[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

in the long run, moneros inflation is irrelevant tho... what matter is when all top 10 coin has anonymity implemented, how would xmr will stay relevant

ASIC-resistant pure-PoW coin with many independent miners, fair launched, healthy distribution (objectively shown by high available liquidity), vibrant and inclusive open source project that demonstrably attracts developers, integrated into a privacy-centric development effort including the privacy-enhanced cryptocurrency and I2P router development, deployed and proven dynamic block size scalability, 2-year maturity.

I just looked at the top 10 coins. None have a very strong subset of these qualities. There is no risk to Monero's differentiation in the foreseeable future.

honestly i want to hear more good news from xmr community regarding their wallet, as i too once xmr holder and convert all of them when i realize xmr dev seem ignoring investors call for improvement.

I guess you are not aware of the active project underway, funded by the community, to complete development of a brand new GUI wallet. If you were I doubt you would characterize that as 'call for improvement' being ignored.

in other POV, ASIC-resistant pure-PoW CPU mineable coin are botnet paradise

Maybe it is, I don't run botnets so I don't know. I do know I personally have miners running that are slightly profitable after paying for electricity and that add to the strength and decentralization of the network. I'm hardly the only one either. Botnets probably exist, large mining farms probably exist, but they don't shut anyone out.

oh great news,  ill wait for good news from Monero wallet development then.

You can wait for a release or follow along in real time on github and the project thread at forum.getmonero.org

[1714578067]

1714578067

[1714578067]

1714578067

[bitebits]

...

So I was thinking there may be more users like me (I struggled hard but had great help from the community), who would like to support the Monero network but are not that much experienced configuring a Linux server. Therefore I would like to check if there is any interest in extending a fully hosted Monero node:

Can you sign the account for the node over?

Yes, the only thing that would need to be changed is the email address.

OK, I'll take it off your hands and keep it up. Do they accept paypal?

Yes they accept paypal as well. Send you a PM with some instructions and logon details. Nice!

I don't understand why you don't just continue to pay for it. Asking for a $4 donation every month is a ridiculous waste of your time.  Seems to me you want to sell multiple hosted nodes for $4 each to many different people  

Or simply ask for someone to take it over permanently, not just a monthly donation which is the way you worded it.

Maybe English is not your native language?

So now you are wasting your time by telling me I am wasting my time? Guess that makes your time even less valuable than mine.
I am just trying to make a positive contribution to Monero and the community on the level I can. I recommend you to do the same.

[Dotto]

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

[Quicken]

ASIC-resistant pure-PoW coin with many independent miners, fair launched, healthy distribution (objectively shown by high available liquidity), vibrant and inclusive open source project that demonstrably attracts developers, integrated into a privacy-centric development effort including the privacy-enhanced cryptocurrency and I2P router development, deployed and proven dynamic block size scalability, 2-year project and code maturity, well-defined governance, strong experienced core team with diverse skills, proven forum funding system (crowdfunding).

Very nice summary. The Monero difference.

The current consolidation phase seems quite healthy to me. It will be good for Monero long term if we can finally say a permanent farewell to the sub 200k price dips. Having said that, I should have some more funds to divert into crypto in the next couple of months. Sub 200k would be a big buy signal as usual.

[inca]

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

This market is so small it is really tempting to play myself but I know how that will end. On poloniex the leverage offered is 2.5:1? So just owning 20000 coins lets you double the bid side of the order book down to 0.0020 and also market buy another 25k coins into the ask side to keep up the pressure. The converse is true if you want the price to fall instead.

If I can conceivably move this market with my paltry holdings then imagine how easily manipulated it could be for someone with several hundred btc in XMR or simply sat on exchange.

One big green candle into 0.003 area and suddenly the chart looks like still in uptrend. One big red candle down and suddenly the world is ending.

Place your bets!

[rdnkjdi]

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

This market is so small it is really tempting to play myself but I know how that will end. On poloniex the leverage offered is 2.5:1? So just owning 20000 coins lets you double the bid side of the order book down to 0.0020 and also market buy another 25k coins into the ask side to keep up the pressure. The converse is true if you want the price to fall instead.

If I can conceivably move this market with my paltry holdings then imagine how easily manipulated it could be for someone with several hundred btc in XMR or simply sat on exchange.

One big green candle into 0.003 area and suddenly the chart looks like still in uptrend. One big red candle down and suddenly the world is ending.

Place your bets!

Ehhhh I just like Monero because at this point it's the least bad coin.  Don't care about whales ... if / when it turns into an ocean they'll be put in their proper place.  If it never does I'm sure the puddle will grow enough for me to make a profit.

It seems like I remember at buying between .0024 and .0028 almost two years ago.  This range seems like a deal to me two years later with emissions declining and the GUI release.

[Capitascism]

I'm just trying to understand how the ico and ipo coins based on lies and empty promises can get more
attention the one actually working and superior coin like MONERO? When will people learn?

[Nxtblg]

uh... u were missing the point, the point is that no one care to use Monero if there is no improvement aside from anonimity. so what if Monero has the ultimate best anonimity anonimity benefit scammer more than it benefit regular joe.

Uhhhh...actually, it benefits the black marketeer more than it benefits the average Joe. And this is where we enter a somewhat thorny zone, relating to the fate of the United States and other advanced economies.

Do you think that Donald Trump is a monster? Do you think his plan to build a wall for which "Mexico will pay for it" via confiscating remittances is monstrous? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for illegal immigrants to join a black market - a black market for remittances.

Do you think that the cashless society would be an Edward-Snowden nightmare? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for ordinary Joes to (partially) join a black market - a black market for regular goods and services that the future authorities have red-flagged. Those "regular goods and services" might be as innocuous as certain frowned-upon books. Look at the mileage that Bill Nye the Censor Guy has gotten for his proposal to jail "deniers."

It's speculative political questions like these which keep me interested in Monero. I could be wrong, and I admit that I'm a sucker for certain varieties of declinism. But all is not well in Pleasantville, and Monero - even if its use cases are solely confined to "real" black markets - can be seen as a kind of escape hatch for ordinary Joes if they need to hide what they do with their money.

[ArticMine]

uh... u were missing the point, the point is that no one care to use Monero if there is no improvement aside from anonimity. so what if Monero has the ultimate best anonimity anonimity benefit scammer more than it benefit regular joe.

Uhhhh...actually, it benefits the black marketeer more than it benefits the average Joe. And this is where we enter a somewhat thorny zone, relating to the fate of the United States and other advanced economies.

Do you think that Donald Trump is a monster? Do you think his plan to build a wall for which "Mexico will pay for it" via confiscating remittances is monstrous? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for illegal immigrants to join a black market - a black market for remittances.

Do you think that the cashless society would be an Edward-Snowden nightmare? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for ordinary Joes to (partially) join a black market - a black market for regular goods and services that the future authorities have red-flagged. Those "regular goods and services" might be as innocuous as certain frowned-upon books. Look at the mileage that Bill Nye the Censor Guy has gotten for his proposal to jail "deniers."

It's speculative political questions like these which keep me interested in Monero. I could be wrong, and I admit that I'm a sucker for certain varieties of declinism. But all is not well in Pleasantville, and Monero - even if its use cases are solely confined to "real" black markets - can be seen as a kind of escape hatch for ordinary Joes if they need to hide what they do with their money.

The "black market" arguments assume that the only source of oppression is from governments. The current reality is that a very significant amount of censorship and oppression is from entrenched corporate power. Some examples:
1) WikiLeaks suffered an economic blockade that was orchestrated illegally by Visa, MasterCard, Paypal and a host of major banks. There nothing "black market" about using Monero do an end run around an illegal corporate economic blockade.
2) Apple used DRM to censor the teachings of the Dali Lama, and has used DRM to censor all sorts of free speech. It used DRM to censor Bitcoin from 2009 - 2014 and is currently using DRM to censor Monero.
3) Amazon used DRM to censor George Orwell's 1984.
4) The MPAA and host of corporate interests tried to push the SOPA Internet censorship bill through the US Congress. When that failed they turned to waging a clandestine war against free speech and civil liberties on the Internet by attacking Google using Attorney Generals at the state level. The ultimate irony is that this attack on freedom and civil liberties was exposed as a result of the Sony server hacks. These hacks have been attributed to the Government of North Korea. The fact that even one of the most oppressive governments on the planet can strike such a worldwide blow for freedom and civil liberties illustrates the true evil in the MPAA.
I can continue but there are many "white market" products and services that are currently censored by entrenched corporate power to provide a major market for Monero .

[Nxtblg]

The "black market" arguments assume that the only source of oppression is from governments. The current reality is that a very significant amount of censorship and oppression is from entrenched corporate power. Some examples:
1) WikiLeaks suffered an economic blockade that was orchestrated illegally by Visa, MasterCard, Paypal and a host of major banks. There nothing "black market" about using Monero do an end run around an illegal corporate economic blockade.
2) Apple used DRM to censor the teachings of the Dali Lama, and has used DRM to censor all sorts of free speech. It used DRM to censor Bitcoin from 2009 - 2014 and is currently using DRM to censor Monero.
3) Amazon used DRM to censor George Orwell's 1984.
4) The MPAA and host of corporate interests tried to push the SOPA Internet censorship bill through the US Congress. When that failed they turned to waging a clandestine war against free speech and civil liberties on the Internet by attacking Google using Attorney Generals at the state level. The ultimate irony is that this attack on freedom and civil liberties was exposed as a result of the Sony server hacks. These hacks have been attributed to the Government of North Korea. The fact that even one of the most oppressive governments on the planet can strike such a worldwide blow for freedom and civil liberties illustrates the true evil in the MPAA.
I can continue but there are many "white market" products and services that are currently censored by entrenched corporate power to provide a major market for Moenro .

Good point!

[noobtrader]

uh... u were missing the point, the point is that no one care to use Monero if there is no improvement aside from anonimity. so what if Monero has the ultimate best anonimity anonimity benefit scammer more than it benefit regular joe.

Uhhhh...actually, it benefits the black marketeer more than it benefits the average Joe. And this is where we enter a somewhat thorny zone, relating to the fate of the United States and other advanced economies.

Do you think that Donald Trump is a monster? Do you think his plan to build a wall for which "Mexico will pay for it" via confiscating remittances is monstrous? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for illegal immigrants to join a black market - a black market for remittances.

Do you think that the cashless society would be an Edward-Snowden nightmare? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for ordinary Joes to (partially) join a black market - a black market for regular goods and services that the future authorities have red-flagged. Those "regular goods and services" might be as innocuous as certain frowned-upon books. Look at the mileage that Bill Nye the Censor Guy has gotten for his proposal to jail "deniers."

It's speculative political questions like these which keep me interested in Monero. I could be wrong, and I admit that I'm a sucker for certain varieties of declinism. But all is not well in Pleasantville, and Monero - even if its use cases are solely confined to "real" black markets - can be seen as a kind of escape hatch for ordinary Joes if they need to hide what they do with their money.

The "black market" arguments assume that the only source of oppression is from governments. The current reality is that a very significant amount of censorship and oppression is from entrenched corporate power. Some examples:
1) WikiLeaks suffered an economic blockade that was orchestrated illegally by Visa, MasterCard, Paypal and a host of major banks. There nothing "black market" about using Monero do an end run around an illegal corporate economic blockade.
2) Apple used DRM to censor the teachings of the Dali Lama, and has used DRM to censor all sorts of free speech. It used DRM to censor Bitcoin from 2009 - 2014 and is currently using DRM to censor Monero.
3) Amazon used DRM to censor George Orwell's 1984.
4) The MPAA and host of corporate interests tried to push the SOPA Internet censorship bill through the US Congress. When that failed they turned to waging a clandestine war against free speech and civil liberties on the Internet by attacking Google using Attorney Generals at the state level. The ultimate irony is that this attack on freedom and civil liberties was exposed as a result of the Sony server hacks. These hacks have been attributed to the Government of North Korea. The fact that even one of the most oppressive governments on the planet can strike such a worldwide blow for freedom and civil liberties illustrates the true evil in the MPAA.
I can continue but there are many "white market" products and services that are currently censored by entrenched corporate power to provided a major market for Moenro .

as usual u all assume that monero will perform as advertised. even if it does, dozen of other more capable and popular coin are implementing anonymity too.
so, i still think that monero could be irrelevant in few years if there is no improvement.

[TrueCryptonaire]

It is stated several times here and everywhere Monero will most likely fail.
That being said, anonymity is something that many people expect from a currency (my gut feeling). And I am not speaking about anonymity needs of a child molesters, con artists etc. but real normal people.

The second requirement for a currency is a community since money is nothing magical but a social contract: if person A considers sea shells as money and person B accepts this contract, then they are money for them. No matter how old fashioned it is to trade with sea shells.

When you combine those two paragraphs above you will reach probably a conclusion: Monero's success is determined by the community. If you or me start saying: "no I do not accept Monero as my personal currency", so it will not be money for you and me either. Most likely the community will abandon XMR project.

However, the bull trend can save us and give some excitement & buzz around XMR. The bull trend should be so strong that your farting will not break it.

[Monerobuyer0]

as usual u all assume that monero will perform as advertised. even if it does, dozen of other more capable and popular coin are implementing anonymity too.
so, i still think that monero could be irrelevant in few years if there is no improvement.

1) Monero's chance of working as advertised is at least as great / higher than most other alts, because the cryptography behind it has had much more review and academic study than most.  A lot of intelligent people have studied the code and the cryptography and believe that it works as advertised.

2) What are these 'dozen' of more capable and popular coins?  There only exist a handful of coins that are more popular than Monero, by any reasonable measure of community size, or by market cap.   Similarly, there are very very few dev teams that you could make a case are 'more capable' than Monero's (if any). 

3) Duh, Monero could be irrelevant in a few years without improvement.  Same with every crypto in existence, including bitcoin.  It has an active dev team making progress on many fronts.  Monero hard forked recently to incorporate many improvements into the codebase.

4) Please stop trolling us.

[CTTE]

I keep seeing all of these references to other coins "Adding anonymity features".  I don't consider anonymity as an "add-on" or a "feature"! Is it possible?  Maybe???  But I think anytime anonymity is at the core of the protocol and baked into the core code it is a lot more likely to actually bring true anonymity to users with a much less convoluted code base and based on what we've seen so far generally a more decentralized architecture.

Just my opinion...

EDIT: I tell my dev teams the same thing about performance. "Performance is not an Add-on".

[Johnny Mnemonic]

as usual u all assume that monero will perform as advertised. even if it does, dozen of other more capable and popular coin are implementing anonymity too.
so, i still think that monero could be irrelevant in few years if there is no improvement.

You're clearly an imposter, and your FUD tactics aren't fooling anyone. If you actually believed your own bullshit, you'd at least attempt to explain your position, such as why Monero wouldn't "perform as advertised" (please explain in technical detail), which currencies are "more capable" and why, and how they could simply "implement anonymity" (without breaking their social contract, or rewriting the entire protocol, among other concerns).

I think (qualified) criticism is helpful, and I'll happily back off when you start explaining your broad assertions.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

While you're at it, please demonstrate the presence of significant botnet mining in Monero, and also explain in detail how it negatively impacts Monero users. I eagerly await your reply.

[bitebits]

Slightly off topic (however XMR trading affected of course) but a really interesting and honest story about the triple (!) ShapeShift hack, written by Erik Voorhees himself:

https://news.bitcoin.com/looting-fox-sabotage-shapeshift/

[Nxtblg]

[he "black market" arguments assume that the only source of oppression is from governments....

Speaking of those, allow me to share with you a Reason article I just found:

Trump's Plan for Making Financial Black Markets Great Again

Donald Trump's plan to not only build a y-u-u-u-ge wall along the border with Mexico, but make our neighbor to the South pick up the tab for construction (at padded government rates, no doubt) is supposed to be an example of his think-outside-the-box policy genius.

And a special genius it is. Trump may have stumbled on an effective scheme for reviving flagging Mexican interest in seeking economic opportunity in the United States. And he seems to have hit on a brilliant stimulus for building underground financial markets.

[snip]

Capital controls aren't new, and people around the world have grown proficient at making sure their money gets from Point A to Point B, no matter what the Donald Trumps of the world say.

One possible workaround is that migrants could smuggle—or pay somebody else (think criminal networks) to smuggle—physical cash back to Mexico. That's a bit risky and crude, though, to the point that elegant alternatives have existed for centuries.

"Migrant workers can also send money home via transfer systems, like the hawala system in the Middle East and India, that use a series of brokers to transfer money without having to physically send it abroad," notes Vox.com's Dara Lind.

But technology has cleared the way for even easier transmission of money, Lind adds. "In Africa, for example, where transaction fees on remittances tend to be highest (13 percent of remittances get eaten up in fees), people have started sending money directly by cellphone for much lower fees than banks charge."

Or people could game Trump's restrictions by bypassing the strict letter of the rules.

"The most obvious way around the new provision would be for those who can prove legal residency to send the money for those who cannot," writes Mary Anastasia O'Grady for the Wall Street Journal. "But wire transfers are only one way of moving money. It could also be deposited in a U.S. bank and withdrawn from automatic teller machines in Mexico by intended recipients."

And even higher-tech workarounds are available to people committed to controlling and using their money as they please. In 2013, the Adam Smith Institute's Tim Worstall marveled at Forbes that "Bitcoin was a great way to beat such attempts to limit your freedom to move your money where you want it to be."

Sure enough, it wasn't long before a growing number of people in places including Argentina and China were using the relatively anonymous and difficult to track digital currency to evade capital controls and bogus official exchange rates.

"Argentines are conducting an ambitious experiment, one that threatens ultimately to spread to the United States and disrupt some of the most basic services its banks have to offer," The New York Times cautioned....

http://reason.com/archives/2016/04/19/trumps-plan-for-making-financial-black-m

[dEBRUYNE]

Most of what has been dumped in the last 30 minutes or so are shorts:

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

266k -> 256k.

[TPTB_need_war]

As far as I can see, Monero has not solved the Tragedy of the Commons in Satoshi's design. I reiterated my rebuttal to ArticMine:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1441959.msg14599446#msg14599446