Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MF Doom]

He just poublished new reports .... The Real Estate Cycle 2015 looks nice but too pricey for me

Wow, these predictions cost money? 

Yes because his predictions are gems: if the stock market doesn't go up in 2016 it might go down but if it goes down it probably won't go up (insert the number pi in the middle so it looks cool) 

A lot of these political/economic "forecasters" do that, always slip in an alternative and give a large time span so that they have as many options to look back on and claim their predictions were "correct"

[1714136344]

1714136344

[Risk Mgmt]

A lot of these political/economic "forecasters" do that, always slip in an alternative and give a large time span so that they have as many options to look back on and claim their predictions were "correct"
[/quote]

I'm soo happy know such wonderful people as - VALIZ, JOHN999 and MF Doom .
You you fine folks please share your 2016 predictions for free.
Grant me your insight for 2016 Canadian Real Estate Market, TSX and also DOW Jones ....

Thank you 


Much of Armstrong's work / theories are actually related to Adam Smith and Ibn Khaldun.
Until Ibn Khaldun and for centuries after him, no one in the history of economic thought has established such a coherent general economic theory to explain and predict the rise and the fall of civilisations, nations and empires as Ibn Khaldun has formulated in his Muqaddima. His theory has the empirical and theoretical power not only to explain the effects of government policies on production and trade, investment and specialisation, but also to predict the very survival of a state.
 
You can take it the easy way and pay Armstrong or go to local library and read Adam Smith and Ibn Khaldun works...

Ibn Khaldun's contribution was later picked up by David Hume in his Political Discourses, published in 1752: "Everything in the world is purchased by labour."7 This quotation was even used by Adam Smith as a footnote. "What is bought with money or with goods is purchased by labour, as much as what we acquire by the toil of our body. That money or those goods indeed save us this toil.

[MF Doom]

A lot of these political/economic "forecasters" do that, always slip in an alternative and give a large time span so that they have as many options to look back on and claim their predictions were "correct"

I'm soo happy know such wonderful people as - VALIZ, JOHN999 and MF Doom .
You you fine folks please share your 2016 predictions for free.
Grant me your insight for 2016 Canadian Real Estate Market, TSX and also DOW Jones ....

Thank you 

I am not (and I don't think others here) are purporting to have any insights into worldwide real estate/investing trends for the future.

I just wanted to point out that when these people make broad "predictions" with a very wide timetable, chances are they will be right at some point.  Then they tend to pick out the few "accurate" predictions and hang their hat on them.  Armstrong may be somewhat of an exception though, and I like how he tends to correlate historical economics and trends to at least give reasoning to his predictions.

Although I'm sure if I was in that field, and had more economics education than the very few classes I took on the subject, then I could make roughly accurate predictions as well.

[Risk Mgmt]

[/quote]

Very unfortunately Canada outlook seems pretty bleak for now. With the price of oil at this level (and even if it goes a bit higher), the house market has started to plunge in Calgary. It will spread this year to Vancouver and Toronto (especially when the chinese buyers disappear) and the rest of the country. The TSX market has been one of the weakest stock market in the world, due to the plunging commodities. For all stock markets, I expect them to be much much lower at the end of this year.

But I can be totally wrong, after all I don't have a super computer that can predict the future 
[/quote]

Thank you Sir....therefore TSX is good buy below 10,000 points.     

- AI technology via data mining will soon get close to good prediction accuracy on various isolated sectors etc.
eventually someone will connect all the individual AI's into one large AI...which is what GOOGLE and few others are trying.

[Risk Mgmt]

 

[/quote]

I am not (and I don't think others here) are purporting to have any insights into worldwide real estate/investing trends for the future.

I just wanted to point out that when these people make broad "predictions" with a very wide timetable, chances are they will be right at some point.  Then they tend to pick out the few "accurate" predictions and hang their hat on them.  Armstrong may be somewhat of an exception though, and I like how he tends to correlate historical economics and trends to at least give reasoning to his predictions.

Although I'm sure if I was in that field, and had more economics education than the very few classes I took on the subject, then I could make roughly accurate predictions as well.
[/quote]


Nobody can ever ever ever ever predict the future with 100% accuracy rate.   However, it may be possible to get close..or just a better glimpse ... example via understanding history and Computer technology of today :

The 40th president of the United States, Ronald Reagan famously stated in a piece in the New York Times in 1993,

““May I offer you the advice of the 14th century Arab historian Ibn Khaldun, who said: “At the beginning of the empire, the tax rates were low and the revenues were high. At the end of the empire, the tax rates were high and the revenues were low.”

And, no, I did not personally know Ibn Khaldun, although we may have had some friends in common!”

As Armstrong via his efforts builds ECM Model arround Khalduns and Adam Smiths work...Armstrong did well to see that everything is connected, understood or undertook history, current trends, and leveraged Technology to get data.

[THX 1138]

THX 1138

Left somewhat unsaid by Armstrong is whether or not there are some things "that are different this time".  Maybe that's why he does not make hard & fast predictions, there my be new factors nowadays that are not in his model...

Yes; as for instance with bitcoin, for which he currently has too little data to incorporate into the ECM.

If I had to guess, I would agree with Armstrong (and some other observers), at least for 2016: that the US$ will be strong for a while as people all over the world flee somewhat to put their money here.  Stocks?  Wow, I don't know, fundamentals seem to be kind of bad.  Now does not seem to be a good time to own capital assets (like chip factories or railroads).  Later on might be a different story as the economy recovers...  IF it recovers...

You mention Armstrong and other observers who you follow. I think it's a wise move to have a kind of venn diagram of varying viewpoints regarding economics, and perhaps concentrating investments within the intersection area, and smaller amounts to the more progressive or "out there" opinions. For me, I've used MA's dates on gold moves to my advantage over the last year or two - since I learned not to ignore them! I'm currently out and waiting for the low. Yeah, I would be selling assets now. But it would seem the mega-wealthy are parking their cash in assets, even though they must know they will depreciate come the next bout of financial turmoil. But I imagine they reason that it is better to hold some of what they once owned rather than nothing - or at least next to nothing, which the rest of us are staring in the face.

I also think that a DEFLATION is more likely in the short-term than inflation or hyperinflation (which would occur after a deflation).

I believe both MA and our TPTB would go along with that view.

Seriously people still follow Martin Armstrong? Good for you, 2015.75, debt big bang and so on  

2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05.


A couple of quotes from Tom Campbell, author of My Big T.O.E. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_W._Campbell

“Open-minded skepticism is the primary tool you will need to maintain a free mind capable of significant and evolutionary progress.”

“In short, Believe Nothing, Explore Everything, Know what you Know. Know More."

[Risk Mgmt]

One thing which is different now than before is TECHNOLOGY and its impact on JOBS...

How employees it took to build one car 20 years back compared to now
Look at self-serving cashier jobs  i.e Home Depot
Parking Attendents - GONE
Drone impact on aviation and transportation logistics
Uber on Taxi

These are impacts that will only increase.


Re: Ibn Khaldun  14th century

Empires rise with group feeling, and fall when people do not have any commonality to unite them....one of the down falls of diversity.  This is not about as in social welfare healthcare per se....rather over diversity where the nation has lost it own identity on which it was found.

With current trends in rising taxes and population misplacements around the globe.....I'm now trying to see where Pi 3.14 fits in or if that was just a diguise something as simple as the works of Adam Smith and a 14th Century Historian.

[THX 1138]

2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05.

Sure, people will remember this date for centuries to come...

Are you always this dismissive and cynical or are you just having a bad day?

[Wekkel]

Waiting for the US to suck up all the capital in the world.

[Risk Mgmt]

 RISE AND FALL

Check Box

Rising when

1)  Taxes are low and revenues are high    
2)  Group Feeling -- Commonality --  bond of cohesion
3) As time passes - Successive KINGS (PUBLIC / GOVERNMENT) succeed each other, they lose their tribal habits in favor of more civilized ones. Their needs and exigencies grow...owing to the luxury addict lifestyle or as Armstrong calls them career politicians in which they have been brought up. Hence they impose fresh taxes on their subjects...and sharply raise the rate of old taxes to increase their yield...But the effects on business of this rise in taxation make themselves felt.

For business men ( PRIVATE) are soon discouraged by the comparison of their profits with the burden of their taxes...Consequently production falls off, and with it the yield of taxation.

See any similarities to Mr. Armstrong......if you said yes ...the above was written 14th centuries ago.

[THX 1138]

Just you Armstrong fanboys crack me up, that's all. But I will leave to it. Just don't forget to buy stocks, they will double. Or not. Not too sure, it depends of the phase transition 

You seem to be full of unassailable assumptions. Did you actually bother to read what I said in the original quote you responded to?

...I think it's a wise move to have a kind of venn diagram of varying viewpoints regarding economics, and perhaps concentrating investments within the intersection area, and smaller amounts to the more progressive or "out there" opinions...

I wouldn't describe myself as a "fanboy" of MAs. There are many other individuals' opinions I absorb. I try to form a balanced view with a wide a range of information that I can - and attempt to keep my mind at once open and sceptical.

[sidhujag]

2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05.

Sure, people will remember this date for centuries to come...

Are you always this dismissive and cynical or are you just having a bad day?

Just you Armstrong fanboys crack me up, that's all. But I will leave to it. Just don't forget to buy stocks, they will double. Or not. Not too sure, it depends of the phase transition 

we're all fan boys of something, but most def not you!

[THX 1138]

2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05.

Sure, people will remember this date for centuries to come...

Are you always this dismissive and cynical or are you just having a bad day?

Just you Armstrong fanboys crack me up, that's all. But I will leave to it. Just don't forget to buy stocks, they will double. Or not. Not too sure, it depends of the phase transition  

we're all fan boys of something, but most def not you!

And so we discover who he's a fanboy of :

... I prefer to focus on real economists like Jim Rickards, Harry Dent and co.

[OROBTC]

...

One of the reasons I started this thread was to invite lots of ideas.  Armstrong HAS ideas that you do not see in very many places.

I like guys like Rickards* & Dent as well.  They too have ideas.

And for me, that's what I want.  After lots of reading, I will make up my own mind on whose ideas I like the best.  

We all have to choose our own way.

*   *   *

* Rickards did make a serious error on Page 274 in his book The Death of Money.

A 747 cannot hold 150 tonnes (two 747s carrying 150 tonnes each to Japan) of gold, especially on its UPPER DECK.  3 - 5 tonnes maybe.  Whoops.

[sidhujag]

He may be right just as we all are.. I called dow 32k before i knew armstrong.. But his timing is never right tyats the tough part... We all know shits gonna hit the fan but dont know when. So lets see how his 2015.75 prediction unfolds cause that will certainly make him or break him.

[jehst]

He may be right just as we all are.. I called dow 32k before i knew armstrong.. But his timing is never right tyats the tough part... We all know shits gonna hit the fan but dont know when. So lets see how his 2015.75 prediction unfolds cause that will certainly make him or break him.

The 2015.75 sovereign debt big bang prediction can't be wrong. It's "the beginning" of something that could take years to hit. As long as the markets aren't totally flat for the next 5 years, he can say that he was right.

[thatbluedude]

fyi, the socrates comments for the Quarterly/Yearly Historical Preview for the S&P500 (Q1)2016, see below for example what this means
https://ask-socrates.com/Content/images/sample/trader/summary.png
 are ReTesting Support /  CAUTION ADVISED Very Choppy
My socrates base currency is euros

[THX 1138]

Apparently contrarian opinion is not welcome in here   The problem with Martin Armstrong is there is always a "if" in his prediction. And he is already backing off with his "Big Bang 2015.75" (which is today by the way) stating the effects will take time and we won't see the consequences before xxx months (which is not the definiton of a big bang). Anyway I will leave it to it as I prefer to focus on real economists like Jim Rickards, Harry Dent and co.

Of course I admire the work of Jim Rickards and Harry Dent among others. But why cut my old post like that? 3 months later it still stands pretty good  

...

One of the reasons I started this thread was to invite lots of ideas.  Armstrong HAS ideas that you do not see in very many places.

I like guys like Rickards* & Dent as well.  They too have ideas.

And for me, that's what I want.  After lots of reading, I will make up my own mind on whose ideas I like the best.  

We all have to choose our own way.

That's all good. And that's what I do also. For example there's this thread where Martin Armstrong is praised and there are other threads about him where actual questions are asked like this one:
http://www.informedtrades.com/1341538-%5Btext%5D-martin-armstrongs-audited-track-record-3.html

And after I make up my mind.

OK, so let's try and keep it polite and with constructive criticism. I think most of us are reasonably intelligent and discerning here. As OROBTC says, the thread is to invite ideas.
EDIT: John999, I hadn't come across that informedtrades site before, an interesting read.

* * *

fyi, the socrates comments for the Quarterly/Yearly Historical Preview for the S&P500 (Q1)2016, see below for example what this means
https://ask-socrates.com/Content/images/sample/trader/summary.png
 are ReTesting Support /  CAUTION ADVISED Very Choppy
My socrates base currency is euros

Many thanks for supplying this.

[sidhujag]

He may be right just as we all are.. I called dow 32k before i knew armstrong.. But his timing is never right tyats the tough part... We all know shits gonna hit the fan but dont know when. So lets see how his 2015.75 prediction unfolds cause that will certainly make him or break him.

The 2015.75 sovereign debt big bang prediction can't be wrong. It's "the beginning" of something that could take years to hit. As long as the markets aren't totally flat for the next 5 years, he can say that he was right.

Ill buy an option that will pay out if the market isn't flat for 5 years in a row ANY DAY. that's not a prediction that's random babbling.. we ALL know whats going to happen, its all about timing... if this recent downturn is it I'll be happy to say he was right, otherwise its going to fall into the bin as another false prophet.

[Risk Mgmt]

DGP, an ETF that doubles the price of gold     - should anyone have any interest.

Silver looks nice under $14.

OIL hope it stays flat

Anything interesting ETF recommendations -- would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

MA Fanboy