Cricket match prediction discussions

[Vaskiy]

Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC) has entered in to a deal with Sony Sports for media rights during the 2023-2027 cycle. The deal is worth only around $23 million, although there was a bidding war between Sony and Disney Star. Now the attention will be shifting to BCCI and PCB tenders, which will come out in the next few months. Currently the BCCI is having a 5-year deal with Disney-Star for 2018-2023, which is worth ₹6,277 crore. For the next cycle (2024-2028), we can expect this amount to increase by manytimes.

@Sithara007 that’s a very raw deal for Srilanka, I’m surprised that they have settled for so less and in my personal opinion they should have turned down this deal and called in for fresh bids. Furthermore I expect Pakistan will receive better bids as most of the countries are now visiting it, and obviously the highest bids will go to team India and I wonder if it’ll beat the previous records what do you think?

For sure the highest deals will go with India. The market is big and the revenue out of cricket from India is massive. With more and more leagues being conducted throughout the year it is possible for them to make the best out of it. With the PSL, the cricketing in Pakistan looks to be in better position. Maybe this can have them better price than the past.

[1714531093]

1714531093

[Sithara007]

@Sithara007 that’s a very raw deal for Srilanka, I’m surprised that they have settled for so less and in my personal opinion they should have turned down this deal and called in for fresh bids. Furthermore I expect Pakistan will receive better bids as most of the countries are now visiting it, and obviously the highest bids will go to team India and I wonder if it’ll beat the previous records what do you think?

They don't have a lot of options. The media rights deal with Sony for the previous cycle (2018-2023) was more lucrative when compared to the current one. But this time Sony bargained really hard, since the number of matches involving India is low. SLC did some last minute negotiations with the BCCI to schedule one more Indian tour, but the packed calendar for the Indian team didn't allowed that. SLC is in a difficult situation. Their franchise league is also not brining in a lot of revenues, and for the near future they will be dependent heavily on the funds from ICC.

I am personally interested to see how far Bermuda can go . Still remember watching Bermuda play in the world cup a long time ago. I honestly do not even remember when was the last time Bermuda played in the world cup. I just remember some really fat players diving to catch the ball .

It was Dwayne Leverock, who took that catch. 2007 was the only occasion when Bermuda qualified for the ODI cricket world cup. They played 3 matches, and lost all of them (against India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka). And they lost all these matches by big margins - lost to Sri Lanka by 243 runs, lost to India by 257 runs and then went down against Bangladesh by 7 wickets.

[savetheFORUM]

For sure the highest deals will go with India. The market is big and the revenue out of cricket from India is massive. With more and more leagues being conducted throughout the year it is possible for them to make the best out of it. With the PSL, the cricketing in Pakistan looks to be in better position. Maybe this can have them better price than the past.

Few years back Pakistan was also having luxury deal with some Indian media groups but sadly due to Modi regime the was ended and Indian media house pullout of this deal which was big setback for the PCB, but now they have their deals with TEN SPORTS which is also part of the Sony Sports and this is also good even not luxury like they have first, but currently situation is not good for the another big deal specially political instability is at his highest level and peoples are also suffering badly due to grocery and petrol high prices life is going tough for common peoples these all factors going to have problems and I have feeling they will not have big dealt which is expected but most chances they could be able to have reasonable contract for the next tenure.

[BobK71]

For sure the highest deals will go with India. The market is big and the revenue out of cricket from India is massive. With more and more leagues being conducted throughout the year it is possible for them to make the best out of it. With the PSL, the cricketing in Pakistan looks to be in better position. Maybe this can have them better price than the past.

Few years back Pakistan was also having luxury deal with some Indian media groups but sadly due to Modi regime the was ended and Indian media house pullout of this deal which was big setback for the PCB, but now they have their deals with TEN SPORTS which is also part of the Sony Sports and this is also good even not luxury like they have first, but currently situation is not good for the another big deal specially political instability is at his highest level and peoples are also suffering badly due to grocery and petrol high prices life is going tough for common peoples these all factors going to have problems and I have feeling they will not have big dealt which is expected but most chances they could be able to have reasonable contract for the next tenure.

If these two countries do not take any aggressive policy without being hostile to each other, then the cricket world will remain entirely within the Asian continent. But as good as Pakistan is doing, it will take a lot of time to catch up with India. I doubt if any other nation has the genuine love that Indians have for cricket. I am not belittling any country. Pakistan is also a very potential country in cricket. In area and population Pakistan is smaller than India but they are relatively well developed in cricket.

[S A KHAIR]

It was Dwayne Leverock, who took that catch. 2007 was the only occasion when Bermuda qualified for the ODI cricket world cup. They played 3 matches, and lost all of them (against India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka). And they lost all these matches by big margins - lost to Sri Lanka by 243 runs, lost to India by 257 runs and then went down against Bangladesh by 7 wickets.

2007 world cup was really dumb, especially the final. I mean it had a lot of teams participating. But the problem is the final was not good at all. I believe it was also the best world cup in terms of quality and teams played.

Anyway, watching Bermuda in the world cup again is going to be very interesting. I am actually really interested to see the type of players, especially the physicality of the players that Bermuda will play in the world cup. I hope that the physicality of the players is going to be better compared to what it was in 2007.

[Sithara007]

2007 world cup was really dumb, especially the final. I mean it had a lot of teams participating. But the problem is the final was not good at all. I believe it was also the best world cup in terms of quality and teams played.

Anyway, watching Bermuda in the world cup again is going to be very interesting. I am actually really interested to see the type of players, especially the physicality of the players that Bermuda will play in the world cup. I hope that the physicality of the players is going to be better compared to what it was in 2007.

I liked the 2007 format and it was the only edition which can be called as the "world" cup. There were a total of 16 participants, and all the geographies were represented. But then, this world cup turned out to be a disaster for the ICC, as India and Pakistan both failed to progress from the group stage. And as a result, they reduced the number of participants from 16 to 10 (just to avoid the possibility of India and Pakistan losing to associate teams). And I won't be really surprised in case they further reduce the number of teams to 8 or even 6.

Bermuda is a small island nation with a population of 60,000 or so. Ideally they should have been included in the West Indies team. But similar to the case with Cayman Islands and Bahamas, Bermuda cricket association decided to participate in ICC qualifiers as an associate member rather than as a part of the WICB. And back in 2007, they included David Hemp in the squad and he managed to score a total of 90 runs in 3 matches to give them some sort of respectability (including 76 not out against India).

[Tony116]

Few years back Pakistan was also having luxury deal with some Indian media groups but sadly due to Modi regime the was ended and Indian media house pullout of this deal which was big setback for the PCB, but now they have their deals with TEN SPORTS which is also part of the Sony Sports and this is also good even not luxury like they have first, but currently situation is not good for the another big deal specially political instability is at his highest level and peoples are also suffering badly due to grocery and petrol high prices life is going tough for common peoples these all factors going to have problems and I have feeling they will not have big dealt which is expected but most chances they could be able to have reasonable contract for the next tenure.

If these two countries do not take any aggressive policy without being hostile to each other, then the cricket world will remain entirely within the Asian continent. But as good as Pakistan is doing, it will take a lot of time to catch up with India. I doubt if any other nation has the genuine love that Indians have for cricket. I am not belittling any country. Pakistan is also a very potential country in cricket. In area and population Pakistan is smaller than India but they are relatively well developed in cricket.

Actually, nothing is going to "work out" between these teams. Actually, nothing is going to honestly work out between these countries, to be honest. And we all know which country is actually going to be the winner when it comes to having ICC convincing about anything. The problem is Pakistan knows very well that the odds are not in their favor. They also know very well that they are not making money anything close to what India is making right now. But they still do not want to back down. They still want to do what they think is right.

That is obviously brave but I'm going to say that is stupid as well. But at this moment nothing else comes to my mind except for that.

[Sithara007]

Actually, nothing is going to "work out" between these teams. Actually, nothing is going to honestly work out between these countries, to be honest. And we all know which country is actually going to be the winner when it comes to having ICC convincing about anything. The problem is Pakistan knows very well that the odds are not in their favor. They also know very well that they are not making money anything close to what India is making right now. But they still do not want to back down. They still want to do what they think is right.

That is obviously brave but I'm going to say that is stupid as well. But at this moment nothing else comes to my mind except for that.

Rather than blaming India, the PCB should look in to their own deficiencies. Despite having a population of 250 million, the media rights market is very small in Pakistan as a result of government regulations such as content sharing requirement. OTT revenues are impacted by low broadband coverage and slow internet speed. Despite all that, when Rameez Raja was the PCB chief, he managed to sign a few lucrative deals with PSL franchises and media houses. There is a lot of potential for PCB to earn revenue, especially from the PSL. But due to various reasons, this potential is never realized to the maximum extent. And right now Pakistan is going through difficult economic conditions, and I don't think that there is much room for maneuvering.

[S A KHAIR]

I liked the 2007 format and it was the only edition which can be called as the "world" cup. There were a total of 16 participants, and all the geographies were represented. But then, this world cup turned out to be a disaster for the ICC, as India and Pakistan both failed to progress from the group stage. And as a result, they reduced the number of participants from 16 to 10 (just to avoid the possibility of India and Pakistan losing to associate teams). And I won't be really surprised in case they further reduce the number of teams to 8 or even 6.
Bermuda is a small island nation with a population of 60,000 or so. Ideally they should have been included in the West Indies team. But similar to the case with Cayman Islands and Bahamas, Bermuda cricket association decided to participate in ICC qualifiers as an associate member rather than as a part of the WICB. And back in 2007, they included David Hemp in the squad and he managed to score a total of 90 runs in 3 matches to give them some sort of respectability (including 76 not out against India).

I agree with you, the number of teams that participated in the 2007 World cup was really good. And that was the only world cup that could be called a "World Cup". But the quality was not maintained in the world cup. In my opinion. A lot of matches had to be played short because of the rain interruption. And the way the final match was decided was really a shame.

[Tony116]

Rather than blaming India, the PCB should look in to their own deficiencies. Despite having a population of 250 million, the media rights market is very small in Pakistan as a result of government regulations such as content sharing requirement. OTT revenues are impacted by low broadband coverage and slow internet speed. Despite all that, when Rameez Raja was the PCB chief, he managed to sign a few lucrative deals with PSL franchises and media houses. There is a lot of potential for PCB to earn revenue, especially from the PSL. But due to various reasons, this potential is never realized to the maximum extent. And right now Pakistan is going through difficult economic conditions, and I don't think that there is much room for maneuvering.

First of all, I want to clear something up. I am actually not blaming India. They have also been through their fair share of "Bad luck". Now they have become a force of power but they have done so with a lot of hard work and pain. Pakistan cricket board has to realize that if they want to become a force like India, it is not going to be handed out to them. They also have to work really hard. Which I doubt they are actually doing.

On another side of things, I don't think it is actually fair to blame the Pakistan cricket board. Because the politics of that country is absolutely in shambles.

[JSRAW]

Speaking of media rights, there are some rumors that ICC sold England's (4 years) and Australia's (8 years) media rights for about $400-$500M, which is very low.  

They are not disclosing the details hence the rumors are floating around. If it's true then Indian broadcasters won't be happy with this development for sure and ofc BCCI too.

Don't forget when ICC sold Indian media rights, news of a $3.1 Billion deal was out in the media within hours.

Edit

ICC sources leaked the news and in the next couple of days made the public announcement.

One thing we have to realize is the Australian and English people are very good at keeping secrets. But that's not the case when it comes to India.
Indian people generally cannot or do not choose to keep a secret a "secret" for a long period of time. Even if they do, someone from the inside is going to leak the news.
And that's not the case in England or Australia. Forgive me if it feels like I am generalizing a lot of things. But this is my assumption.

[laurenB7742]

Speaking of media rights, there are some rumors that ICC sold England's (4 years) and Australia's (8 years) media rights for about $400-$500M, which is very low.  

They are not disclosing the details hence the rumors are floating around. If it's true then Indian broadcasters won't be happy with this development for sure and ofc BCCI too.

Don't forget when ICC sold Indian media rights, news of a $3.1 Billion deal was out in the media within hours.

One thing we have to realize is the Australian and English people are very good at keeping secrets. But that's not the case when it comes to India.
Indian people generally cannot or do not choose to keep a secret a "secret" for a long period of time. Even if they do, someone from the inside is going to leak the news.
And that's not the case in England or Australia. Forgive me if it feels like I am generalizing a lot of things. But this is my assumption.

[romero121]

Speaking of media rights, there are some rumors that ICC sold England's (4 years) and Australia's (8 years) media rights for about $400-$500M, which is very low.  

They are not disclosing the details hence the rumors are floating around. If it's true then Indian broadcasters won't be happy with this development for sure and ofc BCCI too.

Don't forget when ICC sold Indian media rights, news of a $3.1 Billion deal was out in the media within hours.

One thing we have to realize is the Australian and English people are very good at keeping secrets. But that's not the case when it comes to India.
Indian people generally cannot or do not choose to keep a secret a "secret" for a long period of time. Even if they do, someone from the inside is going to leak the news.
And that's not the case in England or Australia. Forgive me if it feels like I am generalizing a lot of things. But this is my assumption.

Everywhere there'll be insiders who provide information to the media. When it comes to India the competence is high to reveal a news as the agencies were found more and for the trp rating the media could go to any extent and take news.

In Australia and England the news providers have got certain limitations, beyond that they cannot take things forward. This is the reason why the news relative to BCCI or India easily gets leaked against the other leading cricketing nations.

[Sithara007]

Speaking of media rights, there are some rumors that ICC sold England's (4 years) and Australia's (8 years) media rights for about $400-$500M, which is very low.  

They are not disclosing the details hence the rumors are floating around. If it's true then Indian broadcasters won't be happy with this development for sure and ofc BCCI too.

Don't forget when ICC sold Indian media rights, news of a $3.1 Billion deal was out in the media within hours.

Edit

ICC sources leaked the news and in the next couple of days made the public announcement.

One thing we have to realize is the Australian and English people are very good at keeping secrets. But that's not the case when it comes to India.
Indian people generally cannot or do not choose to keep a secret a "secret" for a long period of time. Even if they do, someone from the inside is going to leak the news.
And that's not the case in England or Australia. Forgive me if it feels like I am generalizing a lot of things. But this is my assumption.

This is the official statement from the ICC:

https://www.icc-cricket.com/media-releases/3039247

And in case of England, the deal with Sky Sports is for 8 years, and not 4 years as you are claiming. As per the ICC, this was a "direct contractual relationship" between the two sides and no bidding was involved. And I won't be surprised if the $400 million figure that you have mentioned, if it was for a 4-year period. But for 8-year period, the above mentioned amount sounds too low for me. And now coming to Australia, in normal circumstances, the media rights are sold at one-third to half of that in the UK. So it maybe around $150 to $200 million.

[JSRAW]

~edited out~
England's (4 years) and Australia's (8 years) media rights for about $400-$500M, which is very low.  

This is the official statement from the ICC:

https://www.icc-cricket.com/media-releases/3039247

And in case of England, the deal with Sky Sports is for 8 years, and not 4 years as you are claiming. As per the ICC, this was a "direct contractual relationship" between the two sides and no bidding was involved. And I won't be surprised if the $400 million figure that you have mentioned, if it was for a 4-year period. But for 8-year period, the above mentioned amount sounds too low for me. And now coming to Australia, in normal circumstances, the media rights are sold at one-third to half of that in the UK. So it maybe around $150 to $200 million.

Yeah, guess i mixed it up with ECB and CA but one of them got the raw deal of 4 years and closed door deal happened because no one was excited about it much so ICC directly approached the broadcasters.

Even if both countries fetched a $500 Million, it's not a good sign and looks undervalued or call it Indian media rights were overvalued. I'm sure it won't sit well with the BCCI-Indian broadcasters and rightly so.

[laurenB7742]

Everywhere there'll be insiders who provide information to the media. When it comes to India the competence is high to reveal a news as the agencies were found more and for the trp rating the media could go to any extent and take news.

In Australia and England the news providers have got certain limitations, beyond that they cannot take things forward. This is the reason why the news relative to BCCI or India easily gets leaked against the other leading cricketing nations.

Yes, I absolutely agree. We all know that in Australia or England if a news report does actually cross certain limits, it is going to be facing some serious issues. But in India, if you have friends in powerful places, you are not going to face too much of a problem, doesn't matter what you do. I am not saying that England and Australia are absolutely the opposite. But in India having friends in good places will save you from a lot of things which if happened in Australia or England, you might necessarily not be able to get away with.

This is the official statement from the ICC:
https://www.icc-cricket.com/media-releases/3039247
And in case of England, the deal with Sky Sports is for 8 years, and not 4 years as you are claiming. As per the ICC, this was a "direct contractual relationship" between the two sides and no bidding was involved. And I won't be surprised if the $400 million figure that you have mentioned, if it was for a 4-year period. But for 8-year period, the above mentioned amount sounds too low for me. And now coming to Australia, in normal circumstances, the media rights are sold at one-third to half of that in the UK. So it maybe around $150 to $200 million.

Yeah, guess i mixed it up with ECB and CA but one of them got the raw deal of 4 years and closed door deal happened because no one was excited about it much so ICC directly approached the broadcasters.
Even if both countries fetched a $500 Million, it's not a good sign and looks undervalued or call it Indian media rights were overvalued. I'm sure it won't sit well with the BCCI-Indian broadcasters and rightly so.

This is a huge difference when compared with Indian media rights. Well, I should say BCCI media rights. Personally, I think that the ECB and CA media rights have been undervalued. And of course, I also agree that this is going to cause a lot of controversies as well.

[Sithara007]

Yeah, guess i mixed it up with ECB and CA but one of them got the raw deal of 4 years and closed door deal happened because no one was excited about it much so ICC directly approached the broadcasters.

Even if both countries fetched a $500 Million, it's not a good sign and looks undervalued or call it Indian media rights were overvalued. I'm sure it won't sit well with the BCCI-Indian broadcasters and rightly so.

I wouldn't call the valuation for Indian market made by Disney-Star as "overvalued". Looking at the revenue numbers provided by Hotsar, they are justified in spending $1.5 billion for 4 year period (the other $1.5 billion was spent by Zee for the TV rights). OTT is a rapidly growing section of the market in India and even with cable TV/DTH the growth is very healthy. In the end, it depends on the economy as well. Indian economy is growing at a good pace (unlike the case of it's neighbors), and cricket still commands 80% to 90% share of the sports market in India.

[JSRAW]

Yeah, guess i mixed it up with ECB and CA but one of them got the raw deal of 4 years and closed door deal happened because no one was excited about it much so ICC directly approached the broadcasters.

Even if both countries fetched a $500 Million, it's not a good sign and looks undervalued or call it Indian media rights were overvalued. I'm sure it won't sit well with the BCCI-Indian broadcasters and rightly so.

I wouldn't call the valuation for Indian market made by Disney-Star as "overvalued". Looking at the revenue numbers provided by Hotsar, they are justified in spending $1.5 billion for 4 year period (the other $1.5 billion was spent by Zee for the TV rights). OTT is a rapidly growing section of the market in India and even with cable TV/DTH the growth is very healthy. In the end, it depends on the economy as well. Indian economy is growing at a good pace (unlike the case of it's neighbors), and cricket still commands 80% to 90% share of the sports market in India.

They sub-licensed TV rights to Zee later, logical step so nothing wrong with that. I used overvalued argument in the context of Eng+Aus's deal.

But overall it does raise some eyebrows when looking at the complete bidding process of all regions and for subcontinent rights, second/third bids were around $2 Billion so one could argue that Disney-Star missed a trick only because ICC went for closed bidding and not E-auction.

[Juggy777]

Yeah, guess i mixed it up with ECB and CA but one of them got the raw deal of 4 years and closed door deal happened because no one was excited about it much so ICC directly approached the broadcasters.

Even if both countries fetched a $500 Million, it's not a good sign and looks undervalued or call it Indian media rights were overvalued. I'm sure it won't sit well with the BCCI-Indian broadcasters and rightly so.

I wouldn't call the valuation for Indian market made by Disney-Star as "overvalued". Looking at the revenue numbers provided by Hotsar, they are justified in spending $1.5 billion for 4 year period (the other $1.5 billion was spent by Zee for the TV rights). OTT is a rapidly growing section of the market in India and even with cable TV/DTH the growth is very healthy. In the end, it depends on the economy as well. Indian economy is growing at a good pace (unlike the case of it's neighbors), and cricket still commands 80% to 90% share of the sports market in India.

They sub-licensed TV rights to Zee later, logical step so nothing wrong with that. I used overvalued argument in the context of Eng+Aus's deal.

But overall it does raise some eyebrows when looking at the complete bidding process of all regions and for subcontinent rights, second/third bids were around $2 Billion so one could argue that Disney-Star missed a trick only because ICC went for closed bidding and not E-auction.

@JSRAW while on paper we all felt that Hotstar paid too much, but now I start to feel that they took a calculated risk because these days many people are cutting the cord and moving towards OTT platforms like Hotstar. Furthermore Indian’s love watching cricket more than anything, hence down the line I feel that we all will end up saying that Hotstar got a cheap deal  .

[Sithara007]

They sub-licensed TV rights to Zee later, logical step so nothing wrong with that. I used overvalued argument in the context of Eng+Aus's deal.

But overall it does raise some eyebrows when looking at the complete bidding process of all regions and for subcontinent rights, second/third bids were around $2 Billion so one could argue that Disney-Star missed a trick only because ICC went for closed bidding and not E-auction.

Disney-Star still believes that they will make a profit out of the deal. The same can't be said about SKY sports in the United Kingdom. UK is a stagnant market, while India is a rapidly growing one. The deal runs from 2024 to 2027. And by 2027, I expect the OTT market in India to grow manifold. In the end, they can't complain much. ICC set the terms and they have to abide with it now. Previously there were times when Star was favored by the ICC over other providers for media rights. They won bid at times, despite quoting lower prices.