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1881  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 11:09:46 PM
it happened to me once, haven't slept during a crash.. went from one mistake to other after nice initial gain.

The worst is when you sit up all night as long as you can waiting for something that doesn't come ... I hate it when that happens ! Feel like crap the next day, and the action normally happens then lol

I really hate trading sometimes ... in fact a lot of the time. Win or lose, it's pretty soulless and a big distraction from 'real life'

I've never lost any BTC holdin like a mofo. You guys should try it, way lower stress.
That sounds extremely stressful. No thanks. I'll buy and hold when we start running up a new bubble.
1882  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 09:24:43 PM
I sold at around ~75 coming back up, but I haven't bought back in.... Yet.

Snap! I bought at 65 and sold at 75. I should have held on!
Meh, set your targets and sell. > 13% is nice. No need to be greedy. I knew we might break 100 (and felt we'd fall right back down), but felt pretty shaky at 90, so I unloaded everything at 89. Can't play 'em all perfect. But I feel good about 22%.  Smiley
1883  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 08:14:01 PM
After this week, I'm not sure we will see triple digits in 2013 again.
Hehe.

It was a lot of fun riding this bull trap. It's gonna be a blood bath out there.
1884  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 05:30:54 PM
Potential... that was my point -- that in a discussion about the present-day utility of bitcoin, unrealized potential does not apply.
Isn't that just about the entire point of speculating in something? You hope that the future value will be higher. If the potential was fully realised now, that would not happen.

That's when it's time to sell.

Any discussion about speculating in price movements has everything to do with unrealised potential as compared to present day utility.

So you admit that BTC has unrealised potential then?

Ding ding ding... time to buy.
I think we are speculating on different time frames.  Cheesy
All that needs to happen is for the risk of confiscation to outweigh the risk of bitcoin price fluctuations. Someone just has to believe that the risk is real.
But why bitcoin -- from a layman's perspective? That you and I see the benefits does not guarantee anything. There are obviously many options to hide / store money besides bitcoin. You make it sound like the Cypriots themselves probably bought up the bubble to 266.
  Speculation is counter productive and wrong. If everyone just tried their best to use bitcoin and tell others about the benefits, we would all make way more money than by speculating.
but how would we ever have attracted the userbase and development we did without the profit incentive that high prices wrought by speculators brought? Smiley just let the market do its thing
This. You can't stop speculation, you just need to roll with the market.

Personally, as far as encouraging people to get involved... While I enjoy discussing bitcoin with people that don't know about it, I must emphasize the risk involved, not only re volatility and the recent bubble, but also the tense regulatory atmosphere and potential for government interference, as well as what the quasi-regulated and unregulated economy means to them -- the lack of recourse they may have when when accounts are hacked, shady companies run off with their money, people defraud them, etc.
Yes, this pretty in the same way ,it might lose its value 50% in two weeks and also had chance to get increase its value by 50% in two weeks.
For some extremely countries like mentioned above ,those people if they know there are alternative way as BTC,they will ignored the price fluctuation ,because they have no other better choice ,Gold is too high weight and can't be cut into small amount, currency either not secure ,it may losing value more quick than BTC.
No, it is not a 50-50 shot. It's not just "buy, buy, buy." And where do you get the idea that people will perceive bitcoin to be the best possible choice? Why is BTC not skyrocketing in prevalence in Argentina? Because people want dollars.
The market doing its thing is what causes the cycle of financial crises and wars. If everyone would just buy, hold and use bitcoin for everything they can, the price would already be much higher and even more people would be getting into it now. People think they are making money selling "high" and buying low, but its peanuts compared to what an army of dedicated believers could accomplish.
That is a very unrealistic hope, though. Until this market matures, the "army of dedicated believers" bit is irrational and will be perceived by many as such. People want to maintain or grow their portfolio -- you can't simply expect people to hold when they perceive the value to be in decline, particularly when much of the economy is comprised of speculators.
Now its panic buy instead of panic selling. haha
I think we may have seen the top here... maybe a couple more pushes into triple digits, but I don't think it will last. Starting to see sell pressure and not from whale dumps. I didn't think we could break out for long above 100, but we'll see. I think if the whale continues to push the market up, he is definitely playing with fire at this point.
1885  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 10:23:02 AM

Why the hell would they do that?


Those countries are extremely unsafe to store gold or other valuable stuffs, if they realize that they can store their money in a save way like BTC ,what makes you think they would not to do so Huh assume their local currency are almost incapable to store value ,because the uncertainty of their government .


I think we're starting to make some pretty sweeping generalizations here. What makes you think that they would do so? We are talking about the same bitcoin that recently lost almost half its value over a 2-week period, right?
1886  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 10:14:00 AM
What I do not agree with is with the statement that BTC being decentralized and trust-free is only "ideological" stuff with no utility. No sir, not at all. Those characteristics has the potential to solve very real, daily problems for millions of people on the planet.
Potential... that was my point -- that in a discussion about the present-day utility of bitcoin, unrealized potential does not apply.
Would you agree that we're closer than we were two years ago? A year ago? 6 months ago? 3 months? 1?
Yes.
1887  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 10:06:40 AM
   Bitcoin is more liquid than paypal in Afghanistan, Montenegro, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Sudan, Syria, Belarus, and Somalia. This is approximately 600 million people.
Yeah, well, this is pretty much the list of countries that Paypal does not serve. Certainly you would expect a US payment processor not to serve countries on the embargo list? However, I am curious as to evidence that bitcoin is more liquid in Belarus and Somalia. Or that bitcoin adoption has taken off in North Korea and Burma.  Roll Eyes I mean, Iranians have paypaad / mpaad, Bangladeshis have payza, etc... so comparing bitcoin to Paypal in that context isn't relevant. Naturally, it's not about being more liquid than Paypal. Paypal is just one of many, many examples, as stated earlier.

Even if they only made an average of 1 dollar a day and saved at a rate of 5%, and then put an average of 20% of their savings in bitcoin to be able to make international transactions, this would mean a tripling of bitcoin's market cap.
Why the hell would they do that?
There are at least a few people among those 600 million who would like to make purchases online and are hindered from doing so by restrictions that ultimately only benefit the rich. Both capitalists and socialists can get behind bitcoin in good conscience- free markets create more wealth, free flow of money loosens super elites monopoly death grip on the global order. The more they tighten their fists the more bitcoins will slip through their fingers!
REVOLUTION!!!  Grin
1888  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 09:42:59 AM
This "bitcoin revolution" stuff doesn't add anything. Like other web/mobile payment systems, you can send/receive money virtually instantly to an electronic address. Yes, it's not tied to a government -- but we're talking about utility here, not political philosophy and idealism.

This you call "political philosophy and idealism" is in reality a very big practical problem solver for a big part of the world. I will give you two examples based on my very own personal experience:

1) Have you ever tried to do business with Argentina? I've been doing for many years, with big and reputable companies (but currently in a "fight" with C. Kirchner), until they couldn't pay us any more in USD because of internal monetary policy. The situation got so absurd that I was offered to flight to Buenos Aires to pick up a suitcase full of useless pesos. Obviously I declined as that is a dangerous game, I took quite a big loss and I moved on, not doing any more business with that country. That problem persists and is very common in my industry, Argentina is "cut out". BTC has the potential to solve that problem.

2) One of my best friend moved to a South American country, and there are very big barriers to get a residence permit (the process is lengthy and the bureocracy messy), and without resident permit you can't have bank accounts that allow international wires, both incoming and outgoing. BTC is actually solving that problem, besides of the exchange rate risk (which is indeed big at this moment).

Plus, I think that I don't have to remind you what happened in Cyprus, and the amount of money taxpayers from most of Europe and the US had to pay from their own pockets to bail out "too big to fail" banks. I guess you also know that Southern Europe countries are in the middle now of a deep financial crisis triggered again but a disastrous monetary policy.

So, I understand how for a lot of US and generally speaking "first world" folks the "decentralized, trust-free" characteristic of BTC is only "ideological", but the reality is it is not: millions of people are becoming poorer because of the IMF, FED or ECB monetary policies.

TL;DR -> do not underestimate the practical need for monetary freedom.
You definitely bring up some interesting points. My feeling is that bitcoin is too illiquid and volatile at this point to serve these purposes on scales worth mentioning, though I agree, the potential is there. Indeed, people are becoming perpetually poorer because of destructive monetary policy, but that doesn't address what I was saying. My frustration is with the tendency to speak of bitcoin's potential as already having been fulfilled -- and that by its potential alone, it is useful. This forum is awash with that sentiment. It's funny, but frustrating, when people ignore everything you say and reply, "but, bitcoin revolution!" or something similar. The early discussion re utility is a good example of how irrelevant that can be (and how cult-like it comes off).
1889  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 08:58:56 AM
What's up with this?



Clearly a large buy, not sell? Am I not understanding something?

relatively small sale against the ONGOING ONSLAUGHT OF THE BULLS

It's getting larger by the minute.

I would suggest you go all in now if you are a ideological bull Grin
Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1890  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 08:35:52 AM
That is to send to their paypal account not to be able to withdraw it to a bank accunt!

That is just saying someone in those countries can open a paypal account but they cannot withdraw the cash to a bank account in their country!

Anyone can open a BTC wallet in 2 seconds, it is a level playing field there is no red tape and no BS.


Dude. Are you serious? You are telling me that you can use bitcoins for P2P payments. I am telling you that you can do the same thing with Paypal, cheaper, in all of the places that you claimed that people couldn't. The only thing that matters is liquidity -- and there is no question that mobile/web payments providers will continue to ramp up services in developing countries.

You can't withdraw BTC to a bank account in your country, can you? Much of this discussion is about people without bank accounts. I really don't see where you are going with this. The point is that people can exchange value cheaply without banks.

There are many, many ways to convert Bitcoins to local fiat everywhere in the world (which is a factor in liquidity).

To be able to purchase locally with funds locked in a paypal account doesn't seem the same, does it?
Bitcoin is actually extremely illiquid in much of the world. Are you actually suggesting that bitcoins are more liquid than Paypal $? What evidence do you have for this?

"Locked" in a Paypal account? According to Paypal, there are 110 million active accounts. There are what, 1.5-2 million funded bitcoin addresses? Are you aware of what Paypal is, and that large, reputable businesses accept it (unlike bitcoin)? It's accepted point-of-sale in 2 million retail stores.

Why do you seem to think exchanging bitcoins locally would be more useful or prevalent than exchanging Paypal currency locally? In the context of developing markets, why would you assume that bitcoin is more liquid?
1891  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 08:00:15 AM
That is to send to their paypal account not to be able to withdraw it to a bank accunt!

That is just saying someone in those countries can open a paypal account but they cannot withdraw the cash to a bank account in their country!

Anyone can open a BTC wallet in 2 seconds, it is a level playing field there is no red tape and no BS.


Dude. Are you serious? You are telling me that you can use bitcoins for P2P payments. I am telling you that you can do the same thing with Paypal, cheaper, in all of the places that you claimed that people couldn't. The only thing that matters is liquidity -- and there is no question that mobile/web payments providers will continue to ramp up services in developing countries.

You can't withdraw BTC to a bank account in your country, can you? Much of this discussion is about people without bank accounts. I really don't see where you are going with this. The point is that people can exchange value cheaply without banks.
1892  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 07:50:36 AM
I was referring to hate the face's swearing.

You make some interesting points (unlike hate the face) but I just don't have time to research and respond to each one.

However, on the Paypal worldwide page it does state "Send and receive payments in these countries. Withdraw from your PayPal account to a U.S. bank account.

I doubt someone in Botswana has a US bank account.

We take so much for granted.
No, look closer. Like bitcoin, no bank accounts needed. If the liquidity is there, there is no need for banking. It's just cheaper.

In re to utility I actually find BTC far, far easier to use than traditional online banking services and apparently so do a lot of other people.
That's cool, I guess, but you saying so doesn't really make it so. I think I've made a case for why the former generally isn't true for most people. "A lot" doesn't really mean anything, does it? What is "a lot" relative to the rest of the mobile/cloud payment industry, or the banking industry?
1893  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 05:04:02 AM
LOL damn whales
1894  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 12, 2013, 04:33:50 AM
... There's only 11 million bitcoin addresses;

There are 2^256 bitcoin addresses.
Just a example of how much 2^256 is:
If you would split each of the possible 21 million bitcoins in single satoshis and place them in their own bitcoin address, the probability of guessing such an address would still be 1.813595x10^-62
I thought it would have been clear that I meant the number of bitcoin addresses used (nevermind that 90% of them are empty), not the theoretical limit. I was under the impression that there were 2^160 possible (2^256 for public keys).

Though digging around I may have been looking at old stats... I believe the 11 million number was from April 2013.
1895  Economy / Speculation / Re: [POLL] What will be the top? on: July 11, 2013, 06:45:57 PM
I already sold and am all out, felt the ground was pretty shaky yesterday and got out at 89. I see the top, if we haven't reached it, at 95-96 as that should be pretty key resistance. We could break 100 but I don't think we will break out above it on volume.
1896  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 11, 2013, 06:37:08 PM
I gave legitimate reasons in my post that was responded to with swearing and racism.

You probably need to be educated to really understand what I was saying.

Some people just don't "get" Bitcoin and if they don't it's not my problem  Cheesy
For real? You certainly didn't respond to much of my post. I will rebut you now, but considering your incessant whining about "swearing" and repetition of the same "revolution" talk, I'd drop the attitude. If you want to educate us, please go ahead. But don't repeat the same baseless shit over and over when someone rebuts you. Yeah, that's right. I said "shit." When someone asks about utility, no one cares about an "art experiment." If you want to spread gospel, take it outside the speculation forum, because we're not all pigs here.
A few quick examples but really you guys should do more research!
That we disagree ≠ I haven't done research.
- There are invisible barriers to entry for people from many countries (especially in Africa and the Middle East) where it is virtually impossible for people to open a Paypal account. Artists, authors, entrepreneurs and more can easily accept payment in Bitcoin for their services from anyone anywhere in the world.

- Paypal and Visa transaction fees make micropayments (payments under $1 US) virtually impossible. These are easy, fast and convenient with BTC so for example someone can accept micro payment donations on their blog.
Again, that people can use bitcoin as currency doesn't mean that the unbanked and those who otherwise use mobile payments don't prefer services like payza, m-pesa, fortumo, text2pay, impulsepay, junglepay, onebip, boku, zong, venmo, dwolla, or dozens of other mobile services... or prepaid cards linked to digital wallets. There's only 11 million bitcoin addresses; zong has served triple that number of customers alone. Paypal has moved into mobile payments as well -- where is it "virtually impossible" to open an account? All you need is a phone and an email address.

Re fees, some of these services allow for free/cheap micropayments, or at least schedules that rival or best bitcoin. With e-commerce, these providers often charge the customer no transaction fees and instead pass them on to the merchant. Payza users can receive up to $400 a month free (sending money is free), which is significant in re to remittances. Certainly beats 7% or 15% you might pay on a single bitcoin micropayment, since you bring it up. Admittedly, once you start taking in enough money, you'll get hit with 25 cent transaction fees, which means you probably wouldn't want to receive less than ~$1.50 - $2 at a time to stay in that range. If you use Paypal as a digital wallet (not as a merchant), then transferring money to friends and family is free. Outside the US, 0.5% to 2%, tops. So let's say I want to pay someone $.50. If BTC=$100, and tx fee = .0005, you pay 10% / $.05 with bitcoin. With Paypal, 2% or less / $.01 or less.

Yeah, Paypal wins.
- Bitcoin is the first P2P currency in the history of the world and the first decentralized currency to have a value which is not tied to any one nation state. In terms of the evolution of humanity I see this as an amazing thing. It is the first truly global currency which ANYONE can participate in and accept payment in quickly and easily.
This "bitcoin revolution" stuff doesn't add anything. Like other web/mobile payment systems, you can send/receive money virtually instantly to an electronic address. Yes, it's not tied to a government -- but we're talking about utility here, not political philosophy and idealism.
1897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Posters that you think are lame: Are they bulls or bears? on: July 11, 2013, 05:08:44 PM
2. Pigs: those that are bullish when prices are relatively high and bearish when prices are relatively low. Yes, you are one of them if you were bullish around $200 and bearish now that price is below $100! Pigs get slaughtered so following them is a recipe for disaster.
Could you elaborate on the bolded? What analysis are you using to determine that those who think bitcoin is overvalued anywhere below $100 are wrong... let alone pigs? $100-200 seems like a very arbitrary range -- I see no basis for it.
1898  Economy / Speculation / Re: Simple reason for the price spike... why this weekend's dip will be deep on: July 11, 2013, 04:59:22 PM
any sudden or very rapid price change will face a correction. It happened with the huge slide down, and it'll happen with the big increase now.
This. Nothing to do with USD at all, methinks. Also, the push from 76 to 90 was put into motion with a single whale's 6k+ market order + xk (2k+?) bid wall -- makes the rally feel a tad artificial, don't it?
1899  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am fucking panicking on: July 11, 2013, 04:53:09 PM
all people asked for was some kind of legitimate reason to use bitcoins instead of fiat currencies for anything besides spending on TOR, and you give us that.
This.
everyone is quickly realizing that there is little point in buying bitcoin right now unless you plan to speculate. and the speculators are drying up. so get the
hype machine rolling again guys. you need fresh meat.
This.
Actually the exchange rate has nothing to do with Bitcoin's intrinsic worth as a disruptive technology / art experiment
Cool story, but not really relevant.
1900  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 11, 2013, 10:59:59 AM
Looks like a flag forming. Don't know which way it will break.... originally thought up to 96 after another oscillation down, but this rally has me nervous. Didn't reach my target but happy to take profits at 89.

All out, now dump please.  Grin
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