ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[freedomno1]

I'll just leave this here...

I'm not getting into this I'll let you all do the math since it is AM releated, for once its not my grammar at issue.
All this talk about granularity's is an interesting change of pace.
But I'll throw in a hat
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246307.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1682.0
Bitcoin Wiki
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Generation_Calculator

[Lauda]

I'll just leave this here...

and the winner for the most awesome bitcoin related meme goes to..
 

[San1ty]

PT Share price has gone in a comatose state. I guess no-one bothers and just holds?

[BitCsByBit]

PT Share price has gone in a comatose state. I guess no-one bothers and just holds?

And then someone dumps 150+ shares.   

Edit: And a whole bunch more.

[culexevilman]

more cheap shares! get your coins ready!

[lophie]

I apologize for starting WWIII. Who knew?

And the winner is...

The only winning move is not to play.



How about a nice game of chess?

WWIII is Word War III, right? With all these grammatical corrections, someone may have forgotten the letter "L" somewhere...

The grammer Nazies will prevail!

[abramelin582]

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

[bitfair]

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

I think the days of worrying about a 51% attack from AM are well behind us.

My interpretation of the franchising was that AM will provide mining hardware to someone, and in return receive a percentage of the revenue based on theoretical hash rate of the hardware. It's a great way to scale up, since infrastructure for a single large mining operation becomes increasingly difficult and time-consuming to handle.

As for giving away hardware for free, I think you've lost the plot, mate!

[binaryFate]

I understood franchising the same way you did, including the fact that it allows to expand the AM network hash rate without threatening the network.
I think for the franchisee, it allows to mine without supporting the risk of not breaking-even. AM will ensure that somehow.

Where I don't follow you that much, is about the free USBs. Technically, I don't see a way to ensure that mining hardware are going to share revenue with AM.
I think AM only franchise with people that they trust, and that have collateral (shares, btc?) to ensure they are not going to run away with the hardware and keep all revenues for themselves. And I don't believe this type or relationship can scale to thousands of people around the globe easily. If there would be a technical way to make something as spread as you describe feasible, it would be truly awesome.

[finlof]

I apologize for starting WWIII. Who knew?

And the winner is...

The only winning move is not to play.



How about a nice game of chess?

WWIII is Word War III, right? With all these grammatical corrections, someone may have forgotten the letter "L" somewhere...

The grammer Nazies will prevail!

that would be grammar

[moribana]

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

I do not really get the whole point of franchising here. Presently ASICminer has only a small fraction of the network power. And the reason for this that it was much more profitable for them to sell the mining equipment than to run it. It was (and is) a simple calculation: for a couple of months it is easy to estimate how the hash rate will grow (preorders) and if you adjust the price accordingly...so that is what they did and did it right. I think that most people focus too much only on mining.

[velacreations]

I do not really get the whole point of franchising here. Presently ASICminer has only a small fraction of the network power. And the reason for this that it was much more profitable for them to sell the mining equipment than to run it. It was (and is) a simple calculation: for a couple of months it is easy to estimate how the hash rate will grow (preorders) and if you adjust the price accordingly...so that is what they did and did it right. I think that most people focus too much only on mining.

+1

The hash rate has not increased in several weeks.  AM is selling the hardware, not mining with it.  Why?  because it is more profitable to sell the hardware.

[ThickAsThieves]

Wow, 4 people that think they know statistics because they know what a distribution is and can google simple statistics concepts.  But really you aren’t thinking critically enough.

1.  Why do you guys think that AM’s rate of finding blocks is poission distributed?  It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed.  That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.

2. Many of you are missing a crucial point.  The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period.  Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand.  The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row.  I really hope you guys see why...  Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try.  Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation.  Do you see now?

You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general.  At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people.  But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.

You guys think that because you have tons of posts that you are intelligent.  But really that is not the case at all.  Just because you took intro to stats you think that you know probabilities well, but you guys are misapplying the concepts.  On top of that you act like egotistical dbags to people that are trying to help you see the error in your ways.  Really concerns me about this community, and bitcoins' longevity...  Especially you members with a ton of posts and activity.  People assume that you guys are intelligent and know things--couldn't you at least take a little bit of responsibility?

Sorry for ranting, but it really is saddening  

When I read this, I knew that within a few posts you'd have people attacking you, and they did, but that only proves your points.

Maybe you got a little emotional is subsequent comments, buy know that you aren't the only one with these concerns for our community. (Maybe you'd be happier in IRC.)

Be tempered or be broken, your choice!

[moribana]

Wow, 4 people that think they know statistics because they know what a distribution is and can google simple statistics concepts.  But really you aren’t thinking critically enough.

1.  Why do you guys think that AM’s rate of finding blocks is poission distributed?  It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed.  That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.

2. Many of you are missing a crucial point.  The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period.  Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand.  The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row.  I really hope you guys see why...  Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try.  Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation.  Do you see now?

You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general.  At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people.  But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.

You guys think that because you have tons of posts that you are intelligent.  But really that is not the case at all.  Just because you took intro to stats you think that you know probabilities well, but you guys are misapplying the concepts.  On top of that you act like egotistical dbags to people that are trying to help you see the error in your ways.  Really concerns me about this community, and bitcoins' longevity...  Especially you members with a ton of posts and activity.  People assume that you guys are intelligent and know things--couldn't you at least take a little bit of responsibility?

Sorry for ranting, but it really is saddening  

I think that the logic is this. If you assume that AM and the total network both run at a constant hash rate and things are random then the number of blocks found by AM has Poisson distribution. Then if AM finds on average B blocks in time T then the probability of finding zero blocks in any time interval T is exp(-B). If for time T no block is found and exp(-B) is a very small number then it is very unlikely that AM is running at the expected constant hash rate that was used for the calculation and one starts to worry.

Edit: I just saw that you already answered this.
And one question. If someone is hashing at a constant rate and the network rate is constant would you expect the blocks found in a given time interval to have Poisson distribution? If not I would be curious why. I haven't checked numbers but looking at btcguild statistics it seems that there is some correlation in the success rate data which would mean that the distribution is not Poisson.

[abramelin582]

I understood franchising the same way you did, including the fact that it allows to expand the AM network hash rate without threatening the network.
I think for the franchisee, it allows to mine without supporting the risk of not breaking-even. AM will ensure that somehow.

Where I don't follow you that much, is about the free USBs. Technically, I don't see a way to ensure that mining hardware are going to share revenue with AM.
I think AM only franchise with people that they trust, and that have collateral (shares, btc?) to ensure they are not going to run away with the hardware and keep all revenues for themselves. And I don't believe this type or relationship can scale to thousands of people around the globe easily. If there would be a technical way to make something as spread as you describe feasible, it would be truly awesome.

     Well i dont know much about designing chips or programming software but couldn't they just make chips that only worked with a ASICMINER mining program that they wrote. That way the miner program could dedicate 95% of the hash work to one pool that paid out to ASICMINER and the other 5% would go to the person running it.

[binaryFate]

I understood franchising the same way you did, including the fact that it allows to expand the AM network hash rate without threatening the network.
I think for the franchisee, it allows to mine without supporting the risk of not breaking-even. AM will ensure that somehow.

Where I don't follow you that much, is about the free USBs. Technically, I don't see a way to ensure that mining hardware are going to share revenue with AM.
I think AM only franchise with people that they trust, and that have collateral (shares, btc?) to ensure they are not going to run away with the hardware and keep all revenues for themselves. And I don't believe this type or relationship can scale to thousands of people around the globe easily. If there would be a technical way to make something as spread as you describe feasible, it would be truly awesome.

     Well i dont know much about designing chips or programming software but couldn't they just make chips that only worked with a ASICMINER mining program that they wrote. That way the miner program could dedicate 95% of the hash work to one pool that paid out to ASICMINER and the other 5% would go to the person running it.

Softwares, even compiled, can be modified.

[binaryFate]

Well i dont know much about designing chips or programming software but couldn't they just make chips that only worked with a ASICMINER mining program that they wrote. That way the miner program could dedicate 95% of the hash work to one pool that paid out to ASICMINER and the other 5% would go to the person running it.

Softwares, even compiled, can be modified.

Or even simpler: fake the ASICMINER pool. The software think it's mining for AM but it's actually mining for you.

Yeah, there will always be some ways to trick the system... That is why franchising works only within a "continued" relationship, with trust and/or collaterals involved.

[velacreations]

The hash rate has not increased in several weeks.  AM is selling the hardware, not mining with it.  Why?  because it is more profitable to sell the hardware.

They're developing new hardware. No reason to add more old hardware. My guess is that they will deploy it while selling the older one (which actually might be profitable for buyers, as it could be sold at a low price without causing a loss to AM - they paid for themselves already).

Meanwhile, they are missing out on a lot of mining revenue.  We're now going on several weeks that the hash rate is stagnant (or dropping) and the network % is dropping.  We're talking thousands of btc of lost revenue in the last month.

To make that up, they're gonna have to sell a lot of hardware, and they need to do it sooner rather than later.

Are the new blades out yet?  Are they hashing and/or for sale?

Developing new hardware is great, but taking advantage of the CURRENT opportunities is important, too.

[abramelin582]

Well i dont know much about designing chips or programming software but couldn't they just make chips that only worked with a ASICMINER mining program that they wrote. That way the miner program could dedicate 95% of the hash work to one pool that paid out to ASICMINER and the other 5% would go to the person running it.

Softwares, even compiled, can be modified.

Or even simpler: fake the ASICMINER pool. The software think it's mining for AM but it's actually mining for you.

    So then my dream for ASICMINER can't come true   Thank sucks. There's no way to develop a chip that would share it's hash power with the operator and ASICMINER? If someone could figure out away to do this it would not only be good for the producer of them but it would be great for the network as a whole.
     Anyway thanks for the critique guys guess i gotta put more thought into it, i just don't get how else you franchise mining? How do you think he plans on keeping his franchisees honest and paying him for running the hardware?  

[binaryFate]

Well i dont know much about designing chips or programming software but couldn't they just make chips that only worked with a ASICMINER mining program that they wrote. That way the miner program could dedicate 95% of the hash work to one pool that paid out to ASICMINER and the other 5% would go to the person running it.

Softwares, even compiled, can be modified.

Or even simpler: fake the ASICMINER pool. The software think it's mining for AM but it's actually mining for you.

    So then my dream for ASICMINER can't come true   Thank sucks. There's no way to develop a chip that would share it's hash power with the operator and ASICMINER? If someone could figure out away to do this it would not only be good for the producer of them but it would be great for the network as a whole.
     Anyway thanks for the critique guys guess i gotta put more thought into it, i just don't get how else you franchise mining? How do you think he plans on keeping his franchisees honest and paying him for running the hardware?  

You check how much blocks franchisee find, and whether it fits expectations. Or you set up a private pool and you do the same check but with shares. That is one of the reason I believe why it is done in China: it is much easier with people you know, that you see irl.