[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

...

I just computed the average value for June 2014 and it's ~7.9 million (rounding), so my initial guess was right.

Just to clarify I am using the peak since June 2014 not an average in my calculations.

[1715167832]

1715167832

[1715167832]

1715167832

[languagehasmeaning]

Actually by this measure Monero has done very well. If we compare peak market cap since June 2014 to current market cap.

Monero      -20%

Ethereum     -47%
Litecoin        -49%
Dodgecoin   -53%
Namecoin    -68%
Dash            -70%

What we a measuring here is the overall fall in alt-coin prices as the price of Bitcoin was falling from its 2013 peak.

How is bitcoin doing in this metric?

According to this graph (http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-market-capitalization/) it was somewhere between 7.25 million and 8.55 in June 2014. I'll take 7.9 as average for convenience. Bitcoins market cap is around 6.75 currently (taken ~450-460 as price). So that's down around 15%.

It would be interesting to see a correlation study in emission rate compared to market cap over time. Of course emission is only one of many important features of a coin.

[jehst]

...

I just computed the average value for June 2014 and it's ~7.9 million (rounding), so my initial guess was right.

Just to clarify I am using the peak since June 2014 not an average in my calculations.

That's punishing coins that had a spurt of interest or some glitch in the price for whatever reason.

[iCEBREAKER]

Still some XMR outstanding that are used for short position. I am quite confident of this because these mini-orders (< 0.0001 BTC) that appear on the trading logs / bitcoinwisdom are margin settlements. That is, the polo engine buys XMR for you (if you don't have any available) to pay your interest.

I also noticed those mini-orders.  Seems self-defeating to let the polo engine drive up with market buys the price of the thing you bet will go down.

Perhaps a clever monitoring program could watch the lending market, then use mini-order data to extrapolate outstanding shorts.  Of course that could be Sybil attacked by some jerk lending to themselves just to spread disinformation.  And we don't know how many shorts are using their own stack for interest payments.   

[mmortal03]

add to that fact that with 0.9, it will be easier to promote XMR to new users and to promote projects using XMR (such as monerodice)

I must have missed the fact that you can invest in the house on monerodice. That's pretty cool.

I just read in the FAQ that "Given how new the site is, and the risk of bugs and security issues, all withdrawals are processed manually from our cold wallet. We try and process them as quickly as possible, and thus most withdrawals will be credited within 15 minutes."

How many people have access to the cold wallet? If something ever happened to fluffypony and rznag, would there still be a way for people to withdraw their funds?

[smooth]

Still some XMR outstanding that are used for short position. I am quite confident of this because these mini-orders (< 0.0001 BTC) that appear on the trading logs / bitcoinwisdom are margin settlements. That is, the polo engine buys XMR for you (if you don't have any available) to pay your interest.

I also noticed those mini-orders.  Seems self-defeating to let the polo engine drive up with market buys the price of the thing you bet will go down.

The orders are really tiny and would take a long time to even take out one ask order. Other than creating a slightly misleading tape (for people who merely look at last tick direction without paying attention to the volume) it doesn't really drive up the market.

[smooth]

...

I just computed the average value for June 2014 and it's ~7.9 million (rounding), so my initial guess was right.

Just to clarify I am using the peak since June 2014 not an average in my calculations.

That's punishing coins that had a spurt of interest or some glitch in the price for whatever reason.

Was certainly very common in 2014 though. If it happens enough times to enough coins you can't really consider it a glitch.

[iCEBREAKER]

Still some XMR outstanding that are used for short position. I am quite confident of this because these mini-orders (< 0.0001 BTC) that appear on the trading logs / bitcoinwisdom are margin settlements. That is, the polo engine buys XMR for you (if you don't have any available) to pay your interest.

I also noticed those mini-orders.  Seems self-defeating to let the polo engine drive up with market buys the price of the thing you bet will go down.

The orders are really tiny and would take a long time to even take out one ask order. Other than creating a slightly misleading tape (for people who merely look at last tick direction without paying attention to the volume) it doesn't really drive up the market.

Yes, the micro-orders are too tiny to meet the minimum for normal trades.

But they do paint the tape and I'm sure some non-negligible percent of volume-blind bots, plus Cryptsy and Mintpal types, trade based on the 'hurr-durr buy the green sell the red' strategy.

The information being leaked by the micro-orders seems like a bigger issue tho.  Of course lenders can also share/utilize those numbers directly....

[fluffypony]

add to that fact that with 0.9, it will be easier to promote XMR to new users and to promote projects using XMR (such as monerodice)

I must have missed the fact that you can invest in the house on monerodice. That's pretty cool.

I just read in the FAQ that "Given how new the site is, and the risk of bugs and security issues, all withdrawals are processed manually from our cold wallet. We try and process them as quickly as possible, and thus most withdrawals will be credited within 15 minutes."

How many people have access to the cold wallet? If something ever happened to fluffypony and rznag, would there still be a way for people to withdraw their funds?

As long as you've set your emergency withdrawal address, yes, in the event of something catastrophic happening it'll flush out to those addresses. The remaining funds (for those that haven't set a withdrawal address) would go through a manual allocation process by a third-party (if we both got hit by a bus simultaneously) or by one of us.

[Globb0]

Could there be a realistic way where people are given eternal life by maybe "downloading" your conscious somewhere and then after you die you can "reprogram" it into something else which allows you keep living even longer?  Given that science and technology has gotten extremely complex, I think that this is possible as well.  

the problem with this is the "gap" between you dying and the uploading on the device. I just can't be persuaded that the copy will be me, although maybe that copy will tell everyone he is me.
it can even get more crazy: if you can "reprogram" a device with your consciousness, it is perfectly possible to make multiple copies of "you".
This is certainly not a solution...

edit: immortality is imho impossible because chaos theory. It's like a perpetuum mobile on a universal scale.

Slightly on topic: even the XMR blockchain will not be able to be intact forever:
What is the chance that at least one copy will be preserved forever?
Because there is a non-zero chance that all copies of the blockchain will be destroyed in the future, monero isn't "immortal".
Sad but true.

the brain can already be maintained without the body. The challenge would seem to be the "interface" else ye be trapped in a machine.

[volyova]

Reality check.


No matter how far anon tech goes the government can still fuck you if they want. Anon coins will never be legal tender so you will need to put fiat in and out and explain where that came from. Governments can't decrypt the tech but they can still control every place where you can exchange $ to BTC.


And also it's terrible for speculation as no serious trader would touch this stinky shit.



It's some form of fucked up dream-world you've made up for yourselves where you can talk about privacy and freedom trading nickels where the other libertarian sharing your views across the board will fuck you for a foot long sandwich.

XMR hotter than a Fontasy 

[obit33]

Reality check.


No matter how far anon tech goes the government can still fuck you if they want. Anon coins will never be legal tender so you will need to put fiat in and out and explain where that came from. Governments can't decrypt the tech but they can still control every place where you can exchange $ to BTC.


And also it's terrible for speculation as no serious trader would touch this stinky shit.



It's some form of fucked up dream-world you've made up for yourselves where you can talk about privacy and freedom trading nickels where the other libertarian sharing your views across the board will fuck you for a foot long sandwich.

XMR hotter than a Fontasy  

jup, cuz governments are almighty and never ever collapse under their own fiat-paper-debt-laden dead weight... historylessons, much? In the (sometimes very) long run, free market wins...

[generalizethis]

Reality check.


No matter how far anon tech goes the government can still fuck you if they want. Anon coins will never be legal tender so you will need to put fiat in and out and explain where that came from. Governments can't decrypt the tech but they can still control every place where you can exchange $ to BTC.


And also it's terrible for speculation as no serious trader would touch this stinky shit.



It's some form of fucked up dream-world you've made up for yourselves where you can talk about privacy and freedom trading nickels where the other libertarian sharing your views across the board will fuck you for a foot long sandwich.

XMR hotter than a Fontasy  

jup, cuz governments are almighty and never ever collapse under their own fiat-paper-debt-laden dead weight... historylessons, much? In the (sometimes very) long run, free market wins...

It's not even that.

Who needs privacy more than anyone to conduct their normal business? Sure, you could say drug dealers, but they are small potatoes to the biggest use case for private transactions. Governments and corporations need the protection of privacy to ensure their business doesn't become your business via journalists, spies, or competitors. Anyone who doesn't see this as the primary weakness of public blockchains, either doesn't get the argument or misses that world governments and corporations have the desire and the means to use whatever tools available to keep them beyond scrutiny. It's naive to think they would use a public blockchain and be beholden to the people when private measures are available. For God's sake, the average person is trying to cover up a drug habit, but a government is trying to cover up funding a coup that could launch them into a multi-billion dollar war if the wrong people found out--or worse, a failed war that loses their party the next three election cycles.

[jehst]

No government is going to be happy about people voluntarily switching to independent currencies, whether they are pseudonymous or anonymous. Bitcoin/Monero aren't illegal because they are basically seen as a sideshows. Insignificant. Non-threatening. Does Fontas think that bitcoin (but not Monero) would be tolerated if 10% of people adopted cryptocurrencies? Get real.

[volyova]

No government is going to be happy about people voluntarily switching to independent currencies, whether they are pseudonymous or anonymous. Bitcoin/Monero aren't illegal because they are basically seen as a sideshows. Insignificant. Non-threatening. Does Fontas think that bitcoin (but not Monero) would be tolerated if 10% of people adopted cryptocurrencies? Get real.

Tolerated? What if there's nothing they can do? And they simply have to buy in, like everyone else.

[jehst]

No government is going to be happy about people voluntarily switching to independent currencies, whether they are pseudonymous or anonymous. Bitcoin/Monero aren't illegal because they are basically seen as a sideshows. Insignificant. Non-threatening. Does Fontas think that bitcoin (but not Monero) would be tolerated if 10% of people adopted cryptocurrencies? Get real.

Tolerated? What if there's nothing they can do? And they simply have to buy in, like everyone else.

i imagine that some will buy in, some will ban, and some will do both

[pa]

No government is going to be happy about people voluntarily switching to independent currencies, whether they are pseudonymous or anonymous. Bitcoin/Monero aren't illegal because they are basically seen as a sideshows. Insignificant. Non-threatening. Does Fontas think that bitcoin (but not Monero) would be tolerated if 10% of people adopted cryptocurrencies? Get real.

Tolerated? What if there's nothing they can do? And they simply have to buy in, like everyone else.

i imagine that some will buy in, some will ban, and some will do both

RAND corp has an interesting report on digital currencies as national security threats: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3xnchr/rand_corporation_is_researching_how_to_destroy/

[onemorexmr]

very nice orderbook atm:

[nioc]

very nice orderbook atm:

Well that didn't last long

[e-coinomist]

No government is going to be happy about people voluntarily switching to independent currencies, whether they are pseudonymous or anonymous. Bitcoin/Monero aren't illegal because they are basically seen as a sideshows. Insignificant. Non-threatening. Does Fontas think that bitcoin (but not Monero) would be tolerated if 10% of people adopted cryptocurrencies? Get real.

Tolerated? What if there's nothing they can do? And they simply have to buy in, like everyone else.

Nope. Any Gov interested in taking over will just deploy their allready existing mining equipement for a 51% takeover. Guildhall/town-hall IT, administration department's workplace desktops, cloud collocations, military facilities. Probably combined with some legal/military attack on some other mining pools, to cut of the "offending hashrate". Easy. Just compare the numbers, some hundred crypto enthusiasts vs. the remaining population.

Having to buy in using your tax money? Most probably not.