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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3313059 times)
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Blazin8888
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August 22, 2016, 04:51:35 AM
 #19781

Myth of complete anonymity: It is pertinent to mention at the outset that the identity of the parties on a block-chain is not completely anonymous. The block-chain is a public ledger keeping a public account of all transactions which can be used by governments to track unusual and potentially illegal activities. In fact, block-chains are better than traditionally executed contracts which are not so easy to track.

Scholars like C. Smith have pointed out how cryptocurrency-transactions generate sufficient public data accessible by investigators on the blockchain, which connects transactions to sales and ultimately to sellers. Suppose there is an online platform for the sale of drugs, powered by the bitcoin. Buyers, sellers as well as law enforcement agencies can access this website. Granted, the buyers as well as sellers utilize anonymous signatures, but that alone does not allow them to escape recognition. Every transaction on this website shall be authenticated by ‘miners’, who are volunteers earning cryptocurrency in exchange for their services. Miners are able to determine the amount each buyer paid to the seller, and this information is publicly accessible on the blockchain. Equipped with this information, law enforcement agencies can work on tracking the IP address of the seller to identify him, and restore law and order.” (Im guessing XMR comes into play here?)

State practice: State practice also definitively reveals that blockchains can be surveilled. Australia has a nuanced system in place. The FBI in the US also effectively tracks down perpetrators of illegal activity on the block-chain network, and Ross Ulbricht’s arrest for ‘Silk Road’, an illegal drug empire built on Bitcoins, is a case in point. The Czech police too has means of tracking perpetrators, as demonstrated by the seizing of Tomáš Jiříkovský’s assets, who was suspected of using cryptocurrency to launder money. Recently, the European Cyber-Crime Centre has also taken steps to track and arrest perpetrators of crimes on block-chains, by partnering with Chainanalysis. These examples are a few of many which demonstrate that the block-chain technology can indeed be surveilled upon, and utilised to track perpetrators of crimes. 

It is true that the practice of some states such as Bangladesh, Bolivia and Russia lends support to banning of cryptocurrency (and hence, smart contracts) due to its possibility for misuse. However, most electronic systems do present undeniable possibilities for misuse, but that per se is no grounds for refraining from granting them recognition, or declaring them illegal. Technology such as wire transfers, cash withdrawal and deposit facilities are widely used to deal in black money, launder funds and finance terrorism. These activities have been criminalised and states have put tracking and pattern-detection facilities in place, but the banking platforms themselves are not illegal. In fact, these platforms are widely used by the public due to their advantages and convenience of use.

India can follow in the footsteps of countries such as Canada, Hong Kong etc, and legislate to declare activities like money-laundering, financing of terrorism and drug trafficking using block-chains illegal, and put tracking mechanisms in place to fulfil its international obligations. Omri Marian, the eminent cryptocurrency publicist, also emphasises the great innovation potential of cryptocurrency transactions, and provides noteworthy models for regulation.
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August 22, 2016, 04:53:23 AM
 #19782

I hope this is considered "on topic".  I've been mining Eth/Etc/Sia for the past few months.  Currently I'm mining Eth/Sia at around 1.5 Eth/day and 6000 Sia/day.  Sia pretty much pays for the power, so the $20 (CAD) per day with my nine GPUs is doing well enough.

Came across info the other day on Xmr for the first time -- the principles of design intrigue me and if it were reasonably profitable it would potentially be something I would mine a little more seriously.  So yesterday for a simple trial I set up the minergate GUI and also the minergate CLI and found that the performance was fairly poor on the mining rigs, and it was hitting the GPU performance of the Claymore dual mining (naturally enough, that was not unexpected.)  So I've been running it CPU-only on a couple or three boxes off and on for the past 24 hours and I've found the hashrate of around 130 h/s to be very low and probably is not even paying for the additional power consumption on the CPUs.

So my question is general: Is there a way to GPU/CPU mine this coin in a way that is profitable, or at least relatively profitable as compared to Eth and Etc?  What kind of hashrate would I need to do about $15-$20 USD per day?  To achieve that kind of hashrate, what kind of hardware would be recommended and what kind of power consumption would a person be looking at?  I know these are general questions, but I'm curious what miners are doing with this coin -- how they are setting up to make it profitable...?

Thank you so much if anyone can answer or point me in the direction of materials that might answer these questions.

aminorex
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August 22, 2016, 04:58:26 AM
 #19783

I hope this is considered "on topic".  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=653467.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1035694.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=656841.0



Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 22, 2016, 04:58:51 AM
 #19784

1000 pages, wow. Congrats everyone.
Blazin8888
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August 22, 2016, 05:01:59 AM
 #19785

http://themerkle.com/monero-becomes-the-darling-cryptocurrency-of-the-darknet/
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August 22, 2016, 05:02:12 AM
 #19786


Thanks.  I was on that mining thread yesterday and didn't find it all that illuminating regarding my above post...  I suppose I could have posted there.  Should I cross post or delete and repost?
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August 22, 2016, 05:02:38 AM
 #19787

68% of the valuation of XMRBTC is theorized to consist of dark market energy.

And similar to dark energy it's impossible to pinpoint where it's coming from. The actual dark market, or people speculating on its use there.

But if it gains critical mass, there'll be a feedback loop and it won't matter who started it.
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August 22, 2016, 05:04:31 AM
 #19788

Just realized in 2 days its the two year anniversary of this thread! Congrats @Smooth and everyone else who was here from the beginning - thank you for everything
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August 22, 2016, 05:11:30 AM
 #19789

Just realized in 2 days its the two year anniversary of this thread! Congrats @Smooth and everyone else who was here from the beginning - thank you for everything

I've been here since before block 200k. Not as early as some but it's felt like an eternity of sitting patiently reminding myself of fundamentals. Cheesy

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
aminorex
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August 22, 2016, 05:11:38 AM
 #19790

Hmm... Lots of folks asking me how to buy XMR lately.  I always start with "first, get some bitcoin..."

Will XMR reverse bitcoin's slide?  

I always end with "or just buy them from me at market rates.". About half prefer the exploration, and the other half prefer the trust and convenience of buying from me.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 22, 2016, 05:13:24 AM
 #19791

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/is-bitcoin-headed-for-a-break-in-fungibility-1450823559
http://www.coinbuzz.com/2015/03/15/is-this-startup-threatening-the-entire-bitcoin-network/
http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/03/13/new-company-to-provide-data-on-bitcoin-blockchain/
http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/10/14/two-blockchain-tech-companies-sign-deals-with-barclays/
nanobrain
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August 22, 2016, 05:18:00 AM
 #19792

Meanwhile, here comes 0.005btc, about to be tested....gonna be fun when the US wakes up and sees this.

Some serious FOMO.

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August 22, 2016, 05:26:49 AM
 #19793

Meanwhile, here comes 0.005btc, about to be tested....gonna be fun when the US wakes up and sees this.

Some serious FOMO.


...London waking up now Wink
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August 22, 2016, 06:04:10 AM
 #19794

The real price of Monero is minimum 10-15$ - at least as much as Daesh(it).
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August 22, 2016, 06:35:34 AM
 #19795

The real price of Monero is minimum 10-15$ - at least as much as Daesh(it).

Don't forget that in crypto discounting factors are generally inflated by a lot of idiosyncratic  event risks.  That seems like a pretty good equilibrium estimate for a year from now, if it sees actual use - and I do expect that it will - but under crypto-scale discounting, the NPV is probably closer to 3-4$.  

I would be unsurprised by an overshoot, say 5-6$, in the next week or two, but followed by a pullback, maybe as low as 2$.  Then a less dramatic but rapid rise to a 3-4 trading range, followed by a slow glide up into the 10-15 range on decreasing volatility - unless more markets add XMR, in which case additional, but smaller, spikes will keep volatility high, even while they push prices up faster than in the baseline expectation...towards a 20-25 range in 2 years.

I've been holding XMR in size since April of 2013 in anticipation of this event, and intend to continue holding until Monero has displaced bitcoin in all of the use-cases for which it is technically superior.  That would include most of the current uses of bitcoin. (And a price in the hundreds of 2016 USD, around 2020-2024, assuming no monetary systemic reset.)

I will slowly sell 5% of my holdings (a market making stake) on any near term spike close to $5, and try to get them back cheaper on the correction.  If that fails, I may or may not chase them uphill, depending on my ability to analyze the events of that time.  Although... I am beginning to question the value of continued market making because of the implied risk of underperforming the market.

This is my current speculation, and subject to prompt change (nonlinear) upon receipt of new information.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 22, 2016, 06:47:54 AM
 #19796

I think 5 MILLI SAT is very possible this year - if AlphaBay does follow and other markets.
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August 22, 2016, 06:53:44 AM
 #19797

The real price of Monero is minimum 10-15$ - at least as much as Daesh(it).

Don't forget that in crypto discounting factors are generally inflated by a lot of idiosyncratic  event risks.  That seems like a pretty good equilibrium estimate for a year from now, if it sees actual use - and I do expect that it will - but under crypto-scale discounting, the NPV is probably closer to 3-4$.  

I would be unsurprised by an overshoot, say 5-6$, in the next week or two, but followed by a pullback, maybe as low as 2$.  Then a less dramatic but rapid rise to a 3-4 trading range, followed by a slow glide up into the 10-15 range on decreasing volatility - unless more markets add XMR, in which case additional, but smaller, spikes will keep volatility high, even while they push prices up faster than in the baseline expectation...towards a 20-25 range in 2 years.

I've been holding XMR in size since April of 2013 in anticipation of this event, and intend to continue holding until Monero has displaced bitcoin in all of the use-cases for which it is technically superior.  That would include most of the current uses of bitcoin. (And a price in the hundreds of 2016 USD, around 2020-2024, assuming no monetary systemic reset.)

I will slowly sell 5% of my holdings (a market making stake) on any near term spike close to $5, and try to get them back cheaper on the correction.  If that fails, I may or may not chase them uphill, depending on my ability to analyze the events of that time.  Although... I am beginning to question the value of continued market making because of the implied risk of underperforming the market.

This is my current speculation, and subject to prompt change (nonlinear) upon receipt of new information.


Does that make you the very first hodler then?   Wink
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August 22, 2016, 07:04:13 AM
 #19798

Does that make you the very first hodler then?   Wink

Among the first.  I think, by default, that some of the early miners and original core are still holding in size.  The ones who supplied me my first tranches OTC.  But I don't really know.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 22, 2016, 07:05:01 AM
Last edit: August 22, 2016, 07:21:30 AM by Blazin8888
 #19799

Interesting articles for XMR peeps:

1. http://www.wired.com/1994/12/emoney/

2. http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm

3. http://www.nytimes.com/1994/12/31/us/computer-jokes-and-threats-ignite-debate-on-anonymity.html?pagewanted=all

4. http://osaka.law.miami.edu/~froomkin/articles/cfp97.htm

5. http://www.cs.utah.edu/~kmay/look/digital/Laundry.htm

6. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/1997/0908/6005172a.html  -"There is another dimension to the spread of crypto. The same mathematical tricks used to encode a message can be run in reverse, to generate a so-called digital signature. This is a computer stamp of authenticity. It can be used to prove that an electronic document originated with a particular sender, such as a bank depositor or a bank officer. Assemble a few digital signatures in a clever fashion and you have created a mechanism for digital cash;a system of electronic payments akin to Visa or MasterCard but with the added feature that it can be made anonymous." - FORBES 1997


"Hidden Values in ANON currency

Does anonymity really matter when it comes to electronic money? Some people dismiss its significance – or argue that anonymity is a bad thing.


"Speaking for myself, it would be dangerous and unsound public policy to allow fully untraceable, unlimited value digital currency to be produced," says Kawika Daguio of the American Bankers Association. "It opens up opportunities for abuse that aren't available to criminals now. In the physical world, money is bulky. In the physical world, it is possible to follow people, so a kidnapper can potentially be caught if the currency is marked, if the money was being observed on location, or if the serial numbers were recorded. Fully anonymous cash might allow opportunities for counterfeiting and fraud."

Nathan Myhrvold of Microsoft concurs. "There's a role for untraceable transactions. But it's not a panacea. Some people get very worked up about it. But there's been a very steady trend away from untraceable cash. There are cases where explicit traceability is a good thing. Like in my business expenses. I want them to trace it! All these things are there for a reason. They're not there as part of a plan by nefarious Big Brother. Look, I understand Chaum's concern to a certain degree. There's a lot of concern for privacy today. But I do worry about the idea of saving people from themselves. Just because I sign up for a traceable form of money doesn't mean I want my next-door neighbor to see my transactions."

Chaum says he has never argued for total untraceability, but sort of a constrained anonymity. "My work has been trying to establish a whole space of possibilities, bounded by pure perfect anonymity on one side and a perfect identification on the other side."

Chaum is not the only person working this turf: building on his ideas, researchers at Sandia Labs have been working on a scheme that attempts to balance anonymity with law enforcement's need to trace criminal transactions. Sort of an anonymous, digital-cash Clipper Chip. "I was concerned about some of the effects electronic cash could have on criminal activity," says Ernie Brickell, a Sandia cryptographer. "It could make it very easy for people to undertake kidnappings and extortion. It might be possible for a person to do a kidnapping and ask for money to be exchanged in a way in which there was no physical exchange – you would have no idea what country the person was in. There was also the potential that new types of criminal activity would emerge. So we looked at whether it would be possible to develop electronic cash schemes in which people could have much of the privacy that Chaum talks about, but with hooks in it, so that if law enforcement had the need to look into a transaction, it could."

Yet it is not at all clear that even this sort of limited anonymity will gain, er, currency. Users of electronic cash – the general public – will probably never be polled on whether they prefer it to be anonymous. Brickell admits that anonymity will be a hard sell. "There's going to be so much information about individuals floating around, that we want to protect privacy as much as we can," he says. "But some of the bankers feel that an anonymous system is never going to make it, or even be something that they can get behind." In fact, says Niels Ferguson, a cryptographer who works for DigiCash, "the people who decide actually often have an interest in not protecting people's privacy because they are among the potential benefactors of gathering the information."

But what of the Nathan Myhvolds, who seem to argue that they want traceability? Ferguson sighs. "Oh, the number of times I've had to argue with people that they need privacy! They'll say, 'I don't care if you know where I spend my money.' I usually tell them, 'What if I hire a private investigator to follow you around all day? Would you get mad?' And the answer always is, 'Yes, of course I would get mad.' And then my argument is, 'If we have no privacy in our transaction systems, I can see every payment – every cup of coffee you drink, every Mars bar you get, every glass of Coke you drink, every door you open, every telephone call – you make. If I can see those, I don't need a private investigator. I can just sit behind my terminal and follow you around all day.' And then people start to realize that, yes, privacy is in fact something important. Any one part of the information is probably unimportant. But the collection of the information, that is important."

Which is exactly why certain officials are licking their chops at the prospect of traceable cash. These include, of course, law-enforcement agencies, who are more than eager to see hard cash phased out. What would the drug dealers do? The money launderers? The underground economy? They will argue that granting anonymity to digital cash would provide a bonanza for kidnappers, muggers … criminals of every stripe. But consider a world where all money is electronic and traceable, and you have the most potent crime-fighting weapon in history.

The institution with the most to gain is the Internal Revenue Service. The computer age has been very good to the IRS, which now has access to any number of databases that yield reality checks on any given citizen's tax returns. Traceable cash would accelerate this process, and the tax-collection agency can't wait to take advantage of it. In a recent speech – presented on April 15, no less! – Coleta Brueck, the project manager for the IRS's Document Processing System, described some of the IRS's plans. These include the so-called "Golden Eagle" return, in which the government automatically gathers all relevant aspects of a person's finances, sorts them into appropriate categories and then tallies the tax due. "One-stop service," as Brueck puts it. This information would be fed to other government agencies, as well as states and municipalities, which would draw upon it for their own purposes. She vows "absolutely" that this will happen, assuming that Americans will be grateful to be relieved of the burden of filing any taxes. The government will simply take its due.

"If I know what you've made during the year, if I know what your withholding is, if I know what your spending pattern is, I should be able to generate for you a tax return," she says. "I am an excellent advocate of return-free filing. We know everything about you that we need to know. Your employer tells us everything about you that we need to know. Your activity records on your credit cards tell us everything about you that we need to know. Through interface with Social Security, with the DMV, with your banking institutions, we really have a lot of information, so why … at the end of the year or on April 15, do we ask the Post Office to encumber itself with massive numbers of people out there, with picking up pieces of paper that you are required to file? … I don't know why. We could literally file a return for you. This is the future we'd like to go to."

It isn't the future that David Chaum would like to go to, though, and in hopes of preventing that degree of openness in an individual's affairs, he continues doggedly in his crusade for privacy."
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August 22, 2016, 07:13:04 AM
 #19800

I think 5 MILLI SAT is very possible this year - if AlphaBay does follow and other markets.

mega-satoshi, or bit-cents, I think you mean.  And I would agree, contingent upon actual end-user uptake.  Merely having the option available does not constitute actual use.  If XMR takes 5-10% of the DNM monetary load, 0.05BTC is quite achievable this year.  That would be a relatively rapid adoption scenario, however.  Vendors really don't want to support multiple currencies, and deal with pre-release software in the state of Hydrogen Helix today.  For that reason, I think it is a lesser probability scenario.  I would estimate that it will take about a year to get to that level.  The only thing likely to accelerate the schedule is increasing AML/KYC restrictions and block-chain analysis by both exchange sites and LEOs.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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