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1701  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: March 18, 2023, 10:24:28 AM
Tu nie chodzi o to gdzie jest dostępne BUSD do handlu (chociaż tu tez pewnie USA ma coś do powiedzenia), a głównie o to gdzie leżą jego rezerwy i w jakiej walucie. A USA jak im ktoś zajdzie za skóre to potrafią całe państwa kastrować z rezerw (Rosja od agresji na Ukrainę ma zamrożone 300 mld$ w rezerwach - połowa tego co mieli). Więc z zamrożeniem rezerw stablecoina też problemów by nie mieli. Dlatego może CZ nie walczy, bo wie, że to walka z wiatrakami a wszystko co uda się wypracować z dnia na dzień może być zniszczone przez gierki polityczne (jak atak na połowę biznesu paxos, zostawienie drugiej połowy i reszty stablecoinów w tym USDC)

Nie do końca chodzi tylko o to gdzie rezerwy sa trzymane, teoretycznie Binance mógłby pewnie trzymać rezerwy dolarowe np w chińskim banku albo trzymać rezerwy w obligacjach dolarowych gdzieś poza USA. Właśnie chyba bardziej chodzi o to gdzie BUSD będzie dostępne do handlu. Czyli musimy patrzeć na powód dla którego Paxos dostał szlaban na emisje nowych tokenów. Jeżeli powodem jest to że BUSD w jakiś dziwny sposób łapie się  jako security (i jeżeli ten zarzut się utrzyma) to naturalną konsekwencją będzie zakaz handlu BUSD w części, lub w całych stanach i pewnie w częsci Europy.

Ale szczerze to ja nawet nie udaję że wiem o co chodzi. Ewidentnie wygląda to wszystko na jakąś rozgrywkę USA-Chiny.
1702  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Good history brings confidence on: March 17, 2023, 11:16:46 PM
If you want to share an article with no own commentary, we have a Press board for that: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=77.0 (make sure to stick to the posting format there)

Making posts like this is nothing short of spam and can get you banned.

1703  Economy / Economics / Re: Another bank?! | First Republic Bank stock halted for volatility on: March 17, 2023, 10:51:30 PM


Bankers Bingo anyone?

I'm seeing some circulating rumours that Credit Suisse is also to go down soon but haven't yet seen any concrete analysis on how would that happen. I'm yet to do my homework.

More collapses seem inevitable, they haven't learned anything from 2008.

1704  Bitcoin / Press / [2023-03-15] Forbes - How Africans Are Using Bitcoin Without Internet Access on: March 17, 2023, 10:31:01 PM
An interesting read from 2 days ago on how bitcoin transactions can be done using USSD protocol instead of the internet. It's more of a novelty as currently less than 3,000 users and this form of sending information is not encrypted, therefore not very safe - but still interesting.

How Africans Are Using Bitcoin Without Internet Access

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/03/15/how-africans-are-using-bitcoin-without-internet-access/

Quote
There’s a growing population of Africans without reliable internet access that are still using bitcoin for peer-to-peer transactions thanks to a solution called Machankura.

In 2022, South African software developer Kgothatso Ngako built a tool, Machankura, for accessing bitcoin despite the continent’s mobile internet connectivity challenge. It offers a way to access the Lightning Network through an Unstructured Supplementary Service Data interface, utilizing mobile phones’ Subscriber Identity Module telecommunication network. USSD is similar to Interactive Voice Response. (...)
1705  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Declaration of cryptocurrencies in the UK on: March 17, 2023, 10:16:01 PM
Just to clarify - it's not like they'll be forcing people to disclose their crypto-holdings, but it's just that taxable gains will be reported separately in the Self-Assessment form. So not much of a change and no idea how they have estimated this will bring an extra Ł10 mils to the budget. Maybe they're hoping that people who previously didn't bother to report profits from crypto gains will be more likely to do that if the form explicitly asks for such. Makes some sense tbh

This will be effective from April 2024
1706  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: March 16, 2023, 07:38:04 PM
I don't quite agree with your statement. Each of us uses a different strategy in both sports betting and casinos. Think about it - even playing without a strategy is a strategy that ultimately leads to winning or losing. In general, a professional bettor who sticks to his strategy, in the long run will be more productive than a bettor who bets, as he thinks, without any strategy.

You're contradicting yourself a little bit here.
Is playing without strategy a strategy or not?

And don't conflate strategy with profitability. As mentioned over a million times in this thread already - having a strategy doesn't guarantee profits. In fact, in most cases, it guarantees losses (for classic casino games). With that in mind, I can easily imagine a casual, for-fun gambler outperforming a strategy-focused one in "productivity" (aka losing less money).

1707  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: 📝[Discussion topic] Overview of Bitcointalk Signature-Ad Campaigns📝 on: March 16, 2023, 07:24:46 PM
R.I.P. ChipMixer

What a bummer. They had probably the most prestigious signature campaign in the history of this forum.
But there's no mention of operators getting arrested, so who knows, maybe we'll see a ChipMixer 2.0 at some point...

55 participants. ChipMixer was in 3rd place in terms of the number of slots, only the Roobet campaign (60 participants) and Duelbits campaign (112 participants) are larger. The only thing is, I don't know how many participants represent Stake campaign.

Do you guys know if anyone has ever compiled any historical stats on signature campaigns, i.e. longest running, the biggest in terms of number of participants, highest paying etc?

If not, is there any source that could be used to get the historical data to produce such stats? The official thread has been pruned with lots of old posts missing (i.e. from between 2014-2017)
1708  Other / Archival / Re: ✅ [ANN] [banned mixer] | Bitcoin Mixer | Bitcoin Tumbler | Since 2019 ✴️✴️ on: March 16, 2023, 07:14:39 PM

Looks like the biggest mixer has been seized by Europol: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/15/germany-and-us-seize-over-46m-crypto-tied-to-chipmixer-investigation-europol/
I didn't expect they would craft such wide-spread operation with multiple countries involved. Allegedly almost $50 millions (in bitcoins) have been seized.

As much as it is a great opportunity for smaller mixers like Coinomize to fill the gap and capture a larger share of the market - it's also a sign to never let your guard down. So be careful out there guys.

The articles don't mention if anyone has been arrested though, so hopefully operators are safe.

Nevertheless, it's the end of an era.
1709  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: March 16, 2023, 06:57:58 PM
jestem w grupach Coingape i Cointelegraph na Telegramie, wrzucaja takie aktualizacje ze wszystkimi najważniejszymi informacjami z ostatniego dnia, tygodnia, łatwo szybko nadrobić

oczywiscie nie wspominam juz o profesjonalnosci tych artykułów, ale takie zestawienie daje dość szybkie rozeznanie w tym co się działo na rynku ostatnio

Dzieki, sprawdze. O cos takiego wlasnie mi chodzi, podsumowanie najwazniejszych wydarzen w pigulce, a jak cos wydaje sie bardziej interesujace to mozna sie bardziej zaglebic itp.

(...) w skrócie paxos ma zakaz emitowania nowych BUSD od Departament Usług Finansowych w Nowym Jorku (NYDFS). Czyli marketcap może iść tylko w dół.

Binance sie poddało i wyraźnie rezygnuje z BUSD i nawet wspierania płynności na tej parze:
(...)

O paxosie wiem. Ale jak na razie likwidacja BUSD nie jest jeszcze oficjalna choc wydaje sie kwestia czasu.
Teoretycznie Paxos moze jeszcze obslugiwac istniejace tokeny, o ile sie nie myle. Binance moglby tez teoretycznie zastapic Paxosa kims innym, ale pewnie musieliby szukac poza zasiegiem wplywow USA, wiec bedzie ciezko.

Ze stablecoinow Binance calkiem zrezygnowac nie da rady, wiec najpewniej skoncza z regulowanym USDC. Choc szkoda by bylo.
1710  Economy / Gambling / Re: SwC Poker RELAUNCH ♣️♣️ BITCOIN POKER 3.0 ♣️♣️ Win✅ Mac✅ Android✅ HTML5✅ on: March 16, 2023, 06:36:26 PM
I'm sure SwC has also prepared promotional or marketing campaigns as well as several other ways to gain more loyal and new customers.
Regarding budgetary funds in carrying out promotions or marketing, they must already have it and everything has been prepared.
They already have a casino that has been running successfully until now so income in their business or profits can be obtained, moreover, the owner of this casino must also have a lot of money that can be used at any time to carry out a development or other things that can make a casino they are advancing rapidly.
In fact, I do not really agree with using jackpot funds to be used for casino marketing because the existence of a large jackpot fund can also be one of the factors that can attract gamblers to use SwC with the aim of chasing the jackpot.

You are making assumptions on them having loads of money, which could be true or not, whereas I have pointed out one of the option to obtain more marketing funds.
You also make assumptions on owner having lots of money - even if that's the case, the goal of sustainable business is to make money for itself, i.e. marketing pool should be built up from profit from operations.

So what if the jackpot is huge if no one had won it in years. If something seems impossible to achieve, it loses its appeal. They could slash it in half and it'll still be huge. And they could use that money to increase activity, and, in turn making jackpot pool growing at a higher rate.
1711  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Researching Bitcoin for a Presentation - coming here to fact check on: March 15, 2023, 09:11:28 PM

What hard fork do you mean exactly?


Thanks for asking. I'm want to address the 2017 events as factually and sans conclusions as possible. I just want to give facts and let people come to their own conclusions.

Here is what I have so far...

'In 2016 there was a scaling conflict within the Bitcoin community addressing the need to accommodate more transactions. The community could increase the size of each block or defer smaller more frequent transactions to a second layer of the network.'

'Soon after August 1st of 2017 the segregated witness ( or SegWit ) update was activated. A hardfork followed eventually resulting in several more forks and projects with varying views. Ultimately, those that wanted a smaller blocksize won the conflict and this what the market has accepted as Bitcoin.'

What do you think?  

I think that event was actually a "hard fork" not happening. Depends on how we define the term. If we assume that hard fork is a radical change to the protocol of Bitcoin's blockchain - then it wasn't really a hard fork, as the BCH and other forks have indeed introduced radical changes the blockchain, but those changes were made to their new brands of blockchain, not to the Bitcoin blockchain.
So it's not like the Big blockers tried to push their new fork as Bitcoin.

But yes, all that Big Vs Small blocks civil war was definitely a significant episode in Bitcoins history. It exposed some ugliness and some dirty plays, but also had some bright sides, and all seems to end up quite well.

1712  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: March 15, 2023, 08:51:32 PM
in every casino betting game there are usually many names for the strategy, for example the popular martingale and maybe there are others, but for sports betting you don't need such a strategy because it requires luck even if you are an expert at predicting sports. usually what requires luck is gambling such as lotteries or sports betting. that's what I know while playing gambling  Wink

Almost everything in life requires some element of "luck". Even going to regular work, you're relying on some luck (or lack of bad luck) to net get struck by the lightning or not get hit by a bus.
Not only you can apply betting strategies to sports betting, but, as the odds are somewhat judgemental and are not purely based on maths, there's a bigger chance that the strategy will be successful, as compared to the classic casino games.
1713  Economy / Economics / Re: How SVB fall going to affect bitcoin, crypto in general? on: March 15, 2023, 08:42:29 PM
At first Bitcoin reacted negatively, as it declined to $20k, then it reacted positively and reached $26k, as I write this post it fell again to $24.5k. So it's hard to tell were the price will be when this drama is over.

The question is how much of that positive movement can be attributed to Binance reducing their exposure to USD and converting $1 billion worth of BUSD into native crypto. The other question is - what happens when they finish converting? Will we tank or will this trigger an uptrend?
1714  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: March 15, 2023, 08:30:22 PM
Tytanowy napisał że Binance likwiduje BUSD i to prawda, 1 miliard dolarów z jakiegoś funduszu (chyba) ratowania rynków krypto (poprawcie mnie jak sie mylę) w BUSD zostanie wydany na BNB, BTC i ETH właśnie


OK, widocznie zle zrozumialem, wyglada na to ze Binance po prostu przeznacza 1 miliard BUSD (z " Industry Recovery Initiative funds") na podratowanie rynku (albo po prostu boja sie miec za duzej ekspozycji na dolary), ale o co chodzi z "likwidowaniem" BUSD? Macie jakies zrodlo? Nic mi nie wyskakuje na ten temat na necie.

W te parę dni wydarzyło się więcej niż w ostatni rok Smiley Wymieniając na szybko to, upadki 3 banków w usa, depeg USDC, pozew kucoina, eth jako security według stanu nowy jork, nowy podatek dla kopaczy w usa, powiększony podatek od zysków z krypto w usa. Masz co nadrabiać Smiley

Nom, chyba musze wrocic do starego zwyczaju robienia porannego przegladu prasy heh
1715  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: March 15, 2023, 08:12:47 PM
However, when you gamble here, you also end up getting a chance to get free faucet (doesn't require gambling), then free lambo ticket, and free weekly ticket, and free reward points all at the same time as well. That means you are actually getting so much in price of just one, and it doesn't even require you to lose, if you gamble 100 dollars and win that bet, that is all you need, you just got 100 dollars wagered even if it was a win.

As they say: There's no such thing as free lunch. Sure, there is a free faucet and and free WoF spins, but at the end of the day the site needs to generate profit to be able to continue to operate. To get some meaningful amount out of freebitco.in you either need to risk your money (dice, betting or just keeping your funds deposited to earn interest) or at least invest your time to to promote the site and try to get a lot of referral sign ups. Chances of getting rich from just taking advantage of free features are rather slim.
1716  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Researching Bitcoin for a Presentation - coming here to fact check on: March 14, 2023, 11:38:03 PM
(...)
Gonna share the salient historical events over the last 10 years, please add any I am overlooking:

* The hard fork
(...)

What hard fork do you mean exactly?

What would you say defines Bitcoin?

There's no clear answer to this one. Hashing power dominance is very flawed definition, so is the majority of nodes. The lazy answer would be that Bitcoin is defined by wide community consensus, but then we'd have to define what's "community" exactly.

What would you say is the best concise ( yet factually accurate ) explanation for how Bitcoin works?

You are skeptical of Bitcoin, your intelligent but are not interested in becoming a dev or reading pages apon pages of text ( yet ) to understand how it works. You are bombarded with information from all sides, your attention is taken for granted and abused, everyone is claiming doom and gloom trying to convince you of their thing ...and it would be a part time job to try and qualify and validate all of it. you just want concise objective facts.

I like 3Blue1Brown's video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBC-nXj3Ng4 - but it is a bit technical and of course, not concise, lol.


I personally liked this old video by James D'Angelo explaining the concept of Bitcoin's private keys. Easy to grasp and easy to digest even by non tech-savvy people:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZloHVKk7DHk
1717  Economy / Economics / Re: How SVB fall going to affect bitcoin, crypto in general? on: March 14, 2023, 09:19:20 PM
The customers aren't the issue that I'm concerned of because the FDIC already would have insured up to 250k of deposits to begin with as per their own guarantee. What about the uninsured creditors? Their money is completely gone and there isn't any indication that they'll have remedy with the federal government (not that I think they should). The issue this creates is that there's a lot of companies out there that don't have liquidity who need it.

The FDIC $250k insurance was almost meaningless in this case. According to the Financial Times almost 96% of client deposits were not covered by insurance, as the SVB's client base was dominated by start ups and venture capital backing them.

But as mentioned above, regulators refused the bail-out but, at the same time, promised that customers (of both, SVB and Signature bank) will regain access to their finds.

It's all a confidence game at this point. If people lose confidence and do another bank runs, the financial system could run into much bigger trouble.
1718  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: March 14, 2023, 09:01:13 PM
Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

Not true, there are plenty of betting/gambling strategies, including martingale, reverse-martingale, card-counting, using kelly criterion etc. The problem is, using strategy doesn't necessarily mean making profit.
The fact that there's (almost) always an element of luck, doesn't mean that all gambling is "pure luck" as you put it. It's all abut trying to find opportunities when the edge is on your side.
Good example is sports betting - to determine odds of an event, bookies have to rely on statistical analysis, and sometimes those could be wrong (e.g. not everything is factored in). So it's possible to spot and take advantage of such opportunities from time to time.
1719  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: March 14, 2023, 08:49:40 PM
Bitcoin ruszył w swój rajd o 18:20 bez jakiegoś newsa. Sam z siebie robiąc 10%
O 5:12 w nocy CZ ogłosił, że likwidują BUSD i zamieniają na BNB, BTC, ETH
O 5:42 wykonali przelew:
https://etherscan.io/tx/0x84ca583046bf011fa040eb9da219e9397d32d54bda7ea99d548a9cdf0a996b4d

Od tamtej pory bitcoin zrobił kolejne 10%. tu się ślad urywa więcej nic nie wiadomo. 980 mln $ wpłynęło na binance hot wallet "binance 14" na którym jest obecnie 1.2 mld $.

Z tego co wiem, to CZ nie obiecywał transapentości w zakupach onchain a ostrzegał, że duży kapitał może latać po sieci, by uniknąć fudu, że binance został zhakowany i ktoś zabrał 980 mln $.

Dzieki za info, czlowiek byl zajety przez pare dni i nie mial czasu sledzic wiadomosci a tu takie rewelacje. Az zajrzalem z ciekawosci na Binance, jak na razie BUSD jeszcze nie skonwertowany, i zadnego oficjalnego maila jeszcze nie przyslali.
Z nieciekawych wiadomosci, ponoc Skrill konczy wspolprace z Binance i nie beda w stanie obslugiwac wplat/wyplat w GBP, przynajmniej dopoki nie znajda dostawcy. Ale to ponoc tylko ok 1% ich transakcji fiat.
1720  Economy / Gambling / Re: SwC Poker RELAUNCH ♣️♣️ BITCOIN POKER 3.0 ♣️♣️ Win✅ Mac✅ Android✅ HTML5✅ on: March 14, 2023, 08:39:46 PM
Any plans on how to grow the site?

They have busy and quiet days just as any other sites. But a well-designed promotional/marketing campaign could definitely help drive more people in.

No idea if SwC have any marketing funds lying around to spare, but maybe re-structuring the jackpot requirements to something more achievable could help, together with shifting some funds from the jackpot pool to the marketing fund. Then maybe use it to run a series of guaranteed prize tournaments and start giving away entry tickets i.e. as a reward for social media engagement or simple promo tasks, small contest etc.

Just my 2 cents.
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