Martin Armstrong Discussion

[trc4949]

does anyone have any thoughts on gold? 

the dollar is looking like it wants to press rapidly higher.

Breaking above 100   in the dollar and breaking north a 19 YEAR downtrend line in the dollar cannot be good for gold


do we get a crack just under 1000 in gold and send the gold bugs into panic for a low ?

[1714243512]

1714243512

[1714243512]

1714243512

[1714243512]

1714243512

[1714243512]

1714243512

[luckyplate]

Gold correcting as usual.

A peak has been reach and I am expecting price to fall quite a bit from 1300.
Do you have the Martin private blog us share market outlook  Post today ?
Pls share if you have

does anyone have any thoughts on gold? 

the dollar is looking like it wants to press rapidly higher.

Breaking above 100   in the dollar and breaking north a 19 YEAR downtrend line in the dollar cannot be good for gold


do we get a crack just under 1000 in gold and send the gold bugs into panic for a low ?

[s29]

I once messaged and had my post on his blog. It had a typo, so I wouldn't go so far as to say he did it. There are always some people who will lavish praise.

There are certain setups in the market where several scenarios can go, and if it does go to the scenario you envision, then the subsequent action can be estimated with a very high degree of accuracy. The easiest is what I'd call a double bottom/double top breakout. So if the market makes a double top and then breaks through it, when it falls back down on the tops for the first time, it becomes a support level. Same thing for double bottoms on the downside resistance. It is more accurate on indexes. I actually did this today and was off only 9 cents from the Dow's low the first time it touched. What's interesting is that I envisioned this possibility last night, IF the market gapped up. It did, and I just waited for a dip to buy at that point.

Could be he types the questions over from another computer and that explains the typo's.
But still funny that he only posts very positive emails from readers, while he seems to be wrong on multiple occasions in at least the past 6 months.
His predictions are usually very vague. It's always "Could be a low in May, but it also could be July, but if it isn't July it could be August. And if Jesus doesn't return to Earth by November the low could be in December.". Wtf is that all about?

His Arrays are also hilarious. There are so many indicators on them you can interpreted them all the way to every planet in the Milky Way.

Ok, so the private blog post from March 19 is not very useful IMO.

I can summarize main points:
1. Nothing suggests a major crash
2. Does not look like we are ready for new highs
3. Going into recession until early 2020
4. May and July are two targets. The plausible scenario is DOW low in May and high in July. No specific numbers but we may not even elect a weekly bearish to make that low.
5. Preparing for a slingshot move. Bear trap first - majority needs to be wrong - and then quick upside move.

No arrays or numbers in this post at all.

Thanks.

I totally don't understand why Armstrong keeps talking about a slingshot, while we JUST had a bear trap and slingshot in de past 3 months (20%+ move in up and down in the S&P). Sounds like Armstrong missed the party. What is this all about?

Anyone info on his latest private blogpost from today?

[NotFromReddit]

Anyone have info on the Private Blog: The Dow – Euro – Capital Flows? Thanks in advance.

[luckyplate]

No one subscription to Martin anymore ? If you need contribution ,then let's contribute.

Anyone have info on the Private Blog: The Dow – Euro – Capital Flows? Thanks in advance.

[Alex-11]

But still funny that he only posts very positive emails from readers, while he seems to be wrong on multiple occasions in at least the past 6 months.

he has dealt with a lot of criticism in the past years and he has had enough of that.
This is what I think he thinks.

There are so many indicators on them you can interpreted them

Socrates Pro is meant to be for professionals. If you are not willing to invest a lot of time to study his model and his blog, then Socrates Pro is IMO not for you.

[1971Mus]

Anyone have info on the Private Blog: The Dow – Euro – Capital Flows? Thanks in advance.

To Summarize on the Dow-Euro Capital Flows

Politics is driving capital flows into the USA intensely.
We are not going to have a major correction of 50%.
The model shows that we will make new historical highs beyond 2020 and we will see 30,000 on the DOW before we ever see 15,000.

[luckyplate]

Did it mention any stock corrections coming soon ?or it is
A vertical market all the way to 30000

Anyone have info on the Private Blog: The Dow – Euro – Capital Flows? Thanks in advance.

To Summarize on the Dow-Euro Capital Flows

Politics is driving capital flows into the USA intensely.
We are not going to have a major correction of 50%.
The model shows that we will make new historical highs beyond 2020 and we will see 30,000 on the DOW before we ever see 15,000.

[IcoRaces]

Ow. See, that's the reason why I'm wary of crude. Big green candle got me out.

Is there a complete record of Armstrong's trading?

[sidhujag]

Closed for small amounts due to possible theta-Friday

is this a trading thread now? Thought it was supposed to be about economics.

[MA_talk]

Ow. See, that's the reason why I'm wary of crude. Big green candle got me out.

Is there a complete record of Armstrong's trading?

Is there any record of Armstrong's trading that isn't on his site?

Also, are there any people who have followed Armstrong's calls for years and still go with him? Remember, even if Armstrong's computer is as great as it is purported to be, it doesn't matter if one can't understand it. It needs to be objective and 'lines in the sand'. The timing model isn't really that. The Reversals are. How accurate are they? Who knows. An objective win-loss record is needed.

That's right.  "it doesn't matter if one can't understand it"

Armstrong NEVER had any real trading record, unlike MANY other stock newsletters that I subscribed to.  ALL reputable stock newsletters will always attach a date for their recommendation, along with the price at that time.

A profit cannot be made without a buy and a sell (and doesn't matter which comes first).  Either you enter the trade based on timing or based on price, but there must be a buy and a sell.  In the case of not calling the "sell", the assumption is that you buy at the right time, and the "sell" price will be the current market price.  You cannot claim any credit, if you have never put out a buy call with a DATE stamped on it.

I kept proposing to generate some automatic buy/sell signals from his timing arrays, and/or reversal levels, just to "see the value of his models".  Simple strategy like buying volatility (by buying both put/calls) for his panic month/week from the array, or just between a very high/low bars shown in the composite, "should" technically work over time, assuming that his model is anywhere close to accurate.

My personal attempts to trade using his model have almost always resulted in losses.  I initially blamed on me not understanding his model, but over time, I realized that that is exactly Armstrong's strategy: making you NOT understanding it, so that his model is NEVER to be blamed.

Again, all of you can keep chiming in, and cheer-lead the Great Armstrong.

However, the only thing that will never lie to you is PROFIT and truth/math.  The ECM date as October 4th, 2015, is simply NOT the same date as September 30th/October 1st, 2015.  There are just no claims that can be made to make ECM date as "down to the day".

After 253 pages on this forum, people are still here arguing the true understanding & interpretation of his latest blog, and exactly whether slingslot has happened or not.

Socrates/Armstrong should be able to answer that question in extremely clear cut "yes or no".

Oh, by the way, Armstrong did say that we have a cycle inversion (right? or whatever that means), but again, that is just way too late for anyone to trade on it.

[s29]

But still funny that he only posts very positive emails from readers, while he seems to be wrong on multiple occasions in at least the past 6 months.

he has dealt with a lot of criticism in the past years and he has had enough of that.
This is what I think he thinks.

No wonder. He has been wrong so many times lately, so he just filters out so that only fanmail is left? Smart move.

[sidhujag]

Closed for small amounts due to possible theta-Friday

is this a trading thread now? Thought it was supposed to be about economics.

Nope, its all about making predictions of monetary value.

Its supposed to be about economics and actually armstrong's predictive analysis actually, that is why its in the economics section, please stick to the rules.

[infofront]

Closed for small amounts due to possible theta-Friday

is this a trading thread now? Thought it was supposed to be about economics.

Nope, its all about making predictions of monetary value.

Its supposed to be about economics and actually armstrong's predictive analysis actually, that is why its in the economics section, please stick to the rules.

Ok, fair enough. I think Armstrong's been debunked for most part- his computer's technical analysis works pretty well but his predictive cycle stuff just isn't consistent.

I think trade talk is entirely appropriate here.

[sidhujag]

Closed for small amounts due to possible theta-Friday

is this a trading thread now? Thought it was supposed to be about economics.

Nope, its all about making predictions of monetary value.

Its supposed to be about economics and actually armstrong's predictive analysis actually, that is why its in the economics section, please stick to the rules.

Ok, fair enough. I think Armstrong's been debunked for most part- his computer's technical analysis works pretty well but his predictive cycle stuff just isn't consistent.

I think trade talk is entirely appropriate here.

Incidentally, my current style is something I took from Armstrong. I used to save and input Socrates numbers of support and resistance on the daily levels onto my charting on the Dow, S and P, and Nasdaq over time without deleting any levels. They were not 100%, and I never knew when they would hit, but I waited for two to hit at the same time intraday and that would be my trade. It worked really well and accurately. I pretty much do the same thing these days but derive my own method of picking points as well as using several other related products to locate reversal points, which works even better. Actually, this happened today at the LoD for /ES.

then this thread should be moved to tradetalk i follow this to chat about his long term analysis and not your SL/TP targets on market positions.

[MA_talk]

I'd just written a very long and detailed post. Then timed out. Not going to write it all again, but the main points:

Armstrong's timing model is subjective even when he says it is objective.

....

That's a pity that your post timed out.  I enjoy your counter points the most here.  I obviously want to learn from a different voice other than my own small brain.

I always make a copy of my post to Notepad before I clicked on ANY buttons, or even write it in Notepad and then cut & paste it.  I was a financial blogger in the past, and that happened enough times to me for me to learn the lesson.

Yes, I know that "pi in the sky" article.  I believe Armstrong is extremely good in persuading many people, including journalists, politicians, many traders.  Whether Nigel goes to ECM conference or not, or he managed to convince 95% of human population, really does NOT matter.  The only thing that matters is whether trading PROFIT is there.

PROFITS need no persuasion.  If it works and produce profits, without all the if-then-else, then-that, then-cycle-inversion, then-market-is-always-right, etc.  it simply requires no persuasion.

If a regular human with sufficient English knowledge, is unable to understand Armstrong's trading English to be able to trade successfully, then Armstrong has FAILED to deliver.

Subscribers pay money to know how/what to trade.  They should NOT need to pay another person or come to this forum to find another trading wizard to interpret THE trading wizard.  In fact, isn't that what this all about?  Armstrong (the trading wizard) interprets Socrates (the trading wizard).  And you need another trading wizard to interpret Armstrong??  Can you imagine how much information get lost along the way, if it's really done this way?

Everytime that I see this "third person trick" used (by real estate agents in negotiations, con artists, etc) is to deflect any blames away from yourself (the first person who is delivering the lies), and let the "second person" (receiver of lies) focus on your good points, while let the "third person" (whoever is NOT there) takes all the blames or questions.  The fact that the "third person" is NOT there serves MANY purpose, and put up the finishing touches on any argument holes that cannot be verified.

[trc4949]

Latest audio interview from Armstrong.  He is saying gold will NOT be ready for bull market until next year.  I tend to agree with him on his gold view.

SEE this us dollar index chart:

https://live.staticflickr.com/7882/40617022643_aecc36f7c2_h.jpg


https://youtu.be/urGdXiVuIsE

[sidhujag]

I'd just written a very long and detailed post. Then timed out. Not going to write it all again, but the main points:

Armstrong's timing model is subjective even when he says it is objective.

If you're following even his long term calls, you still are using Socrates and not his fundamental analysis, because that would be subjective.

Armstrong's technical analysis seems to work and he sometimes times the corrections but sometimes false positives.

There's a new post. If someone wants to post it, we can see if the Dow is a temp high or not based on his call if that's what the title refers to.

There are certain high probability trades in the market. Use alignment and confluence of price levels. I got this strategy from Armstrong. It works.

If Armstrong is a big shot, other big shots should have mentioned him. Any Paul Tudor Jones, John Paulson, etc say anything?

Armstrong refers to himself on his site when he is in the news- its usually the single 'pi in the sky' news article.

An objective third party is required to translate Armstrong's calls so no one can say he was right or not. That third party is your trading account.

i agree if you see my posts i could have saved you the time. His trading signals are wack just like anyone else, but his fundamental long term analysis may or may not have legs. Others like his sock puppet anonymint defend his trading calls but now cant even do that since he has been debunked for the most part. Even his rei calls for a top failed but well see how big this rei crash is and likely he may end up being right sooner or later.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Others like his sock puppet anonymint defend his trading calls but now cant even do that since he has been debunked for the most part.

anonymint was not a sockpuppet, though I would assume from reading his many posts in the past he would continue follow MA quite closely.

[Strike Eagle 26]

You see the problem is all you guys do is focus on what Armstrong said and his predictions but that is him just speculating on what may or may not happen. The only thing that matters really is the reversal system, the numbers are the only thing that matters and whether they are elected or not is the key, everything else is just noise. I am a hardcore follower of the Socrates System and how it works not Armstrong's comments/opinion's and there is a big difference. Armstrong knows nothing, as he has said before "THE REVERSAL SYSTEM IS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN" Socrates is the one making all the forecasts and will be making them long after Armstrong is gone


Bikefront and MA_talk who are clearly not subscribed to the pro service so what they have to say about Armstrong and his trading service means absolutely nothing. Once subscribed you can see the reversals which have been elected on a daily/weekly/monthly basis in the past so you can easily see how accurate they are. maybe you guys just want to be poor for the rest of your lives or its just easier to complain then it is to actually do the hard work in understanding this model.