. However, I think everyone's had more than enough time, and we might have been better off not knowing.

Another possibility is that Risto was merely attempting to create a buy panic and had no intentions of directly manipulating the price.

[stslimited]

Price is at 0014 and falling. Looks like everyone has secured their positions after RP's announcement, and have returned to watching and waiting.

my question to rpietila is:

Why announce that you are buying $100K worth (or 300-400K XMR) at a higher price than now when that same amount has been bought in the past few days?

What kind of clients would give you money knowing that information?

not meaning to be rude here, but just wondering...

you guys are noobs at this why even question it, as if this is some altruistic honesty game?

fun fact: practically all US financial regulation was created because the savvy investors in new york were taking advantage of the unsophisticated farmers in the midwest. it's really surprising to me that this shit still works "Hey this person talk about money alot he must know what he's talking about, I should listen to everything he says like it's gospel"

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I really appreciate the warning, but heres what I would do: wait longer than I originally announced so most trigger-happy, short-term speculators would start to get dumpey and when prices are near of even bellow my original announcement I would start mass-buying, boom surprise

Even if he let the price fall back to 0011 it wouldn't really make much difference when you consider the effect of buying 400 btc worth of xmr.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

you guys are noobs at this why even question it, as if this is some altruistic honesty game?

fun fact: practically all US financial regulation was created because the savvy investors in new york were taking advantage of the unsophisticated farmers in the midwest. it's really surprising to me that this shit still works "Hey this person talk about money alot he must know what he's talking about, I should listen to everything he says like it's gospel"

This is a speculation thread. Questioning it is sort of the point.

[UnicornFarts]

That's pretty unethical to his investors ... who he's obligated to look out for (not us) if he's being honest.

[thefunkybits]

That's pretty unethical to his investors ... who he's obligated to look out for (not us) if he's being honest.

Exactly the point

Rpietila has said that he needs to wait for resistance at higher prices to buy 400K XMR for his "clients", when that amount has been bought between 001 and 0016 in the past 3 days

Would you give someone money, knowing that they plan to buy in at higher prices (for whatever reason) when they could have bought lower had they kept their mouth shut?

Doesn't make sense..

[ArticMine]

That's pretty unethical to his investors ... who he's obligated to look out for (not us) if he's being honest.

That would be a tough case to make when the price has actually gone down in the last 24 hours.

[jehst]

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

I think that with the continued support of as few as 10-20 middle-class (or higher) people and one XMR core developer, we can maintain the current market cap and liquidity.

Also, don't forget that many of XMR's supporters have even bigger investments in bitcoin. If bitcoin does well, then those 10-20 middle-class XMR core-supporters become heavies. 10 heavies supporting a coin with superior technology which already has all the essentials.

I'd say that the chance of total failure is less than 20%. In that sense I'm more optimistic than you. At the same time, I'd say that the chance of a 4000 billion dollar cryptocurrency market is much less than 1%. Perhaps closer to 0.1%. In that sense, I'm more pessimistic than you. However, these subjective differences don't really change the nature of the bet.

[Wexlike]

I think Ristos intention was to give everyone a chance to increase their holdings before his clients enter the market. In the long run a healthy distribution and a healthy community is more worth than watching half of the community cry because they jumped of the train at the first train station.

Maybe I am wrong, and the main pump is already behind us. But maybe i am not.

[rpietila]

So, let this be the official announcement that the price of monero will now start rising.

We would hope the rise to be gradual, but it is very difficult to cap once it starts. Not many want to sell their precious stashes below cost. In fiat, we are still at 10-15% the cost of most holders.

Everyone who reads this is asked to keep calm and buy at most a very small amount per day, but instead be very vigilant in selling at the best opportunity. Large holders are entering in, we need them, and they need the coins!  

Trolls want to know what I think exactly concerning the timing of the rise. That is however reserved for IRC only.

Very good stuff from the core team. +1 

So, let this be the official announcement that the price of monero will now start rising.

I understand "official" here as a figure of speech because:

• Monero Core Team did not decide on making this official
• No MEW vote had been proposed on this matter
• I do not see any other Monero body that could emit such a statement

I'm sure trollers will delight to reuse this announcement. The core team and the community as a whole pride itself in not succumbing to the price drama - I'd like it to continue that way.

Okay, first:
- I had no explicit knowledge of the massive release you were about to make the hours following my statement.
Second:
- The MEW (where both you and I are officials), is not working on the paradigm of voting. We have had very few votes or control of any kind, yet have been able to accomplish a lot on the paradigm of empowerment. I don't even know how much, and none of it has required my approval to get it going. I do take pride of developing the structure that allows things to happen without my approval, because the structure was my design. In CK we are struggling with this issue still..

If I have the resources to make XMR price go up, and the intention to (commit actions that will lead to) do so, I can officially make any announcement I feel right. Until now I haven't even taken advantage of low price myself, due to a self-imposed 24 hour delay from the announcement to action.

The trolls are accusing me of manipulating the price, and they are absolutely correct. I am one of the approximately 1 million people on the planet who have enough funds to (currently) do it (and unless others of the same caliber actively step in). There is no denying this fact. The least I can do before starting to buy en masse due to these wonderful new developments, and before allocating my carte blanche wealth management clients' funds to it, and promote it to the larger circles that I advice concerning wealth management, and before reactivating my gold/silver/BTC/XMR/fiat dealership enabling XMR to be bought with fiat, etc. is to announce all of it beforehand.

At face value, it looks like I am massively shooting at my own foot here, after all my stash has been bought many times higher than the price now, and buying more just became almost impossible with the supply drying up. But I have the understanding that the value of the currency is in the network of people who use it, and right now is the time to start getting back those people who were burning for Monero last summer but have since sold due to the depressing market and development taking time. The longer we wait until revaluation, the more violent it will be and again people will get burned. Abrupt and spectacular surges always happen with the coins, let's see if we can avoid it this time.

Everybody is invited to prove me wrong in the field. To fire a bullet, enter any amount in the box and click SELL. That'll teach me    I also have a kitty of customer funds for buying OTC, contact me.

I may have a problem in writing clearly enough for everybody, so some reading comprehension is required. Above, the plan is described in sufficient detail to answer the questions presented during the last hours, and enable everyone to take timely action, if they believe me.

If not, my advice is to wait until the next pump in the exchange rate, and use the big red buttom that removes your right to participate in XMR economy and value appreciation, but credits you a (currently) meager amount of BTC in return.

[jehst]

The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. Consider that XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Also consider that only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, cluttered threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here. Finally, consider that technical analysis indicates that XMR is breaking out of a very long downtrend against bitcoin.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think Ristos intention was to give everyone a chance to increase their holdings before his clients enter the market. In the long run a healthy distribution and a healthy community is more worth than watching half of the community cry because they jumped of the train at the first train station.

Maybe I am wrong, and the main pump is already behind us. But maybe i am not.

If this is not a trap, the main pump is over for now. It did not even reach the highs of December's pump.
If I am wrong, who knows how high it get.
However I doubt Risto is going to increase his holdings. As far as I know he got all the coins he personally want already in summer 2014 (I remember he said this in Poloniex box for us, the trolls) around the time Unobtanium started its long and currently lasting bull market.

[smooth]

TrueCryptonaire, I allowed the UNO comments on both earlier occasions because it was tied to the question of supply and emission. But I'm not going to allow spamming of UNO mentions into unrelated posts. Please stop.