Well, using a bit of leverage would have worked during 2014-2015, in early 2017, in late 2018 and 2022, but in my experience, significant leverage always kills your account in the end...maybe that's why i was a bit worried about M. Saylor in late 2022, but, apparently, he did not have any covenants that would have caused him to buy back the loan at that time, despite the fact that MSTR book value was probably deeply negative back then. If he would have been obligated to buy back the loans, MSTR would have to sell into a 'hole", then go bankrupt, and btc would dip even more. There are multiple stories about successes, like people using credit card debt and buying gobs of btc in 2015, but the stories of some who did the same in an inopportune time are not being told and, obviously, you could have put yourself in a pickle by doing this in late 2017 and 2021. So, my general thought about the leverage is...just don't do it! EDIT: someone wants to create the negative weekly handle in US or close the CME gap? $41894 read...  |
|
|
|
On the lifestyle/retirement subject.
I was not in as early as many of you. I do not have retirement or fuck you levels of BTC stashed away. Fortunately, I am what I consider to be "very young" with a very well paying career. My sole objective has always been a responsibile early retirement. Retirement in the sense of not needing to work if I dont want to, no daily agenda of things I need to do other than necessities, and a comfortable lifestyle. I'll add that I will also be an unofficial expat once retired.
I am fortunate enough to have existing retirement assets such as pensions, annuity, 401k, (ect). All of those are not reasonably accessible to me until later in my life when social security is also available. Simply put, 60-death I should have more than enough even if I make a few poor decisions or have an emergency or two. My focus has been on filling the gap between retirement and "retirement age" with personal assets. By current conservative estimates I am on target to reach my goal in 8-10 years which puts me at an age many would consider an unsually young retirement age.
My personal assets are composed of approximately 80% Bitcoin. I have treated it as an asset that I want as much as possible of because I believe it's value will be much higher in the future than now. I project it's increase in value as the average stock market increase of 7-9% per year to keep myself conservative. Meanwhile, it's proved to smoke those estimates to date.
I have not worked out or planned what I will do with my bitcoin once I have achieved retirement level funds. I do plan to run through everything else before touching it though. Honestly, I have hoped once I am at that point I won't need to sell it for cash to use. I am hoping I can actually make direct purchases with it instead. With planning to do a bit of traveling it adds the utility of a being a worldwide currency as well.
I thought I would share this as a truthful post on how bitcoin fits into my life. I know I and others tend to post extreme "hold till I'm dead" type of comments but, that's just the fun side of WO for me. Thought this might be a helpful point of view for others who did not start buying BTC at $10 a coin.
Nice plan...here is a very 'old' remark on love, happiness and money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srwxJUXPHvEEDIT: BTw, the investanswers "character" (James) on youtube claims that there could be only 300 thou people having at least one bitcoin (maybe he meant the situation of buying roght now). Here are more solid stats, perhaps: 859 thou addr with 1-10 btc 139 thou with 10-100 14 thou with 100-1000 Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html |
|
|
|
|
One interesting extra point about bitcoin and lifestyle.
Since owning bitcoin gives you no direct cash flow, in order to spend, you would need to sell bitcoin, which many bitcoiners find at least in part objectionable, 'cause "number is going up".
Personally, I am not sure how to deal with this: so far, I was selling very infrequently, then mostly re-investing in various assets.
There is also a difference between people who are still working (steady paycheck) and those on a fixed income (pension, social security, etc).
Right now, $1 mil in money market fund gives you 53K in interest yearly, so $2 mil would finance a middle class lifestyle (a bit more than $100K/year in interest) in most of US (not in SanFran or NY) without even a need for pension or social security (or they would come as a nice bonus). It is unclear how long will this situation continue, though.
There are some interesting places on the web to read about various ways to be retired with money: i sometimes lurk on the reddit.com/r/FIRE....a bit of snobbish attitude, but also quite interesting.
One point I read there: if you are working at a job you don't particularly like and your investment exceeds you work salary for many decades, like 30-100 years, then quit and retire to what you really like.
Chances are, you would make even more money with your stash and will be free at the same time.
Personally, this is not for me since I still enjoy working, but for many people, that's the "ticket".
|
|
|
|
Anyone here who made it with Bitcoin but still keeps living like a average person? Thank god I made it, thanks to Bitcoin. But I keep staying in cheap hotels, try to eat good food but without spending unnecessary money etc. For example, I eat a good steak but I don’t choose a steak house but prefer a supermarket where you buy the meat from the butcher and then they cook it for you in the built in restaurant.. That costs me 20 bucks vs 60-80 bucks in the steak house for the same meat. I’m not sure if this is a good or a bad habit. I hate to spent money on things that do not give me more benefits than the cheaper version. A luxury hotel is nice but at the end you just need it for the night sleep. I’m outside all day exploring. Some people spent 500 bucks a night for a hotel. I try to safe 5€ per night by finding the same hotel over google. Usually I pay 40-50€ per night for a hotel
Another example, I live in the center of Bangkok and stay in a luxury apartment in Asok. The room is only 30 sqm and it costs me 700 euros a month. I could have a 60 sqm apartment in the same building but would cost me 1400 Euros. I just can’t justify spending that much money every month because it’s money I won’t ever see again. So, I live on a budget, but still in a luxury place. Trying to find the middle way when it comes to spending money.
Would be interesting to hear different opinions on this topic. Some people spent it on yachts and lambos. I try to live as cheap (but good) as possible.
For me, both "yes" and "no". I still live like a middle class, but with 'upgrades': take an extra trip to an interesting place at least once, maybe twice, in 12 mo, upgraded (renovated) the house, etc. Still fly economy class, but at some point would upgrade too 'cause sitting on those tiny seats in Transatlantic flight, being surrounded by heavy people, is rough. At some point (if and when btc goes to millions), peeps, including myself, would probably need to upgrade the lifestyle...or it will come 'naturally": your wife will leave you (and take her 50%) is you would force her to live frugally when she knows that you have the resources, it is as simple as this. You can still have a relative balance: not buying multiple residences, but just buying nice clothes and jewelry for her/him. BTW, nice clothes are ALWAYS better than cheap ones. I bought an expensive leather jacket a few decades ago, and it is as good many years later.
I subscribe to semi-austerity. No Lambos, yachts or fancy restaurant meals.
Most of the bitcoins I've sold have gone into real estate and I consider that to be just a diversification of investments.
No need to splurge and act like a high-roller when that really means just being another consumerist sucker.
I guess to me buying unneeded RE is being what you described, but to each their own. Habits differ. People here are buying expensive boots...which I never understood, but it is interesting. I would definitely splurge on a car in the future, just to try several brands over my life..used to drive bland cars, now a "muscular' car, then maybe some vroom vroom car (when btc is at a cool million)  . The main idea is not to change who you are very much, but enjoy the journey. |
|
|
|
|
a "premature" Sunday haiku regarding developments that i am not a part of...so..there is NO endorsement here, just a statement of recent events:
ExtraORDInary:
SATS are TRACing RATS somewhere
deep in outer SPACE
haha...that said...That $622 node/small miner is cool.
1tb disk seems enough for now (maybe for 4-5 years longer), but a question to those who run a node: is pruning to reduce the size OK to do once you downloaded the whole chain?
Thinking of starting running a node, at least from time to time.
|
|
|
|
OT: UNLV is upsetting...professor (even if currently unemployed or underemployed) shooting other professors, possibly because they did not hire him. The last part is a conjecture, but he was looking for a job there and did not get one. Make you want NOT to be on hiring committees  . |
|
|
|
|
Short term, who knows, longer term we are clearly in a bull market.
looking backwards, bitcoin have had 40-50% "corrections" during prior bull markets, which is unheard of in the bullish stock market.
When stock market corrects 20% it is typically declared a "bear market" on the spot.
Since wall street is clearly contributing to this bull, I would expect them to act as a support when a correction (not necessarily this one) would reach -20%.
$44.2KX0.8=$35.36K-that's the spot.
|
|
|
|
down to 30k-35k
Or up to 50k-55k. We're still correcting from last year's steep dip. 2024 has been one big correction. I think a lot of people don’t realize this. My personal belief is that if FTX didn’t defraud everyone out of their Bitcoin and pump everyone’s shitcoins then the price of BTC likely would have gone up as high as $140,000 and would have bottomed around $60,000. So while we may be in a bull market now, we should have never gotten this low in the first place. imho, FTX and Three Arrows got derailed by China's miners ban which probably meant that ALL of them were essentially bankrupt by May-June and then they just tried to claw back lost funds by pushing s-coins, mostly. It did not work, "surprisingly", probably because more 'advanced' people were "in the know' about FTX and 3AC situation and pulled the plug, essentially. However, I agree that btc should have peaked at 120-140K and then bottom at 40-50K (instead of 15.8K). That said, I sometimes worry about M. Saylor's prodigious use of leverage. From my own experience..it works until it doesn't and then someone may be in a big trouble, although I don't expect such trouble occurring any time soon, most likely. |
|
|
|
The acceleration of this rally is starting to get into concern territory. This has got to be fomo coming in to play with traders. It is very much looking like we may break through $41K today which I imagine will only get the snowball rolling faster. I’d be nervous to be a short term trader holding here as we knock on $41K already. Common sense says a correction has to be coming, but this rally is far from common.
Well, Saylor FOMOed in with more than 500mil a few days back in one "gulp"...how many more funds (that could be MUCH bigger) are riding his coattails? |
|
|
|
Congrats on almost 41K, but that 500bil Qatar rumor is laughable (I will not even going to bother with a quote because it is silly  ) Qatar sleeps well now
No silly rumors, Keiser
At least, not yet, lol#haiku |
|
|
|
100! Wow. Only the good die young. Weird to think that he's been old since the Nixon administration.  Maybe he was born an old man. ..sure..he was 22 during WWII (on the V-day). |
|
|
|
Dammit! I was going to hit the sack early tonight and now I'm going down memory lane with music. Thanks guys!
...me too, lol...Kansas, Boston, Billy Joel, Don Henley...wait...wait...the fooking Animals even (with the famous "eggman" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4bFqW_eu2I) ....add Mamas and Papas...oh my..some of them released even before I listened to ANY music, haha. EDIT: now, I got some wine going...something heavier, like Led Zepplelin, Deep Purple and the Black Sabbath (with young Ozzie): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qanF-91aJo |
|
|
|
Berkshire Hathaway Says Charlie Munger Died Today
99yo.
He didn't get Bitcoin.
Edit:
Quotes:
"Bitcoin is rat poison squared."
"Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization."
In this case, I just choose to say nothing about the guy apart from that he was about 1 mo away from 100. |
|
|
|
|
Combining buddy, bitcoin, Bob Marley's vibe via phil:
fresh bitcoin bitcoins
buddy is blocked with vengeance
it was self defense
# haiku
|
|
|
|
nice looking too. they are a great commercial. I didn't know Australia was that fucked up. Considering Australia began modern-day life as a penal colony for wayward Irish folks (mostly thieves) they're not doing too badly; it could have gone Mad Max  yeah i spent two weeks there back in 1980 Sydney was very nice. Despite all odds that are said about Australia, its true that they have grown up nicely. Except the fact that Decembers are hot and June is Cold there. Right...but Santa pops out there in December still, wearing the traditional garb with an occasional shorts, lol |
|
|
|
I read it too, not in much detail...there is a lot of info. @jjg plan is a "mechanical" proposal that works, but i don't think that @philipma1957 (or a theoretical HypoPhil) is following the 1% sale after 10% up. He might be selling either more or less and mostly looks at it to fund his lifestyle, which is totally fine. The initial proposal by Rpitiela had 10% sell after 100% rise, which is quite different than 1% after 10%. My feeling is that 1% sell after 10% rise is too "granular". Today's WSJ article actually opines that with the taming of Binance (and assuming ETF comes relatively soon), bitcoin and the rest would swiftly come into the government control, in the author's words : Binance’s acquiescence to Uncle Sam is indeed a watershed moment for crypto. The company had little choice and would likely have suffered a far worse fate if it had not passed under the yoke. But the remaining true believers have a point too. What does crypto [his term, sorry] have to offer—beyond clunky, wasteful and overly complicated technical systems—if it abandons its aspirations to operate independent of government oversight? The probable answer is: not much. https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/the-end-of-cryptos-dream-to-escape-from-government-110aeca9WSJ is probably mostly wrong, but not entirely, I feel. Some "soul searching" among participants would be in play in the next 12-18 mo. With most mining being controlled by larger corporations/entities and bitcoin flows largely controlled by the upcoming ETF(s), who will be in control of btc? Investors in ETF/mining companies? With that, I still hope that the essence of bitcoin would endure all of this. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
