ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Rebelution]

EDIT:  Never said I knew how to calculate, just that DnT's calcs were clearly wrong.

OK, well you've managed to confuse me again. When you wrote:

Calculations to support these probabilities?  They do not seem accurate to me.

I thought you'd calculated your own results and had already compared them to D&Ts - otherwise how would you know if they looked accurate or not?

It's called a back of the envelope calculation and common sense.

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[empoweoqwj]

Technically he didn't have to refund such a mistake. I am 0.0005 BTC poorer per share I own because of his damn integrity!

wow - you must be fun to have as a friend 

[ning]

In the world of Bitcoin, the positive value of -200BTC is beyond our wildest dream. Luckily, we got that for free.

[David Chen]

In the world of Bitcoin, the positive value of -200BTC is beyond our wildest dream. Luckily, we got that for free.

I guess you are from China,right?

[ning]

In the world of Bitcoin, the positive value of -200BTC is beyond our wildest dream. Luckily, we got that for free.

I guess you are from China,right?

Physically, no; originally, yes.

[hcburger]

1.  Why do you guys think that AM’s rate of finding blocks is poission distributed?  It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed.  That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.

Block discovery is still Poisson distributed.
According to Wikipedia: "[...] the Poisson distribution [...] is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event."
What matters is the average rate. It does not matter that the rate fluctuates.
So we do have a Poisson distribution, though we don't know the average rate exactly.

2. Many of you are missing a crucial point.  The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period.  Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand.  The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row.  I really hope you guys see why...  Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try.  Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation.  Do you see now?

Using your coin flipping analogy: Why not flip the coin 500 times? 5000? An infinite number of times? This is uninteresting. Given very long time periods we can expect any number of unlikely events (e.g. Boltzmann brains).
What we are interested in is a given 6 hour period.

[supert]

I also stated I think Flotes' calculations are reasonable but a bit low.  Please read the coin analogy to understand my principle principal issue with the DnT's conclusions.

Since we are correcting people's english...

[freedomno1]

I'll just leave this here...

I'm not getting into this I'll let you all do the math since it is AM releated, for once its not my grammar at issue.
All this talk about granularity's is an interesting change of pace.
But I'll throw in a hat
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246307.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1682.0
Bitcoin Wiki
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Generation_Calculator

[Lauda]

I'll just leave this here...

and the winner for the most awesome bitcoin related meme goes to..
 

[San1ty]

PT Share price has gone in a comatose state. I guess no-one bothers and just holds?

[BitCsByBit]

PT Share price has gone in a comatose state. I guess no-one bothers and just holds?

And then someone dumps 150+ shares.   

Edit: And a whole bunch more.

[culexevilman]

more cheap shares! get your coins ready!

[lophie]

I apologize for starting WWIII. Who knew?

And the winner is...

The only winning move is not to play.



How about a nice game of chess?

WWIII is Word War III, right? With all these grammatical corrections, someone may have forgotten the letter "L" somewhere...

The grammer Nazies will prevail!

[abramelin582]

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

[bitfair]

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

I think the days of worrying about a 51% attack from AM are well behind us.

My interpretation of the franchising was that AM will provide mining hardware to someone, and in return receive a percentage of the revenue based on theoretical hash rate of the hardware. It's a great way to scale up, since infrastructure for a single large mining operation becomes increasingly difficult and time-consuming to handle.

As for giving away hardware for free, I think you've lost the plot, mate!

[binaryFate]

I understood franchising the same way you did, including the fact that it allows to expand the AM network hash rate without threatening the network.
I think for the franchisee, it allows to mine without supporting the risk of not breaking-even. AM will ensure that somehow.

Where I don't follow you that much, is about the free USBs. Technically, I don't see a way to ensure that mining hardware are going to share revenue with AM.
I think AM only franchise with people that they trust, and that have collateral (shares, btc?) to ensure they are not going to run away with the hardware and keep all revenues for themselves. And I don't believe this type or relationship can scale to thousands of people around the globe easily. If there would be a technical way to make something as spread as you describe feasible, it would be truly awesome.

[finlof]

I apologize for starting WWIII. Who knew?

And the winner is...

The only winning move is not to play.



How about a nice game of chess?

WWIII is Word War III, right? With all these grammatical corrections, someone may have forgotten the letter "L" somewhere...

The grammer Nazies will prevail!

that would be grammar

[moribana]

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

I do not really get the whole point of franchising here. Presently ASICminer has only a small fraction of the network power. And the reason for this that it was much more profitable for them to sell the mining equipment than to run it. It was (and is) a simple calculation: for a couple of months it is easy to estimate how the hash rate will grow (preorders) and if you adjust the price accordingly...so that is what they did and did it right. I think that most people focus too much only on mining.

[velacreations]

I do not really get the whole point of franchising here. Presently ASICminer has only a small fraction of the network power. And the reason for this that it was much more profitable for them to sell the mining equipment than to run it. It was (and is) a simple calculation: for a couple of months it is easy to estimate how the hash rate will grow (preorders) and if you adjust the price accordingly...so that is what they did and did it right. I think that most people focus too much only on mining.

+1

The hash rate has not increased in several weeks.  AM is selling the hardware, not mining with it.  Why?  because it is more profitable to sell the hardware.

[ThickAsThieves]

Wow, 4 people that think they know statistics because they know what a distribution is and can google simple statistics concepts.  But really you aren’t thinking critically enough.

1.  Why do you guys think that AM’s rate of finding blocks is poission distributed?  It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed.  That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.

2. Many of you are missing a crucial point.  The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period.  Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand.  The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row.  I really hope you guys see why...  Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try.  Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation.  Do you see now?

You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general.  At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people.  But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.

You guys think that because you have tons of posts that you are intelligent.  But really that is not the case at all.  Just because you took intro to stats you think that you know probabilities well, but you guys are misapplying the concepts.  On top of that you act like egotistical dbags to people that are trying to help you see the error in your ways.  Really concerns me about this community, and bitcoins' longevity...  Especially you members with a ton of posts and activity.  People assume that you guys are intelligent and know things--couldn't you at least take a little bit of responsibility?

Sorry for ranting, but it really is saddening  

When I read this, I knew that within a few posts you'd have people attacking you, and they did, but that only proves your points.

Maybe you got a little emotional is subsequent comments, buy know that you aren't the only one with these concerns for our community. (Maybe you'd be happier in IRC.)

Be tempered or be broken, your choice!