hello again there German community.

Bitcointalk-Nutzername:Mikeywith

Niedrigster Bitcoin-Preis bis 31. Dezember 2023 um 23.59.59 UTC: $19,300

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Thank you both Turbartuluk and 1miau for hosting these events.

To be frank, It's more like certainly, i mean, there is no doubt that their marketing is indeed misleading


This is a subject of debate, see, Nicehash don't publish false data, when they tell you that "today we paid 20% more than the average pool" they are honest about it, it isn't something they can fake or hide, it's pretty easily determined and anyone would call them out on it, what they do instead is make advantage an extraordinary event and paint a picture for people to make them believe this is the norm when it isn't.

Now one can argue that up to this point, they are still "honest", but then when other opposite events happen and they pay 20% less than the average pool, they pretend that it doesn't happen, they keep their mouths shut until another special event that works in their favors happens, and they would use that AGAIN to mislead folks into thinking that Nicehash pays out more.

It's not an easy thing to spot, even for people who have been mining for a very long time, who on earth watches their daily payouts and compare it to other pools, 5 out of 10 miners, maybe, who does that every single day of the year? probably nobody, you need to be keen to catch them, write some code that runs 24/7 to collect all the numbers and then run them by the end of the year, otherwise, you need to get lucky to notice it, so I am willing to bet that the majority of people are not aware of this fact.



I totally agree, I would never tell someone what to do with their gear, or what gear to buy unless they ask for my help/opinion.

الهاش الريت الاجمالي لموقع نايس هاش 4000 petahash يعني انه لايمثل الا 1.2% من الاجمالي, الانخفاض فا الهاش ريت بداء مع بداية هده ال  epoch نظرا لارتفاع درجات الحرارة غير الطبيعي في ولاية تكساس التي تحتوي على مايقارب  46000 بيتا هاش اي مايعادل 14% من اجمالي الهاش ريت حول العالم, حيث تطالب شركات الطاقة المعدنين بالاقفال المؤقت او الترشيد في الاستهلاك (اغلاق جزئي)عند ارتفاع درجات الحرارة وزيادة الطلب على الطاقة, وهدا امر طبيعي يحدث تقريبا كل سنة.

It is evidence that something has indeed happened, but it's not evidence of who made that action, it's really nothing more than a piece of code that sings a message using the mixer's singing address.

It's useful when you don't want to save everything in a database, you can verify the signature to know that address x deposited/withdrew x BTC at x time, and that letter is sent a plain text file, which looks like this:


If my funds didn't show up for any reason, I could still contact Whirlwind with proof that a withdrawal to x address was initiated even if they don't have that stored in a database they could still verify the action. it doesn't prove anything more than that.

On the other side of things, this is what a letter of guarantee when you deposit looks like


If I send funds to bc1qke0e934n3v4dt5lgu7p8r2gvctfq54qhgtun7s and then check my note and it's empty, I can use that as evidence that this address was indeed given to me by Whirlwind, in other words, Whirlwind can't just tell me "we don't own this address, we didn't ask you to deposit funds to it".

So now the user in question is already passed this stage, he has strong evidence that he deposited funds to an address given by Whirlwind which corresponds to a private note, which is why I think at this stage the user must not be ignored when they ask for support.



I assume the majority of users don't understand that the generation of the PK is done in the front end, they probably assume that Whirlwind has a table full of PK which they randomly assigned to different notes, it would be best to advocate for using ones' own PK, ideally, you would want to FORCE the user to enter his own private key generated elsewhere and use that as their note, that way they are unlikely to lose/forget it, but for now, maybe just add a note that says (you can use your own bitcoin private key generated elsewhere instead of using our website to create that)

Most people who use mixers probably know how to safely generate a private key, so along with verifying that they indeed copied it (something like what you suggested) which shouldn't show in the next page, because, in the next page the deposit address is already displayed, it should be displayed in the same page right after the captcha, all that should contribute to fewer user's mistakes.

لا يمكن ان تكون ليبيا تاني اكبر دولة لتعدين البتكوين في العالم, ربما تكون الاول عربيا ولكنها ليس حتى في قائمة اكبر 10 دول, يمكننا الاستناد على شيئين اتنين اولهم دراسة كامبردج حول استهلاك الكهرباء لتعدين البتكوين, حيث تحصلت الجامعة على المواقع الجغرافية لاكبر 3 احواض تعدين وتمكنو من فرز نسبة كل دولة من التعدين وكان نصيب ليبيا 0.14% فقط.

الشي التاني هوا اجمالي استهلاك الطاقة للبتكوين الذي يبلغ على اقل تقدير 14 قيقا وات ساعة سنويا, وهدا رقم كبير جدا يتعدا استهلاك دول صناعية كبرى, مما يعني ان حتى 10% منه فقط لايمكنه التواجد داخل اي دولة عربية, لذلك نسبة ال 0.14% لدولة نامية مثل ليبيا وايران تعتبر منطقية جدا وتزيد من ذقة الدراسة.

بقراءة الخبر والاطلاع على الفيديوات الموجودة على الانترنت يمكن ان اقدر عدد اجهزة التعدين الموجودة في تلك المزرعة بحوالي 23-25 الف جهاز معظهم من اجهزة S9, هدا يعني اجمالي هاش ريت 350 بيتا هاش, طبعا هدا الرقم كبير جدا ومتوسط الدخل اليومي للمزرعة 1 بتكوين  .

في المقابل ان نضرنا الى اجمالي الهاش ريت حول العالم فهو 330,000 بيتا هاش يعني ان تلك المزرعة الكبيرة لا تمثل الا 0.10% من اجمالي الهاش حول العالم, وبالنظر لدراسة كامبردج يمككنا الجزم بأن هده اكبر مزرعة تعدين في ليبيا حيت ان باقي المزارع لو ينكون لها نصيب اكتر من 0.04%.

مايجعل الدول التي تدعم الطاقة ملاذ للمعدنين هوا في الواقع رخص سعر الكهرباء, واحيانا كما حدث مع هده المزرعة ان كان كل الخبر صحيح فأنهم لايدفعون اي شي مقابل الكهرباء وهدا نتيجة الحرب الاهلية التي تشهدها ليبيا وانعدام سيطرة القانون على اراضي البلد, في المقابل مشروع بمثل هدا الحجم في دولة غير مستقرة او دولة تمنع التعدين يعتبر مخاطرة كبيرة لان تكلفته تقدر بالملاين.

That is not true, nicehash doesn't always have the highest payout, contrary to what they advertise, I wrote a whole topic regarding this fact showing how in some periods miners on nicehash lost 26% to 34% of heir profits by not mining directly to a mining pool.

Almost all pools would pay you the same given fees are equal, you would of course exclude the direct scam of Antpool PPLNS and the likes of it which says it's 0% fees but keep 100% of the transaction fees.

Price list update 26/06/2023

Stock:

M30S++110TH  12.2U/TH
M50 118TH 29W    14.2U/TH
M50S 128TH 26W 19.5U/TH
M33s++ 225TH 31w 15U/TH
M53s++  320TH 22W   25.5U/TH

Aug pre-order MOQ 30 pcs

M50S++  160th 21W  25.3U/TH

Hello there German community.

Bitcointalk-Nutzername: Mikeywith

Höchster Bitcoin-Preis bis 31. Dezember 2023 um 23.59.59 UTC: $38,000

Thank you dear 1miau for the invitation, keep up the great work.

In fact, if the price hits 50k it would be very normal and reasonable for dif to hit 80-90, what is not reasonable is hitting that difficulty mark without any major price increase, look at it this way, the price at 30k, diff at 52T and they are still adding gear, judging by how much it cost those large players I did some basic math which shows that even at 60T they are still in the green zone.

so 60T difficulty and 30k BTC works fine for all large players, whichever % you add to the price you can add the same to difficulty and they will still be in the same profit zone more or less

Price at 60k means it's ok for difficulty to go to as high as 120T, all of this is only valid till the halving hits, everything by then will have to reset and new figures will have to take place.

I agree that doubling difficulty from where it stands right now isn't going to be easy at all, it won't happen overnight, same as price going to nearly 200k, but with the assumption that we really do head to 200k, mining factories will ramp-up on the production, the buyers will be buying everything there is, offline gears will come online, power stations will be built accordingly.

As long as there is a free market, the difficulty will always follow price, there is no ceiling, and price moves a lot faster, but hashrate will eventually come.

Now realistically, I don't see us doubling on difficulty for at least a couple of years, even if the price does manage to hit 200k we will still have the halving which makes the value of those 200k equal to just 100k, and then by the time we climb up to say 400k, another halving will come, so this can't be price doing 2x ATH and difficulty doubling forever, I think we will soon (3-5 years) reach a sort of flat curve on both price and hashrate.

True, it all depends on what tools they have in place and how does the calculation take place between those mining farms and the electric company, if they don't have a good mechanism already in place to do all the accounting for actual power consumption vs what is needed on the grid and all that, then it would probably be either 100% load or 0%, we will find out simply by looking at the difficulty change.

If we get a massive 10-14% difficulty drop, then we know those folks had to shut down the main switch, if it's just 4-5% then we know it's a matter or reducing their power to x, which gives the farm operates the change to either underclock their gears or shutdown a % of them, at the end of the day, if you limit to x amount of power I can use, it's probably up to me how I wanna use it.



Do miners and server hosts locate in Texas for any good reason? is the power cheaper than the average cold states? I'd imagine it cost a ton of money to cool server rooms in the summer, no amount of airflow can fix that, they are going to spend about 1/3 of their power just for cooling, is power cheap enough to offset that during the summer?

It is useful for them, they need to announce it in order to raise funds, so it's either they secretly announce the specs to the investor or the investors would blindly invest in the project which is likely the case.


That's a good point, and that is just the software level, this is going to be a combination of both software and hardware, Intel tried to make mining chips and sold them to mostly western companies (U.K, U.S, and Canadain based) such as Hive Blockchain Technologies, and ARGO, it's evident that all of them failed in competing with the Chinese giants, and intel had to stop it's mining chips production.

Blockstream is now probably limited to TSMC (Bitmain's friend) or Samsung (MicroBT's friend), they need to outperform the chip design and cost. So unless they have invented or discovered something new, it will be very difficult to beat the Chinese in this regard, and all of this could just be another failed project.

That won't have the same effect on the miner's temperature, I am not an expert in physics but I run close to 10ph farm and I can tell you that underclocking your hashrate by 10% is more effective than shutting down 50% of your gears, provided that you are already exhausting enough air volume to match the miners' need, when temps are 45c, even if you oversize your air intake and exhaust the miners will have a hard time running stable with intake temps that high.

Lowering the miner's frequency and voltage while keeping the same airflow will drastically drop the temperature, I set all my Whatsminers on low mode (18-20% hashrate drop which translates to 20-24% power drop ), and now they run just fine in temps ranging from 40c to 45c, if I keep them at stock settings and shut down half of them, they miners will still get hot, pretty damn hot actually.

As for "spending time tweaking settings" it really takes no more than 10 seconds to manually send the command to the miners, takes no more than 10 mins to write a script or instruct your management software (like AwesomeMiner) to automatically switch between different power modes based on whatever parameters you see fit, if I can do it, I am pretty certain those large players can do it better.


that would be a different story then, also, not clear if it has to be a complete shutdown or can be partial based on whatever the grid needs at any given moment.

According to the weather forecast, temps can go to as high as 45c, there is no amount of air cooling that could handle it with miners running at stock speed, so it's either water chillers, ACs, or some serious underclocking.


It's estimated that Texas has 14% of the global hashrate, they could probably get away with 20-30% underclocking, so that is no more than 2.8%-4% on the global scale, and that assumes other miners in colder places are not going to keep adding any gear, so in the best case scenario difficulty just remains somewhat flat, so instead of the usually 2-3% spikes, we go to -1 to 1% adjustments till the heat is gone, but 10% is just way too much.

A higher hashrate on its own means nothing, it's always a combination of price, efficiency, hashrate, and lifespan.

An example, Bitmain can overclock their S19 XP and get 20% more hashrate at the expense of both efficiency and lifespan, or, they could underclock it to gain more efficiency and lifespan at the expense of both price and hashrate, stuffing more chips to get a 500th miners is something they do in a few weeks if they want to, but they will end up with a huge miner that draws a lot of power and won't sell easily.

Looking at the history, I don't remember there has not been a single year where all large ASIC makers didn't bring in a new model to the market, also, in some years they made a few models, it all depends on the market condition.

With that said really, I don't know what is the purpose of your question when I read this part


This will always be the case, looking at the most efficient air-cooled miner in the market right now which is the M50s++, if you were to ignore the cost, that miner makes a ton of profit in comparison to the power it needs to run, but that won't be the case forever, difficulty will keep growing, they will make better gears in the future, just like how the old miners such as Antminer S9 or MicroBT M10 are now pretty useless despite being at most efficient gears at one point in time.

As a person who mines Bitcoin, you need to understand that there will be no point in the future where you can just buy X gear and expect it to stay profitable forever, you will always have to assume that at some point in the future, the miner will make less than what costs in energy, also, taking into account the lifespan of these miners one should always assume that those gears will either die or stop making a profit in a few years.

So your buying model must be realistic, makes exactly no sense to buy a mining gear that can't ROI in 2 years at current difficulty, because that will only get worse as time moves on, but as long as your ROI is reasonably short (6-12) months you can somehow safely be sure that you will hit ROI and make some more profit before that gear is either no longer profitable or functional.

This is a never-ending game, you need to keep chasing the market, increasing your hashrate, lowering your power consumption, mining as a business is far from easy.

Well, it would be pretty useless to announce the specs when the miner is at least a year away from coming to the market, this will only make competitors aware of the specs and rush to make a better/cheaper one.

With that said, I don't imagine they will have much success in competing against Bitmain and MicroBT, if the miner is made in the U.S and isn't subject to the U.S tax on Chinese products that would give them a 20% price advantage when selling to U.S miners, but will that be enough to offset the manufacturing cost in the U.S vs China? I highly doubt it.

Besides, Bitmain is already ahead in this regard and they started migrating the production out of China to places like Malaysia, MicroBT has some production in Thailand, so that tax advantage can't be there forever, I don't see a bright future for this project, but let's wait and see.

I correct a typo in your post, hope you don't mind.

For 1th to make 40 cents at the current diffuclty we would need BTC price to be at 170k, and for that to happen without difficulty at least doing a double has exactly zero chances unless it happens overnight, but hey, 20 cents would do just fine.

S7 vs S9 is a massive improvement, the chip size is 28nm vs 16nm, and then you got Asicboost (we don't know if they had that on the s7 or not, but we don't have any figures to compare anyway), so an S9 without Asicboost it would be more like 1500w and 14th instead of 1250-1280 and 14th, which in self is a very large improvement.


Is that due to technical constraints or more like economic constraints?  I also doubt we get there anytime soon, but I'd guess it's more of the cost than the ability, I mean if you could sell a 15w/th or 20w/th gear like there is no tomorrow, why increase the cost? in fact, I think as it stands right now Bitmain can probably make S19 xp hash at 16-17w/th, and MicroBT can make M50s++ hash at 15-16w/th, but the cost would be extraordinarily higher and will probably not have any market value with the current price and difficulty.

It's pretty amazing how we keep climbing up the efficiency ladder, taking Bitmain is an example and ignoring everything prior to AsicBoost because that was a game changer, I gathered the small piece of info below ignoring all the "T" models and some variation of some models that I don't see relevent.


I have little to no knowledge of semiconductors design or manufacturing, but it doesn't seem like we still have too much room for improvement on the chip level, so maybe they'd start putting more chips on a single board, lowering the frequency and voltage to achieve the best efficiency at the expense of price, with more focus on the firmware level.

Where do you see mining efficiency in the coming few years, any chance we drop below 10w/th? I am interested in hearing your thoughts.

اعتذر اخي فأنا لم اقصد انك انت من قال ان السعر سيرتفع ولكن مؤخرا في كل مكان سواء على الفيسبوك او على التليقرام, ارى الكثير من الناس يحضرون انفسهم لارتفاع جنوني في السعر بسبب هدا ال ETF واعتقد ان هدا الاعتقاد سائد بين 90% من الناس الذين انظمو الى عالم الكريبتو حديثا, فكانت هده فرصة لكي انوه على نقطة ارتفاع السعر بصفة عامة وليس كتعقيب على كلامك وانا تعمدت عدم اقتباس اي نص من نصوصك لكي لايبدو ان الكلام موجه لك ولكن هدا هوا حال العالم الافتراضي, من المستحيل ايصال المعلومة للغير بالطريقة الي نريدها.

شكرا لك وتقبل مروري.