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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615745 times)
Thekees
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January 15, 2019, 05:42:21 PM
 #4781

Looking like Armstrongs call for moving up into the week of the 21st is coming true.

Yeah, it tested the 24089 daily reversal in the overnight market and now again.
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Thekees
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January 15, 2019, 05:57:30 PM
 #4782

The array and reversals have been doing their job for the currencies though.

The EURUSD crashed after testing the weekly reversal at 1.15600 and the GBPUSD also just penetrated the weekly 1.29280 and has been dropping like a brick since.
One more trade I took was the USDCHF where price dropped way below the monthly and weekly, both around 0.97900 but then closed above it by Friday. I have been checking the crash levels Socrates was giving and the crash support on Thursday and Friday was 0.97370, price penetrated it on thursday and then again by only 20pips on Friday before shooting up. This last one could be a coincidence as Socrates does give a lot of numbers.
I am curious if the next weekly bearish reversal was also around the 0.97370 level.

There is something to the reversals and the arrays, it is just difficult if you don´t have all the information.
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January 17, 2019, 09:28:35 AM
 #4783


The key day for a target will be Monday 21st. The following week of the 28th remains  as a Panic Cycle. We still see a
closing above 24089 should point to the test of the 25000 area. There will still be the risk of a retest of the lows after the 21st.

Not a lot to interpret here so lets see if he is correct.
Although for the sceptics, 24000 and 25000 are also just big round numbers and often function as support and resistance levels/zones. But his prediction of the Monday high is very specific.
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January 17, 2019, 03:08:46 PM
 #4784

The Panic Cycle for the week after the 21st's implies that it is possible to see another high above the 21st's, although not necessarily. In either case, it still looks like we should drop. How is everyone else playing this? I'm thinking monthly put options at least around 100 points out on SPX to be purchased on Monday. Shorter dated ones can be bought but you gotta remember the theta issue. Even so, cheap biweekly options can become much more than a tenbagger.
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January 17, 2019, 05:55:49 PM
Last edit: January 17, 2019, 06:44:08 PM by Gumbi
 #4785

The Panic Cycle for the week after the 21st's implies that it is possible to see another high above the 21st's, although not necessarily. In either case, it still looks like we should drop. How is everyone else playing this? I'm thinking monthly put options at least around 100 points out on SPX to be purchased on Monday. Shorter dated ones can be bought but you gotta remember the theta issue. Even so, cheap biweekly options can become much more than a tenbagger.

The high on Monday the 21st should be it since time is up. The panic cycle means it should move in both directions probably a reaction high on Monday the 28th and then down again. The SPX put sounds like a good trade.  

Regarding the skeptics just remember we need someone on the other side to trade against if you think its a good time to buy someone else has to think its a good time to sell. So we don't want everyone following this model. Armstrong cycles/model goes against what the government wants you to believe which is that they are in control and if Martin becomes too popular he may be targeted again by the deep state and then its all over.
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January 17, 2019, 07:08:02 PM
 #4786

The Panic Cycle for the week after the 21st's implies that it is possible to see another high above the 21st's, although not necessarily. In either case, it still looks like we should drop. How is everyone else playing this? I'm thinking monthly put options at least around 100 points out on SPX to be purchased on Monday. Shorter dated ones can be bought but you gotta remember the theta issue. Even so, cheap biweekly options can become much more than a tenbagger.

The high on Monday the 21st should be it since time is up. The panic cycle means it should move in both directions probably a reaction high on Monday the 28th and then down again. The SPX put sounds like a good trade.  

Regarding the skeptics just remember we need someone on the other side to trade against if you think its a good time to buy someone else has to think its a good time to sell. So we don't want everyone following this model. Armstrong cycles/model goes against what the government wants you to believe which is that they are in control and if Martin becomes too popular he may be targeted again by the deep state and then its all over.

Panic Cycle can also mean exceeding the previous session in one direction before moving. An outside reversal. That would still not invalidate the call if a lower close is achieved. As Armstrong mentions, it is unlikely that we will have a drop as intense as previously.

Armstrong has mentioned that it is impossible for everyone to follow Socrates. It's just part of the cycle. We have many sceptics on this very forum so it won't matter how it's told; there will always be someone on the other side. So it won't hinder it's effectiveness.

I'm just hoping for another nice VIX crush to get puts on the low.
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January 17, 2019, 07:32:18 PM
 #4787

I understand that but the point is this model can only exist if it remains on the fringe. They deep state tried to kill him in prison, he was in a coma for days and odds are they would of succeeded.  the only reason Armstrong's model goes on is because he has been labeled as a fraud by those in power. That's why nobody wants his posts being reported on the news or anywhere else. The government may turn a blind eye now but if his popularity grows and makes headlines its already the beginning of the end since the implications are that government has no power and is at the mercy of cycles/free market and all there promises mean nothing, the emperor has no clothes.
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January 17, 2019, 07:49:04 PM
 #4788

I understand that but the point is this model can only exist if it remains on the fringe. They deep state tried to kill him in prison, he was in a coma for days and odds are they would of succeeded.  the only reason Armstrong's model goes on is because he has been labeled as a fraud by those in power. That's why nobody wants his posts being reported on the news or anywhere else. The government may turn a blind eye now but if his popularity grows and makes headlines its already the beginning of the end since the implications are that government has no power and is at the mercy of cycles/free market and all there promises mean nothing, the emperor has no clothes.


I disagree. Armstrong has specifically addressed this particular issue. That's why he said he let it become public. People have known since ancient times that the government is not able to control things to the end.
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January 17, 2019, 11:17:16 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2019, 03:12:41 AM by Gumbi
 #4789

I understand that but the point is this model can only exist if it remains on the fringe. They deep state tried to kill him in prison, he was in a coma for days and odds are they would of succeeded.  the only reason Armstrong's model goes on is because he has been labeled as a fraud by those in power. That's why nobody wants his posts being reported on the news or anywhere else. The government may turn a blind eye now but if his popularity grows and makes headlines its already the beginning of the end since the implications are that government has no power and is at the mercy of cycles/free market and all there promises mean nothing, the emperor has no clothes.


I disagree. Armstrong has specifically addressed this particular issue. That's why he said he let it become public. People have known since ancient times that the government is not able to control things to the end.


The government cant control things period, at most they can reduce the volatility during a boom and a bust. the majority certainty do not believe that the cycles dominate and that the free markets/business cycle will always win, man thinks he is in control but that clearly is not the case.
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January 18, 2019, 03:37:37 PM
 #4790

So, Monday is closed for MLK day. Either today or Tuesday should be the high. Maybe half in today and half in Tuesday.
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January 18, 2019, 08:41:45 PM
 #4791

What we have going on in the Dow is a classic example that the Reversal System is great at - showing the gaps in markets. I explained that the Daily Bullish in the Dow was at 24089 but there was a GAP up to the first Weekly at the 25004 level. This is what happens when there are no reversals in an area going up or down. I look for the GAPS for big moves.

This was the setup for the 1987 Crash. We elected a pair of Double Weekly Bearish and there was a GAP with nothing between there and the next Monthly. That GAP was filled in 2 days.

ONLY a closing today ABOVE the Weekly Bullish would indicate follow-through to the upside. Otherwise, I would take profit against the Weekly Reversal, flip and place the stop just about the high achieved. It either works or it fails but the risk is low. Yes it can fail. But you do not lose the farm.

Remember that timing is the MOST IMPORTANT. We are closing in on a Directional Change.

That is the raw text. MA, here's your clear short signal.
footlong24seven
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January 19, 2019, 01:33:27 AM
 #4792

Bike - I get the private blog posts too, but only the private blog and not Soc. Please don't leave this board - I've been lurking here for months and people like you are why I visit. We need to keep this discussion objective and you do a great job at it. You constantly say Soc's reversals are "helpful" with your other strategies...care to elaborate?

From just reading the Private posts, Marty put up the weekly bullish at 24089, so on Wednesday morning I went balls deep knowing the next reversal wasn't until 25k. I thought, "After all these years of piecing together his cryptic stuff, am I understanding correctly that he's saying we're going to rally almost 900 pts into the 21st?" That was a great call by Marty. I sold my SPY calls this afternoon for a nice 120% gain.

Since he said the high would be Friday close or Tuesday morning latest, I bought SPY puts @ close. Let's see if he's "the oracle" after all.

I'm amazed that he said Friday would close at the high or Tuesday would open at the high but then that would be it. That is REALLY specific from Marty. If the market opened positive and then closed negative on Fri that would have killed his credibility on my part.

I also noticed that his reversals line up, nearly identically, with Fibonacci fan projections and pivots/retracements. Any thoughts, gentlemen?   
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January 19, 2019, 02:16:21 AM
 #4793

I understand that but the point is this model can only exist if it remains on the fringe. They deep state tried to kill him in prison, he was in a coma for days and odds are they would of succeeded.  the only reason Armstrong's model goes on is because he has been labeled as a fraud by those in power. That's why nobody wants his posts being reported on the news or anywhere else. The government may turn a blind eye now but if his popularity grows and makes headlines its already the beginning of the end since the implications are that government has no power and is at the mercy of cycles/free market and all there promises mean nothing, the emperor has no clothes.


I disagree. Armstrong has specifically addressed this particular issue. That's why he said he let it become public. People have known since ancient times that the government is not able to control things to the end.
I think the government is the most powerful person in managing a country, and I think they are controlling everything for the welfare of the people. but indeed their policies are sometimes incompatible with minorities, and as if they were authoritarian

bikefront
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January 19, 2019, 03:20:28 AM
 #4794

Bike - I get the private blog posts too, but only the private blog and not Soc. Please don't leave this board - I've been lurking here for months and people like you are why I visit. We need to keep this discussion objective and you do a great job at it. You constantly say Soc's reversals are "helpful" with your other strategies...care to elaborate?

From just reading the Private posts, Marty put up the weekly bullish at 24089, so on Wednesday morning I went balls deep knowing the next reversal wasn't until 25k. I thought, "After all these years of piecing together his cryptic stuff, am I understanding correctly that he's saying we're going to rally almost 900 pts into the 21st?" That was a great call by Marty. I sold my SPY calls this afternoon for a nice 120% gain.

Since he said the high would be Friday close or Tuesday morning latest, I bought SPY puts @ close. Let's see if he's "the oracle" after all.

I'm amazed that he said Friday would close at the high or Tuesday would open at the high but then that would be it. That is REALLY specific from Marty. If the market opened positive and then closed negative on Fri that would have killed his credibility on my part.

I also noticed that his reversals line up, nearly identically, with Fibonacci fan projections and pivots/retracements. Any thoughts, gentlemen?   

Thank you. My personal strategy is supply and demand on daily+ candlestick levels. I look for points where the market made highs, lows, opens, and closes most often. I then see if the market has tested that area, the kind of momentum going in, and so on to gauge the likelihood of a reversal, depending on timeframe. The daily level would be enough to trade intraday, the Weekly level for holding overnight, etc. But when I don't know the direction, Socrates points the way. This helps me choose points to follow the trend- I would buy on pullbacks in an uptrend on those points and avoid shorting except for quick scalp trades. Its actually really accurate and following the trend helps a lot.

Yes, that's a great way to trade the Reversals. Just remember that it can't always be exact- but getting most of the move is fine, which it does. I also purchased a huge amount of puts into the close- I think QQQ might be the best, as the Nasdaq declined the most from the last selloff. Armstrong said the SPX had a steeper curve than the Dow or something like that so I assumed that the Nasdaq would be even more so. I still kinda hope Tuesday is the high so I can add to the short position, but its fine either way.

Sometimes the Reversals line up with my numbers, sometimes not. Enough lines will eventually give alignment I guess. I find it very interesting when he said that the 21st is a point that is cropping up in other markets. It could be a major event. "Yes, you are correct. We could peak on the close on Friday or first thing Tuesday morning. However, the 21st is showing up in markets globally that will be open. So whatever this is, it appears to be a confidence issue and interestingly Prime Minister May must put forth a new BREXIT proposal by the 21st."

I've followed Armstrong for some time and pieced it together eventually- some of these calls give me goosebumps. I made around 200% on his call for the low with short term options but sold early. I remember seeing the arrays for the first time in January 2018. Understood nothing except the bottom volatility portion that spiked for February. We all know how that went.
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January 19, 2019, 04:43:07 AM
 #4795


Sometimes the Reversals line up with my numbers, sometimes not. Enough lines will eventually give alignment I guess. I find it very interesting when he said that the 21st is a point that is cropping up in other markets. It could be a major event. "Yes, you are correct. We could peak on the close on Friday or first thing Tuesday morning. However, the 21st is showing up in markets globally that will be open. So whatever this is, it appears to be a confidence issue and interestingly Prime Minister May must put forth a new BREXIT proposal by the 21st."

I've followed Armstrong for some time and pieced it together eventually- some of these calls give me goosebumps. I made around 200% on his call for the low with short term options but sold early. I remember seeing the arrays for the first time in January 2018. Understood nothing except the bottom volatility portion that spiked for February. We all know how that went.

I'm starting to piece it together, too, and despite the naysayers in this blog there is a method to the madness, goosebumps and all once you have that moment of clarity. For me this trade just FELT right. Exuberance when the market was supposed to drop, and now everyone expects follow-through next week. But like Marty said, we're out of time. Somehow it feels like that's right (BLOOD MOON /s).

Also note I remember reading on the pvt blog somewhere that the Euro would retest 113.1 and then the Euro's decline and the Dow's advance would "flip" going into next week, again lining up with the 21st. Euro action on Fri did almost exactly that. HOW?? 
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January 19, 2019, 03:44:28 PM
 #4796


Sometimes the Reversals line up with my numbers, sometimes not. Enough lines will eventually give alignment I guess. I find it very interesting when he said that the 21st is a point that is cropping up in other markets. It could be a major event. "Yes, you are correct. We could peak on the close on Friday or first thing Tuesday morning. However, the 21st is showing up in markets globally that will be open. So whatever this is, it appears to be a confidence issue and interestingly Prime Minister May must put forth a new BREXIT proposal by the 21st."

I've followed Armstrong for some time and pieced it together eventually- some of these calls give me goosebumps. I made around 200% on his call for the low with short term options but sold early. I remember seeing the arrays for the first time in January 2018. Understood nothing except the bottom volatility portion that spiked for February. We all know how that went.

I'm starting to piece it together, too, and despite the naysayers in this blog there is a method to the madness, goosebumps and all once you have that moment of clarity. For me this trade just FELT right. Exuberance when the market was supposed to drop, and now everyone expects follow-through next week. But like Marty said, we're out of time. Somehow it feels like that's right (BLOOD MOON /s).

Also note I remember reading on the pvt blog somewhere that the Euro would retest 113.1 and then the Euro's decline and the Dow's advance would "flip" going into next week, again lining up with the 21st. Euro action on Fri did almost exactly that. HOW?? 

Same man, I'm feeling this one too. I was looking at a few chat places that were bearish but even bears became bulls. Sentiment has changed. I'll probably add to my short next session.

This alignment in multiple markets with the arrays is something I've seen before and seems significant and more probable.

MA, how's this? Although sometimes members are not sure about what Armstrong's calls mean and we don't agree, sometimes we do. This is one of those times. So in those cases when we're sure and crystal clear, we can make the trade and tally the win/loss based only on those calls to see Armstrong's accuracy. We can't expect Armstrong to know every market fluctuation, but sometimes there are clear Reversal trades, array alignment, etc. that we can trade.
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January 19, 2019, 10:27:53 PM
 #4797

Well, that was quite the ride from Dec 26 to Jan 18. The US markets are closed on Monday so I went to cash on Friday at the close. Thats about 15% gains for me on a larger portfolio. Maybe I should quit for the year haha nice gains already.

Armstrong stating directional change next week and panic cycle the week after with a possible target on the week of Feb 11.

Main message from him this week Time first, price second. Armstrong has been more clear lately I am finding on the private blog. Amazing calls for the highs of 2018 and the Dec low.

Still looking forward to his 2019 market report.
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January 21, 2019, 06:22:42 AM
 #4798

I think if and whenever Socrates "Trader version" goes live we will see the combo of timing with the reversals. Maybe socrates could write a report on the timing of that? haha. A true buy and sell indicator if in when it goes live. As you know emotions are what kill traders. Following an AI computer will do much better than most and should outperform the indexes easily. I have traded for myself for almost 30 years. Armstrong is one of many people I read and follow. Some excellent calls and some other were bumped down the road.

p.s. I believe a silver benchmark is on 2019-01-07. I have it marked on my calendar. Here is a chart of the last few benchmarks in silver.

https://ibb.co/Yffkk7W


Here is an updated chart on the silver benchmark post. Bang on

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fyOeUPsf/

Thekees
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January 21, 2019, 10:30:07 AM
 #4799

I think if and whenever Socrates "Trader version" goes live we will see the combo of timing with the reversals. Maybe socrates could write a report on the timing of that? haha. A true buy and sell indicator if in when it goes live. As you know emotions are what kill traders. Following an AI computer will do much better than most and should outperform the indexes easily. I have traded for myself for almost 30 years. Armstrong is one of many people I read and follow. Some excellent calls and some other were bumped down the road.

p.s. I believe a silver benchmark is on 2019-01-07. I have it marked on my calendar. Here is a chart of the last few benchmarks in silver.

https://ibb.co/Yffkk7W


Here is an updated chart on the silver benchmark post. Bang on

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fyOeUPsf/



I just came to comment on that! Also, Soc said price closed below the crash support on Friday so we price should crash today.

"We did break below the intraday Crash Point number warning that this is a panic sell-off type of move. We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 154657 settling at 155360. The current crash mode support for this session was 154273 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 152895. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session."

It says the same for the DOW, but for breaking out:
"We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 2445046 settling at 2437010 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 2464431 which we have now closed above suggesting the market is starting to possibly breakout to the upside if it can be maintain in the next trading session. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 2494655. Normally, when you open back below this resistance number or closed back below it then the rally is losing momentum. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session."

The next breakout resistance indicator is 2494655 which is almost the same as the Daily Bullish at 24952. This is my take profit target and where I will then sell.

Also, I cant remember the last time Armstrong actually gave some trading advice. He has said sell here and put the stop there, normally he never even mentions stops or entry points just lots of what ifs and you will have to use your own judgement for the stop level.




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January 21, 2019, 02:27:00 PM
 #4800

Regarding silver, that benchmark date was published back in 2016!

Yes, some benchmark dates have been continuation moves but others have marked turning points. Silver continues to sell. Obviously stops should be placed and care should be taken with any trade.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/N5qNkBMI/
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