ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Mabsark]

The price can only go higher if things aren't somehow derailing due to something completely unforeseen.

well, if chips are being sold for $ which are then converted to BTC and distributed as dividends, the price of BTC going up (potentially) will have a downward force on dividends, thus on share price.

Infact, I remember reading here, last year, friedcat or someone else saying "miners make only sense to be priced in bitcoins", which makes sense since they will produce bitcoins... Why are they being sold for dollars now?

AM isn't selling miners, it's selling chips and as Canary pointed out, it costs dollars to produce those chips

[smilence]

You two didn't understand Spinoff.

Foundry takes USD or BTC doesn't matter.

Here is the question:

The chips price is calculated by BTC or USD ?

like Spinoff said: "the price of BTC going up (potentially) will have a downward force on dividends"

If chips price is calculated by BTC, then no downward force on dividends.

 

[elmwar]

I believe you guys are assuming a BTC price per chip would stay constant.  June chips wouldn't produce as much as May's and would not be worth as much BTC.  Therefore price would have to lower and dividends would be affected.  However, the USD cost is the same from month to month.  If value of BTC goes up, there should be more orders and a premium price. 

I think FC felt it was easier to give a range in USD and tie that to production costs.  But, in the end it's 6 of one and half dozen of the other.

[kaerf]

I believe you guys are assuming a BTC price per chip would stay constant.  June chips wouldn't produce as much as May's and would not be worth as much BTC.  Therefore price would have to lower and dividends would be affected.  However, the USD cost is the same from month to month.  If value of BTC goes up, there should be more orders and a premium price. 

I think FC felt it was easier to give a range in USD and tie that to production costs.  But, in the end it's 6 of one and half dozen of the other.

That is essentially pricing in bitcoin. If the USD price per chip increases as the exchange rate increases then it is the same as pricing in bitcoin. However, customers don't like to see their prices going up, so psychologically pricing in bitcoin is better if the exchange rate goes up.

However, if priced in bitcoin and the exchange rate goes down, AM makes less USD. Therefore, it is safer for AM to price in USD since their costs are in USD. Of course if you price in bitcoin you could increase bitcion prices if the exchange rate drops, but then you face that psychological problem again.

[101111]

If the btc price moves significantly FC could reallocate chips to wherever it is most profitable: direct chip sales, franchising, or mining.

[jimmothy]

I believe you guys are assuming a BTC price per chip would stay constant.  June chips wouldn't produce as much as May's and would not be worth as much BTC.  Therefore price would have to lower and dividends would be affected.  However, the USD cost is the same from month to month.  If value of BTC goes up, there should be more orders and a premium price. 

I think FC felt it was easier to give a range in USD and tie that to production costs.  But, in the end it's 6 of one and half dozen of the other.

That is essentially pricing in bitcoin. If the USD price per chip increases as the exchange rate increases then it is the same as pricing in bitcoin. However, customers don't like to see their prices going up, so psychologically pricing in bitcoin is better if the exchange rate goes up.

However, if priced in bitcoin and the exchange rate goes down, AM makes less USD. Therefore, it is safer for AM to price in USD since their costs are in USD. Of course if you price in bitcoin you could increase bitcion prices if the exchange rate drops, but then you face that psychological problem again.

All this talk about pricing in btc vs usd is useless.

FC will sell the chips for exactly the max price people are willing to pay regardless of what currency is displayed.

What FC will never do (which many seem to think is an option) is pricing in btc without adjusting for btc value change.

"Psychologically" pricing in btc will return less profit than usd no matter which way the value of btc swings because it will either end up too cheap (value of btc down/less profit per sale) or too expensive (value of btc up/less sales)

[minerpumpkin]

Really, the US-$/BTC problem has been discussed and addressed by fc before (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg5025133#msg5025133, 2))

fc simply prices the chips in US $ because that is a currency you can declare and compare some value over time. It also depends on the BTC price how much miners are willing to pay. Effectively this is something that's stabilizing itself. Furthermore, it is protecting fc from sheer price drops or increases. Hedging.

In the end a lower BTC price means increased dividends BTC wise in the short term.

[Lincoln6Echo]

Soo now we will have lower BTC prices and people are selling their AM shares on Havelock. 

[lophie]

Soo now we will have lower BTC prices and people are selling their AM shares on Havelock. 

The market has phases, this one is called price discovery. The scary part is that it already considering the future. The buyers are ppl who agrees that AM will accomplished that, The sellers disagree and scared their pants off.

Here is why I am personally bullish. The prices where more when the doubt was kinda justified, Now it is less even though alot of clouds cleared up. People selling now will really regret it... (Unless they are cashing in on a bigger fish, then pm me some tips )

my opinion only.

[necro_nemesis]

There's little sense to the stocks behaviour. The news was about as good as could be anticipated and then the price went down. IMHO those people that are selling after that news really didn't know what their expectations were in the first place and only trade based on the rising and falling of the stock. The stock could have been worth near nothing if Gen 3 didn't function, yet they were willing to pay higher prices. Now that it's certain the chips are worthwhile they are selling. Where does that fit into the risk/reward equation? It doesn't.

I believe stocks price discovery is simply people "Chasing one's tail".

The company will discover it's price and it eventually won't be strictly the sum total of foreseeable dividend revenue IMHO. This is the company taking hold for the future and it includes a piece of that future.

[wasubii]

Cheap shares whoop!!

Glad i saved those BTC for a rainy, cheapy sharey day

[jdany]

Seriously, I've been on these forums for over a year - and this is the first time I've really been struck with how intelligent the recent wave of AM analysis has been.   @lophie & necro

[wasubii]

Seriously, I've been on these forums for over a year - and this is the first time I've really been struck with how intelligent the recent wave of AM analysis has been.   @lophie & necro

Sheeeeeeet,

and I've been on this forum too long - i can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not...

[gomei]

 

Soo now we will have lower BTC prices and people are selling their AM shares on Havelock. 

The market has phases, this one is called price discovery. The scary part is that it already considering the future. The buyers are ppl who agrees that AM will accomplished that, The sellers disagree and scared their pants off.

Here is why I am personally bullish. The prices where more when the doubt was kinda justified, Now it is less even though alot of clouds cleared up. People selling now will really regret it... (Unless they are cashing in on a bigger fish, then pm me some tips )

my opinion only.

[minerpumpkin]

We wanted to submit a few followup questions, I'm proposing the following, does anyone have amendments or critique?

- When can we expect the financial report that's supposed to coincide with the next round of dividends?
- With the switch to selling chips, can we expect dividends to be paid out on are "more monthly" basis?
- What capacity of gen 3 hardware is supposed to be used for franchised mining?
- What are the current approximate terms of franchised mining, i.e. how is AM and the shareholders profiting from it?
- Are there any current plans of improving the PR; maybe bi-weekly short summaries or a PR person (board member?)? Are question sets like this an option, maybe once a month?

[rudi]

We wanted to submit a few followup questions, I'm proposing the following, does anyone have amendments or critique?

- When can we expect the financial report that's supposed to coincide with the next round of dividends?
- With the switch to selling chips, can we expect dividends to be paid out on are "more monthly" basis?
- What capacity of gen 3 hardware is supposed to be used for franchised mining?
- What are the current approximate terms of franchised mining, i.e. how is AM and the shareholders profiting from it?
- Are there any current plans of improving the PR; maybe bi-weekly short summaries or a PR person (board member?)? Are question sets like this an option, maybe once a month?

- What is the estimated timeline for gen4?
- What are the requirements for becoming a franchising partner of AM? What can be done to include as many potential partners as possible?

[bitfair]

We wanted to submit a few followup questions, I'm proposing the following, does anyone have amendments or critique?

- When can we expect the financial report that's supposed to coincide with the next round of dividends?
- With the switch to selling chips, can we expect dividends to be paid out on are "more monthly" basis?
- What capacity of gen 3 hardware is supposed to be used for franchised mining?
- What are the current approximate terms of franchised mining, i.e. how is AM and the shareholders profiting from it?
- Are there any current plans of improving the PR; maybe bi-weekly short summaries or a PR person (board member?)? Are question sets like this an option, maybe once a month?

Will AM operations face complications due to the unstable regulatory environment in China? If so, how are these complications being mitigated?

[minerpumpkin]

We wanted to submit a few followup questions, I'm proposing the following, does anyone have amendments or critique?

- When can we expect the financial report that's supposed to coincide with the next round of dividends?
- With the switch to selling chips, can we expect dividends to be paid out on are "more monthly" basis?
- What capacity of gen 3 hardware is supposed to be used for franchised mining?
- What are the current approximate terms of franchised mining, i.e. how is AM and the shareholders profiting from it?
- Are there any current plans of improving the PR; maybe bi-weekly short summaries or a PR person (board member?)? Are question sets like this an option, maybe once a month?

Will AM operations face complications due to the unstable regulatory environment in China? If so, how are these complications being mitigated?

IIRC, friedcat already stated multiple times something in the lines of "We're facing no problems. If we do, we're flexible and shift our operation elsewhere, no problem at all"

[rudi]

We wanted to submit a few followup questions, I'm proposing the following, does anyone have amendments or critique?

- When can we expect the financial report that's supposed to coincide with the next round of dividends?
- With the switch to selling chips, can we expect dividends to be paid out on are "more monthly" basis?
- What capacity of gen 3 hardware is supposed to be used for franchised mining?
- What are the current approximate terms of franchised mining, i.e. how is AM and the shareholders profiting from it?
- Are there any current plans of improving the PR; maybe bi-weekly short summaries or a PR person (board member?)? Are question sets like this an option, maybe once a month?

- Is AM considering a gen 3.1 which fixes the problems of the current node size before going to a lower nm process size (similar to Intel's tick-tock)?

[bitfair]

Will AM operations face complications due to the unstable regulatory environment in China? If so, how are these complications being mitigated?

IIRC, friedcat already stated multiple times something in the lines of "We're facing no problems. If we do, we're flexible and shift our operation elsewhere, no problem at all"

As far as I remember, the previous comments were:
1) That Bitfountain would register on an island were there is a higher degree of "financial freedom" (but no confirmation of that actually having happened)
2) Made before it was clear that AM would need to exchange large sums into BTC to pay dividends
3) Made long before the recent bout of regulatory instability

So while it may have been addressed earlier (much, much earlier, if memory serves), I believe it's a pertinent question. Since the storm has worsened, I'd really just like to hear once again that it's all under control.