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981  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Graphene ($GFN) Layer-1 Sharding Blockchain- Game Changer on: October 30, 2022, 07:48:25 AM
hahah this is not layer 1 coin if you still using BSC as the gate of your coin layer 1 is not depend on any other chain

most layer-1 solution started with placeholder on other chain just to collect founds, be listed and traded before releasing final product. BNB ICO took place in 2017 on ETH network. BNB bep-2 chain was lauched in 2019, 2 years later. BSC was lauched in 2020. Same with VET, ZIL, ADA and many more.
So its possible that final product is not yet finished and they are using BSC as a placeholder. But its also far more possible that they are just trying to scam everyone and final produt will never be delivered Smiley especially with such unrealistic promises.
982  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Doge coin of fire, the master is now on the throne on: October 30, 2022, 06:54:35 AM
Have you noticed the bull run with dogecoin when Elon musk got hold of tweeter. Dogecoin is around $0.13 now. This is no surprise for dogecoin hodlers I believe and now that Elon is in charge more bull soon is expected.

Do you think the bull is from the increase of bitcoin to $20k or because Elon musk is on the tweeter throne. What is our thoughts ?

nah. Its just pump and dump shame. I doubt its connected to twitter purchase. Doge shilling was never censored. Anyone could talk about doge whatever they want. Its not like people were banned due to talking about doge before. So for doge ... nothing will change.

BNB should pump instead of doge because CZ confirmed participating as equity investor.

Changpeng Zhao said Binance had wired some $500 million “two days ago” as part of the move.

So its a big deal for bnb not doge.
983  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Alters for Next Bull Market on: October 29, 2022, 09:54:05 AM
i also tell people not to be putting money in altcoins, maybe some might even be worth it, but in the long run altcoins just disappeared or will drop in price a lot, that's why I say just invest in bitcoin, but from what I see many people are still chasing 100X profits, that 100X profit greed that makes people go buy altcoins

Yep. People seam to forget where this 100x comes from. That alcoin market is not a place where wealth magically show up. If you made 100x means that, on average, 100 people with similar investment went bust loosing whole investment. There is no way to bypass that math. This is a zero sum game. When you earn, others lose. Or even negative sum game, because exchange take its fee, arbitrage traders take their fee, market makers takes their fee + insiders, scammers, rug-pullers etc.

So even if its a zero sum game (which is not, its far worse), who is the "wealth/money donor" if even newbies can invest in altcoin? "I won't advice newbies to stay away from altcoin investment" as YellowSwap said.
984  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: October 29, 2022, 08:46:10 AM
Popatrzmy na to tak: jeżeli coś jest stabilne, to potrzebny jest jakiś zewnętrzny impuls by zmienić położenie, tak?
Zwłaszcza te słynne czarne łabędzie jak akcja z ropą i spadek jej ceny albo Szwajcarzy i wspomniany szok na franku.

Tylko, że bitcoin jest daleki od stabilizacji. To co widzimy obecnie, to nie jest stabilizacja, z której wybicie może być tylko zewnętrzne. Mi to bardziej przypomina ciszę przed burzą. 2 lwy stojące na przeciwko siebie, gotowe do ataku, czekające na odpowiedni moment.


A co może być takim wydarzeniem w przypadku BTC? W ETH przynajmniej jest jakaś jednostka która może coś zdecydować, a w BTC? Jakaś zmiana która spowoduje że np. będzie 3x więcej transakcji w bloku? Tego typu rzeczy.
Albo impuls przyjdzie z zewnątrz, np poprzez uznanie i akceptację - tylko takie poważne, a jednorazowe akcje typu „kup teslę za crypto”.
No więc nie bardzo widzę skąd może się wziąć jakis sensowny impuls zmieniający cenę.

BTC przecież cały czas się rozwija. Nie tak dawno mielismy aktualizację taproot. Są pomysły na sidechainy, coraz głośniej mówi się o stablecoinach na BTC.
985  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Alters for Next Bull Market on: October 29, 2022, 07:41:46 AM
Bitcoin is the safest investment but altcoins have the highest return, in 2021 a altcoin turns 1500$ to 18,000$ for me, can bitcoin do the same? No of course, I won't advice newbies to stay away from altcoin investment, there are so many good altcoins with high chances of returns if the research is done right.

My friend put 3$ in lottery and won 100 000$. Why trade bitcoin/altcoins if you can gamble your money in lottery? Of cource i'm just kidding here but I want to show that the fact that you turned 1500$ into 18 000$ does not mean its a good advice for everyone. You may just be lucky. One person trade is too small sample to act as evidence supporting the thesis. There are more than 20 000 tokens. 19950 are copy/paste shitcoins made to scam investors only. Most of them will sooner or later go to 0.  "can bitcoin do the same? No of course"

I would strongly advice newbies staing far from altcoins. BTC, ETH, BNB and maybe 5 more are worth the research. If you think there are "so many good altcoins" - make a list of 10.
986  Economy / Speculation / Re: So are bond traders right… or is this time different? on: October 28, 2022, 08:21:15 PM
Seems that stock traders think fed will mention the word "pivot" and the bond traders are calling bluff on that.

I don't think they will call "pivot" so soon. "Fear game" also helps fighting inflation. Calling the end of tightening means stock pump and "wealth effect" which lead to increased consumer spending that boost inflation. I think they will act hawkish as long as possible.

Check this - Janet Yellen may have an evil plan trading treasuries behind Jerome Powell back- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgCRj5d4Sqs&ab_channel=GeorgeGammon
987  Economy / Speculation / Re: So are bond traders right… or is this time different? on: October 28, 2022, 03:25:38 PM
So it seems that bonds are taking a bid, a very small one but they are rallying and 10 year is below the 4%. There was some report about the next fed statement being very dovish and fed saying there is going to be a pivot.

No idea if the source is legit but Blackrock is saying to clients that the fed will ease the pace of the hikes after next weeks 75 bps hike. Most likely the remaining 2 hikes will only be 25 bps.

Yep. Its possible that we will see some printing soon. Many economists warns about bullwhip effect. I expect that high inflation will stay with us at least for decade but it will not be a constant price grow. I expect to see something symilar to 1980 and 1940. Inflation, disinflation, even more inflation, disinflation and so on. Both in 1980 and 1940 we had 3 inflation waves. Each consecutive one was stronger then previous one:



So if economists are right about bullwhip effect and history is about to repeat itself than we should very soon see a inflation dump and FED pivot to "help with rising unemployment". what happend in 1980 after first wave of inflation? Stock pumped to new ATH (just to dump to new lowest low after inflation second wave hit the economy). Would be nice to see BTC back at 60k Smiley



blue - inflation
orange - sp500
988  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: October 28, 2022, 03:02:34 PM
A czy ustabilizowanie się ceny nie ma swoich plusów? Pomijając dyskusję o wycenie to czy nie zamknęłoby to (przynajmniej w jakiejś mierze) handlu i pozwoliło skupić się/znaleźć inne, praktyczniejsze zastosowanie? Chcąc być traktowanym jako waluta trzeba zachować jakiś umiar, pary walutowe nie skaczą nagle, nie robią po dziesiątki procent zmian.


Bo ich kurs jest manipulowany przez banki centralne i zakotwiczenie cen w głowach inwestorów. Mechanizmy te nie są niestety odporne na ataki lub nagłe skoki cen. Przykładów daleko nie trzeba szukać. Przekonali się o tym frankowiecze, jak w ciągu 3 miesięcy kurs CHF/PLN spompował się o 40%. Kolejnym przykładem może być "czarna środa" w 1992 podczas której funt brytyjski spadł o 10%.

Ze wzrostem będzie spadała zmienność, ale obecna kapitalizacja jest jeszcze za mała na to, zmienność jest naturalna, a 4 miesiące leżenia na plecach przy blisko zerowej zmienności nie uspokaja a wręcz przeciwnie. Budzi strach, bo jak już ruszymy to nie wiem czy 10k utrzyma. lub 40k jeśli wybijemy w górę.
989  Economy / Economics / Re: What do you think of gold price in long term? on: October 27, 2022, 09:57:51 AM
Why you need a safe haven (gold) when dollar is strong? That's why we don't see a gold rush right now. DXY is hitting new high day after day.

DXY vs gold:


And why dollar is strong now? I do believe its because of dolar milkshake theory - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa6UXR4hvgE&ab_channel=RealVisionFinance

I also believe that sooner or later we will see a "Plaza Accord 2.0" or "world de-dolarizing" playing a bigger role and DXY dump combined with GOLD pump. And the fact that average person is dumping because "gold is not going up in last years" while China and India are buying tons of gold makes me even more certain about my gold investment.

Gold is with us, as money, for more than 2500 years. Debt base monetary system is with us for last 50 years and everything points at its collapse as a "failed experiment". Average hause in US in 1920 was worth 6000$ !
"So starting with a nice good-size home the cost was about $6,300. If you got an apartment in NYC the rent was $60 a month."https://www.familytree.com/blog/prices-in-the-1920s/
 Dollar lost 95% of purchasing power in last 90 years.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-CUUR0000SA0R/

Don't dump gold to hold $ - "experimental currency" only because of short term price performance.

Dollar purchasing power vs gold price in last 50 years

Hell yea its inflation headge. Inflation is with us not only when it spike to 10% and the market (and asset evaluation) is dominated by panic and unrest creating "misevaluation" that we, smart investors, can take advantage of. Inflation was with us for last 90 years and gold worked well in long term.
990  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Macro factors might Hit BTC to bloody on: October 27, 2022, 09:33:32 AM
As per my understanding.

we only focus on micro factors ,

Who are "we"? Because, based on my observations, bitcointalk crypto community is talking far more about FED, interest rates, inflation, war in threads related to price prediction rather than bitcoin fundamentals, lighting network adoption, future forks, stable coins on bitcoin blockchain, halving, bitcoin side chains or even chart itself.
991  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: October 27, 2022, 09:06:34 AM
Bitcoin przebija opory i notowany jest najwyżej od 1.5 miesiąca. Przebiliśmy linię trendu spadkowego, która trzymała kurs od 5 miesięcy (maj 2022). Na upartego przebiliśmy tez główną linię trendu spadkowego sięgającą ATH. Dynamika jest zacna. Jedyne czego można sie przyczepić, to brak pompy na wolumenie i wciąż dużo niepewności w gospodarce. Czyżby kolejny fake?
992  Economy / Speculation / Re: Next big bull rally expected to begin in 2023 Q2 says Mark Yusko on: October 27, 2022, 08:53:31 AM
over $1 dollars short position trader's money was liquidated when bitcoin increased above $20000 recently.

I think it was much higher than "1$ dollars" Smiley

Quote
The anticipation of the next Bitcoin halving will spark a crypto rally in 2023 regardless of the grim macroeconomic picture, according to hedge fund manager Mark Yusko.

1st halving was important. It reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Thats a big deal. Second halving decreased monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from like 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. So my bet is that halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions etc. Bitcoin will be more like an asset that act sometimes like gold on steroids sometimes like sp500 on steroids rather than it will fallow "bubble x days before each halving scheme"
993  Economy / Speculation / Re: So are bond traders right… or is this time different? on: October 25, 2022, 06:54:13 AM
Stocks are rallying. Bonds are selling off.

I don't see a stock rally. ~6% from the bottom is not a rally in my opinion.

If I was forced to judge who is right I would say that bonds investors. Mostly because US bond market is much bigger - worth ~$50 trillion while stock market only ~$25 trillion but... from the other hand its common to see a smaller market to act like an indicator for bigger market because its much easier to move it and its easier, for a whale, to dump less liquid asset when whole market is pumping. For instance BTC ATH was 2 months before SP500 ATH.

But to my knowledge bonds and stocks are mostly moving in different directions. For instance in 2008, when stocks were hitting bottom, bonds spiked to ATH. So its not about who is right.



SP500 and TLT(ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF) on monthly charts.
994  Economy / Speculation / Re: A good observer makes a better speculator on: October 24, 2022, 10:16:21 AM
long bullish candle formed on 23rd October 2022 around 18:00 GMT +1 where price moved from $19,200 to around $19,611

Its not that this candle was long or strong. Its the scale that makes it looks like that. Bitcoin is locked in consolidation for last 4 months. Volatility is constantly going down. Last 1.5 month bitcoin is going super flat. Thats why as small as 400$/2% daily candle looks so impressive on small scale. But not so long ago we've seen 5x longer candles -f.e 10% daily bullish candle 09.09.2022 19200-21300. Or 10x stronger -4000$ daily bearish candle 26500-22400 (-15%) in 13.06.2022
995  Economy / Economics / Re: We are facing a new recession ten years after the previous one... on: October 24, 2022, 09:39:37 AM
The chart shows that wages have increased by €1000 over 12 years "average"

https://www.statista.com/statistics/416212/average-annual-wages-ireland-y-on-y-in-euros/

So I was right about small sample error.

"Everyone you know" most likely is from the same country, most likely from the same region, most likely with symilar education level etc. Also "

You only needed to cross the Ireland/UK border to have complete oposite view. Because average salary there pumped by 20% from 2008. - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1002964/average-full-time-annual-earnings-in-the-uk/
Pumped by 16% in germany - https://www.statista.com/statistics/416207/average-annual-wages-germany-y-on-y-in-euros/
by 25% in France - https://www.statista.com/statistics/416204/average-annual-wages-france-y-on-y-in-euros/
by 42% in USA - https://www.statista.com/statistics/200838/median-household-income-in-the-united-states/
996  Economy / Economics / Re: We are facing a new recession ten years after the previous one... on: October 24, 2022, 05:23:47 AM
Everyone I know is earning less now than before the last recession 2008/2009, I can vouch
for what the OP is saying on that point.

"Everyone I know" is not a valid argument in any conversation because it has a small-sample error. "Everyone you know" most likely is from the same country, most likely from the same region, most likely with symilar education level etc. Also "Everyone I know" is impossible to verify, impossible to challenge and impossible to discuss further.

The only thing I can say here is - Everyone I know is earning more now than before the last recession 2008/2009.

Also you did not mention if you are talking about lower salary or lower purchasing power of salary.
997  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Bonds on: October 23, 2022, 07:02:19 AM
1- bonds are issued by company/government not to create "fixed income asset" for others but to collect founds. So we would need someone who would like to borrow against the strongest asset of last decade instead of fiats that are going down day after day. Gambler/speculant would do that but not big companies/government
2- bonds are popular with fiats because every fiat owner needs to fight inflation 24/7. Average home in US in 1920 cost 6000$! With bitcoin you don't need to fight.
3- "If someone thinks that the price of BTC is likely to increase in the coming years then he would be inclined to bid up the USD side of the contract, whereas someone who is convinced BTC will fall in price will bid up the BTC side." - why not simply short/long using futures?
998  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Limit order higher or lower than spread in opposite side? on: October 23, 2022, 06:44:35 AM
For example, someone set ask BTC/USDT limit offer to sell 1 BTC for 19000 USDT. In same time i setup limit order to buy 1 BTC, for example, by 19100 USDT..

In this case I got 1 BTC and i'll pay for 19100 USDT. The seller whose order I paid will receive 19000 USDT.
Where is 19100 -19000 = 100 USDT ? This is exchange profit or I wrong and exchange will not allow you to place such order?

Exchange matching engine operates on the first come first serve basis. So If someone come and place sell order of 1 BTC for 19000 USDT and there is no one that offers to buy at this price or higher than this order, unfilled, land in orderbook waiting to be filled. And now when you place buy order of 1 BTC at a price 19100 USDT your order goes to matching engine that check in orderbook if any seller is offering this price or lower. In our case there is a 19 000$ sell order which is being filled. So in situation you just described you just bought BTC for 19 000 even though your buy offer had price of 19 100. This 100$ stays at your wallet only because 19 000$ sell order was send to exchange before your order.
999  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Alters for Next Bull Market on: October 23, 2022, 06:33:18 AM
with higher market caps with lower price and supply

Marketcaps = price * supply so its impossible to find high marketcap coin with low supply and price.

For next bull market i suggest all newbies and intermidiate investors to stay with bitcoin. 99% of altcoins are just pump and dump shames, bitcoin is bitcoin. And bitcoin is growing the fastest during first part of each bull run. So you accumulate btc during bear market, dump to altcoins in the middle of bull cycle when they lift off and outperforming. And top 300 is way to far. Stay with Top 50 CMC if you are not a pro or insider.
1000  Economy / Economics / Re: We are facing a new recession ten years after the previous one... on: October 22, 2022, 11:57:22 AM
Over the past years we had faced an economic growth considering that interest rates had started reaching lows and people had started spending money.
The last months, possibly during summer 2022 and some months after Putin's invasion to Ukraine we experience a new recession, almost ten years after the previous one.

I think that the problem is global - and not specific to my country. Gas prices are soaring, prices for items for basic needs etc. toilet paper are increased by 25-30% and bread, milk eggs and food in general are higher in price for almost 40%.

On the other hand, I cannot see any increase in salaries and see that we are in a stable economic situation. Having said that, the purchasing power of consumers is decreased, and inflation keeps increasing in rates.

Elon Musk said in an interview that this situation is going to continue till Spring 2024.

This painful situation has a major impact to all aspects, even cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is not going to recover if the economic situation is not going to be reversed. This stems from the fact that neither investor not crypto startups will take the risk to invest money right now.

If Musk is true, we are going to see only the strong ones survive during those two years...

1- Elon Musk is not an authority on the global economy. His opinion does not mean much here.
2- "I cannot see any increase in salaries" - wrong
3- "I think that the problem is global - and not specific to my country" - sure its global. Its hard to find a country that is not affected
4- "The crypto market is not going to recover if the economic situation is not going to be reversed" The market bottom is always weeks before the worst days right when there is the most bad news and it looks like its only going to be worse. So its possible that we already bottomed even though the macro looks terrible.
5- Its hard for assets to continue to go down if thing that they are evaluated in (fiats) is going down at a rate of 10% annually.
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