[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dEBRUYNE]

Ok, As a intellectual exercise lets say your goal is to lose as much of lenders assets as possible, how would you do this and what would it cost (for optimal effect)? As an aside what could you do to hedge this action or even benefit from it?

You are asking how you could damage the lenders intentionally?  You could do it, but I don't think you could profit on it.  You would need to take them up on their loans, even at extremely high interest rates - really create a lending frenzy.  Use those loans to set up elaborate sell walls near-the-money.  Ensure you have only minimum margin requirements in this account #1. 
 
Then, with account #2 you could have to place a titanic buy order, eating through all your self-errected near-the-money walls at once and skyrocketing the price by a major % amount.  This would liquidate your account #1, and force Polo to try to repay the lenders.  But since your account #2 is still driving up the price an irrational amount the lenders would not be able to be compensated. 
 
This would cost you significantly because you would eat the losses from having account #1 liquidated even though you would end up with a substantial portion of XMR in account #2. 

Or you could just hold your private keys.

Cold blooded, as usual.  And correct.  I think once the official GUI comes out you will start seeing more people store XMR away in their own private keys.  Is that sensical or rational?  No, but it's how it will likely go down.

There is actually a bit of rationale behind, I replied to the following statement on reddit which stated something similiar:

You guys really need a gui. This is why I haven't bought in yet.

My response further down in the comment chain:

No he isn't. He might be wary of investing currently because he cannot store his coins comfortably. That is, perhaps he prefers something he is familiar with, and knows how to use (a GUI), instead of something totally unfamiliar. Also, the other options available (MyMonero, simplewallet, Moneroaddress) might simply not be sufficient for some people. Hence, they wait until the GUI is released to buy and store their coins.

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[americanpegasus]

And my amateur guess for this is by this summer, even though I have no knowledge about the development or programming of the GUI.  I know that the Monero team likes to deal in factual statements and not hype/pump things up, so I fully expect one random day for an update to drop with a beta GUI to play with. 
  
soon^soon?

[XMRpromotions]

And my amateur guess for this is by this summer, even though I have no knowledge about the development or programming of the GUI.  I know that the Monero team likes to deal in factual statements and not hype/pump things up, so I fully expect one random day for an update to drop with a beta GUI to play with. 
  
soon^soon?

If the GUI is out before Zerocash that should give Monero a lot of momentum with attracting merchants

[opennux]

Ok, As a intellectual exercise lets say your goal is to lose as much of lenders assets as possible, how would you do this and what would it cost (for optimal effect)? As an aside what could you do to hedge this action or even benefit from it?

You are asking how you could damage the lenders intentionally?  You could do it, but I don't think you could profit on it.  You would need to take them up on their loans, even at extremely high interest rates - really create a lending frenzy.  Use those loans to set up elaborate sell walls near-the-money.  Ensure you have only minimum margin requirements in this account #1. 
 
Then, with account #2 you could have to place a titanic buy order, eating through all your self-errected near-the-money walls at once and skyrocketing the price by a major % amount.  This would liquidate your account #1, and force Polo to try to repay the lenders.  But since your account #2 is still driving up the price an irrational amount the lenders would not be able to be compensated. 
 
This would cost you significantly because you would eat the losses from having account #1 liquidated even though you would end up with a substantial portion of XMR in account #2. 

Or, you could just make one big titanic market buy of something like 2000btc. The shorts would be screwed immensely, and the whale(s) with those stagger-walls would need to recover their XMRd, maybe, if they want.

[ArticMine]

.  
...

Or, you could just make one big titanic market buy of something like 2000btc. The shorts would be screwed immensely, and the whale(s) with those stagger-walls would need to recover their XMRd, maybe, if they want.

Not even close to anything that big. Taking out one or more fake sell walls could easily trigger a short squeeze. All it takes is a long term investor who does not have the time to mess around with fake sell walls and simply uses existing fake sell walls as an opportunity to acquire a position with minimal slippage.  Such an investor would naturally take delivery thereby magnifying the short squeeze.

[aminorex]

I believe polo has the right, within their ToS, to unwind trades if someone pulls shenanigans like that.

[Hueristic]

I believe polo has the right, within their ToS, to unwind trades if someone pulls shenanigans like that.

Why? All fair in free market speculation. They even warn of the possibility of losing everything you have. People want to gamble their coins then they are taking the risk, they just have to decide what that risk is worth.

[meme magic]

I believe polo has the right, within their ToS, to unwind trades if someone pulls shenanigans like that.

Why? All fair in free market speculation. They even warn of the possibility of losing everything you have. People want to gamble their coins then they are taking the risk, they just have to decide what that risk is worth.

loans have historically been low risk, trying to bring crypto out of the basement, etc...

just a few ideas

[americanpegasus]

Or, you could just make one big titanic market buy of something like 2000btc.

Or, you could just make one big titanic market buy of something like 2000btc.

 

Or, you could just make one big titanic market buy of something like 2000btc.

 

[americanpegasus]

Out of curiosity I did the math and there is a planet sized wall at 0.01 BTC which we would run into if some giga-whale attacked the Ask stack with a titan-sized 2000 BTC buy. 
 
 
 
Monero would instantly shoot up to $4.30 each in USD terms, before settling back at a new lower value (assuming the immense volume didn't keep up).  Is 2000 BTC a lot?  Yes, but not in real terms.  It's not even a million dollars.  I'll tell you guys honestly, if I were already wealthy it's exactly how I would announce my new interest in this fledgling currency. 
 
In any case, it's a fun fantasy on these low volume days - thanks for inspiring it.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Are you guys saying I need to put some (real) sell walls to avoid liqudation losses at spot + 20 %?

Looks like even the interest payments on the open short positions create demand for XMR. If all the Moneros existing would be shorted at 0.1 %, the emission of new coins would not be enough to cover the interest payments.

[TrueCryptonaire]

To be honest, I do not want Monero to rise in a fast manner. Much better is to have ultra long bull market which will exhaust the sellers and the weak handed dumpers will end up being buyers.
The sharp daily rises just indicate pump and dump and are not necessarily good for the ecosystem.
If a larger whale want to enter the game, it is better for him/her to contact one of the long term Monero fanbois and ask if we can make an OTC deal which will not harm the markets and the buyer avoids slippage.

However, the current interest rates in lending will hoover tons of Moneros from the Monero bears to my account. The interest rate is roughly the same as the emission rate. So the bear may not be too rational at this point taking short positions but I am glad to offer him/her some of my coins and if (s)he needs to buy back higher I might consider even selling some so that the market stays as smoothly rising as possible.

[rpietila]

As a matter of fact, ironically many early adopters are still under water at the current price. Those that came later were (and are still partly) favored.

^^.

You can say that CK has made early adopters better off (2,000% gain max).

XMR has not, so far (-50%).

[meme magic]

It would be nice if polo separates theor loan lengths.

People need to have the option to pick up a 30 day loan without going through 2 day non renewed loans at .001 less percent...

[newb4now]

It would be nice if polo separates theor loan lengths.

People need to have the option to pick up a 30 day loan without going through 2 day non renewed loans at .001 less percent...

Submit a ticket and ask for that.

[Indianacoin]

Currently the markets have shown good growth over the past few days at a sustainable and slow rate to allow for volumes and new capital to flow in and secure the new positions which are being taken up.

Whilst this price is encouraging and the current price movement is much more subtle, the chance that prices fall back to lower levels is ever increasing. Monero has constantly received resistance when reaching levels of 0.003 – 0.004.

[Shrikez]

I still have a feeling it is very bullish. After hitting the 165-170 support many many times without faltering the floor is slowly moving up and establishing at a higher level, currently that seems to be the 180-185 zone. I also like that the support has not been held up by some brutish wall but an elastic mass of buyers that seem to agree on accumulating.

An adventurous shorter tried to incite a little panic recently but failed miserably so far and is still at a loss. Nobody really wants to sell, this has been going on for quite a while now.

However nobody really wants to buy as well, it looks as if everyone is waiting for a whale or market signal to start pushing through the ever strengthening resistance.

If you zoom out to daily candles and 10 months history you will also notice a monstrous 7 month cup and handle forming. Is it applicable? I don't know. My TA skills are also very limited to use an euphemism.

In any way...it's crypto and this could go both ways fast. However I have rarely felt so bullish, although I don't expect crazy mooning just yet...and I'd be worried if it would climb too fast.

[Hunyadi]

I am happy to announce the first successful Zero-Knowledge Contingent Payment (ZKCP) on the Bitcoin network.

ZKCP is a transaction protocol that allows a buyer to purchase information from a seller using Bitcoin in a manner which is private, scalable, secure, and which doesn’t require trusting anyone: the expected information is transferred if and only if the payment is made. The buyer and seller do not need to trust each other or depend on arbitration by a third party.

Imagine a movie-style “briefcase swap” (one party with a briefcase full of cash, another containing secret documents), but without the potential scenario of one of the cases being filled with shredded newspaper and the resulting exciting chase scene.

An example application would be the owners of a particular make of e-book reader cooperating to purchase the DRM master keys from a failing manufacturer, so that they could load their own documents on their readers after the vendor’s servers go offline. This type of sale is inherently irreversible, potentially crosses multiple jurisdictions, and involves parties whose financial stability is uncertain–meaning that both parties either take a great deal of risk or have to make difficult arrangement. Using a ZKCP avoids the significant transactional costs involved in a sale which can otherwise easily go wrong.

In today’s transaction I purchased a solution to a 16x16 Sudoku puzzle for 0.10 BTC from Sean Bowe, a member of the Zcash team, as part of a demonstration performed live at Financial Cryptography 2016 in Barbados. I played my part in the transaction remotely from California.

The transfer involved two transactions:

    8e5df5f792ac4e98cca87f10aba7947337684a5a0a7333ab897fb9c9d616ba9e
    200554139d1e3fe6e499f6ffb0b6e01e706eb8c897293a7f6a26d25e39623fae

Almost all of the engineering work behind this ZKCP implementation was done by Sean Bowe, with support from Pieter Wuille, myself, and Madars Virza.


Read more, including technical details and links to the software at https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/02/26/zero-knowledge-contingent-payments-announcement/

Is this bad or very bad for monero?

[dEBRUYNE]

I still have a feeling it is very bullish. After hitting the 165-170 support many many times without faltering the floor is slowly moving up and establishing at a higher level, currently that seems to be the 180-185 zone. I also like that the support has not been held up by some brutish wall but an elastic mass of buyers that seem to agree on accumulating.

An adventurous shorter tried to incite a little panic recently but failed miserably so far and is still at a loss. Nobody really wants to sell, this has been going on for quite a while now.

However nobody really wants to buy as well, it looks as if everyone is waiting for a whale or market signal to start pushing through the ever strengthening resistance.

If you zoom out to daily candles and 10 months history you will also notice a monstrous 7 month cup and handle forming. Is it applicable? I don't know. My TA skills are also very limited to use an euphemism.

In any way...it's crypto and this could go both ways fast. However I have rarely felt so bullish, although I don't expect crazy mooning just yet...and I'd be worried if it would climb too fast.

Seems the price is kept in place by all the asks sitting at 200k-246k. There surely is willingness to buy, but it needs to gain some traction. Furthermore, I think most of the asks sitting in that range are from "wallguy" and simply split up into smaller portions. When we had that little spike 2 days ago the ask side was relatively flat and there was only around 420-430k in asks total.

[dEBRUYNE]

I am happy to announce the first successful Zero-Knowledge Contingent Payment (ZKCP) on the Bitcoin network.

ZKCP is a transaction protocol that allows a buyer to purchase information from a seller using Bitcoin in a manner which is private, scalable, secure, and which doesn’t require trusting anyone: the expected information is transferred if and only if the payment is made. The buyer and seller do not need to trust each other or depend on arbitration by a third party.

Imagine a movie-style “briefcase swap” (one party with a briefcase full of cash, another containing secret documents), but without the potential scenario of one of the cases being filled with shredded newspaper and the resulting exciting chase scene.

An example application would be the owners of a particular make of e-book reader cooperating to purchase the DRM master keys from a failing manufacturer, so that they could load their own documents on their readers after the vendor’s servers go offline. This type of sale is inherently irreversible, potentially crosses multiple jurisdictions, and involves parties whose financial stability is uncertain–meaning that both parties either take a great deal of risk or have to make difficult arrangement. Using a ZKCP avoids the significant transactional costs involved in a sale which can otherwise easily go wrong.

In today’s transaction I purchased a solution to a 16x16 Sudoku puzzle for 0.10 BTC from Sean Bowe, a member of the Zcash team, as part of a demonstration performed live at Financial Cryptography 2016 in Barbados. I played my part in the transaction remotely from California.

The transfer involved two transactions:

    8e5df5f792ac4e98cca87f10aba7947337684a5a0a7333ab897fb9c9d616ba9e
    200554139d1e3fe6e499f6ffb0b6e01e706eb8c897293a7f6a26d25e39623fae

Almost all of the engineering work behind this ZKCP implementation was done by Sean Bowe, with support from Pieter Wuille, myself, and Madars Virza.


Read more, including technical details and links to the software at https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/02/26/zero-knowledge-contingent-payments-announcement/

Is this bad or very bad for monero?

What about not affected at all? Ethereum is more affected by that because it is more or less a trustless smart contract using Zero Knowledge Proofs.