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2341  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 on: October 10, 2023, 09:03:46 AM


I wanted to prepare a betslip with the score predictions I made in the pool. As a matter of fact I was almost going to predict the score of the Bayer Leverkusen - Koln match as well if I wasn't late. I can't believe that my betslip lost by Bayern Munich's only one goal. Coman scored the 3rd goal in the 85th minute so I got excited as there was time. But that last goal I needed didn't come. Sad

Wow, nice bet! To be honest, taking into account how frivolously Bayern plays in defense, for me the maximum score without conceding goals for them is 3-0. If I thought they would score 4 I would have gone for 4-1.
Do you often place such bets (on the exact score and with such huge odds as 70)? I’m thinking about starting to place bets on the exact score, but so far I can’t understand what kind of payback prospects such bets have.
2342  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: October 10, 2023, 08:52:13 AM
Quite a strange situation: Barcelona lost points for the second time in a game with an outsider and is now 3 points behind Real Madrid. At the same time, Real lost points only in the game with strong Atletico. In turn, Atlético, if we take into account the game in reserve, is one point ahead of Barcelona. But the title quotes are as follows:

Real Madrid 1.89

Barcelona Fc 2.20

Atlético Madrid 10.00

In my opinion, Real and Atletico are underrated and Barcelona are overrated. I don’t see Atlético as a contender for the title, but the numbers are such that they should be rated higher.

For me Atletico Madrid is on the best run here having won 2 great games,both at home against Real Madrid which gave them a huge boost in confidence and they have continued winning by beating this last weekend another very good performing team lately,Real Sociedad.

Barcelona with the draw of yesterday game should have the odd of 3.5 at least as they are three points behind Real Madrid and they are on equal points or just one point disadvantage to have that low odd nearly identical to Real Madrid.

Yes, Barcelona is clearly overrated. I wonder what the bookmakers expect after Barcelona suffers in games with outsiders and loses points in them, that Barcelona will win all head-to-head matches against Real and Atlético? This is naive (although this can happen, I do not deny it, but the likelihood of this is low). By the way, on October 28th the Barcelona - Real Madrid game will take place and we will see how right (or wrong) the bookmakers are.
2343  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: October 10, 2023, 08:45:04 AM
It is quite fair to assume that Bayer Leverkusen may be a more dangerous opponent because Dortmund can turn on clown mode at any moment and lose points where no one could have predicted. Already now Bayer is rated better than Dortmund (but still too far from Bayern):

Fc Bayern Munich 1.25

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7.50

Borussia Dortmund 11.00

It's funny that Bayer and Bayern have the same goal difference: 23-6

It is the classic odds by bookmakers for Bayern Munich. I will give them that as well because they are really the favourite for the league title by far. Their being at the third position now doesn't change anything for them. They are stronger than last season and the Kane transfer has been very beneficial.

Leverkusen and Stuttgart are doing really well on one hand maybe. But I would expect Stuttgart not to last very long. However hopefully Leverkusen can manage to stay in this race until the final moments. If Dortmund did it with a worse level of performance Leverkusen deserve to do this more than them with this game now.

Yep. It is quite difficult to expect other quotes when a team becomes champion 11 times in a row. If you look at it from this point of view, 1.25 can even be called a generous coefficient. However, if things continue the same way for Bayern, then I will begin to doubt them. They concede a lot of goals (in the Bundesliga this is not the case, but in the season on average yes) and so far their results are very far from the expected dominance.
As for Stuttgart, they have no chance in the long term, but it will be interesting how long they can stay at the top. Bayer is naturally the more serious contender.
2344  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: October 10, 2023, 08:36:10 AM
Currently the quotes are as follows:

Newcastle 1.28
PSG 1.33
Milan 2.75
Dortmund 4.00

Regarding Newcastle, I have no doubts - they look solid, but the other three clubs, although they have very different odds, in fact, I would say they have similar opportunities. Each round can turn an underdog into at least the second team in the group. The next round will be uncompromising - the guests must win in both pairs. If Newcastle and PSG win, they will most likely cement the current situation.

At least newcastle is still better than dortmund. The worst achievement probably to be on the third place but acmilan worries me. I meant the position of acmilan is not that good at this moment. It was also able earning only 2 points from a few matches in the group stage.
Although there is only a small gap between Dortmund and the second position, the probability of them reaching the play off is currently very low. I hope newcastle will be qualified for play off. Im willing to see this club to face strong club like real madrid or bayern munchen.

Howe's squad will also get a lot of experience from playing against the big team in the play off stage. I would rather pick acmilan to pass the group stage rather than PSG. I hope miracle will come for acmilan to qualify for the next round.
This group was the hardest group to predict. Anyone faced difficulty in determining the winner even those odds can still change anytime as the gap were not too between all of them.

Taking into account the fact that Newcastle will most likely take first place in the group, the likelihood that we will see a pair of Newcastle - Bayern or Real - Newcastle is very small since both Real and Bayern have so far shown 100% results and will most likely take first place in their groups.
In general, due to the absence of Liverpool and Chelsea in the Champions League (and the presence of a group of death where strong teams beat each other already at the group stage), the likelihood of “big” games in the early stages of the playoffs is seriously reduced. As always, all the fun starts with 1/4.
2345  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: October 10, 2023, 08:27:52 AM
PSG performance are lower than the previous season which was better the season before which was better the season before that and so on.
I don't expect much from them in Champions League and I hesitate to support them this season for the Ligue 1 title except that I am sure their rivals aren't that good to maintain their top ranks. I mean if PSG get the title then it is thanks to the failure of their opponents and not because they are excellent.

But this is enough - to be better than your opponents. Bayern were terrible last year and won the “clumsily” title at the finish line, but in a few years no one will remember this and the title will be in history.
The prospects of PSG in the Champions League are doubtful, just like last year and the year before when, together with the star trio, they were knocked out in the 1/8 finals. But due to the randomness, it may turn out that this season will be more successful for them. At the moment, they need to qualify and then hope for luck in the draw.
2346  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: October 10, 2023, 08:19:38 AM
Fiorentina played well against them, yes. But Napoli left out some great chances and Osimhen had two opportunities to give the game a different turn, but he missed it. I thin Fiorentina has done a great job then to make use of the few big opportunities they had and they scored. Those goals were always in the right moments when Napoli was about to increase their pressure. I still would say it is too early to come up with conclusions on whether or not Napoli is about to face a bad season. I think they are still trying to find their best form and you can see when the are building up pressure, it is still the old Napoli from last season. Their problem is that they miss a lot of chances and they can't sustain the pressure for very long because their defense is more prone to mistakes than last season.

In almost every game you can find moments when one of the teams could turn the game around or seriously change its course. We need to look at more general indicators, and here, in my opinion, everything is obvious - Napoli has only 50% of victories and this is definitely not the Napoli that won almost every game last season. As for the prospects for the season, if Fiorentina or Atalanta do not push Napoli out of the top 4, then it will be a normal season, not a failure.
2347  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io ⚽ EURO 2024 Qualifiers ⚽ GOALFEST ⚽ [Free Bets + Apparel] on: October 09, 2023, 08:36:51 PM
36 goals
2348  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io - UFC Fight Night 230 - Multi Master Challenge - (Saturday) on: October 09, 2023, 08:35:42 PM
12. Sodiq Yusuff
11. Jennifer Maia
10. Jonathan Martinez
9. Michel Pereira
8. Edgar Chairez
7. Christian Rodriguez
6. TJ Brown
5. Irina Alekseeva
4. Chris Gutierrez
3. Emily Ducote
2. Brendon Marotte
1. Tainara Lisboa

NOT go the Full Distance 5
2349  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: October 09, 2023, 10:55:26 AM
After point losses in the Ligue 1 and Champions League for two games PSG finally won a game. Honestly I didn't expect this game against Rennes to be comfortable at all. I even thought Rennes would get some points from them. However getting 2-0 ahead in the first half made things much easier than expectations.

Mbappe didn't make any goal contribution in this game. This has been the same for four games by the way. I'm curious about whether he has lost his concentration from now on. Especially after the Newcastle game he must be really frustrated.

Mbappe has more interesting games ahead (for status) - with the Netherlands, and then with Gibraltar. France is leading by a huge margin, so they can play relaxed, and Mbappe can improve his statistics (at least in the game with Gibraltar).
After the resumption of the national championships, it may make sense to bet that Mbappe will score (or even score 2+) since his scoring drought should not last long and the opponent is quite comfortable.
2350  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: October 09, 2023, 10:11:16 AM
Roma won in the away match against Cagliari yesterday with an amazing scored of 4:1, each goals was scored by Houssem Aouar in the 19th minute, followed by Romelo Lukaku in the 20th minute and also the 59th minute and Andrea Belotti in the 51st minutes with this victory, Roma managed to bring homed 3 points from Cagliari and managed to climb to 10th position, at least Roma must be able to climb to the top 10 to remain safe.
~

As I wrote, Roma destroyed Cagliari and I still don’t understand why the bookmakers gave such generous odds for a simple choice of Roma’s victory.
It's sad to see that Napoli only have a winning percentage of 50 (a radical change from last season) and are not even in the top 4 yet. Spalletti knew that there would be a decline and left at the peak, but it’s funny that things are bad for him in the national team (at least far from what was expected from him).
2351  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: October 09, 2023, 10:02:16 AM
The fact that Milan did not win in the game with Newcastle was mainly due to the Newcastle goalkeeper, it is true. But the game with Dortmund, I would say, was equal, that is, Milan was definitely not a higher level. But at the same time, Milan has excellent statistics in Serie A; if you look at PSG, they are doing poorly in both Ligue 1 and the Champions League. Quite confusing isn't it? But PSG don't look like clear favourites. Both teams need a win, but as they say, it will be a game of “three results.”
What is clear is that there is no club in Group F that is safe and has guaranteed itself to qualify for the next stage, I think the opportunity is still wide open for these four clubs. It's confusing to see the inconsistency shown by PSG, both in Ligue 1 and in the UCL, as well as Milan, who played well in Serie A but failed to win in the UCL. After winning over PSG, Newcastle is now the favorite to qualify, while in my opinion Dortmund is the weakest of the three other clubs in Group F.

At the moment it is still very difficult to predict the strength of each club in group F, because the third matchday is still a long time away. However, I still believe that PSG has a real chance of qualifying for the last 16, even though they won't be group winners.

Currently the quotes are as follows:

Newcastle 1.28
PSG 1.33
Milan 2.75
Dortmund 4.00

Regarding Newcastle, I have no doubts - they look solid, but the other three clubs, although they have very different odds, in fact, I would say they have similar opportunities. Each round can turn an underdog into at least the second team in the group. The next round will be uncompromising - the guests must win in both pairs. If Newcastle and PSG win, they will most likely cement the current situation.
2352  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: October 09, 2023, 09:18:27 AM
This time looks like Bayern Munchen have a very staunch contender for the title which is Bayer Leverkussen.They are winning every single game and the only draw they have is against Bayern Munchen at Bayern Munchen home,this should be a bell of alarm for Bayern Munchen as they won't have it that easy to win the title this year,nor that they had easy last year when Dortmund fatally lost it in the last game of the season by drawing at home against Mainz.This time though is not Dortmund,it is Leverkussen and I highly doubt if they were to be in the same situation as Dortmund last season they will fail to achieve the title.

It is quite fair to assume that Bayer Leverkusen may be a more dangerous opponent because Dortmund can turn on clown mode at any moment and lose points where no one could have predicted. Already now Bayer is rated better than Dortmund (but still too far from Bayern):

Fc Bayern Munich 1.25

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7.50

Borussia Dortmund 11.00

It's funny that Bayer and Bayern have the same goal difference: 23-6
2353  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: October 09, 2023, 09:11:13 AM
Quite a strange situation: Barcelona lost points for the second time in a game with an outsider and is now 3 points behind Real Madrid. At the same time, Real lost points only in the game with strong Atletico. In turn, Atlético, if we take into account the game in reserve, is one point ahead of Barcelona. But the title quotes are as follows:

Real Madrid 1.89

Barcelona Fc 2.20

Atlético Madrid 10.00

In my opinion, Real and Atletico are underrated and Barcelona are overrated. I don’t see Atlético as a contender for the title, but the numbers are such that they should be rated higher.
2354  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: October 09, 2023, 09:05:29 AM
The trolls don't care who they joke about, Arsenal won today, and the whole City lost, not just Haaland. If it weren’t for the cowardly referee, City would have played 1.5 halves in the minority after Kovacic was sent off and the score would have been more indecent. Haaland has not performed well in big games so far, but I think this does not matter much because on average he performs at a top level.

If Kovacic was sent off with his reckless tackle on Arsenal Captain Odegaard and that of Declan Rice, Arsenal should have benefited from the game by gaining control and having power to break the walls and defense of Manchester City.
The official didn't take a look at it, and not did the VAR intervene.

Failing to score for the last three games is disturbing, though this is the Premier League. He is a top talent, I felt like playing Haaland alongside Julian Alvarez would free him up. But not completely, not without Kevin De Bruyne.

Arsenal won, therefore there will not be such a big scandal as after the Tottenham - Liverpool game, although in my opinion such a mistake has a greater impact on the outcome of the game than a counted or disallowed goal. Football has long since reached a level where a numerical majority means a lot (not like in hockey, but almost).
As for Holland, it makes sense to bet that he will score 2+ goals in the next game. For him it always happens at this pace - either nothing, or a hat trick.
2355  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: October 09, 2023, 08:58:42 AM
Maybe the absence of KDB is so important.
I paid attention to this: out of 8 games, City had only two serious ones - with Newcastle and with Arsenal. The result of 3 points can hardly be considered successful. There is a killer series of games ahead with much stronger opponents (Brighton - United - Bournemouth - Chelsea - Liverpool - Tottenham - Aston Villa), there is hope that City's gap from the leaders will only increase after this series of games.
By the way, I was really angry that the referee got scared and didn’t send off Kovacic, who earned 1.5 red cards in the first half.
Kovacic should have been red carded in the first position and he didn't even get a yellow card in the second position. After such injustices, I am more happy that Arsenal won. The refereeing in the Premier League this year has been unbelievably bad. We might see something surprising later about this, but let's see. Two defeats last year had cost Arsenal a lot of confidence. Winning this game will reinforce their belief in the title. But if we had the same City squad as last year, Arsenal wouldn't have won again. If Arsenal continue like this, they will win the title this time at the end of the season. They showed once again how much they deserve it.

Yes, this interpretation of the rules infuriates me even more than VAR’s errors in determining offside. The referee could send Kovacic off twice (or rather, he should have done it), but he didn’t. But a sending off at such an early stage obviously has a greater impact on the outcome of the game than even a goal.

-snip

If this happens, Kane's transition will look as comical as possible  Grin

agree, especially if, by some miracle, Leverkusen make this season big, and take title from Bayern, it will be an event to make meme history out of it

 Grin Yes, this would definitely become a meme and I would even say a tragic meme because even in theory it is very sad: leaving your native club for titles and missing out on the triumph that was so close.



What do you think about the quotes?

Manchester City 1.73

Arsenal 5.00

Liverpool 6.50

Tottenham Hotspur 13.00

City, after the easiest stretch of 8 games, ended up in 3rd place, but at the same time is rated better than Arsenal, which is ahead.
A bit unfair.
2356  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: October 09, 2023, 08:50:21 AM
Hmmm... I hope this is not just a victory, but a whole turning point in the current season. If you look at the game schedule, you can see that by this time City’s game calendar was quite easy (at least easier than that of their opponents). And now they have fewer points than Arsenal and Tottenham. I hope that in future more difficult games City will continue to lose points and some other club will win the title.
I'm really looking forward to the bookmakers' quotes - to be fair, Arsenal should already be the favorite.
The fact that Manchester City lost to Arsenal is a clear indication that they will be unable to retain their premier league crown season after season. I sincerely doubt that Manchester City will once again be a premier league powerhouse. Premier League teams are starting to figure out how to neutralize Manchester City's dominating strategies in every game. Currently, Haaland is playing less effectively in games as a result of Kelvin Bruyne's injury absence. Those lovely passes that Manchester City employs to score against their opponent are not being made by anyone on the team.

What’s interesting is that bookmakers have a radically different opinion:

Manchester City 1.73

Arsenal 5.00

Liverpool 6.50

Tottenham Hotspur 13.00

In fact, I'm surprised because City are in decline and they're not even leaders in the Premier League. In my opinion, such quotes are unfair. And if we talk about the money bet, I wouldn’t risk it now for 73%; the bet on Arsenal looks more reasonable.
2357  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: Стоит ли сейчас инвестировать в Биткоин? on: October 09, 2023, 08:44:26 AM
~
"По данным Glassnode, 10,4 млн биткоинов никуда не перемещались более пяти лет.
~
Glassnode считает, что львиная доля этих монет утеряна навсегда, так как их владельцы либо умерли, либо потеряли ключи к адресам.

Тем не менее количество ходлеров постоянно растет. Такая тенденция указывает на то, что все больше инвесторов ждут, когда BTC взлетит до нового максимума."

Логика просто бомба. "Раз не перепещались значит утеряны"  Grin Я даже не знаю позитивная это картина для битка в целом когда 50% сапплая просто мертва, но мне кажется я понимаю почему Гласснода предпочитает такое объяснение. Ведь если менее оптимистично предположить что к этим монетам есть доступ, то существование такого огромного навеса монет купленых по цене от 3 до 15к ставит под сомнение последующие пампы (а точнее их иксы).
2358  Local / Юристы / Re: Регулирование крипты в разных странах on: October 09, 2023, 08:36:17 AM
~
и в законе, который никак не примут, вроде запрещен домашний майнинг.

Есть подозрения почему его никак не примут - там же наверно не сам майнинг запрещен, а майнинг по бытовому тарифу? А отсюда вытекают остальные последствия/диллемы которые мы в других темах обсуждали: чем остальные самозанятые которые дома "делают бизнес" лучше/хуже майнеров? Ничем, а значит и с ними вопрос потребления ЭЭ надо решать, но естественно никто не согласится платить по коммерческому тарифу всё потребление (а значит как-то делить надо) + захочет получать вычеты/амортизацию на оборудование, помещение и т.д. Короче ситуация патовая.
2359  Local / Майнеры / Re: Что случилось у bitmain? on: October 08, 2023, 08:07:50 PM
Bitmain еще и премии за 2022 год не всем выплатила, при том условии что у них огромные предоплаты по предзаказу Antminer S21 и у этой компании более 60% ранка продаж для всех асиков. Кризис на рынке есть, но хешрейт биткоина был около 400 Эх/с в конце сентября.

С производством асиков у них 100% все отлично, фактически еще до того как они их произвели асики уже распроданы, думаю тут сложно в минуса угодить. Чтобы понять что с битмайном надо смотреть другие статьи расходов - они там и в ИИ вкатывались и в майнерские проекты и хз еще во что. Видать не все направления бизнеса оказались прибыльны.
2360  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [banned mixer] 🦁 Fantasy Premier League Pool ⚽ Discussion Thread on: October 08, 2023, 07:50:33 PM
Rashford is the most useless fantasy pick of all times. He's on a 3,5 points average.
Hahahahahahaha, surely this makes me smile. At least seeing someone having same thoughts as myself been in the same Rashford predicament. One thing I know for sure, he ain’t staying on my team until GW9 on my team. Maybe I don’t get to wait longer than tonight to let loose of him. I’m thinking Maddison or even my transfer funds allows, then Son would be a best pick.
~

Rashford has hurt many teams (mine too) and the paradox is that apparently he will continue to do so. At the moment I don’t know if it’s worth changing him - after all, he can’t be terrible all season? Theoretically, he should "revert to the mean" and therefore should show at least a few very good results. But this hope may be in vain and he will continue to drag teams to the bottom.
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