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1941  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 01, 2013, 10:10:24 PM
One thing I've learned over the past few years here is that some will continue to discard everything as FUD, even when it's looking them straight in the eyes.
This.  Smiley
Exactly. A mod on a bitcoin forum spreading fud is ridiculous. And not just any kind of fud but totally insane predictions trying to scare new people.
I hope his mod status will be taken away asap.
Stop being such a crybaby. He has actually backed up his positions quite well. In fact, Blitz's analysis was part of the reason I became such a bear ~2 months ago.
Au contraire, I find that a mod able to see other thing than "up Up UP" is far less dangerous.
This. I actually think the perma-bulls constantly spreading irrational exuberance are much more damaging than the bears. They convince newbs to squander their investment capital and lock themselves into holding the bag during a downtrend.
What some of you guys need to understand is that your stance bullish/bearish can diverge on different timeframes. It's not "us" vs. "them", this isn't soccer or war.

If you don't care about neither the short nor the mid term trend (say, months ahead), then quite honestly you shouldn't even be reading the speculation forum because it will only serve to distract and distress you when the shorter term trend diverges. If it's not fun, what's the point?
This. The people that get butthurt are the ones that think it's just black and white -- i.e. if you are not a bull, you "want bitcoin to fail", etc. I'm certainly not here so we can all talk about how we are all long term bullish. Who the fuck cares about that? If you want to get religious, there are other forums for that.
If crash is something that is supposed to happen, I really don't think long time Bitcoin backers should publicly be happy about it, it's an awful thing to read by some noob who's considering going into cryptocurrency.

Kinda lame but I guess that's how it is..
I'd prefer it if people here, especially those looked to as having some sense of seniority, didn't play the role of missionary. I'm here to speculate and wrap my head around others' speculation, not coddle newbs into a false sense of positivity. For the same reason that I would never encourage my friends and family to invest in bitcoin right now, I am not going to advocate for this sort of bullshit.



1800 more coins and 88 falls. Good times.  Grin
1942  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 01, 2013, 07:01:01 PM
2900 coins to break 88!
1943  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will go back up tonight on: July 01, 2013, 06:48:27 PM
Sure, bounces and bull traps are always expected. But you can kiss triple digit goodbye.

That statement is meaningless without a time frame.

Will it hit triple digits in the next 24 hours? Probably not.

In the next week though? It is very likely.
Very unlikely. I'll be betting against that.
1944  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will go back up tonight on: July 01, 2013, 06:46:27 PM
Hopefully will catch a bounce at 78-80 so I can buy in and dump on you bulls.  Smiley
1945  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's crunch time Bulls. on: July 01, 2013, 06:37:48 PM
Choo choo?

 Wink
1946  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 01, 2013, 06:32:28 PM
Hi, 80s! We missed you (on Gox)!  Smiley

Less than 4k coins to break 88.
1947  Economy / Speculation / Re: Close your eyes, wait two years... how much is a bitcoin worth? on: June 28, 2013, 11:44:23 PM
If Bitcoin "goes to 0" it won't really be 0. It will always have trivial value as a collector's item!  Grin
1948  Economy / Speculation / Re: ...AND THE BOTTOM IS... on: June 28, 2013, 11:41:01 PM
I bet people are panic selling right now by watching the price go down.  It's called a positive feedback loop: people see the price go down, go oh crap, better get out now, they sell, other people do the same and the process repeats.  

I was going to post a thread with a poll asking people if they're buying or selling or holding, but this is close enough to what I was going to ask that I'll just stick with this thread.  For those of you who are selling, my recommendation is to just hold your coins: selling is only going to make the drop in price worse than it is now.  
And then, maybe you'll be left holding the bag.  Wink

Really, though, that sort of thinking doesn't benefit individual actors; it isn't based in rational self-interest. Telling people not to do something won't break the loop. Investors are trying to make (and keep) profits, not support the price.
1949  Economy / Speculation / Re: Maybe I am the last bull... on: June 28, 2013, 11:20:30 PM
Yeah, and "everyone who is relevant" has nothing to do with mass adoption. Funny how "everyone" and "the future of...human civilization" is now "everyone who is relevant" -- a bunch of tech geeks.

Digital P2P inflation-proof currency is absolutely in the future of human civilization. I'd take that bet any time.

These ideas are not going away. Deal with it.
I'm not saying they are. I'm saying that the statement OP made was ridiculous, and you haven't done anything to disprove that assertion. I also thought it was worth pointing out since OP was using the old perma-bull "bitcoin is the future" bit to say people should buy in the short / medium term. It's a good reason to buy if you will simply buy and hold for the long haul (indeed, I am a long term bull), but it's quite irrelevant in the shorter term.

As far as my comprehension skills tell me, he said "bitcoin or something like it". I don't have to disprove anything, never said bitcoin was the future of mankind.
You're missing it. He said "today everyone thinks that..." My point was that everyone does not think so; in fact, only an extreme minority of people think so. Hence, it's a really bad basis for his argument.
1950  Economy / Speculation / Re: Maybe I am the last bull... on: June 28, 2013, 11:03:32 PM
Yeah, and "everyone who is relevant" has nothing to do with mass adoption. Funny how "everyone" and "the future of...human civilization" is now "everyone who is relevant" -- a bunch of tech geeks.

Digital P2P inflation-proof currency is absolutely in the future of human civilization. I'd take that bet any time.

These ideas are not going away. Deal with it.
I'm not saying they are. I'm saying that the statement OP made was ridiculous, and you haven't done anything to disprove that assertion. I also thought it was worth pointing out since OP was using the old perma-bull "bitcoin is the future" bit to say people should buy in the short / medium term. It's a good reason to buy if you will simply buy and hold for the long haul (indeed, I am a long term bull), but it's quite irrelevant in the shorter term.
1951  Economy / Speculation / Re: Maybe I am the last bull... on: June 28, 2013, 10:38:25 PM
today everyone thinks that bitcoin "or something like it" is almost certainly going to be the future of how human civilization engages in trade and storing of value.
LOL, what a joke. Such a cult mentality.

Is that what you said about the internet?  Huh

I hope you're just trolling; either that or you don't understand tech.

Bitcoin 'or something like it' is here to stay.
See bolded. Do you really believe that's the current state of affairs? It's not clear to me that more than an extreme minority of people believe this. Obviously you believe it. And what of everyone?

No, he didn't mean your grandmother or Paris Hilton.

Nearly everyone who is relevant has positive things to say about bitcoin technology.
Yeah, and "everyone who is relevant" has nothing to do with mass adoption. Funny how "everyone" and "the future of...human civilization" is now "everyone who is relevant" -- a bunch of tech geeks.
1952  Economy / Speculation / Re: Maybe I am the last bull... on: June 28, 2013, 10:25:38 PM
today everyone thinks that bitcoin "or something like it" is almost certainly going to be the future of how human civilization engages in trade and storing of value.
LOL, what a joke. Such a cult mentality.

Is that what you said about the internet?  Huh

I hope you're just trolling; either that or you don't understand tech.

Bitcoin 'or something like it' is here to stay.
See bolded. Do you really believe that's the current state of affairs? It's not clear to me that more than an extreme minority of people believe this. Obviously you believe it. And what of everyone?

MAbtc... that's the point! SO FEW PEOPLE HAVE HEARD OF BITCOIN AND IT'S NEARLY $100 USD per BTC... that's extremely bullish in my opinion. Once more people know... the moon!
That just means it was massively over-hyped. You could have said the exact same thing at $266 -- bullish then, too? You can't have hype cycles and simply continue to go up, up, up.
1953  Economy / Speculation / Re: Close your eyes, wait two years... how much is a bitcoin worth? on: June 28, 2013, 09:27:41 PM
I think you may be right, OP, but I certainly won't be buying and holding!
1954  Economy / Speculation / Re: Maybe I am the last bull... on: June 28, 2013, 09:25:01 PM
today everyone thinks that bitcoin "or something like it" is almost certainly going to be the future of how human civilization engages in trade and storing of value.
LOL, what a joke. Such a cult mentality.

Is that what you said about the internet?  Huh

I hope you're just trolling; either that or you don't understand tech.

Bitcoin 'or something like it' is here to stay.
See bolded. Do you really believe that's the current state of affairs? It's not clear to me that more than an extreme minority of people believe this. Obviously you believe it. And what of everyone?
1955  Economy / Speculation / Re: Maybe I am the last bull... on: June 28, 2013, 08:47:45 PM
You are not the only bull, there are plenty of people around who think the price will go up long-term. Some of us just realize the long-term and short-term can be moving in opposite directions.

Seems like an unsustainable situation though. Like I said, good luck not being the person who sold at the bottom.
Good luck holding when you could have doubled/tripled/quadrupled/etc your coins. (See what I did there?  Wink)

Pretty illogical to use that as a basis for ignoring sentiment and technical indicators. Many people realize that much more money can be made not using "buy and hold" strategy, which simply rejects countless opportunities to make profit.

@MAbtc: You realize you are in a crowded room full of bears at a tea party, speaking vocally about how the bitcoin cookies taste awful while simultaneously creeping towards the last bitcoin cookie. You are going to be a hungry, hungry bear.
Again, telling people this doesn't make it so. You retaining this ominous tone that "you're going to miss the train" -- as the perma-bulls have been screaming for the past month as we slid from high 130s to low 90s -- isn't very convincing.

As for a being a hungry, hungry bear, I was happy to sell the last off my coins in the 130s and certainly am not selling at the bottom. I do not day trade and do not intend to panic. If I miss the bottom, whatever... my initial investment is recouped, I have profits locked in, and I certainly won't being buying in at a loss considering my past positions.

Let the bears have their time to make money.  Wink
1956  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 28, 2013, 08:26:24 PM
So much butthurt around here!  Smiley
1957  Economy / Speculation / Re: Maybe I am the last bull... on: June 28, 2013, 08:25:40 PM
You are not the only bull, there are plenty of people around who think the price will go up long-term. Some of us just realize the long-term and short-term can be moving in opposite directions.

Seems like an unsustainable situation though. Like I said, good luck not being the person who sold at the bottom.
Good luck holding when you could have doubled/tripled/quadrupled/etc your coins. (See what I did there?  Wink)

Pretty illogical to use that as a basis for ignoring sentiment and technical indicators. Many people realize that much more money can be made not using "buy and hold" strategy, which simply rejects countless opportunities to make profit.
1958  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 28, 2013, 08:12:49 PM
So how many cheap coins are you people buyimg already? 100's? 1000's?
LOL...
Cheap coins? We've got a long way down until coins are cheap.
I don't see any cheap coins yet, not even at Bitstamp.

Right, i expected this answer. Because this is the standard answer i get everytime when i ask that question.

Bitcoin goes down, people here are extremely happy and scream about cheap coins, you ask them how much they bought, they tell you they're not buying yet.
Yeah, waiting for them to get a lot cheaper. Which is the thing to do when they are quite overvalued.

I have bids starting in the 77-80 range to catch the next bull trap, but most coins will be bought far lower.
1959  Economy / Speculation / Re: Duble Digit Belieber's Club: on: June 28, 2013, 08:05:02 PM
Hey double digit believers,

In case you haven't noticed, there's been a concerted effort lately to keep the price AT OR AS CLOSE TO $100 AS POSSIBLE.

Somebody (Or group of somebodies) wants BTCUSD to be $100 for a while.

This person is REALLY GOOD at what they are doing, and have been VERY successful.

So, please, the second price goes from $101 to $99, that does not give you the license to FUD around "OMG back to double digits, no media attention, low volume, public losing interest, we're fucked, get out while you can." 'Specially when it touches $100 again within 10 minutes of you posting.

FYI, 17 hours later, we have dropped to a low of 92.25 with virtually no bounce (certainly nowhere near 100). Awesome theory.
1960  Economy / Speculation / Re: Maybe I am the last bull... on: June 28, 2013, 07:58:28 PM
today everyone thinks that bitcoin "or something like it" is almost certainly going to be the future of how human civilization engages in trade and storing of value.
LOL, what a joke. Such a cult mentality.
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