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1901  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla's Q1 SEC Reveale holding $2.48 Billion Bitcoin on: April 30, 2021, 05:32:31 PM
Tesla's purchase and HODL of bitcoin may not be so much an investment.

As it is acquiring inflation protected assets to counteract expansion of the US money supply. As a hedge against potential future hyperinflation. Everyone assumes the US stock market is too big to fail. Immune from negative conditions associated with overprinting fiat. Tesla may be one of very few corporations taking steps towards protecting its stock value in the event of catastrophic collapse.

The real question could be why other US corporations are not taking similar steps to insulate and protect themselves from growing inflation concerns. They could accumulate and stockpile gold or silver the way central banks do. Or buy bitcoin like Elon Musk and tesla.
1902  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BitCoin: Too Big to Fail? or Too Big to Jail? - FED Goes Full Retard or Ponzi? on: April 30, 2021, 05:00:43 PM

With a market cap of over $1.1 trillion, Bitcoin now weighs more than the combined market cap of the four largest U.S. banks:

    JPMorgan — $461B
    Bank of America — $334B
    Wells Fargo — $174B
    Morgan Stanley — $151B


Bitcoin is bigger than banks?   Shocked



Do we have a few zeros in the derivatives exposure column.

Stablecoins like tether are required to have a larger proportional reserve than fractional reserve banks around the world. Which could be an interesting point. If anyone were interested in points these days.


the FED doesn't allow capitalism to work, it perpetuates crony capitalism, where MUSK is kept alive, and say an unlucky business is destroyed because it doesn't belong to the inner circle 'club'.


One of the first moves the Trump administration made post 2016 was eliminating tax credits and subsidies previously offered for buying one of Elon Musk's electric cars. Musk hasn't been a recipient of crony capitalism under the fed.. On the contrary short sellers have tried to murder tesla stock on at least two separate occasions.

The SEC, fed and others have tried to lockdown Elon Musk. Under multiple investigations and attempts to undermine Musk's authority at TSLA. Not to mention the numerous smear attempts and hit pieces published by the media.
1903  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Communities on: April 30, 2021, 04:37:22 PM
There have been similar regional projects like aurora coin which dates back to 2014.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auroracoin

Small towns and villages have experimented with issuing, regulating and utilizing their own cryptocurrencies in a retail capacity. There aren't many updates that I remember seeing published on these crypto based social movements unfortunately.

Financial systems in many regions of the world are built upon centralized monopolies, high fees, industry wide stagnation. Which creates an environment where alt currencies can have real world value and thrive.
1904  Economy / Economics / Re: How a digital EURO may look like on: April 29, 2021, 07:17:14 PM
One issue with the euro is the EU's inability to effectively restructure and reformat the economy of greece to prevent it from being a debt liability to positive cash flow EU states. Greece's troubled economy is constantly being bailed out by the EU. Over the long term the arrangement could threaten to drag other EU states into unsustainability along with greece. #Brexit and the UK abandoning the EU further stressed this condition.

One of the more interesting ideas for CBDCs was venezuela's proposal to back their CBDC with oil. Central banks could initially back their digital currencies with oil, gold or other commodities. That could attract the type of mass adoption they're looking for. Based on what we've seen from china's initial CBDC proposals. Which included digital currencies with expiration dates and otherwise inferior strings attached in contrast to cash or competing technologies. It doesn't appear that the talent designing and developing the 1st draft of CBDC have much background in marketing.
1905  Economy / Economics / Re: Tax-sheltered crypto on: April 29, 2021, 06:35:37 PM
Is renouncing ones citizenship. Immigrating to a country where 0% taxes are levied on crypto holdings. And becoming a digital nomad an option?

Record levels of americans have renounced their citizenship in recent years. Many immigrated to puerto rico where they pay only 4% income taxes. That would appear to be the optimal solution for anyone interested in cutting taxation. As well as a trend that is increasingly becoming popular over time. Especially with Biden's recent proposal to increase capital gains taxes to 40% for those with larger holdings.

I think the philippines were reported to collect 0% taxes on crypto to encourage digital nomads residing in the country. There probably are nice places with better healthcare, lower taxes and less social instability than the USA atm.
1906  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla still an unprofitable automaker on: April 29, 2021, 06:27:39 PM
I honestly don't understand why people valuate Tesla at such high levels.

It virtually makes no sense. People are essentially pricing in decades worth of earnings growth into an unprofitable company. Automakers that have been making profits for decades, like BMW and Mercedes, are somehow outpriced in terms of market cap.

A 50 P/E ratio is considered to be bubble territory. Tesla currently has a four digit P/E of 1,100. Think about that.



Think about the scale of projected future EV market growth.

Future government requirements for a percentage of cars produced by manufacturers to be electric vehicles.

Tesla's expected sales growth when cybertruck production begins in 2022. Tesla's presentations on their new battery technology and licensing plans.

TSLA's current price doesn't so much reflect its current market value, as it does its projected worth in the future.

1907  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla still an unprofitable automaker on: April 28, 2021, 04:51:14 PM
^^^^ So any idea when this chip shortage issue will be resolved? I have seen a few posts in social media, which claims that the shortfall in supply is going to persist for a few more months. Also, I have seen a statement from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (world's largest producer of chips?), which claims that they have stepped up their production. However, supply chain issues remain for the chip manufacturers in Taiwan.


IMO circumstances behind parts shortages are entirely political.

They're not a natural result of market mechanics, supply chains or any normal shortfall.

In the past when the media offered false explanations for events like this. Many immediately saw through it.

It shows the growth and evolution of how information is disseminated. Now they're offering no explanation or information at all. The few explanations I've seen offered were so horrible/laughable I think people will realize something strange is happening. If they haven't already.

Quote
Chinese Manufacturers Begin Production of Cryptocurrency Mining Dedicated SSDs As Chia Coin Gains Popularity

The rise in popularity of Chia Coin, a brand new cryptocurrency, is expected to cause major SSD & HDD shortages around the globe, as we reported yesterday.

Given the increasing demand for SSD and high-performance storage devices, Chinese manufacturers have commenced production of mining dedicated SSDs which should be hitting retail soon.

https://wccftech.com/dedicated-cryptocurrency-mining-ssds-in-production-chia-coin-rise/
1908  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin wasn’t created to make you rich. It was created to Enslave U & Track U on: April 28, 2021, 04:26:58 PM
Bitcoin isn't 100% perfect. Nothing ever is. Nitpicking self perceived imperfections as justifications for mass condemnation of something doesn't improve circumstances or elevate anyone. Wanting to condemn crypto in its entirety for a slew of pyramid schemes from 2012. Assuming these negatives outweigh the positives, is premature at best and self destructive at worst.

The real question is: would the world be a better place without bitcoin, than it is with it. I think we can all agree that cryptocurrencies empower society. They give people crucial access to options and tools they need to solve problems related to finance and money.

Would anyone care to contend that perceived negatives associated with crypto outweigh the positive benefits. Innocent until proven guilty is a great mandate to deter recent trends where media and anonymous unnamed sources have unfairly been elevated to being judge, jury and executioner.

There are many investigations and penalties directed at banks who laundered money for shady russians, terrorists, drug cartels and rogue states. All indications are banks and paper money being the #1 safe haven for criminals who typically prefer to avoid the paper trail associated with digital or crypto based transactions.

SHA and the elliptic curve cryptography bitcoin is built on were different technologies last I checked.

If your goal is to write a damning piece on crypto could you please do it without automatically triggering the "so easy a caveman could do it" responses most of us have read in response to the hundreds of "bitcoin was created by the NSA/FBI/CIA/government" threads posted here over the last 10'ish years.
1909  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla still an unprofitable automaker on: April 28, 2021, 03:59:39 PM
Tesla is still an unprofitable automobile manufacturer.



....

Quote
Chip Shortage Continues to Wreak Havoc on New Car Production

General Motors believes that this problem could account for a global unit shortage of 216,000 vehicles, as reported by Reuters, which would equate to as much as $2 billion in lost profits. Similarly, Ford indicated in February that the lack of chips was estimated to cut into profits as deep as $2.5 billion by forcing manuacturing reductions by up to 20 percent. In its quarterly financial report, Stellantis did not comment on the losses it expected (if any) from the shortage, calling it a "big unknown."

https://www.thedrive.com/news/39619/chip-shortage-continues-to-wreak-havoc-on-new-car-production

Parts shortages forced tesla to shutter factories and cease car production.

Quote
Tesla Shut Down Fremont Factory Temporarily Over Parts Shortages, Musk Confirms

2/26/2021

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/tesla-shut-down-fremont-factory-temporarily-over-parts-shortages-musk-confirms/ar-BB1e1LDn

That played a key role in tesla failing to be profitable.

1910  Economy / Economics / Re: April 15th Price Drop, Hash Rate Drops As Blackouts Instituted In China on: April 27, 2021, 02:18:40 PM
Your partially right, but like the blind men with the elephant, sort of wrong.

COAL is a major problem, but the real problem is historically in CHINA from the begin the miners were near HYDRO, but in recent years everywhere here in ASIA, the rivers are running dry
In order to keep these miners running, and remember we're talking about the equivalent of entire country of power wasted like say Argentina, in terms of powering these BITMAIN miners that burn 3,000KWH each, and they can be lined up to the moon.

Something has to be done, in order to mine bitcoin do we kill everyone in CHINA with smoke from coal??

I know the BITCOIN community don't care about human life, they only care about HODL, and mis-information and lies and get rich quick.

The CCP has to make a decision, they go slow. Jack Ma owner of ANT ( all hw & mining ops ) is under house-arrest, CCP has taken over in the coming months we'll learn what they intend to do with the BITCOIN "PROBLEM".


....

Quote
Chinese companies to build 700 coal plants in and outside China

Citing data gleaned from the world’s biggest developers of coal-fired power plants, Urgewald found that of all the new coal generation expected to go online over the next decade, Chinese companies will build nearly half of it. Specifically, that means 700 new coal plants, with most to be built in China, and about a fifth outside the country, according to figures provided by Urgewald and reported by the New York Times:

https://www.mining.com/chinese-companies-build-700-coal-plants-outside-china/

The issue has always been state subsidies funding coal energy.

China could choose to subsidize more wind, solar or hydroelectric power. They chose to subsidize coal. Bitcoin is not part of the equation.


What "evidence"? You've posted nothing except your own conspiracy theories with no actual facts to back them up. You're asserting that China is taking actions with an intention to manipulate the bitcoin price. What has happened in reality is that China took regulatory actions and the price dropped as a result.  Just because a price drop has been correlated with past actions by Chinese regulatory authorities doesn't mean those actions were taken with the intent of crashing the bitcoin price. Assuming that was the case, what was the reason? Did China accumulate a bunch of bitcoin after that?  That would have to be the logical conclusion to believing something so ridiculous, and the fact that it didn't happen means you must believe they just intended to crash the bitcoin price for no reason.  It makes no sense.


Define a motive behind the media reporting a long list of patently false content which negatively influenced bitcoin's value, over the last 10 years.

Define a motive behind false reports of binance offices in shanghai being raided, false reports of tether being "market manipulation" to "artificially prop up the price of bitcoin" in 2017.

Define a motive behind the public being bombarded with false stories about quantum supremacy being achieved. Another inaccurate media report trend which crashed the market value of crypto on more than one occasion.

Give me a better explanation for these aspects of history.

China reserved virtually all of its crypto related bans for occasions when bitcoin's price peaked at an all time high. They timed their bans with BTC ATHs. Or for cases where bitcoin's price began to breakout of sideways trading. If that doesn't illustrate a motive, what does.
1911  Economy / Economics / Re: Using Blockchain to run economies on: April 27, 2021, 01:56:02 PM
until decentralized anarcho communism could be achieved


There have been many social experiments over the last 50 years to achieve anarcho communism. All of them failed. An equal distribution model never works. Some work harder or contribute more than others and always want to be paid what they're worth. Rather than be paid equal to someone who contributed less.

Karl Marx's grave site is funded and maintained utilizing a capitalist format.

Formerly anti capitalist states like china and russia embraced free markets decades ago as the only path to them being competitive in global markets.

The socialist communist dream continues to be pushed. The question is why. What is the motive behind it.

...

I like the idea of coordinating software matching travel routes, cargo and destinations. But don't see what anarchism or communism has to do with it.
1912  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UFC Fight Night & Main Event: Sportsbet.io Predictions & discussion on: April 27, 2021, 01:48:16 PM
      Preliminary notes

      • All 3 of Karl Roberson's professional losses are by submission. His opponent Brendan Allen has 8 out of 15 wins by sub. Will be interesting to see what changes either fighter has made (if any) as Roberson's weaknesses would appear to align with Brendan Allen's strengths


      Brendan Allen won by submission. More than half of his wins were by sub. While 100% of Karl Roberson's losses were via sub.

      Its not often the outcome of a fight follows basic fundamentals of MMA math.

      ....


      It was great to have a crowd and feel their energy. Who would have thought Dana White and the UFC would be the 1st to return to a live audience format.

      The left hook fake to left high kick combo used to defeat Weili Zhang. Is a setup I remember Pat Barry demonstrating around 10 years ago here:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXWtPOeEFx8

      There were many great fights and performances. Its good to see the sport evolve and grow.[/list][/list]
      1913  Other / Politics & Society / Re: 🚩Joe Biden is proposing to raise the long term capital gains tax to 43.4%. 🚩 on: April 22, 2021, 11:49:40 PM
      These tax hikes are a large part of the reason Donald Trump ran for President in 2016.

      I wonder if we'll see many other Donald Trump's come out of the wood work. In an effort to address or overturn these high tax hike proposals.

      It does not receive much media attention but these tax hikes are extremely unpopular and disliked with virtually every segment of america.
      1914  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The World's Largest Electronic Music Store Accepts Bitcoin on: April 22, 2021, 11:43:22 PM
      Excellent news.

      It is possible retailers adopting bitcoin support could experience 20% or greater boosts in sales. If true, it could trigger viral crypto adoption across multiple industries. Which could further boost bitcoin's value over the near future.

      Tesla accepting bitcoin payment for cars isn't likely to affect their business much. Their limited production numbers have historically lagged far behind demand. They're unable to build enough cars for everyone that wants to buy one. Other industries however have surplus wares they could see significant sales gains on via crypto payment adoption.

      Another emerging trend could be services like itunes which do not offer crypto support losing marketshare to competing services which do.
      1915  Economy / Economics / Re: April 15th Price Drop, Hash Rate Drops As Blackouts Instituted In China on: April 22, 2021, 10:57:41 PM
      OP,I don't get your theory.
      So you think that a power outage,which was caused by coal mine accidents means that China tries to crash the Bitcoin price?This doesn't make sense.
      Are the coal mine accidents real or the Chinese government is fabricating an excuse,in order to shut down power supply to the Bitcoin miners?
      I do believe that the coal mine accidents are real,which means that this hash rate drop(and price drop) isn't caused deliberately by the Chinese government.However,the possibility of China attacking cryptocurrency mining remains.




      The Suez Canal has not experienced a serious blockage in decades.

      Bitcoin mining has not experienced a serious power outage in more than 10 years of operation. Operations being industrial in nature. They might have backup generators which would activate and provide electricity in an emergency. Suddenly these extreme and perhaps improbable events are becoming normalized. But are they normal.

      There is a chance that china deliberately ordered mining operations to shut down. To use it as an excuse to highlight how 30% of bitcoin mining is powered by coal. This is the fault of the state for subsidizing coal power. If subsidies weren't involved miners would use hydroelectric, wind or solar. They're cheaper and more affordable.

      If anyone should be held accountable its subsidized coal. Crypto mining is an industry which would overwhelmingly be powered by environmentally friendly power. Subsidized coal pays crypto miners extra money to power their operations using dirty coal based energy instead.


      Second, no, China is not fabricating news to negatively influence Bitcoin's price. Every time the price falls, it's not because of a conspiracy.


      The evidence says the opposite.

      Many of bitcoin's largest price drops can be traced to negative news related to china.

      China apologized and took a softer stance on bitcoin. They're guilty. They don't want hedge funds, banks and whales invested in bitcoin to retaliate against them for crashing the price.
      1916  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Mining Alternative Countries on: April 22, 2021, 10:37:44 PM
      Iceland is a good prospect. They've expanded into the server farm industry. Their cold climate reduces cooling costs. They're one of few nations to hold bankers accountable for their role in causing the 2008 economic crisis. They've also been crypto friendly for a long time through support for auroracoin and other native crypto ventures.

      Texas is another good prospect. They've recently constructed massive wind farms which will produce large quantities of carbon neutral electricity. As US states go they pay relatively low taxes. Elon Musk and tesla reside in state and might be contracted to construct more megawatt grid tied lithium batteries which would further reduce the cost of electricity. Giving crypto miners in state a greater advantage.

      China has one significant advanage in terms of them having large surplus semiconductor production. This makes it easier for them to design and rollout ASICS while saving on transport and start up costs. That's probably china's biggest advantage as far as mining goes. As well as the area least likely to be challenged.
      1917  Economy / Economics / Re: The Country Cryptocurrency vs Bitcoin on: April 21, 2021, 11:58:48 PM
      There is a demographic interested in buying bitcoin. Who are waiting for CBDC's believing they'll be safer, better protected and better insured. These announcements could be a stall tactic intended to keep people waiting for officially endorsed alternatives to bitcoin, which may never materialize.

      Given the past difficulties banks have had in modernizing their financial networks. Its unlikely they'll rollout new infrastructure and digital currency networks anytime soon.

      Some of the greatest (if not the greatest) bank heists in history occurred when banks modernize/upgrade their systems to an electronic format. There are trusted developers and middle men who have tried to rob banks while in the process of modernizing and upgrading them. The amount of trust, money and work it takes for the banking industry to rollout new technology is non trivial at best. Which is one reason why it very seldom happens.
      1918  Economy / Economics / Re: Markets taking profit on: April 21, 2021, 11:52:11 PM

      NASDAQ 100, last month + 8%, last year +60%
      S&P 500, last month +6.4%, last year +47%
      Bitcoin, last month -4%, last year +639%

      Since the start of the COVID (in practice) to now, most indexed have exceeded their average returns, not to mention bitcoin. A movement such as this is a consequence and it may still be followed by more falls without meaning anything other than a profit taking and some caution around the ATHs.



      One factor in defining price movements is to identify which demographics comprise the largest chunks of purchasing/selling volume. If the NASDAQ increases 8%. Is the largest chunk of buyers composed of retail investors, hedge funds, banks or other parties?

      This is a key question most casual traders and investors cannot answer. They would not know where the majority of capital fueling 8% in NASDAQ gains came from. This makes it difficult to predict what future price moves will be.

      The federal reserve is the current largest buyer & holder of US treasury bonds. Their liquidity injected into investment banks, distributed towards purchasing US stocks under QE also comprise a significant chunk of US stock market trading volume. In projecting future price movements, those are relevant factors to take into account.
      1919  Economy / Economics / Re: World risk - global on: April 21, 2021, 11:27:17 PM
      Now, where would you place the risk of a bitcoin hack o network problem in your finances and in the world finances?



      ....

      Quote
      Federal Reserve Hacked More Than 50 Times In 4 Years

      WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve detected more than 50 cyber breaches between 2011 and 2015, with several incidents described internally as “espionage,” according to Fed records.

      The central bank’s staff suspected hackers or spies in many of the incidents, the records show. The Fed’s computer systems play a critical role in global banking and hold confidential information on discussions about monetary policy that drives financial markets.

      https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hackers-breach-federal-reserve-50-times_n_574ee0d5e4b0757eaeb1194c


      In Kevin Mitnick's (2003) cybersecurity book "The Art of Deception" it is claimed that more than 80% of businesses with an internet presence are electronically compromised at some point in time. With a high percentage of attacks executed by current or former employees. I would guess the state of affairs in 2021 is far worse. With states and governments having accumulated stockpiles of electronic vulnerabilities/attacks coupled with a greater integration of internet and electronic warfare.

      These days it would appear that everything is being hacked.

      A better question to ask could be: what isn't hacked -- there is a shorter list of candidates and it is easier to answer.

      ...

      That is an interesting infographic published by the world economic forum btw. Segments of it could be disputed if efforts are made to separate the political elements from the science.
      1920  Economy / Economics / Re: an economic thought experiment on: April 21, 2021, 11:17:19 PM
      When I think of emphasis on GUI and user experience. I think of AOL and hollywood movies with great CGI that are lacking in story.

      Bitcoin's GUI and user experience is a public key and private key hand written or printed on a piece of paper. I can't say I've seen many fantastic multimedia VR GUIs or layouts to give bitcoin a dazzling visual and auditory experience.

      AOL was notorious for fancy animated GUI graphics and "you got mail" audio cues to make the experience more humanized and personalized. But what most end users really wanted was greater investment in telecom infrastructure which would translate to better broadband speeds, lower prices and reliability.

      I think bitcoin is all about its backend infrastructure development. Its strengths lie in its nodes, mining sector and development. It has the business model AOL users always wanted but could never enjoy.
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