Define "enough"
you have only been registered on the forum since August 2021, so what happened?
Did you do all lot of BTC accumulation in 2022 and 2023, so your bags are largely already filled?
If you started buying BTC in 2021, then we might be in similar circumstances, although I started buying at the very top of 2013, so it took me a couple of years to start to get comfortable with the stack that I had, even though I largely felt that I had enough within a year of getting in and buying all the way on the way down.. but the down continued... so maybe that is something similar to your entrance into BTC, if we might presume that you started buying BTC at around the time of your forum registration date.
Indeed you really started your BTC journey with some hardcore challenge! At least you started with DCAing, which is the way to go! I imagine that when you zoom-out the chart, you probably find it funny now right?  Buying at 1k, would be a crazy privilege from a 2024s newcomer point of view! I think I was lucky from my side, I learned about BTC in late 2017/2018. I made a sort of "all in" with BTC, so a lot of movements and mistakes.. at the beggining I lost some coins trying to trade lol. I sold some of my BTC in 2021 to buy my house (I recently changed my username on the forum thanks to this), most of my stack is from mining. Enough $ per BTC would be around 17-19k for me, so I am fine with the current value. Not selling now because I consider most of my stack as a bonus for the future/old days ; but I could sell some without "psychological difficulty" if needed at 40k (it would be different if BTC fall to 10k tomorrow ). BTC already helped for the house, my diploma and some good lazying years, so I am not too greedy anymore, more is welcome but not vital Of course, I cannot judge for you, but it still seems that you have not had a lot of time accumulating because you bought some, sold some and bought some, and in part you seem to be somewhat worried about ongoingly buying BTC is going to raise your average cost per BTC, and I am not really sure if that matters so much in the long run, and to me it seems to be the main question regarding if you believe that you have enough BTC or not.. and you may well have had concluded that you do have enough. I am thinking that each year since about 2016, I have had some BTC to declare on my taxes, but I am also thinking that if I had been less active I may well not have as many BTC, even though my average cost per BTC is more. So maybe you could imagine a more whimpy investor (#1) who might have bought at various scattered times, between 2013 and present and maybe he acquired around 40 BTC for an average cost of $600 per BTC (total invested $24k invested), so he is doing quite well in terms of average cost per BTC. (portfolio valued at $1.7 million) as compared with a second more aggressive investor (#2) who might have gotten in at the same time, made more mistakes, accumulated 80 BTC, but his average cost per BTC is around $2.4k per BTC... ($192k invested). It should be obvious that most of us would still rather be the second investor rather than the first one, even though his average cost per BTC is 4x higher than the first. (portfolio valued at $3.4 million) As a comment: Yes, wimpy investor #1 has less btc, but he/she also spent $166K less. Let's assume for a second that the wimpy investor spent all 166K on NVDA on jan 1, 2014 (10 years ago). That investor would now have (610/3.92)X166K=$25831633 in that investment and can buy 618 additional btc right now (618>>40 extra). IF the same for AAPL, then 39.55 btc, which is essentially the same; 44.5 extra BTC "equivalent" for MSFT during the same time, beating "aggressive" by 5-10% (depending on how to count-the whole stash or only extra over 40). What I am getting at: there were many choices (i just gave the three obvious ones) that would have given you the same btc-equivalent for a wimpy, but smart investor #1. Of course, you needed to have taken a right choice of investment to get there. Btw, for a "wimpy investor" who bought a thousand btc at the beginning of 2013 for half of a "wimpy" allocation and never sold any, it would be all academic (sitting pretty on $41.8 mil). I wish i would be smart and "wimpy" like this in Jan 2013, but I wasn't. Everyone deserves the btc price they got...and we all have to live with this maxim. |
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So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??
I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024). 0.1 BTC is the offer. It could easily do so, of course, as 40K has no particular meaning. 42, on the other hand,....the meaning of life $35k = meaning $55k = meaning $35k ...........................[no meaning zone]........................................$55k #justsaying35 vs 55 would make a solid difference to my 'virtual' number (NOT on the blockchain), but I agree as far as the trend is concerned. |
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So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??
I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024). 0.1 BTC is the offer. It could easily do so, of course, as 40K has no particular meaning. 42, on the other hand,....the meaning of life |
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Waking up to see an alert Bitcoin has crossed $41.5K is as beautiful as "your food is ready".
haha...not when you are on ozempic..I am not, but someone I know is...  |
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You want my name don't you?
No am not I'm Batman The batman.  Usually a dip before the halving. History like always,repeating itself. I love when people say "But Bitcoin isn't backed by anything" As opposed to either criminal or hypocritical woke enterprises backed by dumb share holders? Enterprises that couldn't run a fucking bath? Look at the uselessness of the likes of Disney and Royal Mail these days. Utterly pathetic. Their shares should be below zero these days to show the companies' true valuations. Bitcoin is backed up by it's service, community and future. Most of these hypocrites are one way or the other in relation with shares of company with no intrinsic value Like how Bitcoin is called. the US dollar is backed by the belief and credit of the US government( the government debt). Does the US dollar really have any intrinsic value? No But Bitcoin is been called out everytime that it lacks intrinsic value. I'm getting used to muting all this shenanigans. Control the size of your pics and empty spaces, please. |
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At any moment, the SEC could end its investigation and charge them with fraud and manipulation and shut down their company and their ETF.
Or, maybe you just make s-t up...I wonder what is more likely? |
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Phil can provide the current numbers: is it even possible to turn mining profit with, say, 4c electricity after halving with btc at 39K? My guess is that it is not, but let's see what Phil says. Here is a topic that is of some concern: https://studyfinds.org/no-cash-accepted-signs-bad-news/Imho, it should be illegal NOT to allow to pay for anything with cash. Hopefully, Congress would pass such a bill sooner than later. |
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Yea....so what if others pick it up and more. This trade is too simplistic to be true (on balance). I don't give a hoot how much they sell as long as they match the underlying. |
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Greyscale will sell much more.
This is just the start of a soul crushing multi-month pre-halving correction.
Consolidation during summer.
It will go up again q4 with a possible ATH.
Real fun starts in 2025, until that happens i will remain extremely bearish.
Sorry..
Greyscale sells, others buy that much AND a bit more...so who cares if they sell or not? Remain whatever you are...maybe don't come back and stay bearish? |
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[...]
♦️ Correction before halving (maybe to $30k-$35k)
♦️ A few months of consolidation during the summer
♦️ Bullish Q4 of 2024 and a new ATH of $70,000
♦️ $100k $BTC in Q1 of 2025
♦️ Full-blown altseason where alts will pump 100x-1000x
♦️ Some consolidation and correction in Q2 of 2025
♦️ In Q3 of 2025, the pump will resume, and BTC will hit $200k–$250k in Q4 of 2025.
[...]
Meriting this for the hopium, but predictions like this are more or less Crystal Ball TM material IMHO. Regardless, 2024 & 2025 are indeed special, when compared to the previous cycles, due to the ETF approvals, combined with the incoming Halving. Choo-choos will honk many times in the coming 24 months. Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.
Bitcoin only.
@Ashcryptoreal
BITCOIN WILL HIT $250K IN 2025 From $250k high to capatulation dump below $100k in 2026. Excellent trading opportunity. It is reasonable to expect that wild swings like the one you describe could gradually be "tamed" by the ETF players + regulation, resulting in a slower, but more stable and organic growth, that closely resembles the current 50-, 100-, or even 200-WMA trendlines further into the future. This will be good for HoDLers, not so good for traders. Will see how things play out. Even with ETFs, gold had several corrections during a first bull run (2004-2011): 20% in 2006, and 28% in 2008, then a large bear between 2011 and 2015 (43.6%) and then a new ATH in 2020. The ATH to ATH in gold was 9 years (roughly 2.5X longer than btc) and small corrections are also instructive. Bitcoin used to have up to 50% corrections within the bull. This is probably gone now, but 28-30% (within the bull might happen). However, after we peak, I don't expect more than 50-60% down (vs prior 77% and above). I am not sure if bitcoin will continue the 4 year cycle; it probably will, but with diminishing up- and down-sides. We will probably transition to 25-30% yearly ROI in the next cycle (2024-2028 or 2025-2029 based on ATH peaks). Of note, if we get to 250K in 2025, it would mean roughly just below 40% yearly ROI (from prior ATH to ATH at 250K). |
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Agree with the 2025 prediction, still think that we would be at ~47K at the halving. However, it "feels" more like 2016 than 2020 so far. btw, 2015 (prehalving year) also accelerated up at the end, just as 2023 did. We might see some US tax season selling (around late March, early April), but could see a nice rally afterwards into the halving. Re liquidity: apparently, the first FED rate cut is now predicted to be no earlier than May...so that "cavalry" will be arriving a bit late. |
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Hey, it's working again. I made a mistake while uploading the files for the last version.! You can check it out.
I will soon add it to the menu of the website
I still see that glitch. Correct me if I am the only one getting that error? Bitmover says its fixed but not at my end. Price of Bitcoin is way ahead of 200-week moving average which is 30k$, so there is nothing to worry about. Just a small dip and Bitcoin once again back onto track. There was too much expectations from newly launched ETF's and they fail to have any significant impact on bitcoin price in there initial days of launch. Give it few more days and we will see whether they can have any impact on bitcoin price. No glitch for me...great site, thanks @bitmover and @jjg (for providing some excel sheets). It's kind of both inspiring and sobering at the same time, though. Let me explain what I mean: Even if someone has 10 bitcoins (which is at least 3810X of what an average earthling can have IF bitcoin is more or less equally distributed), they still can use only $1380/mo, if I understand it correctly. This site ( https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html) says that only 864K addresses have 1-10 btc. What i am basically getting at is that even if someone has 10btc ($400K roughly), they can only "rake" $1.4K a mo from it (if you go with a conservative 4% instead of default 6%), which is enough only for just a subsistent living in US. EDIT: a simple calculation shows that for a comfortable in most of the country mid to low upper middle class living ($10K/mo) you need approx 72-73 btc (only 130K people maximum have that in the whole world or 0.29% of bitcoin wallets, same reference as above). Why inspiring? Because it shows the price appreciation potential as having the top 1mil out of potential 8 bil wallets (simplification, of course) or 0.0125% OUGHT to be enough to provide more than barely surviving in the future, all things considered. TL;DR Even bitcoin "rich" with 10 btc cannot use it for a sustained living YET. |
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Apple's Vision Pro (in US only at the moment)-somewhat cool tech, but at about $4K (including tax and an optical insert) it's 0.096 btc or about.
Of course, you can put it on a card too, I am just comparing.
I was seriously considering it, but decided against it for a reason that I can't think of an important use case for me at the moment, I cannot share it with the family (because it is individually strapped) and it is too solitary. Well, maybe it is cool to look at photos and videos, including movies, but having something that weights 650g (1.43 lb) on your head for long periods of time could be uncomfortable.
Any of you went for it?
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What do you believe the BTC price is going to be in:
2 weeks? 50k
1 month? 60k
3 months? 50k
6 months? 65k
9 months? 75K added this
1 Year? 100k+
2 Years? 150k+
4 Years? ?
8 Years? ?
12 Years? ?
20 years? ?
50 years? who cares I will be dead
100 years? who cares I will be deader
133 years? who cares I will be 33 years more dead.
O.k. Fair enough. <snip> 133 years? $800 million or $900 million to $1.2 billion The third or fourth generation of bitcoiners (great or great great nieces and nephews in Phil's case, sorry) will own the stars (or at least "small" asteroids, hopefully, ) |
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It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.  Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive? Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount) All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity. EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT. Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha. Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern. The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise). After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet. I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic. <snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees? Well: 1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money. 2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out. 3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick? 1-High volatility is irrelevant to the fees, why would you leave money on the table? What you bring up is the discrepancy in tracking between ETFs 2-This is more relevant, but all this means is that GBTC discount has been dropping from -1,5% down to -0,27% (as of Jan 19) if you click on Premium/Discount tab you get a nice chart explaining GBTCs "outperformance in last 5 days". Unless you believe GBTC will suddenly start trading at a premium your remaining upside is limited to 0,27% if it ever trades exactly at it's NAV (which i personally doubt). At 1,5% spread in fees (other ETFs are currently 0% fees teaser rate) you recoup 0,27% in about 2 month of hodling. To ivomm's point, high GBTC fees just lead to reshuffling between ETFs not net ouflows from all ETFs. If we assume GBTCs outflow of BTC10k/trading day, it would take almost 3 month for BTC566k to escape their GBTC prison. Ratio of cashouts to reshuffle in the outflow is what's the most important here (and subject to much speculation), hoping cashouts are the first ones to bail, so with every week more and more of the outflows would be redirected to other ETFs until inevitably the outflow will completely cease. Nobody knows what will or will not happen...I wouldn't venture a guess one way or another. My point remains that if you were one of those who sold GBTC for IBIT or FBTC, and did so in an unnecessary haste, especially on day 1, you would be losing a bit of money (most of that loss probably occurred on day one). I would decide what to do on day-by-day basis, but the current trend shows no need to rush it. Peace. |
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It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care. Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive? Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount) All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity. EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT. Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha. Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern. The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise). After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet. I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic. <snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees? Well: 1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money. 2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out. 3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick? |
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<snip> (convince me otherwise).
Why should we...you already have it all mapped out  Imho, unless we go under 36K on a weekly, we are still in a bull phase. |
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It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care. Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive? Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount) All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity. EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT. Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha. Their own site lists discount at -0.47% Bloomberg puts it at -0.956%, and net flow for the ETFs on the 18th at -$135MM thus the price volatility that is YESTERDAy's price discout...you have to calculate by today's price  On the 16th they reported their discount at -0.73%. iNAV is not looking much better, not sure about share creations/destruction throughout the day to manually calculate live NAV, and don't have todays data so...it's decreasing..0.73 to 0.47 to 0.18? My point is whover whants to get out of GBTC and get into IBIT/FBTC/BITB right now, they can, but beware of the fact that IBIT lost 1.2% vs GBTC in the last 5 days. Why? Who knows. |
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It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care. Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive? Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount) All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity. EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT. Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha. Their own site lists discount at -0.47% Bloomberg puts it at -0.956%, and net flow for the ETFs on the 18th at -$135MM thus the price volatility that is YESTERDAY's price discount...you have to calculate by today's price |
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It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care. Doesn't make sense, hodlers are not the problem here. If they don't like paying high fees with GBTC they would just reshuffle into a cheaper ETF but not sodl. Problem is it appears that GBTC had many speculators/arbitrageurs who couldn't care less for the underlying which are now just cashing out, thus the overall net outflows from the ETFs yesterday. GBTC knew their customers, those arbitrageurs were looking to close their position and exit and not for cheaper fees, so it makes sense to charge them 1,5% as they wait for their exit. GBTC know that they're done, they can't compete for new capital with Fidelity and Blackrock even if they drop their fees to 0,3% Initially I thought that GBTC outflows were causing the discount, but now i'm rethinking my cause/effect relationship, and now think that GBTC discount is the one limiting the outflows to about $500MM/day markets can't handle more than that without discount dropping to over 100 basis points. there is almost no discount and GBTC is outperforming IBIT. the sheeple is just being "told" what to do by the media. EDIT: if someone moved from GBTC to IBIT 5 days ago, they lost about 1.2%, which is worth 9 mo of GBTC fees. 5days vs 9mo-it is quite easy to figure that one, isn't it? |
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