[XMR] Monero Speculation

[oblox]

this thread need some dreamspark serious trading input asap. i'm lost.

If your lost, don't trade. What happens now is anyones guess. The books are super stacked. I've bought back a fair chunk of my trading stash to see what happens next. Even if we go up from here I'm still not that confident it goes much higher than previous short term high of 0.00175.

0.00199

Is that your estimate on how high? Or are you trying to tell me that 0.00175 isnt the previous short term high? (If its the latter it is. Previous high of 0.019x was three months ago. Thats not short term)

Time frames are all relative. IMHO, 3 months is still short-term in nature. I've always looked at in sub-3, short, 3-12 interm, >12 long. Granted, one could also argue accelerated time horizons given the volatility and infancy of crypto.

Course they are but trying to correct me when my time frame for before xmas is clearly medium term is just obtuse. Over 3 months just isn't short term in crypto and particularly alts.

Obtuse on an opinion that further ends with the potential argument for accelerated time horizons. Interesting. It does pay to reread my post in its entirety.

I think time horizons with crypto are particularly unique due to the 24 hour nonstop trading.

No different than forex, although the currency markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world.

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[Hueristic]

this thread need some dreamspark serious trading input asap. i'm lost.

If your lost, don't trade. What happens now is anyones guess. The books are super stacked. I've bought back a fair chunk of my trading stash to see what happens next. Even if we go up from here I'm still not that confident it goes much higher than previous short term high of 0.00175.

0.00199

Is that your estimate on how high? Or are you trying to tell me that 0.00175 isnt the previous short term high? (If its the latter it is. Previous high of 0.019x was three months ago. Thats not short term)

Time frames are all relative. IMHO, 3 months is still short-term in nature. I've always looked at in sub-3, short, 3-12 interm, >12 long. Granted, one could also argue accelerated time horizons given the volatility and infancy of crypto.

Course they are but trying to correct me when my time frame for before xmas is clearly medium term is just obtuse. Over 3 months just isn't short term in crypto and particularly alts.

So disagreeing is correcting now? Lets see who is correct.

[GreekBitcoin]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

I agree, and an exchange that is solely dedicated to trade xmr and fiat, not just another pairing in one of the alt exchanges.

[onemorexmr]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

i'd love to see that, but i am fraid that if "our" exchange has the same problems as the early btc ones (eg gox, bitcoinica) that it would turn people not yet in crypto away.

i stopped buying btc because of that (and yes i know that it is my fault to leave btc/fiat on exchanges)

is it possible to use one of the existing and established ones? maybe bfx, kraken, coinbase?

[GTO911]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

If it existed, alot of my friends would have been monero holders. skipping btc entirely

[coinits]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

I agree, and an exchange that is solely dedicated to trade xmr and fiat, not just another pairing in one of the alt exchanges.

Playing the devils advocate here...

A lot of Western Countries have KYC laws which will force most of us to give up anonymity. If you try and circumvent this, the long arm of the law will start gunning for you.

Any ideas how to work around this and keep the government zombie horde off our backs?

EDIT: They do this to prevent money laundering and terrorist activities but they capture everyone in their shit net.

[dreamspark]

this thread need some dreamspark serious trading input asap. i'm lost.

If your lost, don't trade. What happens now is anyones guess. The books are super stacked. I've bought back a fair chunk of my trading stash to see what happens next. Even if we go up from here I'm still not that confident it goes much higher than previous short term high of 0.00175.

0.00199

Is that your estimate on how high? Or are you trying to tell me that 0.00175 isnt the previous short term high? (If its the latter it is. Previous high of 0.019x was three months ago. Thats not short term)

Time frames are all relative. IMHO, 3 months is still short-term in nature. I've always looked at in sub-3, short, 3-12 interm, >12 long. Granted, one could also argue accelerated time horizons given the volatility and infancy of crypto.

Course they are but trying to correct me when my time frame for before xmas is clearly medium term is just obtuse. Over 3 months just isn't short term in crypto and particularly alts.

So disagreeing is correcting now? Lets see who is correct.

Jesus whats your problem. If I say I don't think it will break the short term high of 0.00175 clearly the time frame I'm talking about doesn't include before Christmas. Arguing what constitutes short term is just arguing semantics, not price action. Just because you think short term includes before Christmas has no bearing on the point I'm making. Talk about trying to argue for arguments sake. I'm not going to argue with you about what constitutes short and medium and long term, they're opinions.

[rpietila]

Perhaps a good time to remind you that ask volume is mostly fake (meaning - placed by people who do not have interest in reducing their net position; some of them aim to make money by making markets, others are just inflating the ask side to keep the price capped).

Fake ask volume motivated by short term trading attempts to suppress the price and / or drive sellers to bid walls must always be prepared to face its nemesis: A long term buyer willing to tolerate some slippage using a market order to obtain a substantial position, followed of course by this buyer taking delivery. This is the kind of thing that can set off a buying panic as the shorts are squeezed to the wall.

Most of the asks have evaporated after the buyers showed "strength" meaning a few $10k bought...

If 175 is taken, the next level is 194.

Since that, there is no technical resistance until at about 280.

Says the man who took the time to calculate the volume-weighted trade densities in all of the prices during XMR's exchange history. This data is quite valuable and trading is fun knowing it  

Monero is still so very small. We are laughing at the guys who spent weeks in evaluating Bitcoin in 2010, with its sub-1 price history (XMR is currently at about $0.40, still 93% off its ATH made last June). From the hindsight, it does not matter if the coins were bought at $0.3 or $0.4, the important thing is to be knowledgeable enough to hold them through the subsequents bubbles and crashes over the years to come.

[rpietila]

The daily shows a nice hammer

Sorry to brag.

It's only that every down-day proves me wrong in the minds of some trolls, and every up-day is so quiet, so might as well quote myself here 

[TrueCryptonaire]

The daily shows a nice hammer

Sorry to brag.

It's only that every down-day proves me wrong in the minds of some trolls, and every up-day is so quiet, so might as well quote myself here  

obviously the trolls have a mission and their own personal interest. When the trolls are bashing it means they want to buy low.

[binaryFate]

The daily shows a nice hammer

Sorry to brag.

It's only that every down-day proves me wrong in the minds of some trolls, and every up-day is so quiet, so might as well quote myself here  

obviously the trolls have a mission and their own personal interest. When the trolls are bashing it means they want to buy low.

Talking of yourself two days ago?

[Wexlike]

So true.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The daily shows a nice hammer

Sorry to brag.

It's only that every down-day proves me wrong in the minds of some trolls, and every up-day is so quiet, so might as well quote myself here  

obviously the trolls have a mission and their own personal interest. When the trolls are bashing it means they want to buy low.

Talking of yourself two days ago?

Yes I bought in the dip.

[rpietila]

Monero has two historical accumulation zones, one is (daily volume-weighted average used) between 99k-187k, the next one starts between 273k-313k and goes to 446k-527k. Outside of these zones, very little trade has happened. Only 12.3% of XMR trade volume has been either:
- below 99k
- in between 187-273k
- above 527k.

If we take into account USD/BTC rate, the situation changes.

Also the daily emission is now about 30% lower than last summer.

My proposal for long-term accumulation is to do it cheaply as long as we stay in the current range. I am not a great fan of momentum trading and waiting for a breakout from 200k.

As I see it, despite the great reduction in asks, about 50% of the asks below 200k are still fake* (*see my prior definition of "fake").

It is dangerous to say the following (with only $100k $61k in asks until 280k) but I don't believe we'll break out to the 200k range just yet. I still have some accumulation to do for my clients, and it would be most unfortunate and possibly premature.

[dreamspark]

The daily shows a nice hammer

Sorry to brag.

It's only that every down-day proves me wrong in the minds of some trolls, and every up-day is so quiet, so might as well quote myself here 

Not quite the same when you can fulfil your own prophecy with 0.001% of your portfolio 

[bitcoin4eva]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

I agree, and an exchange that is solely dedicated to trade xmr and fiat, not just another pairing in one of the alt exchanges.

I don't think it would bring too much people to the site having just one coin in the list :-(

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

I agree, and an exchange that is solely dedicated to trade xmr and fiat, not just another pairing in one of the alt exchanges.

I don't think it would bring too much people to the site having just one coin in the list :-(

how many people come to bitstamp? In alt exchanges the vast majority of coins are shitcoins that has no interest.

[bitcoin4eva]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

I agree, and an exchange that is solely dedicated to trade xmr and fiat, not just another pairing in one of the alt exchanges.

I don't think it would bring too much people to the site having just one coin in the list :-(

how many people come to bitstamp? In alt exchanges the vast majority of coins are shitcoins that has no interest.

Well that is true, but in my opinion it would bring more visitors to the site having more coins to trade rather than just one. That's just an opinion : )

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero needs a fiat exchange...

I agree, and an exchange that is solely dedicated to trade xmr and fiat, not just another pairing in one of the alt exchanges.

I don't think it would bring too much people to the site having just one coin in the list :-(

how many people come to bitstamp? In alt exchanges the vast majority of coins are shitcoins that has no interest.

Well that is true, but in my opinion it would bring more visitors to the site having more coins to trade rather than just one. That's just an opinion : )

That would be a huge thing for XMR. Not many alts have an exchange like that solely focusing on one coin. Bitcoin has at least bitstamp + some other ones.