Outside of the short-term rally over the past few days? Yes.

The longterm trend you exhibited suggests a further downward correction. Could you explain-- when did we break out of the current downtrend?


Bitcointalk may be one of the few indicators we have, but it is a terrible one. Also terrible, but another measure of sentiment:

Yes, this is key. I do have high hopes that governments will not attempt to shut down the bitcoin market (not that they could, entirely, of course), and the relatively non-threatening nature of FinCEN's scheme supports that. But personally I am cautious, as I have in the past lost considerable money to government seizure in the grey market.

There is currently little demand for bitcoin as currency. We are nowhere near the critical levels of adoption that would be required to stave off massive downward price movement in the case of being targeted by major governments.

If this were to happen, speculators -- virtually the only thing that is massively propping up bitcoin prices -- will dump en masse. They will move on to much safer investments.

In the case of online poker, US consumers clearly decided in favor of brick-and-mortar casinos and specifically legal forms of gambling. What will demand look like if new users begin to get the impression that dealing in bitcoin is "illegal"? If regulatory schemes come about that are too costly or legally uncertain, venture capital dries up.

Not trying to troll... this is a scenario that should be considered. I lean bullish longterm, but I consider bitcoin quite risky (this is only one scenario that could crush it). And those perma-bulls who have pie-in-the-sky ideas about what regulation will look like need a reality check. This will make or break bitcoin.

I find that we often talk here as if bitcoin has already achieved mass adoption. It hasn't. We are a very long way from that. The new money coming in -- how long it will sustain we will see -- IMO is not from bitcoin users, but by and large from speculators. That is not sustainable.

The parallels are there. The regulation question is actually quite scary.

The 2006 UIGEA came out of nowhere and was tacked on to "must-pass" legislation without discussion. All major operators exited the market either voluntarily or through asset forfeiture. It effectively crippled the US share of online poker players. By targeting banks first and foremost, the small operators that were left had to turn to more seizure-conscious batch processing which has turned payment processing into a cruel joke. 2-day ACH drafts are now 8+ week paper checks (many of which bounce) or bank wires; fees are up; withdrawal limits are similar to bitcoin exchanges -- you can't get your fiat out. And this is given the situation where player pools are miniscule compared to pre-2006 and pre-2011 (when domains and bank accounts of the 3 largest operators were seized) levels.

We've already seen how the banking system can be used to attack the operations of bitcoin exhanges. This has been on a very small scale. Payment processing from bitcoin to fiat is already difficult and timely. If any major government targets the banks, shit is going to hit the fan hard. If an already difficult deposit process becomes even more difficult, timely, and shady (as high margin offshore profiteers increasingly become the only source of payment processing), and if withdrawals get even worse than they are..... money dries up quick.

I mean, we in the US are using Russian, Japanese, Slovenian exchanges. We all hope for positive developments in re to regulation. But we are in a very grey legal area... and if we get pushed further into the black market, the next round of operators are going to be far worse even.

Do you consider what you are saying to be rational? Serious question.


You lost me at "logic". I don't see a basis for this at all.

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

Was there even a modicum of evidence offered here? Or is this more wishful thinking? TIA

How about the broader downtrend? Incessant resistance? A lot of people got burnt for a lot of money -- we will see more capitulation.

It just seems so strange to see so many people suggesting that the bubble is over (..."onto the next bubble"...)

Doesn't seem to be in tune with the nature of bubbles. Are these people saying that this was not, in fact, a bubble? Or simply that bitcoin is different than any other speculative asset?

If you make decisions on the basis that bitcoin is different than any other speculative asset, I think you might be crazy. That bitcoin might be novel, etc. doesn't change its nature.

Agreed, and it does seem like people fall for this shit reading through these threads. What a bunch of crap. Always the same tired line. Not sure how much of a real effect there is, though. Frankly just annoying to wade through the endless irrational exuberance.

.1 USD is really insignificant here. This isn't some sort of predictive science.

We crossed 124.75 13 hours ago. We have fluctuated between 124.65 and 124.9 over four separate hours since then before falling back to 120/under. Yes, we couldn't even break 125. This repeated stagnation at the resistance from 120-125 = downward break, IMO.

Hourly shows 5 tests of 125 and 5 fails over 13 hours. I can't see a breakout any direction but down here.

So many of these comments..... so little basis.

No. This topic is ridiculous. These topics are getting so fucking ridiculous.

Do you know what has been happening in Syria for the past 2+ years?

Just havin a pretty hard time feeling bullish here.

Yes, but "up" sentiment is in freefall. It seems like that would be important to note.

I don't understand. Charts show sentiment in freefall. Not sure how much credence I lend it, but, yeah.

Most of my buy orders are in the 80s, I think we'll bounce off 78-80 once or twice more. But I think we'll go lower.

bitcoin down 25%. correlation?

...maybe give it more than 4 hours?