We are far to off-topic, so this is my last bit. Natural Law in my view is not a complete political choice and the "spectrum" here is quite simplistic and incomplete. The concept of natural law is extremely old, I do recall that even some old Christian theologists of the middle ages argued the existence of an absolute law embedded in the fabric of humanity, etc. But it is absolutely insufficient for modern complex societies. If you chose to control your own life in full, then yes, you would need to live on your own... even in your own world, because the moment you live with others you have to concede part of that control to a set of rules of convivence. You may enjoy a great degree of self-determination, never a full one. In the extreme cases, all is ruled by the " great Leviathan". |
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Supplying arms to country that you're planning to invade. It just doesn't makes sense. But it can be said about most of Branko posts.
Again, you have problem with reading...I never mentioned invasion Also, what do you think, is it fair that former 2nd biggest Poland city of Lvov is now part of Ukraine thanks to Stalin? As far as I am concerned, the decision to join and leave an state is to be taken by the current inhabitants of the place, be it a city, a region or any other. There is no reason why someone should govern you against your will - all this as a principle, it would not be practical to have a referendum every month or declare a state with 10 people. Anything else is just medieval thinking - e.g. Guy XYZ gave this to this country... was it his to give in the first place? I think you are too used to liven under a leash. Historically the southern Zakarpattia oblast (Berehove) was part of the Kingdom of Hungary since its foundation in the year 1000. Later it was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire until World War I. It was also part of the "West Ukrainian National Republic". The "Transcarpathian Hungarians" want to be part of Europe, but are held "hostage" in Ukraine with the created artificial border. There is a massive natural border the "Trans-carpathian mountain" range with only a handful or roads connecting with Ukraine. Thats why i am a self-sovereign and govern myself. If someone wants to be part of Jonestown cult, Covid cult or any other group he things he belongs to, so be it.  Thanks for the historical note, very interesting. I guess there is always a case to create a state or a new country and, in my experience of the world, there is always people willing to promote it - usually to take advantage of it. But still, I think that being in a state, empire or organisation should be just a matter or deciding what is best for people, by people. The Anarchism and self-sovereignty is very appealing, but usually not realistic. We are social animals and would find it hard to survive alone. |
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Supplying arms to country that you're planning to invade. It just doesn't makes sense. But it can be said about most of Branko posts.
Again, you have problem with reading...I never mentioned invasion Also, what do you think, is it fair that former 2nd biggest Poland city of Lvov is now part of Ukraine thanks to Stalin? As far as I am concerned, the decision to join and leave an state is to be taken by the current inhabitants of the place, be it a city, a region or any other. There is no reason why someone should govern you against your will - all this as a principle, it would not be practical to have a referendum every month or declare a state with 10 people. Anything else is just medieval thinking - e.g. Guy XYZ gave this to this country... was it his to give in the first place? I think you are too used to liven under a leash. |
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It looks like another Yugoslavia is planned in place of Ukraine. A draft law on amendments to the Law on Ratification of the Treaty on Good Neighborly Relations and Cooperation between Romania and Ukraine has been submitted to the Senate of Romania. Romania wants to annex part of the territories of Ukraine, which it considers historically its own - this is, in a nutshell. LOL, you really post this kind of stuff seriously? You're saying that Romania wants to annex part of Ukraine territory, when actually it's just one pro-Russian politician. She is only member of party in Senate, she is in opposition and her word doesn't have no weight. You can find such people in most of parlaments in Europe, but in most cases it's minority without power. If you want to push agenda that Romania or Poland want to annex West of Ukraine, you have to try harder. You forgot Hungary too...all 3 countries lost territories that Stalin stole after WW2 and annexed to CCCP, todays Ukraine I am sure they are all jumping at the opportunity Branko. They have seen how easy is to take land from Ukraine. You just have to declare a military "operation", send over thousands of tanks, hundreds of thousands of people, support the international backlash, the tens of thousands of dead coming home in bags, be declared a war criminal, get other countries aligned against you... Who wants to be next? Now, do I need to remind you that European democracies rarely go to war after WW II? Particularly, they have not waged war against each other for more than half a century. Hey, who was talking about invasion? After Russia takes east part, they will annex west parts to "protect" them from "evil Russians". revert historical injustices and such Oh, so that happens after the RF takes the west of Ukraine? Well, I guess we will wait to see if that happens. On Romania and their military might, I am not sure, on Poland... well, they have been giving an incredible arsenal to Ukraine. Not exactly what you would do if you plan to "annex" territory from another country. I very much doubt that Ukraine territory will be claimed from the west. Ukraine is a good ally, not like "a good friend" but more like a very good strategic ally. |
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It looks like another Yugoslavia is planned in place of Ukraine. A draft law on amendments to the Law on Ratification of the Treaty on Good Neighborly Relations and Cooperation between Romania and Ukraine has been submitted to the Senate of Romania. Romania wants to annex part of the territories of Ukraine, which it considers historically its own - this is, in a nutshell. LOL, you really post this kind of stuff seriously? You're saying that Romania wants to annex part of Ukraine territory, when actually it's just one pro-Russian politician. She is only member of party in Senate, she is in opposition and her word doesn't have no weight. You can find such people in most of parlaments in Europe, but in most cases it's minority without power. If you want to push agenda that Romania or Poland want to annex West of Ukraine, you have to try harder. You forgot Hungary too...all 3 countries lost territories that Stalin stole after WW2 and annexed to CCCP, todays Ukraine I am sure they are all jumping at the opportunity Branko. They have seen how easy is to take land from Ukraine. You just have to declare a military "operation", send over thousands of tanks, hundreds of thousands of people, support the international backlash, the tens of thousands of dead coming home in bags, be declared a war criminal, get other countries aligned against you... Who wants to be next? Now, do I need to remind you that European democracies rarely go to war after WW II? Particularly, they have not waged war against each other for more than half a century. |
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Where's that Ukrainian 'greatest counter-offensive' we've been hearing about? Last week it was bad weather. This week it's something about new gear and saving Bakhmut or some such. 'Excuses are like assholes', so they say.
...
Yes, no Ukrainian offensive is planned, do not worry. Just keep on throwing the official "truth" here and keep on attacking Bakhmut - it is very important for the RF to conquer another flattened town that is in the middle of nowhere and in artillery range from the other side of the river. You do not have to worry about the nearly state of the art nearly 100 main battle tanks coming from US and Europe and those few hundred IMFV. That is just for defence, so no offensive planned in the next few weeks. Sleep well, read the Pravda, listen to Radio Moscow and keep drinking Stolichnaya. |
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As said, China can cut the lifeline at any moment. I would certainly use that to my advantage and Mr Xi has made a whole life-career of doing exactly that.
While you are cultivating ridiculous Russophobic fantasies here, Mr. Xi has flown to Moscow on a three-day friendly visit, his first high-level retreat since his recent re-election. I am absolutely amazed to how low is your level of trolling this time. How can this be in any manner interpreted as "Russophobia"? Really, you need to broaden your lectures, if you only listen to the official propaganda you will become a dumb zombie. Unless you get paid for it, in which case you will become a paid dumb zombie. No, if Xi needs a retreat he will go to the coast of China and have a private beach and party, not to frosty Moscow. A chief of state visit is never casual. He is there to put forward his demands an put plenty of pressure in Putin's little gonads. China does not like war, they just like buying the world one dollar at a time (perhaps Taiwan might be an exception in the future). Anyway, a wild guess, US stops increasing the military presence near Taiwan, China turns a blind eye on it, Biden stops spending money to get re-elected and appear a man of peace and Putin may get some territory and his own life. China as usual, does business with all happily. Sound like a deal. Zelensky would need to concede, but Ukraine will survive and, in the future, arm itself with NATO weaponry to avoid further adventures. I think we got a deal. After the offensive of course. Ukraine can and will take back plenty of land. |
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So you are suggesting that the sole political ties that bond China and Russia against the West is not enough to show solidarity to each other?
I would have guessed it could be enough, China is an important ally of Putin after all, economically and in terms of political views. Both countries live through authoritarian governments.
If I had to guess, I would say the best Russia has to offer is energy, natural resources and intelligence. The Kremlin could not significantly aid China to take over Taiwan, they barely can push against Ukraine (which has a common border with Russia) and Taiwan is too far from Russia.
Not mentioning that USA would take even more serious an invasion against Taiwan in comparison to what is going on in Ukraine.
No, I am not suggesting. I am clearly stating that China, nor any other country, acts on bonds and solidarity. People have friends, countries have allies, people have solidarity, countries have interests. A common enemy makes a common interest, but not a friendship... because countries do not have friends. There is a price to pay. If China is buying gas, it won't be at full price. If they supply components and manufactured goods, there will be something in return. I am just wondering how big is the bill. China is the only country that matters and is currently maintaining a significant commercial relationship with the Russian Federation. Without the huge exports and imports from China and to China, Putin and his Psychos would not be able to pay for a prolonger war. If anyone thinks that the China Communist Party is doing this for friendship and love should really give it a second thought.
What is the price? Transfering the latest tech? Intelligence data? Support for the future invasion of Taiwan? 50% discount in oil for 10 years? ... Xi Yinping could be now in Moscow asking for pretty much anything he wants - he is got Putin by his little balls.
China makes no sacrifices by cooperating with Russia, this strategic alliance is mutually beneficial. Therefore, I do not understand the question in your formulation, why should Russia pay China anything else, besides what it already pays under the existing agreements. As said, China can cut the lifeline at any moment. I would certainly use that to my advantage and Mr Xi has made a whole life-career of doing exactly that. |
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I've never heard anyone in a real leadership position in Russia make much mention of the use of nuclear weapons at all,
I'm somewhat surprised that neither Russian State media or any of your conspiracy youtubers have discussed the nuclear threats Medvedev has made. He does it all the time. Nobody here in Russia takes Medvedev seriously. It seems that after the death of Zhirinovsky, he occupied the niche of an outrageous freak in the political arena. In short, an ordinary clown like Zelensky. Oh, the mythical counteroffensive... sure, keep your eyes on Bahkmut, no need to notice the 40 thousand motorised troops being massed in the Zaporilla area. Do not look there, nothing is going to happen in the next 3 weeks. Nothing at all. An the explosions in Sebastopol were again, RF soldiers smoking by the gas barrels. There is no resistance and no partisans in the zone. Nothing happening.
Of course, there will be an attempt at a counteroffensive from Ukraine, otherwise why these deliveries of tanks and training courses for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the West. I called it mythical because the chances of success are close to zero. No no... all Leopards, Challengers, Bradleys and Abrams have been destroyed by precision rockets. No offensive action is planned. Just stick to Bakhmut, keet your artillery there, keep using your ammo there and risking the SUs. As you say, there is nothing to fear because the chance of success are so low... in fact, just remove the troops from there and send them to help in Bakhmut. It is much more important than keeping the land bridge to Crimea. As Branko says, it is all part of the plan. ..  Any predictions for where we will be March 2024? I do not know, but I am still buying tanks in good condition. 100 USD per unit, 60 USD if they are Armata because they do not really work, delivered to the Polish border please. I also keen on SPGs like the one there, but without the rust. |
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I think Russia has no reason to take Bakhmut...why chase enemy when other side is readily bringing new soldiers for
easy kill
Have you taken a look at the map? What can you see in the vicinity of Bakhmut? Elevated positions with cover of rocks, trees, hills, river banks? Do you see anything in there that looks like a good attacking position? No, you do not, it is exactly the opposite - You will see a nightmare for the attacker, were they are detected klicks away from the defending positions. Would you like to be the attacker there Branko? Can't people just google before saying something silly? The only reason to attack it is because it is the Donbas and the RF needs to take the Donbas to be able to sell some short of "victory" to the world. Wagnerites are expendable, people from Dagestan and other satellites of Moscow are spendable. As I write this post, I am looking at the videos of Ukrainians training in Leopards. They seem veeeery pleased. Geographically, Bakhmut is located in a lowland, and all the dominant heights around the city have long been controlled by Wagner. I don’t know what political and image dividends Ukraine is trying to extract by continuing to hold the city, but from a purely military point of view, this is madness, comparable to exchanging a bishop for a pawn in a chess game. The sacrifice may be justified if you have a sharp attacking combination play, but now it looks like a rather pathetic attempt to just buy some time to prepare for the mythical counter-offensive to Melitopol to cut the land corridor to the Crimea. It seems that this is the ultimate dream of Ukrainian military strategists. Oh, the mythical counteroffensive... sure, keep your eyes on Bahkmut, no need to notice the 40 thousand motorised troops being massed in the Zaporilla area. Do not look there, nothing is going to happen in the next 3 weeks. Nothing at all. An the explosions in Sebastopol were again, RF soldiers smoking by the gas barrels. There is no resistance and no partisans in the zone. Nothing happening. |
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I do not think there is an advantage to the attacker, irrespectively of the means of each. For what I am getting in interviews the RF does advance, but the cost in lives is very high. Basically they are sending "human decoys" to "detect" Ukrainian positions. Ukraine would have left the place if they felt it was not the right place.
I am going to leave to you to think why have they decided that it is the right place. Why are they there, why are they holding the place and what they may be waiting for. You do not need to be a genius to answer that.
As side note, the range of HIMARS means they do not have to be "there".
Meanwhile, the RF air force has decided that it is ok to down US drones in international waters. I wonder what may happen next.
Himars? What Himars? When was the last time you heard about one? And those "interviews", you really learned nothing from ghost of Kiev, babushkas destroying Russian drones with cucumber jars, and ukrainian grandpas shooting Migs with shotguns? Downing a Mig would take a least a well thrown stone, a shotgun is what sunk the Moskva. Unless that's a fake or someone smoking by the gas tanks. I do not care much about that type of myths, they mean nothing and I do not give credit to interviews on their own. But, there are too many indications, including videos, that Wagner is sending the recruited convicts under threat of execution to the riskier tasks. There is also some video evidence of pretty much suicidal attacks. |
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China is the only country that matters and is currently maintaining a significant commercial relationship with the Russian Federation. Without the huge exports and imports from China and to China, Putin and his Psychos would not be able to pay for a prolonger war. If anyone thinks that the China Communist Party is doing this for friendship and love should really give it a second thought.
What is the price? Transfering the latest tech? Intelligence data? Support for the future invasion of Taiwan? 50% discount in oil for 10 years? ... Xi Yinping could be now in Moscow asking for pretty much anything he wants - he is got Putin by his little balls.
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Well, yes, another ridiculous attempt to make Russia a pariah country by outlawing its president. It is especially hypocritical that this legally insignificant PR action was carried out against the backdrop of the 20th anniversary of the illegal US invasion of Iraq. The International Criminal Court knows full well that it has no authority to try the (with diplomatic immunity) president of a country that has not ratified the Rome Statute. This is another empty informational occasion, not worth much attention, in a politically biased topic that has nothing to do with the economy.
The current government of the RF is making itself a pariah - what would you expect to be if you invade your neighbour and to add, send there troops that are know to rape, steal and kidnap people and have done it before? You are seeking hate, and you get hate. The RF government were also expecting to terrorise others into submission, but that failed. Regarding the ICC, I think they have to rule against Putin because there is so much evidence of war crimes that they do not really have an option not to do it. I do not think is a good idea because it does not get anyone any closer to peace. It is much more difficult to agree the terms of the RF withdrawal from all Ukrainian territories, the return of all the forced deportees and the payment of reparations if the government of Ukraine has to do so with a now convicted international criminal. Politically, much more difficult to be accepted. I hope they do not decide to condemn Lavrov as well. You have to keep the phone line open, even if you are talking to criminals. |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64975766The US military has released footage of a Russian jet crashing into one of its drones over the Black Sea. The US said the damage to the large drone meant it had to be brought down into the water near Crimea on Tuesday. Russia denied its Su-27 fighter jet clipped the propeller of the drone, but the video appears to back up the American version of events. It was in the Pentagon's interest to release this video - not least to verify its version of events. Even with this clear proof that the Russian warplanes assaulted the US drone, Kremlin is still denying that it was an intentional attack. They claimed that the MQ-9 Reaper drone crashed into the Black Sea because of the manoeuvring by the Russian fighter jets. Reuter reported that the two pilots of the Russian jets have been given an award by the defense minister Sergei Shoigu. If this award or recognition is real, it shows that the Russians are pleased with this military incident. The US might be able to overlook this attack because no life was lost but I don't know how long this patience will last. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-defence-minister-decorates-pilots-downing-us-drone-2023-03-17/I would have guessed those drones had some self-destruct mechanism, so the enemy won't get them in one piece, I guess I was wrong.
The Russian military have announced that they have recovered the crashed drone from the sea. This is not the first time a US drone have been brought down. It has been brought down in Iran, Afghanistan and Yemen. Most of these drones have self-destruct systems to avoid transfer of illegal transfer sensitive information and technology. As far as I am concerned, they could announce the resurrection of Lenin and it would have the same credit from me given the massive disinformation effort going on every day and every hour. But yes, as you say, there is not much to be learnt, but still... 100 USD million just for the fun. It is a costly joke to be honest and kind of a statement about the matter of espionage. |
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Seems to me from the stories I’ve read that they were trying to capture the drone? It’s hard to tell. I’ve seen articles where they make it seem like this was an accident and I’ve read articles that this was a clever way to gather our technology. Regardless of the true reason, this does appear to be another escalation towards WWIII. I think the only thing left to make it official is for China to choose sides and engage in military action.
The video has already been released and shows an RF fighter jet literally throwing fuel over the drone to down it, without really "downing it". There is some probability of this being intentional as the US cannot search for it there even if they knew where it fell, but also it is quite difficult for the RF to get anything from there. All summed, it seems that is just the way the RF Airforce shows the finger to the US, by making them loose 100 million (cost of a drone) for fun. |
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Doubting Real Madrid in the Champions League is clearly absurd, but nevertheless they must hope that there is a new candidate as a winner instead of just Real Madrid always filling the title cupboard.
After all not everyone is a fan of Real Madrid, while many people are also fans of the Premier League team which represents one of the best leagues in the world right now. You have to understand otherwise, so it's not because they don't realize Real Madrid's greatness as the king in the Champions League. I'm not even a Real Madrid fan, but I watch their match a lot instead of just talking about it all the time.
Last season many didn't believe Real Madrid will be able to win the Champions league, and this season people don't still have strong believe in real madrid winning the champions. Real Madrid defeating Liverpool in the first and second leg competition speaks a lot about Real Madrid. I believe Real madrid is a strong team that can always get what they want. Real Madrid stands a better chance of winning the champions league this season than every other team in the Champions league. There is a lot of chance involved in winning a major competition. Take for example the world cup, it was between Argentina and France and anyone could have won because they both were perfectly able to succeed at the endeavour. It is the same in all major competitions, there are always 5 or 6 teams that have a go at the win and the randomness is part of the competition. |
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Against the house, I do not think so. However there are some cases, in games that are more open and do not have a built-in bias in which the AIs can win against other players. I do not see any problem in letting an AI play poker and learn until it becomes a decent player. It certainly works with chess and dog-fighting with planes in certain situations. We will have to get used to it. |
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Opinions and predictions are always welcome.
Do you have a percentage of won bets? Or as the user above asked, can you post your past bets?
Besides posting some prediction, I find it interesting to also explain why you made that bet.
I have only made bets on soccer and teams that I know, in the championships that I know. I always try to bet on simple victories, some matches I bet on the number of goals, and once in a while I make some multiple bets (I'm trying to make multiples on the Portuguese championship, it's still in tests).
But I've been getting something like 70% of won bets, approximately, so far I have a small profit in my bankroll.
It is great to count with yet another opinion on bets and another guy claiming to get you the moon (and then giving you cheese) but despite that being perfectly all right, I have thought about the title of the post, slightly misleading, but the concept is something to be discussed. Do you think that some of your bets have been a waste of time? Did you learn anything? |
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https://nypost.com/2023/01/15/gambler-loses-massive-1-4-million-bet-on-chargers-jaguars-game/One bettor wasted a massive $1.4 million wager after betting on Los Angeles before the Jaguars mounted an epic comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30, according to Action Network’s Darren Rovell. It seems that a gambler has loss this massive amount (1.4 million USD) playing a bet with an odds lower than 1.01! (exactly 1.008) I think there are several lessons here: - there is not easy bet! even lower odds there is always a risk. - it's really risky playing an huge amount. This not helps gambler because the risk is much much higher then rewards! - gambling is not easy at all! it's really hard achieve a profit even for easy games! A million dollar for a risk which returns doesn't amount to a significant figure based on the odds. The amount expected to be won doesn't worth the amount of risk exerted and maybe the said gambler didn't think this through because he might have felt it was a good odd for easy win since it was a 1.01 odd but the truth is that in gambling there are no easy win, do your analysis well before executing any bet no matter how attractive the odds might seem. Most of these small odds are deceptive odds that gambling platforms are using to manipulate gamblers as they get carried away by the odd size. I am not sure we would be talking about this situation if the guy had actually won the bet. It must happen from time to time that someone is able to get a significant return on a risky bet, but it seems that the talk is about the poor guy that looses a fortune. I am sure there must be cases in which someone won 1.4M against the odds and do not get a thread here. |
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It depends on your own ability to refer. Most people will be on the lower side of the curve unless they have some real influence and will get not much from refering, but some good influencer will actually get strong benefis from referrals. It is more about choosing the right program and about your own ability to get it to work for you as well as for the site.
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