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This is very interesting. Thank you for bringing this up, semaforo.
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@MAbtc - Some very fair points although holding "debt" from gateways is the exact same thing as having BTC or USD in Gox or Stamp. No difference whatsoever. In fact, isn't it the Gox USD IOU's that are causing all this mess?
Yes, I have made this point before. I don't disagree at all. My point is the opposite -- that bitcoin exchanges are unsafe. I think people should be very aware of the risks of keeping significant value on these exchanges, as well as the risk of holding IOUs from ripple gateways. I make this point in comparison to holding bitcoins in a wallet, or fiat cash in hand. The only way to mitigate this risk within Ripple is to hold XRP, which is plagued with problems as stated above. |
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I'm starting to get convinced that they've orchestrated a genuine trend reversal. Doing it like this, not allowing capitulation, might serve to reduce volatility. A gradual process on people becoming convinced that it's not going back to 80 again, means re-investment more evenly spread out.
silly idea?
or better question......would you sell right now? why or why not? I'm sure some see the strong resistance at 100-105, which has been unbreakable, to be a good reason. |
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That's because there is nothing "special" about it. It's just a crypto-currency. It prevents spam and can be used natively without trust lines. Use it, don't use...Outside of the fact that each account needs about 100 XRP reserves (less than $1) for the prevention of spam, it's really totally irrelevant to ones use of the network. It's just one of dozens of potential fiat and crypto currencies. I really don't understand why people are so obsessed with XRP. Chances are, XRP is never really going to be worth anything significant, so who cares?
Transaction time is much faster, and they require no mining, which means that less energy and hardware is used to secure transactions with the Consensus system. I assume there is also no need to store the blockchain on the hard drives of thousands of users. I think it's worth speculating on. Ripple is great. XRP is scum. Open Coin is scum. I'd love to invest in Ripple because it has great potential; it's the most versatile payment system I have every come across. Unfortunately, I can't touch XRP -- there is an endless supply of it in very few hands that can and will dump your investment to nothing. I made a few coins off of trading XRP in May/June, but once I saw how quickly a very small fraction of the XRP held by Open Coin insiders nosedives the market simply by being shown on the order book, I got out for good. Open Coin recently made a payment of 200 million XRP to an unknown entity, and, big surprise, most of it has been sold over a few weeks. July has been a bloodbath, and looking at the ripple forums, holders still don't seem to understand why they are getting fucked so badly. The thing is, discussing Ripple outside of the context of XRP is not very useful, as Ripple is completely useless at current adoption/liquidity levels. There is nothing you can do except speculate on XRP -- which is why it was marketed so heavily to bitcoiners. I don't even understand why they released the client so early; it's so buggy and unstable that it appears to be more of an alpha than beta. I don't know on what kind of time frame we should expect Open Coin to have the protocol fully implemented, but I simply don't trust them. Why would I? If and until there is a far more robust system of reliable and trustworthy gateways, I would be very wary of holding value in any currency on Ripple. And even then, I'd be wary, considering I can only either hold debt from gateways, or a currency that by definition is under constant threat of manipulation. |
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Boring is stable. Stable is good.
A few days of narrow trading range doesn't really indiciate stability at all. |
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First it's important to note that Ripple is not a currency, it's a global payment network that costs virtually nothing to use. Within this payment network you can use any currency you choose. USD, EUR, YEN, BTC, LTC, PPC or any other currency there is liquidity for. I say this because it's important to know what you're investing in. It's not Bitcoin. It's a true protocol like http, not a single crypto currency.
Is Ripple actually gaining any traction as a payment network? I've yet to see a single business accepting XRP or payment through Ripple network, or hear about any major/regular transaction going through it.. Are there any stats about this out there? No, there is no liquidity besides Bitstamp, basically. No vendors accept XRP for payment. It's basically speculation for XRP only, and it's highly illiquid. XRP is highly prone to manipulation, much more so than BTC. A single entity can easily dump the value of XRP to oblivion. Indeed, a single entity dropped something like 6 million XRP onto the book (selling them 9-10 XRP below spot, mind you), and that alone has caused the value to plummet from mid-70s, now to the 180s. It's too bad Ripple is tied to Open Coin. As a payment system, it's pretty brilliant and has a lot of potential to be extremely versatile for payments/micropayments. But the supply of XRP is completely fucked, fuck holding it. At the same time, since Ripple has virtually no liquidity, there is really nothing to be done but trade in and out of XRP. |
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Seems like everyone is on stand by until some kind of capitulation, but you know, things tend to go the other way when everyone is expecting the same thing.
I don't think everyone is expecting a drop. who else would capitulate is my question
Shitloads of people. Why not? You can only call capitulation in hindsight; I am quite unconvinced that anyone with the propensity to exit permanently has done so. We're nowhere near capitulation, certainly not when 3 weeks ago we were at 65. Lots of fence sitters. If/when there is blood and people see the value of their holdings chopped in half from here, then we'll see some volume. I think we'll bounce around a bit before we see that, though. |
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Nah.
Look at your data more closely. Everyone says final capitulation in a bubble should be on high-volume. The high volume in 2011 was at the end, in 2013 it was at the start, when it got to the 50s. What an odd assumption. Curious as to what possible argument you could make in favor of this. I mean, is your argument basically that we won't see high volume again, until we do? And when we do, it won't be capitulation? Why? I don't see it. If we saw capitulation, as you say, why the downtrend after the wave up from 50? Looks a lot more like a dead cat bounce then, doesn't it? If you cater to the theory that capitulation = bottom (only buyers left), then it's pretty unlikely that capitulation happened over 7 days, followed by an 8-day bounce, followed by a 3-month downtrend which has not ended. LOL, there will be many false calls that the 'new bottom' is in on the long journey to the real long term bottom.
Yep.  |
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[X] not until after 2014
as we are 4 dollars away. it will suck to be wrong. If it comes to it, there is nothing wrong with buying high and selling higher. I've made plenty that way. Personally, shorting bitcoin isn't worth the risk right now, but I prefer to keep my profits in fiat.  Crossing 100 doesn't really matter (and it's clear some of the bears here aren't emphasizing the point of whether we technically hit 100). It's whether we stay above 100 on any volume for any real length of time. Or better yet, whether we cross 115 on volume. |
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This. We'll see how it plays out. Don't think it means much, really, though. |
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You really think it won't hit $100 again one day? Of course it will!
I really don't. Triple digits is a thing of a distant bubble mania past. Even bearish over the long term now? |
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So MtGox is servicing withdrawals AND we have 155k BTC to be dispersed in 4 hours?
Goodbye, triple digits. Does anyone remember those?
I'm starting to think you are mentally challenged or something. You already looked like a complete fool twice over the past 2 weeks and you just go on like nothing happened. Just like that other delusional tool Rampion. What is wrong with you people? Don't you have any shame? Don't you see you were wrong twice already? Do you just ignore it or what? I'm just totally amazed by your behaviour. You really don't seem sane. Stop being so butthurt. It doesn't suit you.  Anyway, they've both been pretty solid the past couple months and I take their analyses into consideration. You, on the other hand.... |
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Why do people with shares in SD suddenly feel compelled to turn them into fiat?
Considering their sdice stock suddenly went up 50% (from 0.0020 market to 0.0035 buyout) some would already automatically have sold some sdice stock as to lower their exposure. However now everybody got coins instead of stock, and a lot of coins considering it's 50% more coins than the value of the stock was just a few days ago. So some will want to lower their exposure to bitcoins as it just went up a lot for them. We are talking around 150,000 btc that went to shareholders. Say they want to sell 20% of those btc that is around 30,000 btc that will be sold. Also all these coins were likely bought recently, so the price was likely pushed up artificially, and is now partly going back down. This. It may not be severe, but the only conceivable result is negative for BTC's price. The question is how much. The coins were already bought -- no more artificial spike. Sure, lots of shareholders will keep coins... but who actually thinks every investor is going to hold onto every coin? And how about the frontrunners? You think they believe shareholders will all stash all of their bitcoins? Bears fail again.
Oh? Still 160 by the end of July, then? This guy.....  |
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Having money at MtGox I'm as worried as much as the last time this came up, not at all.
Finally, someone with some sense. It seems like this has become the "MtGox Speculation" forum lately. So many chickens without heads running around. Indeed. I'm not worried about Gox going belly up. But I am concerned about the perception of prospective depositors. Coming from the online poker realm... the market nosedived when ewallets were cut out, wires became almost non-existent, WU/MG unavailable or with high fees and very low transfer allowances, and companies started taking 8+ weeks to send checks that would bounce on you. Sites couldn't pay out in reasonable time frames with reasonable fees, and new blood became no more. Nothing ever recovers; the US market just perpetually shrinks and the larger networks more exposed to payment processing problems continually lose market share. My experience is that depositors want to go where liquidity is, and are inherently distrustful of companies with small market share. Often the big sites are viewed as the only options. The other thing that I learned from that experience, and from the last time this happened -- if Gox can't pay out its customers due to payment processing issues, $1 Gox < $1... propping up BTC. |
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The 12 hour chart is unbelievably bullish.
Do tell. |
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SERIOUSLY FUCK WHY DOESN'T SOMEBODY 1000 BTC DRIVING ME CRAZY HERE
Perhaps the market truly doesn't want to go over 100 just yet. The downward channel upper line is at 100ish, and 100 is a psychological number. I'd be happy if we went over and started a new rally, I'd also be happy if was dropped much further before beginning a new rally, haha.  The apparently market DOES go over 100 routinely, such as whenever I walk away from my laptop. Hehe, I was sleeping both times it went in last few days, woke up both times when it went down 5 dollars at least. Those were the first two tops. Third top coming? |
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Aren't the times when it is so obvious where the price is heading so much better and more relaxed?  This looks like chess match Yep, if this triple top forms, it will be pretty obvious indeed! |
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No, we will escape when they lose patience and start to buy in.
You forgot the other option, which is holders get scared and start to sell out. scared of what? Long term investment is bullish still, there is no reason to be scared. Yep. Most of the newbies have been spooked out already People often say this. How so? |
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Unfortunately I'll have to close this forum account (lucif) soon along with this thread. Say it ain't so!  |
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it happened to me once, haven't slept during a crash.. went from one mistake to other after nice initial gain.
The worst is when you sit up all night as long as you can waiting for something that doesn't come ... I hate it when that happens ! Feel like crap the next day, and the action normally happens then lol I really hate trading sometimes ... in fact a lot of the time. Win or lose, it's pretty soulless and a big distraction from 'real life' I've never lost any BTC holdin like a mofo. You guys should try it, way lower stress. That sounds extremely stressful. No thanks. I'll buy and hold when we start running up a new bubble. facepalm..... buy when we start a new bubble..... That's when you should start to think about selling a few every X%. Yeah, once my targets start being met. You talk as if I think the current bubble has deflated. I don't. I mean to say I don't intend to hold BTC for more than a few hours/days until until I'm confident that we've bottomed and the bull is on the horizon. |
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