ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Kouye]

ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share.

I agree 100%.
And I'm willing to let you get off this adventure on a positive note.
I'll take all your shares for 0.6BTC each.
And let you brag about how you fucked me, later.

Deal?

[Vycid]

ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share.

I agree 100%.
And I'm willing to let you get off this adventure on a positive note.
I'll take all your shares for 0.6BTC each.
And let you brag about how you fucked me, later.

Deal?

I obviously don't own any shares of AM, tard. I own puts because I maintain a short position.

Also, don't take quotes out of context like that. That's a seriously jackass move.

[Vycid]

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.

If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.

It's not fear, uncertainty, OR doubt. It's math and logic.

Obviously you are new to investing.

You cannot say it's a rough estimate than claim it to be "math" and "logic" later. Until you have all the financial sheets backing up your math, it remains as "a rough estimate". I would suggest taking a look at CoinTerra's thread before saying they're "better off buying CoinTerra's hardware."

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

[Franktank]

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

No, my point was that the initial data is an estimate in itself. After the initial 3 auctions, no one (apart of Bitfountain & board members) know total sales and how much was passed on as the weekly dividend portion. Additionally, no financial numbers regarding R&D, hardware manufacturing costs, current farm maintenance costs, and future data center(s) acquisitions have been announced. Without know what remaining funds are devoted to what, theoretical extrapolation can go only go so far.

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

I honestly wouldn't expected any pictures until they've received their chips. Perhaps it's just my view on things but until they have chips to share/prove to the rest of the community, the jury's still out on if they can manufacture the product. For instance, I have no problem admitting that Bitfury currently has the edge on everyone right now. I'm sure you'll have a counterpoint to this post so I'm going to settle that we'll agree to disagree.

[Vycid]

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

No, my point was that the initial data is an estimate in itself. After the initial 3 auctions, no one (apart of Bitfountain & board members) know total sales and how much was passed on as the weekly dividend portion. Additionally, no financial numbers regarding R&D, hardware manufacturing costs, current farm maintenance costs, and future data center(s) acquisitions have been announced. Without know what remaining funds are devoted to what, theoretical extrapolation can go only go so far.

Agreed. $1.50/GH is - as I said - a rough value. My valuation is not really dependent on that value being accurate, since I use general values for the profit margin instead of precise costs per gigahash (which will change for Gen 2 anyway).

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

I honestly wouldn't expected any pictures until they've received their chips. Perhaps it's just my view on things but until they have chips to share/prove to the rest of the community, the jury's still out on if they can manufacture the product. For instance, I have no problem admitting that Bitfury currently has the edge on everyone right now. I'm sure you'll have a counterpoint to this post so I'm going to settle that we'll agree to disagree.

No - you're right. The jury IS still out, there are no promises. But there are a lot of positive indications for Cointerra (certainly enough to overlook some novice marketing), and a 90% level of certainty would mean that the expectation of competition should be 90% priced into the stock price, right? That hasn't been realized, as far as I can tell.

[VolanicEruptor]

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

No, my point was that the initial data is an estimate in itself. After the initial 3 auctions, no one (apart of Bitfountain & board members) know total sales and how much was passed on as the weekly dividend portion. Additionally, no financial numbers regarding R&D, hardware manufacturing costs, current farm maintenance costs, and future data center(s) acquisitions have been announced. Without know what remaining funds are devoted to what, theoretical extrapolation can go only go so far.

Agreed. $1.50/GH is - as I said - a rough value. My valuation is not really dependent on that value being accurate, since I use general values for the profit margin instead of precise costs per gigahash (which will change for Gen 2 anyway).

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

I honestly wouldn't expected any pictures until they've received their chips. Perhaps it's just my view on things but until they have chips to share/prove to the rest of the community, the jury's still out on if they can manufacture the product. For instance, I have no problem admitting that Bitfury currently has the edge on everyone right now. I'm sure you'll have a counterpoint to this post so I'm going to settle that we'll agree to disagree.

No - you're right. The jury IS still out, there are no promises. But there are a lot of positive indications for Cointerra (certainly enough to overlook some novice marketing), and a 90% level of certainty would mean that the expectation of competition should be 90% priced into the stock price, right? That hasn't been realized, as far as I can tell.

nice logic can we have some more??

[Vycid]

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

[tinus42]

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  

[Vycid]

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!

[Vexual]

$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

[101111]

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!

Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?

[Vycid]

$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!

Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?

I'm not sure how ridiculous I sound, but you definitely sound a little mad.

[stslimited]

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever

sounds like my kind of party

how did he get filled on those puts?

[FNG]

Is anyone else tempted to buy up the exchanges to ruin Vycid's day?

[Vycid]

Is anyone else tempted to buy up the exchanges to ruin Vycid's day?

Be my guest. Hope you have deep pockets and no regard for the money in them.

I frequently am told that "2 BTC is a bargain and I'm buying up as much as I can!", so frankly I don't see why you shouldn't hop on board!

[101111]

$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!

Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?

I'm not sure how ridiculous I sound, but you definitely sound a little mad.

No, not mad. There used to be lot's of intelligent conversation here, but now it's just littered with your FUD. You might as well have your own thread.

[creativex]

No, not mad. There used to be lot's of intelligent conversation here, but now it's just littered with your FUD. You might as well have your own thread.

+1

He's trying WAY too hard to be taken seriously. Ignored.

[jmutch]

No, not mad. There used to be lot's of intelligent conversation here, but now it's just littered with your FUD. You might as well have your own thread.

+1

He's trying WAY too hard to be taken seriously. Ignored.

+1 for Vycid starting his own thread....

By the way networks probably passed 1petahash. Celebration time!

[Vycid]

$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!

Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?

I'm not sure how ridiculous I sound, but you definitely sound a little mad.

No, not mad. There used to be lot's of intelligent conversation here, but now it's just littered with your FUD. You might as well have your own thread.

Right. Intelligent conversation like the pages and pages of "TO THE MOON!" and "when are we going to hit 10 BTC??", followed by "WHY DID THE SHARE PRICE DROP???"

The appearance of a contrarian opinion was a warning sign to those who weren't keeping their heads in the sand.

[Vexual]

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?

Sale profits.