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661  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Who says you can't be a millionaire in sports betting? on: December 16, 2023, 10:46:46 PM
You don't win if you don't try, this gambler for sure kept trying on playing "bet builder", probably even on "parlay", and finally one day he made himself a millionaire. This is a significant success already as not everyone can win a huge amount in gambling, considering the bet was only less than $20.

What can you say about this? Are you willing to risk your $18 to win $18k, or a million in PHP pesos?

When people say they want to be millionaires, they don't mean PHP millions. $18k is a nice win, but it's nowhere near a life-changing amount (even in poor countries).

Wins like that are actually not as rare as many could think. Plenty of people around the world make crazy bets with low stakes even just for fun. But no one in their right mind would risk any serious money on such bet, so this is hardly a proof of "making it" by sports betting.
662  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 16, 2023, 10:35:41 PM
I have a bad feeling about the Ferguson vs Paddy fight. Obviously as a fellow Liverpool fan I want Paddy to win but I dunno, I think it will be a big test for him. Ferguson is a seasoned fighter, a real yard dog.

I have a similar feeling. Paddy seemed calm and collected in his initial interviews, showing a lot of respect towards Tony, but he got too emotional and hot-headed during the press conference and following interviews. He switched from being respectful to wanting to destroy Ferguson. It's not a good sign when you let other fighters get into your head. On the other hand, Tony was not much better, but he's got nothing to lose at this point, so I think there's more pressure on Paddy.
663  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Would it be enough to buy 100 dollars worth of Bitcoin every month? on: December 16, 2023, 06:55:40 PM
Unpopular opinion, but when investing relatively small amounts, you're probably much better off keeping your funds on centralised exchange, depositing fiat money and buying there.
Lots of people would advise you to keep them in a non-custodial wallet (not your keys, not your coins), which is generally good advice. But considering how high fees can get at times (i.e. during increased market activity), that could prevent you from losing big chunk of your money on tx fee.
I just made a transaction and the quoted "normal" fee was >50 USD. Even though things are not so bad all the time, it's definitely something to consider.
664  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: help me not to leave btc on: December 15, 2023, 05:40:25 PM
I'm a 19-year-old boy living in South Korea and now btt, doge, shiba inu, etc.. have skyrocketed in just a few hours on our country exchange 'upbit'. A little fomo is coming. I can't believe it's gone up more than a months I've invested in bitcoin. I personally don't want to invest in other coins, as I think bitcoin is superior.
What kind of mindset should I have to stay in Bitcoin? And I think Bitcoin is about to hit the highest price ever, so how should I plan my dca strategy?

If you Invested in bitcoin then you're safe as long as you're not risking your financial asset on altcoins you're not sure about, bitcoin will always exist and appreciate by rising up to a new level, the additional advise i must give you is to allow yourself be in control of your financial asset by not keeping your money on centralized exchanges, move them to a cold storage like Electrum wallet, blue wallet or get an affordable hardware wallet, not your keys not your coins.

Cold storage is a good solution for a long term storage, so for someone who is patient and not constantly looking at price charts. OP is showing a mindset closer to a day-trader, someone who is chasing quick profits. He should probably sit himself and have a think on what is he trying to achieve by holding crypto and how much risk is he comfortable with. Otherwise he'll be in almost constant distress of not knowing if and what to buy and when to sell.
665  Local / Polski / Re: Ogólne rozmowy na temat kampanii sygnatur on: December 15, 2023, 05:30:17 PM
jeśli ktoś chce zostać, musi przenieść się na ALTTalk forum. aktywni uczestnicy z tego forum będą tam traktowani preferencyjnie.

Wie ktos ile tam placa, bo nie moge sie dogrzebac, a chwilowo nie mam dostepy do Telegrama? Tez $1/posta, czy stawki ida w gore?

o ile pamiętam, tylko Tytanowy Janusz był aktywny w tej kampanii i mam nadzieję, że nie zdecyduje się na ten krok i pozostanie z nami ze swoją wiedzą i nadal będzie się nią tutaj dzielił Smiley

Po raz kolejny, moze sie udzielac i tu i tam, zalezy ile ma czasu do dyspozycji. Ale mysle ze bez problemu znajdzie sobie inna kampanie na btctalk.
Bez Janusza to polska sekcja dlugo nie pociagnie  Sad

Bo na Alt talk to wchodziłem w najgłupsze dyskusje i np pisałem że głupio gadają xD albo są  np. dyskuje na temat NFT - rzucić okiem napisać się że się podoba albo nie, skomentować kogoś komentarz - takie nabijanie postów mowa trawa

Ale jezeli Royse777 bedzie tam managerem, to chyba bedzie mial taki sam stosunek do spamu jak tutaj. No chyba ze rzeczywiscie nie bedzie mial z kogo wybierac...
666  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Is my plan legal? Managing the account of a dead person on: December 15, 2023, 05:18:02 PM
That's what I'm talking about. If you are involved in investments, then you need to study the legislation and communicate with like-minded people in order to understand how to protect your investments and not pay like a obedient sheep 50% of your profits and be proud that you are a conscientious citizen.
Amen.
I'm not against paying taxes, but they need to be set fairly and be reasonable. Charging someone 50% of the profit or charging taxes on unrealised gains is morally wrong and should be avoided as far as possible.

I'm just curious and I don't think there is a tax on bitcoin in my country Indonesia but. It is just simple if you buy bitcoin and keep it on your hardware wallet and say you don't have one to the government I mean they don't have evidence if you have the bitcoin right ?

This is where many people get it wrong. It's super easy to hold your bitcoins quietly, without anyone knowing, but eventually you will want to cash out (either by converting to fiat or buying something expensive with bitcoins directly) and that's where they get you.
You need to think ahead, pay taxes on your BTC income if applicable, so when the time comes, you'd be able to explain where did all that wealth come from.

667  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 15, 2023, 05:06:42 PM
I know Paddy is the big favourite, but I'm there with you in that I wouldn't bet on anyone in that match. I think that Tony is a Legend and to be honest I hate Paddy with all his bad attitude all this time. Maybe he wants to have the persona of a McGregor but I can say there will be no second McGregor in the UFC. At least for now.

I was rooting for Tony until I heard him speak during the pre-fight conference. He's got some really insufferable personality. I'd just stick to watching him fight and will skip listening to him.
Both looked pretty bad in that conference to be fair (so did Leon Edwards). It's a good indicator of who's able to take control of their emotions and stay cool. Paddy needs to figure out whether he wants to be a shit-talking bad guy or a respectful fighter, so far he's stuck somewhere in between, mixing up up those 2 which makes it hard to be his fan.
I favour Paddy, but I expect Tony to give him a hard time, as he won't be calculating and will go all out. If he loses 7th in a row, that's probably over for him in the UFC at least.
668  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: [Discussion topic] Overview of Bitcointalk Signature-Ad Campaigns on: December 15, 2023, 04:46:39 PM
Crypto casinos isn't just about KYC and KYC isn't that thing which makes them legitimate. Many of these casinos promoted on Bitcointalk isn't legal in different jurisdictions or goes into grey zone. Many countries just doesn't accept licenses issued in Curacao and other offshore countries.

Exactly. It's not a binary logic: legal or illegal. Technically speaking, casinos would need licence for each country they provide their services to (unless a country does not require such). So if a casino want to offer their services to say UK customers, they'd need a UK license, if they don't have it, they should be restricting players with UK's ips (that's what e.g. Stake or FortuneJack do).
669  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The risk and reward of having Bitcoin on: December 13, 2023, 05:38:00 PM
* It can make you filthy rich during the bull run.

Unlikely. It's impossible to provide the same rate of return each cycle, that's why we see decline of about x5 each cycle. So even if it goes to say $150,000 (very optimistic scenario) that's only around x3.6 return from the current price, meaning you won't get filthy rich unless you're already very wealthy.
That's OK though, it's better to have "modest" x3 than gambling your money away sniping for X1000 coins.
670  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Would it be enough to buy 100 dollars worth of Bitcoin every month? on: December 13, 2023, 05:30:19 PM
I get about $100 of allowance from my father every month. I use all of them to buy bitcoin because I can use father's credit card for expenses such as food, clothes.

Is he aware of you using his credit card for such expenses? Isn't the $100 allowance meant for such purpose? If you're stealing from your own father, then you got much more serious things to worry about than BTC investment.

(...) but when I see people buying Bitcoin basis on the internet, I feel like I'm too behind myself. Maybe they have a much higher income than me because they have a job. I think I can only invest $100 a month for the next year or two, would that be enough? I am worried about missing big bull market with halving and etf approval.

"I feel", "I'm worried" - these are emotions, and you should minimise them as far as possible. Making emotional decisions almost always leads to losses.
If the $100/month is all you can afford, then why would you even care if other people invest more or less? What difference does it make to you?

That being said, if you're aiming for a shorter term investment, i.e. buy now and sell at the top of next bull run, then you have to figure out which indicators to use to know when to stop buying and start selling.
And you're unlikely to make any life-changing profits. The times of BTC doing x1,000 or x100 are long gone. The price is unlikely to go up more than x3 or x4. So be realistic in your expectations.
671  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The shorter the time you spend the better on: December 13, 2023, 04:57:27 PM
Gambling also cannot be based on time, it depends on how much money we can play the game.
The more money we are willing to play, the more likely we are to play for a long time. Unless you have a lustful tendency to bet All In.

Why not? There's nothing stopping you from having time-based limit. Some people would just grind on low stake tables/games for a very long-time, hoping for some lucky streak etc. Setting up time-limits could work pretty well for them. After all, they (rightfully) say that time is our most valuable asset, so wasting time is not much different than wasting money. It could actually be worse.
I'd much rather lose $5 in 5 minutes, than spend couple hours to win $5, if this makes sense.
672  Economy / Speculation / Re: Coinbase App Store rank as a market top indicator on: December 13, 2023, 04:46:43 PM
Just a thought regarding this indicator, it might not be as reliable as it was in the past for the reason of Binance losing US market as well as big chunks of Europe. Also Kraken seems to be bullied by SEC, so it looks like the Coinbase is being set to have an almost monopoly in the US.
So, in theory, by taking over customers from other exchanges, and with all new people not being able to use services of any big competitor, they could achieve the #1 downloaded app long before we reach the peak.
673  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 13, 2023, 04:34:48 PM
Strickland become suddenly underrated when he won Adesanya Cheesy Before that he was just a good fighter with charisma, imho. If we look on his record, Adesanya perhaps is his biggest achievement so far.  And people say that he had won not because of skill, but because Adesanya has burned and required a vacation. DDP on the other hand has beaten one of best middleweight striker (Whittaker). Got stone chin. I even think that he would survive one or two Pereira left hands Cheesy Either DDP gonna knock out Strickland (more likely) or Strickland wont have enough power to penetrate DDP stone chin (DDP by UD)Cheesy

Whenever there is a surprising outcome, people always speculate whether it was due to underperforming favourite or overperforming underdog, so nothing new here.
I don't know, the first time I've ever heard about Du Plessis was when he got knocked out by Soldic (a dominant champion of KSW at that time), so maybe that's why I'm a bit sceptical of his stone chin.

I think both of them are similar in a sense that none of them is exceptional (not materials for a long-reigning champions) and both are "just" decent fighters, but Strickland has better cardio, which shifts the odds in his favour.

Colvington was one of the best Welterweights of his time. Even though he never won the title because Kamaru Usman was too strong at that time. I still think Colvington is a dangerous opponent for Edwards. People hated Colvington because of the trashtalk he had and the dirty words that came out of his mouth. But actually he is a good person. I once saw a video on YouTube when a fan asked him a question and how he responded. Hopefully I can still find video footage.

I know which video you're talking about, he essentially admitted it was all just an act.
But this only shows how committed he is to his career. If he's willing to take all the heat for being the "bad guy", he will also take training and preparation seriously, to not let all that effort go to waste.

I think he's going to win this one.
674  Economy / Speculation / Re: Coinbase App Store rank as a market top indicator on: December 12, 2023, 11:14:47 PM
So one reliable indicator is when the Coinbase app is #1 downloaded app on the App Store.

It has very reliability predicted pretty much the 2 tops in 2021 and the top in 2017.
(...)

Thanks. I was looking for reliable indicators of determining whether or not we're at the top (started a topic somewhere) and this one is actually pretty good. I wouldn't use it as a sole indicator, but combined with a few others, it could work pretty well.
It's essentially a better version of the taxi driver rule ("if your taxi driver starts talking about crypto - we reached the peak").
675  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The shorter the time you spend the better on: December 12, 2023, 11:07:36 PM
(...)
Do you agree or disagree? Drop your reason why.

If your logic is: "the longer the time you spent the more you lose", then why would you propose to spend any time on gambling at all? Wouldn't the best strategy be just not to play?
But some gambling activities, such as sports betting, could be profitable, as they don't follow strict math rules and players can find opportunities where they have an advantage over the house. But even then, you have to account for the time spent on analysing odds/statistics etc or on watching games. Oftentimes it's just not worth it, e.g. if you make $20 profit but invest 8h of your time to achieve that, you effectively worked for $2.5/hour.
676  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Who should quit, and why? on: December 12, 2023, 10:54:00 PM
In a situation where the both spouse are gamblers. Husband gambles, wife gambles, how can both of them manage the situation in terms of finance and the family affairs especially when children are now involve so that the time both spends on gambling doesn't affect family moments and affairs in general.

Would it help if  one of the couple quit for the other and if that's the case who should quit for who.

They should run a monthly contest, whoever is less profitable must quit.
But seriously, are we talking about some gambling addiction here? If excessive gambling is disrupting their lives, both should quit obviously. It's unlikely any of them is making a profit, so it's just ruining a family for the chase of dopamine — a deplorable picture.
677  Local / Polski / Re: Ogólne rozmowy na temat kampanii sygnatur on: December 12, 2023, 06:58:26 PM
Na wszystko jest rozwiązanie. Masz do zamieszania 1 BTC? Wpłacasz na kasyno 0.01 BTC i stawiasz na czerwone. Przegrałeś trudno, wpłacasz kolejne. Wygrałeś, wyciągasz 0.02 BTC i wychodzisz na zero. Powtarzasz aż do wymiksowania wszystkiego. przy 100 próbach szczęście/pech staje się mało istotny i działa statystyka, co przy dobrym kasynie, na rulecie z jednym zerem daje 2.8% fee za miksowanie, a są gry takie jak dice, które oferują elastyczne ryzyko/wygrana i zwykle najmniejszy house edge wynoszący nawet 0.5-2%. Masz inne kwoty na wejściu, inne na wyjściu, opóźnienia czasowe i wszystko co tylko sobie wymarzysz. Do tego możesz używać kilku kasyn.

100 razy moze byc troche za malo zeby przestac liczyc na szczescie, patrzac na statystyki zyskow niektorych kasyn (typu dice), nawet przy milionach zakladow dewiacje miedzy zyskiem rzeczywistym a oczekiwanym potrafily byc naprawde spore. Jezeli pamiec mnie nie myli to najdluzsza czarna seria w martingale (na JustDice) wynosila cos okolo 34 przegranych z rzedu na zakladach ~50%.

Poprawcie mnie jezeli sie myle ale chyba robienie zakladow nie jest wogole potrzebne, w wiekszosci kasyn depozyty i tak laduja do tego samego portfela (hot wallet) i wyplaty nie (koniecznie) ida z tego samego adresu. Wiec granie lub nie niekoniecznie cokolwiek tu zmienia.
Problem tu lezy w tym, ze adresy z tego samego portfela (depozyt i wyplata) mozna bedzie skojarzyc, wiec nie jest to naskuteczniejszy sposob na mixowanie.

678  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 12, 2023, 06:31:59 PM
I would got with DDP. People say that Strickland got his belt by accident, but Du Plessis is just a phenomenon in middleweight. His striking is something hard to describe. There are not specific fighting style in his striking. He is just like... Imagine you are at redneck disco, everyone got drunk and a fight starts. You swing and throw hands everywhere, on any angle, any speed, any power. You get yourself hit with a log, mugs got smashed on your head, but you stay like that is nothing. Then you throw a right backfist under your knee and land it left side of opponents temple, and knock him down. That is the style of Du Plessis. He is like bull that only goes forward and dont have reverse gear. Block everything with open head, strike like heavyweight and one could read where his strike would go from.
Grin

My first thought was to go with DPP, but on a second thought, I think Strickland is a bit underrated (despite holding the belt), people assume that since he's got a big mouth he must be lacking in skills. He might not be as strong as Dricus but his cardio is A LOT better and can be relentless in his attacks (as demonstrated fighting Adesanya). Du Plessis has been very effective so far but seems to be gassing out quite early and gets hit quite a lot. So if he doesn't finish Sean in the first two rounds, he probably won't make it.

I don't really mind either of them winning. But after Adesanya took a break and Pereira moved up, there aren't many others worthy of the title shot, unless Chimaev gets the chance despite being ranked #9.
679  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Is my plan legal? Managing the account of a dead person on: December 11, 2023, 09:57:30 PM
I asked this on a judicial forum in the taxation segment. I asked if I was allowed to transfer my bitcoin holdings to a non EU family member to avoid heavy taxation. And that at that stage the coins are not withdrawn to a bank account.

She answered "Cashing out is not a requirement to have acquired the added value. Therefore you will have to pay taxes on this added value the moment you transfer the coins"
(...)

This doesn't even make sense. Cashing out may not be a requirement, but I don't understand where's the "added value" here. You're not gaining anything. Will YOU be required to pay tax if e.g. you gave your car to a family member?

I wouldn't rely on any advice you get from any forum and just ask at the source. You must have some tax helpline that you could call anonymously to get a proper explanation.
680  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 11, 2023, 09:44:47 PM
Now UFC put Tony Ferguson in front of Paddy Pimblett. Tony Ferguson should have quit long ago instead of suffering so many defeats and he would have been well remembered and he is still a hero to me.

To be fair, I'm glad he didn't retire just yet and I really like the match-up against Paddy. I don't think we realise how hard it is to quit something you love and you've been doing all your adult life. If Tony feels he still has it in him and the people want to watch that (I do) then let him. Who knows, maybe he'll surprise everyone and will bounce back.
My money would be on Pimblett but it might not be an easy fight.


I just learnt that Strickland will be fighting DuPlessis in January. That's another interesting fight that could go either way, but I slightly favour Sean.
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