Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MA_talk]

You have made a basic error that’s the ECM model in 2.15 year intervals so of course the dates are different, can't you read the title?

the 8.6yr wave breaks down into 3 individual alternating  waves with a time duration of 2.15 and 1.075 year
periods for 1 leg. We refer to these as "long" and "short" legs(https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/)
So for the start of that wave we have 2011.45 + 2.15 = 2013.60 + 1.075 = 2014.675 + 1.075 = 2015.75 (half cycle 4.3 years) hope you can see your mistake now.

The ECM date has always been 2015.75 which is October 1st. 2015.75 = 365 x .75 = 273.75 days into the year which is October 1st 2015.

Apparently, you did NOT read the third link, directly from Armstrong.  Armstrong SAID that it IS October 7th 2015.

And in my older posts, I also made an argument that Armstrong's ECM numbers & model can NOT be correct at all by the simplest logic.

Based on Armstrong's math, ECM dates are every 8.6 year, and you can sprinkle around even more dates by using 2.15, and 1.075 years.  And given ANY starting/periodic date of ECM, take 2015.75 for example, you will find out that the decimal parts of the year will repeat rather quickly.  For example, after 10 ECM cycles, it's original date plus 86 years.  Since every year is always 365 or 366 days, ALL of ECM dates whether it's at half-cycle or quarter cycle or not, they will ALWAYS fall on 2 potential dates (355 or 366 days per year), plus any cyclic repeats of the decimal parts in between.

So believing in Armstrong's ECM model and his 8.6 year is essentially saying that ALL historical/future important economic dates are ALWAYS occurring on October 1st, and variants of it.  I'm not going to show you the simple math of adding 0.6 to 2015.75, and give you all of the other 4 variants.  But you get the idea.

Okay, let me repeat that again.  ALL historical and future important economic dates are ALWAYS going to occur on 5 dates (or potentially 10 if multiplying to 366 gives you another date).

That is falsehood staring right back in your eyes.

But you know what, Armstrong won't even blink when he states that.

[1714255408]

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[1714255408]

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[MA_talk]

Every single date on their is not based on the 8.6 year structure how could you have possibly missed this.

2011.45… 06/18/11 is wrong the actual date is June 13/14th

2013.6… 08/12/13 is wrong the actual date is August 7th

2015.75… 10/07/15 is wrong the actual date is October 1st

2017.9… 12/01/17 is wrong the actual date is November 24/25th

etc etc etc

Those dates are NOT "their".  Those dates are directly from Armstrong.  No one made that up.  He SAID those dates himself.

I posted links from web archive, because there is no way for Armstrong to delete them and alter the truth.  You can remove the web archive part, and see it directly from Armstrong's website.

[MA_talk]

It is in fact this direct date conflict of October 1st versus October 7th, plus his repeated claim of down to the "very day", that made me realized that the whole ECM can be BS.  The moment that Armstrong posted his date "methodology", I realized the math problem with the rational numbers with single digit of 8.6.

Back then, he had a different methodology, if you study those posted dates carefully.

In any case, October 1 is not 7.  And human economic history wasn't digitalized to just several some 30 days in the 365 day calendar for sure.

So if the core of ECM is wrong, can the blog content related to Socrates be wrong?

For God's sake, ECM is what Martin Armstrong is known for.  And he even claimed that his "computer" interacted with his daughter and "passed the Turing test" because his daughter was upset that he took apart of "his computer", possibly back in the 1970 or 1980s, when NO computers with the size of a room, on EARTH had the sufficient amount of computational power to do speech recognition, or any sort of AI.  In the 70s, the processor ran at some kHz, when in 2000, processor ran at 3GHz.  You need a million of processors to do such job back then.

Think about that, huh?

https://www.computerhope.com/history/processor.htm

1971, first processor ran at 60kHz.

[Strike Eagle 26]

The problem is you have already made up your mind so there is no point in discussing further but your mistake is starring you in the face those dates are the ECM in 2.15 year intervals so of course the dates are different and they only go to .2 decimal places. You don't even understand the basic wave structure of the 8.6 year economic confidence model which consists of 2.15 and 1.075 years and that is never going to change and those numbers have been in place and public for decades.
  your mistake is so bad that you cant even see it. it will soon be painfully aware that you have just been exposed as someone who actually knows nothing about MA or his model.

[MA_talk]

The problem is you have already made up your mind so there is no point in discussing further but your mistake is starring you in the face those dates are the ECM in 2.15 year intervals so of course the dates are different and they only go to .2 decimal places. You don't even understand the basic wave structure of the 8.6 year economic confidence model which consists of 2.15 and 1.075 years and that is never going to change and those numbers have been in place and public for decades.
  your mistake is so bad that you cant even see it. it will soon be painfully aware that you have just been exposed as someone who actually knows nothing about MA or his model.

You're exactly right that those dates according to Armstrong are never going to change.

But how about you explain it to everyone here, how is October 7th, 2015 the same as October 1st, 2015, when both dates & sources are from Armstrong directly?

I gave you the links.  And links are DIRECTLY from Armstrong's website.

So?

[Strike Eagle 26]

those dates are the ECM calculated in quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years.

 MA explains everything in detail in this PDF. I don't think you would go through 72 pages though or even get passed the first page since you have already concluded Armstrong is a fraud.
 https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf

[MA_talk]

Can we please get some comments from other people on this October 1st vs October 7th 2015 dates?



By the way, just FYI, I have read every single public articles by Armstrong from 2000 to about 2015, and I read through every word and sentence, and that is how I catch all of his typos.

I have definitely read that 72 pages from your link.

[Strike Eagle 26]

just because you have read them doesn't mean you have understood anything, you clearly are very confused and I can assure you no charlatan is going to made such a obvious mistake and based on what you are saying he has made it 100 times, the mistake is clearly with you.
 the link you provided with those list of dates by Armstrong which clearly states that this business cycle CAN BE!!!!!!!! calculated on quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into the final peak for this major wave formation of December 24th, 2032.

and based on those list of dates provided from the link every single date Armstrong has given on his blog regarding the ECM over the years is wrong EVERY SINGLE ONE not just the 1st of August 2015 as shown below.
So what happened to the last 4 years then ? you basically have 4 years of blog posts to read before we can continue this discussion and of course you have not been reading the private blog posts since it came out either.

2.15 intervals
 
2011.45… 06/18/11
2013.6… 08/12/13
2015.75… 10/07/15
2017.9… 12/01/17
2020.05… 01/26/20

ECM intervals (2.15 + 1.075 alternating waves)

2011.45... June 13/14th
2013.60... August 7th
2014.675... September 3rd/4th
2015.75... October 1st
2016.825... October 28th
2017.90... November 24/25th
2020.05... January 18/19th

[MA_talk]

Did you even read the entire article in the third link?

The entire article including ALL of those WRONG dates (according to you) was written by Martin Armstrong.

Of course, if you are wrong on 1 date, you are probably wrong on ALL dates.  Math is math, and math doesn't lie.

THE Charlatan (Martin Armstrong) DID made this mistake.

That article is only a couple of pages.  How about you read it first?

[Strike Eagle 26]

all of those dates are not wrong at all that is simply another way of calculating the business cycle in 2.15 year quarter-cycle intervals I really can't make it much simpler than that and he says exactly that so I can't understand the confusion. it is you who needs to read it again. I am really trying to help you here I have absolutely no reason to lie to you. Regarding how significant the 2.15 quarterly cycle interval is I do not know but there is also the 8.6 month cycle and 8.6 week cycle within the 8.6 year cycle but that doesn't seem to confuse you? and there are even deeper levels with the 8.6 day cycle, hours, minutes and even seconds.


You may find this interesting the ECM high of 1998.554298, add Pi in terms of months and years 3.141 that produces the date 2001.695. take 365 days and multiply .695 yields 253.675 days into the year 2001.
That amounts to September 11th 2001. The 8.6 year cycle is equal to Pi x 1000 it is not something he pulled out of thin air.

MA_Talk  I have read every single public blog post ever released including all previous writings going back to 1995. I have read every single private blog post since the launch of Ask-Socrates and I have traded on the reversals given on the private blog countless times can you say you have done the same? You haven't been following Armstrong since 2015 you have absolutely no idea what you are even talking about, since 2015 you have been blissfully unaware of Armstrong's calls that he has made.

[MA_talk]

all of those dates are not wrong at all that is simply another way of calculating the business cycle in 2.15 year quarter-cycle intervals I really can't make it much simpler than that and he says exactly that so I can't understand the confusion. it is you who needs to read it again. I am really trying to help you here I have absolutely no reason to lie to you. Regarding how significant the 2.15 quarterly cycle interval is I do not know but there is also the 8.6 month cycle and 8.6 week cycle within the 8.6 year cycle but that doesn't seem to confuse you? and there are even deeper levels with the 8.6 day cycle, hours, minutes and even seconds.


You may find this interesting the ECM high of 1998.554298, add Pi in terms of months and years 3.141 that produces the date 2001.695. take 365 days and multiply .695 yields 253.675 days into the year 2001.
That amounts to September 11th 2001. The 8.6 year cycle is equal to Pi x 1000 it is not something he pulled out of thin air.

MA_Talk  I have read every single public blog post ever released including all previous writings going back to 1995. I have read every single private blog post since the launch of Ask-Socrates and I have traded on the reversals given on the private blog countless times can you say you have done the same? You haven't been following Armstrong since 2015 you have absolutely no idea what you are even talking about, since 2015 you have been blissfully unaware of Armstrong's calls that he has made.

"another way" of calculating?  So both October 1st and October 7th are ECM dates, and Armstrong was also accurate down to the "very day" as he claimed?  Down to which day of his choosing?

You cannot have it both way.

If you say that you can trade using his model profitably, please SHOW it and convince me wrong.

MOST people on this forum will not agree with you.

Profits never lie.  And I'm very practical.  As long as profits can be made, I don't care whether it's October 1st or 7th.  The only problem that I have is that Armstrong has made ECM and 8.6 years as the CENTRAL theme, and that it's simply not correct to say 1st and 7th are the same day, and that his model predicts down to the "very day".

[MA_talk]

Again, if you have 6 days difference in just 1 ECM cycle, in just 10 ECM cycles, you will have 60 days difference.

That is TWO months difference.  That is like eternity in the high-speed trading world.  I supposed that Armstrong can call every single day in that 60 days window, and if he gets a hit, he is the hero, and he is right?

[MA_talk]

Let me summarize a little.

1. So "Strike Eagle 26" you have agreed that both posts were directly from Armstrong, and in one post, Armstrong stated October 1st as the ECM date, while at another, Armstrong stated October 7th as the ECM date.

2. We all agree that October 1st and 7th are NOT the same date.

3. Armstrong stated in his posts that his ECM model picked the "very day".  By that sentence, he is stating that the accuracy of his ECM model is at least accurate to the precision of 1/365 days, or about 0.2 to 0.3%.

4. However, that statement from #3 is simply NOT accurate.  The difference is AT LEAST 6 days, just in 1 ECM cycle.  If you calibrate to a different start date, such as from year 1987, the total difference will be MUCH MORE in days.

In logic, this is proof by contradiction.  Obviously, certain statements from #1 to #3 are NOT true.

My conclusion is that ECM model is probably not true at all, due to all of the shifting days.

[Strike Eagle 26]

the 2.15 interval is not the actual ECM date it is just a quarter cycle of the ECM the real ECM is 3 individual altering waves how many times do i have to explain to you. there are many different cycles this doesn't prove Armstrong wrong in the slightest. I don't need to prove anything to you it has already been proven the reversal system is almost infallible I have recorded every single private blog post since 2016 trust me I have taken this very very seriously. IF you had been following Armstrong since 2016 you would be absolutely convinced as I am, and it is not  a belief I know for absolute certainty. Armstrong has called the market at just about every turn.

8.6 year cycle number is found by Taking 224 / 26 = 8.6153846615. you need to figure out what the dates are yourself why do you rely on Armstrong for this? You have all the numbers needed to calculate it now

[Strike Eagle 26]

Yes but that trade is only .17% I mean it certainly is impressive but I really think you are working very hard for such small gains and are you really entering the market for just 5 minutes?  The shorter the time period the harder it is to forecast. Long term trends are easier to forecast than short term trends so there is a lot more risk in what you are doing.

I have been subbed since the pro service was released and recorded just about every single daily/weekly/monthly reversal that has been elected on the Dow and many other markets but maybe it will be more impressive if we go live.
So for the close of today for the Dow we elected a minor daily bullish reversal(x2) at 26441.74 but we also tested and exceeded the major daily bullish at 26529.36 but failed to close above so that implies we may move down from here.

  I don’t recall that number but we currently have a  weekly bullish reversal at 26769.17 and a weekly bearish reversal at 26301.80

Oh yes the Dow elected a weekly bullish reversal on the 28th of January by closing above 25003.20 which was a major weekly bullish reversal and the next weekly bullish was high above at 25966.72 there was a huge gap and it was almost a guaranteed  trade for me

[luckyplate]

His reversal  are guide .if he say the high is in then his reversal would be important to watch .
If he say consolidation actually it could meant higher high in n the future or a flat.
Pushing through 25100 follow by 26400. The next reversal could be critical. But I suppose he expects it to
Turn down on the next reversal.

He is wrong on Feb call when he say the high is in at 25100. But the market continued to rally from there .

Yes but that trade is only .17% I mean it certainly is impressive but I really think you are working very hard for such small gains and are you really entering the market for just 5 minutes?  The shorter the time period the harder it is to forecast. Long term trends are easier to forecast than short term trends so there is a lot more risk in what you are doing.

I have been subbed since the pro service was released and recorded just about every single daily/weekly/monthly reversal that has been elected on the Dow and many other markets but maybe it will be more impressive if we go live.
So for the close of today for the Dow we elected a minor daily bullish reversal(x2) at 26441.74 but we also tested and exceeded the major daily bullish at 26529.36 but failed to close above so that implies we may move down from here.

  I don’t recall that number but we currently have a  weekly bullish reversal at 26769.17 and a weekly bearish reversal at 26301.80

Oh yes the Dow elected a weekly bullish reversal on the 28th of January by closing above 25003.20 which was a major weekly bullish reversal and the next weekly bullish was high above at 25966.72 there was a huge gap and it was almost a guaranteed  trade for me

[luckyplate]

I remember he mentioned if the consolidation continued in March then the low might be in may. But that is due to the brexit event. Since brexit is extended .I suppose the story now is if a low will still occur in may .
Looking at the meltup of this market since December
I have a feeling it will be follow by equally sharp meltdown later on.
Ma used to mention things like bearish reversal for a up market and bullish reversal for a down market. And also panic cycle. His Pani c cycle means a panic up or panic. So if you look at his reversal at daily weekly you know where it is heading next if a reversal fails to elect .the next reversal is 26900 for dow. Failing to elect a bearish reversal here might mean a new all time high in dow .

Lucky, that was a timing based call, not a Reversal election. StrikeEagle says only on Reversal elections should the trades be made. And on that note, I actually don't remember a time when the Reversal election trades failed. There were some that were 'a close above/below x/y implies a move to a/b' that worked most of the time but failed at others, but they weren't Reversals. MA, it might be worth checking out the historical accuracy of Reversal election trades. They are much more objective. A trade might be structured as thus: Weekly Bullish Reversal elected by 100 points. Next one is expected to be tested at 500 points above. Therefore, a risk:reward ratio of 5:1. Have a set r:r and don't take trades if they are elected by too far a margin where r:r is not there. Take only those types of trades. And so on.

If we are talking about strategies that are to be entertained in the realm of the Holy Grail, I believe fixed price points are ones up for consideration. I use them exclusively. Although Reversals might seem to be only regular TA, if they have the ability to differentiate how far a 'real' breakout is vs a merely extreme move (beginning of a correction or a good dip opportunity?) on a consistent basis based on specific magic numbers that Socrates knows, then only those should be followed.

[whizzledog]

Hey folks, I registered here because I follow MA for years now and being a user of socrates. I read the Manuel several times and still had problems with my stagey. Its way too complex.

Here is what I have understand so far, hope you could share some knowledge to become better….MA often stated that it is a matter of price and time together.

Entry Point

1. You first look at the GMW (Global Market Watch) for a right pattern. Yellow or Light Blue.
2. You look at the Reversals and they need to elected to confirm the GMW.
3. Read the Analysis to confirm your suggestion of the move.
4. Make your own Chart Analysis. Fibo and staff.
5. Then you look at the Arrays (Pro Membership) for the Right Timing. Top down from Monthly to even Daily (but Daily is really not that precise)
There should be a Cycle Low or Cycle High around the date.
6. If the Reversal is elected (only Weekly or Monthly imo) you open a position and the stop loss has to be the Reversal on the other site. (For a Bull Move the stop loss is the Weekly Bearish f.e.)

Exit Point
1. Look at the Reversals (we have already elected one for the entry so we look at the Second and Third) Often the Market will elect 3 Reversals in a row and then test the other site. Electing 4 Reversals tend to a change in the Trend.
2. Look at the Array to search for a Exit point.



Also there are lot of special things to look at….

Reversals
1. Electing 4 Reversals will alter the Trend (only Monthly and Weekly)
2. The Price will rather move to Double Reversals or clusters (can see it in the Pro Membership) They signal a abrupt price change
3. Reversals working best under extreme Volatility
4. How Quick they elected will signal the degree of the move
5. The 1% rule (electing a reversal more than 1% away, will mostly tend to test the reversal again)
6. There are Minor and Major Reversals (Major = from Major Highs, Lows)

Arrays
1. The best Turning Points are NOT only the highest Bars. The best Turning point is the highest Bar with a Directional Change, Panic Cycle or Cycle Low, High around that date.
2. Don’t use Arrays on the Daily scale.
3. A Cycle Low or High does not mean a high or Low in Price
4. Panic Cycle and Directional Changes could mean Up and Down. You have to look at the Reversals and Resistance levels to know best.
5. Cycle Inversions are Turning Points where the Price is keep moving in the same direction. They are normal in a vertical market and they unfold routinely when trends are shifting.

GMW
1. The GMW is simply a pattern recognition system to see where a potential Trade could emerge.

Energy
1. MA often refers to the Energy, if that Model is peaking without a new High in Price, it is an indicator that the High is in place. And warns of a retest of support.

Gaps
1. Also MA is looking for Reversal Gaps to maximize the potential Trade.

Indicators
1. (Copied)….Immediate to Intermediate provide the indications for the market on a short-term trend perspective. The last four indicators from Long-term up provide the top down viewpoint. When all are in a bullish mode, the trend is really booming so you then look to the next reversal above the market for target resistance. When this is all bearish, you look to the next reversal below for support. You will notice the indicators will start to change as a market is shifting direction. When everything is in a bear mode, you will find a more serious decline in underway.   
Long-Term Trend ........... BULLISH
Cyclical Strength.......... BULLISH.  (Abrupt Price Movement over 15% from the last important High or Low)
Broader Trend ............. BULLISH
Long-Term Cyclical Trend .. BULLISH

Like I said, still have my problems in master that Strategy. If you could share some of your knowledge would be helpfull.
Also, socrates is using the Reuters Price-level, which is often different to my brokers. And I have watched the system electing a reversal when it should not. I wrote an mail and obviously it was a bug. So these things make it even more complicated.

[Strike Eagle 26]

That method is asking a bit much for them all to be in alignment and you are over complicating it. You could simply play it by the reversals exclusively and you would have a lot more success. The Reversal system is the ONLY game in town just keep the reversals as the key Armstrong has told us time and time again. The Reversals and Cycles are the trade tools. The GMW is simply an alert system, It is not intended to be a trading tool. and it's not very reliable as is still learning.  I would argue the most important thing to focus on is the reversal system and the array's which is bringing both time(1#) and price(2#)  together.

Regarding the array's
"Turning points in price (high or low) unfold on BOTH the highest and lowest bars. There is NO direct relationship between turning points and highs and lows in the array. A low in price may unfold with the highest plot and a high could form on the lowest plot. The higher the bar the higher the probability that we are going to get something that moves then. The highest bars tend to be the strongest turning points on all of them."
Also there is nothing wrong with using the array on the daily level that’s a way to enter and exit the market. The reason why the daily array seems to look so different day to day is because the charting is proportional, and not explicit. Keep that in mind.

Regarding the directional change Armstrong has said 
 1.    They are only interested really in the directional that whatever direction we were in it should reverse. Sometimes we will get them back to back and we will get a sharp high and a sharp low , a very choppy attitude out of it.
2. During periods of high volatility, it is more common to find the Turning Point and Directional Change converge during the same time period. This normally occurs when a market is making a spike low or high.
3. A Directional Change can be a turn, but it can also be a launch pad.

I  think the key is to look for the gaps between reversals and not trade them if there are clusters of support or resistance just above or below a elected reversal as was the case in the Dow yesterday.

Other important reversal system points by Armstrong

4. If you penetrate a reversal and then FAIL to elect it, this typically signals a move back in the opposite direction.
5.         Reversals that are elected by only a few ticks offer the best indication of immediate follow-through
6. Each market reacts in a slightly different manner to the Reversals. The metals, currencies and bonds have a high degree of precision.
7. The election of a Reversal normally indicates that the expected high or low that should unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time, be it daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly. Therefore, a low might develop the very next day following the election of a Daily Bearish Reversal or within the next few days. The same is true for all price activity levels.
8. Experienced traders can use Reversal Points for the opposite of their intended use. For example, a trader could place an order to buy against a Bearish Reversal with a protective stop just below


• .

What markets are you having a problem with? the only issue for me regarding that is with the currencies.

[whizzledog]

Thank God, I finally found someone with a lot of background….
I usually trade the Dow, EUR-USD and Gold on Weekly basis. But I used the Advanced buy against the Reversals Strategy. And I made some Money and then lost it again….
So I decided to research more and change the strategy.

If I understand you correctly.
You are trade on the Daily level, and as soon as a reversal is elected you open a position and not trade if a cluster is appearing…Do you look at the arrays for the Entry as well? Are you only trading in trend direction?
The Problem on the Daily basis is the arrays are telling me 80% of the time, today (whatever day it is) is the Turning Point.

Could you just tell me exactly how you follow the Reversals. For Example in the Dow we had a Weekly Bearish on march 8th. But the price moved up. The Daily Arrays refer to the 13th. As Turning point, but at this time you would have lost the Money. On the Daily we elected 3 Daily Bearish march 22th and the price never came back to the 25.518. Afterwards we elected the next Daily Bearish on march 26th and then came the move up….

So you have to do more than simply buy when a Bullish Reversal is elected and sell when a bearish reversal is elected…..But what?
I really don’t see how I can play the reversals right….


Also i am not sure about a statment from MA about the Dow(13th March): there is no rush to jump in, until we take out the fourth reversal….But 4 Reversals mean a move to the other direction. So what he wants to tell us?