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Mmmmm, I can taste that downward momentum.
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very short term predictions welcomed (and new debate started perhaps....) seems rally on bistamp finally started and gox just needs to break 125 to allow further rise. Bid/Ask graph on blockchained looks good, but also looks like a slight reversal... let's hope it's short term?
125 is the top.  IMO:  |
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It looks like some negative momentum is building up.
Enough to offset the considerable positive momentum? Or just slow it down a little? Considerable, no. And momentum is reversing. |
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You must be joking, right?
There is no chance for a parabolic rise. It would require to break through several levels of resistance for which
there simply isn't enough money on Gox. The only reasonable question is if the 125 resistance level will
be broken, allowing for a push to 130 - 135, and that's it. Right now even that looks overly optimistic.
Agreed. I would be VERY surprised to see 125+ sustained. I think this is the mid-term top. |
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I've looked up 'bucket shop' and it dosn't seem like the same thing, Bets of Bitcoin seems like a better match for the turm.
Not that the label is of great importance, this I think is usefull to think about at the moment because of the situation at Gox. Are there non obvious consequences of a situation as I describe, removed from Gox, and also if Gox becomes this sort of service instead if eventually it gives up and has to, maybe rebrands.
I'd be happy with a service like this as long as their were also many other full exchanges available.
It is the same thing. Customers are trusting an exchange to hold [the value of] USD when it holds no USD equivalents. Would you want your funds on deposit at an exchange that backs their USD with bitcoins? What happens when the price of bitcoin crashes, and the exchange holds none of the USD that their customers have on deposit? Here is a scenario: Exchange holds 10,000 coins and $0 on deposit in customer funds. Price of bitcoins drops 50%. Customers sold into USD on the way down, and now want to cash back into bitcoins. However, now that the price has dropped 50%, the exchange can no longer cover 100% of the USD equivalent in bitcoins. Do you see why this is a problem? They are straight up gambling with customer funds. USD must = USD. |
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Mass adoption happening? Did I miss something? Crash seems more and more likely by the day.  |
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In a case of bearish wedge triggering (need to break 101.65 to confirm):  Ahhh, that's what I like to see. This is what I've bet on. |
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how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?  For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark. bitstamp and btc-e are not the real price either - it's somewhere between mtgox and both. btc-e has such low volume (i think coinbase prob even does more) that they shouldn't even be referenced any longer BTC-E still has 6% of the market. I mention it mainly because I trade there and it echoes Bitstamp's prices, not Gox's. Considering that every exchange has a considerable spread with Gox, it is clear that Gox is not the real price and that it is much closer to the other exchanges. Gox 121 Stamp 104 BTC-E 100 CampBX 103 No question that Gox is quite artificial at the moment. well if gox is artificially keeping prices high - other exchanges are artificially keeping the price low. if gox is 50% of all exchanges - then like i said the ACTUAL price is somewhere in between gox and bitstamp. using the numbers you've provided i'd say my nonscientific estimate is about $110.88 being the real value That argument holds no water. There is an external situation keeping prices high at Gox. It doesn't logically follow that prices at other exchanges are artificially low. It's the value of USD in question. At Bitstamp, $1 = $1, so price should accurately reflect the market. At Gox, this isn't true, and we know that the market values Gox $ significantly less than $ at other exchanges. So the real price should be determined by an aggregate of exchanges, excluding Gox. Sorry OP, delete posts if needed. |
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how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up? For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark. bitstamp and btc-e are not the real price either - it's somewhere between mtgox and both. btc-e has such low volume (i think coinbase prob even does more) that they shouldn't even be referenced any longer BTC-E still has 6% of the market. I mention it mainly because I trade there and it echoes Bitstamp's prices, not Gox's. Considering that every exchange has a considerable spread with Gox, it is clear that Gox is not the real price and that it is much closer to the other exchanges. Gox 121 Stamp 104 BTC-E 100 CampBX 103 No question that Gox is quite artificial at the moment. |
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No effect. As in, it won't keep the price from dropping.
Why are you expecting price to drop? I expected this to be pretty significant news from a speculative viewpoint, my immediate reaction was that this would definitely be good for the price. But nobody seems to be discussing it? I was hoping for some insight from you knowledgeable folk on the speculation board! I'm not knowledgeable. It's not particularly significant news, and I think this was to some extent already expected. I think we have seen a significant loss in upward momentum and are due for reversal to sub-100 support levels. Where is this loss of momentum? We've been nothing but up for 2 months. And just jumped up 10$ in value but day and a half ago. The momentum is gaining as far as I can (and others) see. What does "we've been nothing but up" have to do with momentum? A $10 rise in value... or $5 (Bitstamp)? Looking at the daily chart, this rise from 65 is a bearish wedge on dropping volume. Looking at resistances, a shift into negative momentum makes sense. Waiting for the triple top on hourly to confirm. But I don't think we see 130, nor do I think we can break 125 on any volume. Certainly, the last thing I see is that momentum is gaining. (Shrug) See you on the order book. |
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how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up? For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark. |
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No effect. As in, it won't keep the price from dropping.
Why are you expecting price to drop? I expected this to be pretty significant news from a speculative viewpoint, my immediate reaction was that this would definitely be good for the price. But nobody seems to be discussing it? I was hoping for some insight from you knowledgeable folk on the speculation board! I'm not knowledgeable. It's not particularly significant news, and I think this was to some extent already expected. I think we have seen a significant loss in upward momentum and are due for reversal to sub-100 support levels. |
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No effect. As in, it won't keep the price from dropping.
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EM's PR tips for Gox:
Publish Bank statements of your USD funds, these don't have to include the funds you actually own just the ones of your clients.
Run a blog concerning all your current legal issues, you don't have to include every detail just keep everyone updated.
Change your system so that the amount of Bitcoin funds can be audited by everybody people need to know which addresses store their funds.
Don't ever invite Roger Ver again.
Common sense is, if things were all hunky dory, they would do just that. No they wouldn't. What company does that, ever? Owners/boards prefer not to operate like an open book. And Gox obviously doesn't want to invite the world to watch them bleed their business from the inside out any more easily than it already can by watching trade volume. |
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I don't see this happening. I haven't met my targets, but will likely lock in profits and dump shortly.
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I think, and it's pure speculation on my part, that some people are perpetuating FUD about Gox so they can keep making bank on arbitrage.
I'm sure there are delays and I'm sure a problem exists. I simply don't believe it is as large as people are making it out to be.
Of course I've been hearing Gox is a scam for over 2 years now, so I may be a bit dulled to such accusations.
Disclaimer: I've never used Gox and never plan to.
Disclaimer 2: I think Gox is terrible at what they do, but I don't suspect malice, rather ineptitude. Perhaps dealing with fiat is simply ridiculously difficult.
Obviously such opaque things are difficult to speculate on. But this smells a lot like the post-Black Friday situation in online poker. In which case, delays become the norm and there is no return to normal. Most likely, IMO, Gox will never return to its previous status quo. |
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It is not like you cannot get USD out of MtGox, you have to wait. The waiting part is what prevents people from going there.
No. You really can't get it out, if you read in the forums the queue is getting longer and longer and Gox can only process 10 per day. If that. You really think a US bank is going to process a wire from Mt.Gox after their funds were seized by DHS? Gox doesn't need a US bank, though. There are countless high-margin offshore payment processors who can cut foreign checks and push through wires via intermediary banks. US banks won't touch Gox, but plenty of payment processors will. Gox thus far is clearly unwilling to shave its profits (and it may have to shave them quite considerably) to do what is necessary to meet withdrawal volume. The question is -- how much market share will Gox bleed before it does anything about it? If they are simply holding out for a US-facing bank that will continue the old status quo, good luck to them. That ain't happening. No matter what, Gox needs to bleed out a lot of market share before they can be a sustainable business. |
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Update: Bitpay did not contact me but the purchases were just fulfilled. All's well that ends well, I guess.
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I attempted to buy 2 gift cards on Gyft via Bitpay last night, and paid for them. The transactions were shown on the blockchain and had one confirmation each prior to the invoices expiring. So I've paid and not received anything. I emailed Gyft and Bitpay all the pertinent information 12 hours ago and have not heard back. Does anyone have any input regarding how long this should take to get resolved? Or if I will have problems recovering my money / gift cards? (edit: Gyft just got back to me and said they just see the expired invoices and that I need to deal with Bitpay directly) There is this account here for Bitpay -- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=31293 -- but it has not been online in 5 days, so I guess I won't bother with that. I'd done this through Bitpay once with no problems before -- as soon as the payment was seen on the blockchain, my purchase was fulfilled. This certainly makes me hesitant to use Bitpay vendors again. |
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Are you really going to do this because of that petty spat in lucif's thread? This a dick move, and frankly, it's pathetic. This forum is awash with bad predictions..... and you're going to make a thread about Rampion? Really uncalled for.
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