Cricket match prediction discussions

[JSRAW]

They sub-licensed TV rights to Zee later, logical step so nothing wrong with that. I used overvalued argument in the context of Eng+Aus's deal.

But overall it does raise some eyebrows when looking at the complete bidding process of all regions and for subcontinent rights, second/third bids were around $2 Billion so one could argue that Disney-Star missed a trick only because ICC went for closed bidding and not E-auction.

Disney-Star still believes that they will make a profit out of the deal. The same can't be said about SKY sports in the United Kingdom. UK is a stagnant market, while India is a rapidly growing one. The deal runs from 2024 to 2027. And by 2027, I expect the OTT market in India to grow manifold. In the end, they can't complain much. ICC set the terms and they have to abide with it now. Previously there were times when Star was favored by the ICC over other providers for media rights. They won bid at times, despite quoting lower prices.

My overall point is not about if any broadcaster making money or not but my emphasis is more on the process itself, which wasn't transparent.

In comparison to this, look at the IPL auction and the broadcasters loved it, that's why Indian broadcasters were not happy with the ICC. It reflected on bidding as we already know that second/third bids were way too low. The next cycle could be different.

[1714531997]

1714531997

[1714531997]

1714531997

[Sithara007]

My overall point is not about if any broadcaster making money or not but my emphasis is more on the process itself, which wasn't transparent.

In comparison to this, look at the IPL auction and the broadcasters loved it, that's why Indian broadcasters were not happy with the ICC. It reflected on bidding as we already know that second/third bids were way too low. The next cycle could be different.

In the end, the ICC benefited from the bidding process. If it was e-auction, then in all probability they would have received around $1 billion less. And they may continue the same system for the next cycle (2028-2031). A lot will depend on how much money Disney-Star (as well as ZEE) will make during the current cycle). E-auction system has its own benefits and disadvantages. The disadvantage is that since there are only 2-3 serious bidders, it is easy for them to enter into some sort of a backend deal and lower the auction amount. E-auction works when there are at least half a dozen active bidders. That was not the case during last time.

[JSRAW]

My overall point is not about if any broadcaster making money or not but my emphasis is more on the process itself, which wasn't transparent.

In comparison to this, look at the IPL auction and the broadcasters loved it, that's why Indian broadcasters were not happy with the ICC. It reflected on bidding as we already know that second/third bids were way too low. The next cycle could be different.

In the end, the ICC benefited from the bidding process. If it was e-auction, then in all probability they would have received around $1 billion less. And they may continue the same system for the next cycle (2028-2031). A lot will depend on how much money Disney-Star (as well as ZEE) will make during the current cycle). E-auction system has its own benefits and disadvantages. The disadvantage is that since there are only 2-3 serious bidders, it is easy for them to enter into some sort of a backend deal and lower the auction amount. E-auction works when there are at least half a dozen active bidders. That was not the case during last time.

Yeah, and still that amount would have doubled as we know the previous cycle was for 8 years.

Little more clarity on the UK (SKY deal), they paid $260 Million for 8 years period so it's fair to guess that the Australian deal might be around $100-150 Million as their contract is for 4 years only. 

Check the latter bold part (I predicted this last year when ICC cleared the $3 billion deal for Indian market), BCCI will now stir the pot as they are bringing 90% of revenue. 

A new revenue distribution model
The F&CA will begin discussions on a new model to divvy up the ICC's broadcast money (and commercial earnings) over the next rights cycle. It is not going to be a simple discussion - it wasn't for the current cycle, where the rights were sold in 2014 for eight years as one bundle to one broadcaster, for approximately USD 2.1 billion.

This time round, the ICC is selling rights separately in different regional markets, as well as unbundling them into different packages - one for TV only, one for digital only, one for both, over four and eight years - and men's and women's events treated separately. That has already brought a much greater value than the last cycle, even accounting for there being more events. Last August, Disney Star* secured the rights to broadcast ICC events in India for four years from 2024 to 2027. That deal is said to be worth just north of USD 3 billion. The ICC has also recently sold rights in the UK market to Sky Sports for eight years, in a deal worth around USD 260 million. On Friday, the ICC announced the US rights going to Willow, leaving the subcontinent rights (excluding India) to go.

So, much more money, but also more challenges in distributing it. The F&CA is headed by the BCCI secretary Jay Shah and given that the India market now has a tangible separate value, it will only strengthen the longstanding BCCI belief that they should receive a lion's share of it. Smaller members are also wanting enhanced shares, especially as they ended up with less than the expected amounts from the last cycle after ICC projections fell slightly short.

The battles over the financial model last time round were epic, not least because of the tumult caused by the Big Three takeover and then eventual rollback. The BCCI, ultimately, wasn't happy with its share. The global calendar is more fractured and complicated now, only adding to the difficulties in navigating this. The discussions will start this weekend but the expectation is to not expect a new model anytime soon.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/icc-board-meeting-set-to-discuss-india-pakistan-situation-and-the-afghanistan-question-1363981

[Sithara007]

Yeah, and still that amount would have doubled as we know the previous cycle was for 8 years.

Little more clarity on the UK (SKY deal), they paid $260 Million for 8 years period so it's fair to guess that the Australian deal might be around $100-150 Million as their contract is for 4 years only. 

Check the latter bold part (I predicted this last year when ICC cleared the $3 billion deal for Indian market), BCCI will now stir the pot as they are bringing 90% of revenue. 

$260 million for 8 years would translate to $130 million for 4 years. And I am sure that the Australian deal will be much less, and it will be $100 million at the most. So let me make the calculations:

India and rest of sub-continent: $3,040 million
England: $130 million
Australia: $100 million
Rest of the world: $80 million (approx)

Total media rights: $3,350 million ($1,010 million for 4-years period in 2019-23). Despite the low numbers from outside the sub-continent, the media rights revenue shows more than 3x appreciation. On top of that, there is revenue from sponsorship and other sources. It worked out to $350 million for the 2019-23 cycle. I would guess that this amount would increase to at least $650 million for this cycle, which will increase the total ICC revenues to $4 billion.

Now for the revenue sharing, ICC subtracts the administrative costs ($463 million for 2019-23 cycle). Let's assume that the administrative costs amount to $1 billion this time. It will leave ICC with $3 billion to distribute among the member boards. Previously this amount was $887 million (2019-23). So the amount that is available for distribution has increased by more than 3x.

[JSRAW]

Yeah, and still that amount would have doubled as we know the previous cycle was for 8 years.

Little more clarity on the UK (SKY deal), they paid $260 Million for 8 years period so it's fair to guess that the Australian deal might be around $100-150 Million as their contract is for 4 years only.  

Check the latter bold part (I predicted this last year when ICC cleared the $3 billion deal for Indian market), BCCI will now stir the pot as they are bringing 90% of revenue.  

$260 million for 8 years would translate to $130 million for 4 years. And I am sure that the Australian deal will be much less, and it will be $100 million at the most. So let me make the calculations:

India and rest of sub-continent: $3,040 million
England: $130 million
Australia: $100 million
Rest of the world: $80 million (approx)

Total media rights: $3,350 million ($1,010 million for 4-years period in 2019-23). Despite the low numbers from outside the sub-continent, the media rights revenue shows more than 3x appreciation. On top of that, there is revenue from sponsorship and other sources. It worked out to $350 million for the 2019-23 cycle. I would guess that this amount would increase to at least $650 million for this cycle, which will increase the total ICC revenues to $4 billion.

Now for the revenue sharing, ICC subtracts the administrative costs ($463 million for 2019-23 cycle). Let's assume that the administrative costs amount to $1 billion this time. It will leave ICC with $3 billion to distribute among the member boards. Previously this amount was $887 million (2019-23). So the amount that is available for distribution has increased by more than 3x.

Few add ons for context, India and rest of the sub-continent: $3,040 million ( 99% is for the Indian market) and also not sure if Rest of the world fetched $80 million but overall it's fair assumption.

The revenue sharing meeting is going to be really fun tho lol. Everyone would want a bigger pie so grab popcorn for drama. IMO now the situation is heading towards only BIG-1 model, instead of BIG-3.

[Sithara007]

Few add ons for context, India and rest of the sub-continent: $3,040 million ( 99% is for the Indian market) and also not sure if Rest of the world fetched $80 million but overall it's fair assumption.

The revenue sharing meeting is going to be really fun tho lol. Everyone would want a bigger pie so grab popcorn for drama. IMO now the situation is heading towards only BIG-1 model, instead of BIG-3.

Their meeting is scheduled for this Saturday, right?

Meanwhile, the Asian Cricket Council (ACC) has finalized their revenue distribution model without much dramatics. Share for Afghanistan has been increased from 6% of the revenues to 15%, and that means that 75% (15% each) of the revenue will go towards the five full members and the remaining 25% will go towards the associate members. For Afghanistan, the ICC funding is currently on hold, and this increased contribution from ACC may help them to honor the contracts with the players and the supporting staff. 

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/afghanistan-news-acc-increases-their-share-in-revised-financial-distribution-1357464

[WatChe]

Their meeting is scheduled for this Saturday, right?

Meanwhile, the Asian Cricket Council (ACC) has finalized their revenue distribution model without much dramatics. Share for Afghanistan has been increased from 6% of the revenues to 15%, and that means that 75% (15% each) of the revenue will go towards the five full members and the remaining 25% will go towards the associate members. For Afghanistan, the ICC funding is currently on hold, and this increased contribution from ACC may help them to honor the contracts with the players and the supporting staff. 

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/afghanistan-news-acc-increases-their-share-in-revised-financial-distribution-1357464

india, Pakistan, Srilanka and Bangladesh will get 15% each and Afghanistan share has been increased to 15%. Rest 25% will got to associate teams. India is richest board in the world and still is getting equal to what Pakistan and Srilanka are getting. Its good to see Afghanistan getting more share since they are performing good in T20 format and this increase in funding will help them grow further.

[JSRAW]

Their meeting is scheduled for this Saturday, right?

Meanwhile, the Asian Cricket Council (ACC) has finalized their revenue distribution model without much dramatics. Share for Afghanistan has been increased from 6% of the revenues to 15%, and that means that 75% (15% each) of the revenue will go towards the five full members and the remaining 25% will go towards the associate members. For Afghanistan, the ICC funding is currently on hold, and this increased contribution from ACC may help them to honor the contracts with the players and the supporting staff. 

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/afghanistan-news-acc-increases-their-share-in-revised-financial-distribution-1357464

india, Pakistan, Srilanka and Bangladesh will get 15% each and Afghanistan share has been increased to 15%. Rest 25% will got to associate teams. India is richest board in the world and still is getting equal to what Pakistan and Srilanka are getting. Its good to see Afghanistan getting more share since they are performing good in T20 format and this increase in funding will help them grow further.

A slight correction is needed in the Article.

On paper, BCCI does receive some percentage of the share but in reality, BCCI voluntarily gives up its share of revenue and never takes its share from the ACC fund.

[Sithara007]

A slight correction is needed in the Article.

On paper, BCCI does receive some percentage of the share but in reality, BCCI voluntarily gives up its share of revenue and never takes its share from the ACC fund.

LOL.. Is this true? Very difficult to believe that BCCI has become so generous towards the other boards. In case of Afghanistan, despite becoming a full member in 2017, they always received lower amount of funding compared to the other full members (during Asia Cups of 2018 and 2022). BTW, after Australia pulled out of the series against Afghanistan, the Afghanistan Cricket Board (ACB) organized a bilateral tour with Pakistan (to start by last week of March). It is still tricky how to deal with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, w.r.t sports.

[JSRAW]

A slight correction is needed in the Article.

On paper, BCCI does receive some percentage of the share but in reality, BCCI voluntarily gives up its share of revenue and never takes its share from the ACC fund.

LOL.. Is this true? Very difficult to believe that BCCI has become so generous towards the other boards. In case of Afghanistan, despite becoming a full member in 2017, they always received lower amount of funding compared to the other full members (during Asia Cups of 2018 and 2022). BTW, after Australia pulled out of the series against Afghanistan, the Afghanistan Cricket Board (ACB) organized a bilateral tour with Pakistan (to start by last week of March). It is still tricky how to deal with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, w.r.t sports.

Yup, it's true. heard this in a couple of podcasts from one reputed sports journalist, he happens to be very resourceful when following BCCI's money trail on everything like IPL, media rights deals etc.

Also, a few officials and Cricketers also said this on record a couple of times. IMO it's not generosity but they just don't care as it's not a big money and in return they earn some brownie points. 

[Juggy777]

A slight correction is needed in the Article.

On paper, BCCI does receive some percentage of the share but in reality, BCCI voluntarily gives up its share of revenue and never takes its share from the ACC fund.

LOL.. Is this true? Very difficult to believe that BCCI has become so generous towards the other boards. In case of Afghanistan, despite becoming a full member in 2017, they always received lower amount of funding compared to the other full members (during Asia Cups of 2018 and 2022). BTW, after Australia pulled out of the series against Afghanistan, the Afghanistan Cricket Board (ACB) organized a bilateral tour with Pakistan (to start by last week of March). It is still tricky how to deal with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, w.r.t sports.

Yup, it's true. heard this in a couple of podcasts from one reputed sports journalist, he happens to be very resourceful when following BCCI's money trail on everything like IPL, media rights deals etc.

Also, a few officials and Cricketers also said this on record a couple of times. IMO it's not generosity but they just don't care as it's not a big money and in return they earn some brownie points. 

@JSRAW yet I find it hard to believe that BCCI actually gives up this money, because from what I studied about them is that they actually try to earn as much money as possible. @Sithara007 while Pakistan would be the obvious favourites in these series, yet I feel that Afghanistan can stun them and defeat them as they have improved a lot hence wagering small bets on Afghanistan victory does makes sense to me what do you think?

[WatChe]

A slight correction is needed in the Article.

On paper, BCCI does receive some percentage of the share but in reality, BCCI voluntarily gives up its share of revenue and never takes its share from the ACC fund.

If that's correct then it's nice gesture from BCCI since there are boards that have so much potential for cricket but need financial assistance like Nepal. I was stunned to see presence of croward in last ODI played in Nepal between UAE and Nepal. Afghanistan is latest entry in international cricket from this region. Its time now to bring Nepal in international cricket.

[mm2543363580]

A slight correction is needed in the Article.

On paper, BCCI does receive some percentage of the share but in reality, BCCI voluntarily gives up its share of revenue and never takes its share from the ACC fund.

LOL.. Is this true? Very difficult to believe that BCCI has become so generous towards the other boards. In case of Afghanistan, despite becoming a full member in 2017, they always received lower amount of funding compared to the other full members (during Asia Cups of 2018 and 2022). BTW, after Australia pulled out of the series against Afghanistan, the Afghanistan Cricket Board (ACB) organized a bilateral tour with Pakistan (to start by last week of March). It is still tricky how to deal with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, w.r.t sports.

Yup, it's true. heard this in a couple of podcasts from one reputed sports journalist, he happens to be very resourceful when following BCCI's money trail on everything like IPL, media rights deals etc.

Also, a few officials and Cricketers also said this on record a couple of times. IMO it's not generosity but they just don't care as it's not a big money and in return they earn some brownie points. 

@JSRAW yet I find it hard to believe that BCCI actually gives up this money, because from what I studied about them is that they actually try to earn as much money as possible. @Sithara007 while Pakistan would be the obvious favourites in these series, yet I feel that Afghanistan can stun them and defeat them as they have improved a lot hence wagering small bets on Afghanistan victory does makes sense to me what do you think?

There is going to be tough matches in upcoming series between Pakistan and Afghanistan as both of them are good teams . Specially Afghanistan they play so fearlessly and aggressively and make their game so interesting for their fans .
Pakistan on other hand is experimenting a totally new team under captaincy of shadab Khan , young boys of psl have been given a chance to prove themselves and make their way in Pakistani team in Asia Cup and world cup.

[justdimin]

heard this in a couple of podcasts from one reputed sports journalist, he happens to be very resourceful when following BCCI's money trail on everything like IPL, media rights deals etc.

Also, a few officials and Cricketers also said this on record a couple of times. IMO it's not generosity but they just don't care as it's not a big money and in return they earn some brownie points. 

@JSRAW yet I find it hard to believe that BCCI actually gives up this money, because from what I studied about them is that they actually try to earn as much money as possible. @Sithara007 while Pakistan would be the obvious favourites in these series, yet I feel that Afghanistan can stun them and defeat them as they have improved a lot hence wagering small bets on Afghanistan victory does makes sense to me what do you think?

Even prediction has never been easy in any sports and if you are going to play T20i then surely it's more difficult while Pakistan facing some issues and now having withdraw their head coach Mohammad Yousuf due to personal issues; Pakistan also resting all their premier players like Babar Azam, Mohammad Rizwan, Haris Rauf, Fakhar Zaman and Shaheen Shah; I feel like Afghanistan can win this series.

Shadab Khan is the good all-rounder and having good experience as captain but things still looking not easy for him in this series because most of the players are going to have started their career from this series after doing good in PSL8 but things could be never easy for anyone to win in this series because rivalry is also on after Pakistan give them many shocking defeats while they were on verge of win.

[JSRAW]

Yup, it's true. heard this in a couple of podcasts from one reputed sports journalist, he happens to be very resourceful when following BCCI's money trail on everything like IPL, media rights deals etc.

Also, a few officials and Cricketers also said this on record a couple of times. IMO it's not generosity but they just don't care as it's not a big money and in return they earn some brownie points. 

@JSRAW yet I find it hard to believe that BCCI actually gives up this money, because from what I studied about them is that they actually try to earn as much money as possible.

Their share was around $5-7 Million in the last Asia cup so like I said it's just pocket change for them but i understand they have a bad reputation so there is nothing wrong with such assumptions. BCCI can only blame itself for a bad PR despite being a cash cow for literally every cricketing board and subsidizing the majority of cricket all around the world. Asia cup funding is just one example. Most of the boards want to earn money, similar to BCCI. Latter is just too good in this circus and works ruthlessly.

If that's correct then it's nice gesture from BCCI since there are boards that have so much potential for cricket but need financial assistance like Nepal. I was stunned to see presence of croward in last ODI played in Nepal between UAE and Nepal. Afghanistan is latest entry in international cricket from this region. Its time now to bring Nepal in international cricket.

Really feel for Nepali fans. ICC is not interested there at all but one would hope for at least some sort of support from the BCCI. For some weird reason and unfortunately, it's not even come into the discussion.

[Sithara007]

If that's correct then it's nice gesture from BCCI since there are boards that have so much potential for cricket but need financial assistance like Nepal. I was stunned to see presence of croward in last ODI played in Nepal between UAE and Nepal. Afghanistan is latest entry in international cricket from this region. Its time now to bring Nepal in international cricket.

Nepal has suffered as a result of poor relations between the ICC and the Cricket Association of Nepal (CAN). Their funding has been reduced by almost 90% from the pre-2015 levels, as the ICC has increased funding for teams such as United Arab Emirates and the United States of America, which are considered as "premium" markets. Nepal is a third world country, and the ICC believes that they money given to them will not make good returns. That said, all the millions poured in to the markets of USA and UAE has gone in to a black hole. Even now, I can't spot a single native player in these two teams and support levels for cricket remains low, outside the expat community.

[dezoel]

Nepal has suffered as a result of poor relations between the ICC and the Cricket Association of Nepal (CAN). Their funding has been reduced by almost 90% from the pre-2015 levels, as the ICC has increased funding for teams such as United Arab Emirates and the United States of America, which are considered as "premium" markets. Nepal is a third world country, and the ICC believes that they money given to them will not make good returns. That said, all the millions poured in to the markets of USA and UAE has gone in to a black hole. Even now, I can't spot a single native player in these two teams and support levels for cricket remains low, outside the expat community.

If we relay on ICC then surely we will face things like these because they are not interested to improve quality of cricket in those regions which are not profitable for them, and they are increasing funding in markets which are profitable for them here we need to be good role of ACC as well because they are only best organization, and they also need to work on this which will help them for having better quality teams in this region as we already have 5 test playing nations and few are already improving things for better cricket.

So, here they also need good support from ACC as we have in different regions many organizations domestically working on their local system which is help them for improving quality and have better things for the future it's not alone ICC or BCCI here we also need strong character ACC as well.

[Unknown Op]

Even prediction has never been easy in any sports and if you are going to play T20i then surely it's more difficult while Pakistan facing some issues and now having withdraw their head coach Mohammad Yousuf due to personal issues; Pakistan also resting all their premier players like Babar Azam, Mohammad Rizwan, Haris Rauf, Fakhar Zaman and Shaheen Shah; I feel like Afghanistan can win this series.

While it never easy to predict the outcome of a sporting event it is important to remember that anything can happen on the day. While Pakistan may be facing some issues and are resting some of their top players they still have a talented and experienced team capable of doing well in T20I matches.
Afghanistan on the other hand, have been improving rapidly in recent years and have some of the best players in their squad.They will also face some challenges including playing in unfamiliar conditions and adapting to the different styles of their opponents. We can be sure that both Pakistan and Afghanistan have talented players and they will be ready to give their all in this series. The best team of the day will come out on top and it can be either way. So let's wait and watch the game and hope for an interesting match.

[BobK71]

Even prediction has never been easy in any sports and if you are going to play T20i then surely it's more difficult while Pakistan facing some issues and now having withdraw their head coach Mohammad Yousuf due to personal issues; Pakistan also resting all their premier players like Babar Azam, Mohammad Rizwan, Haris Rauf, Fakhar Zaman and Shaheen Shah; I feel like Afghanistan can win this series.

While it never easy to predict the outcome of a sporting event it is important to remember that anything can happen on the day. While Pakistan may be facing some issues and are resting some of their top players they still have a talented and experienced team capable of doing well in T20I matches.
Afghanistan on the other hand, have been improving rapidly in recent years and have some of the best players in their squad.They will also face some challenges including playing in unfamiliar conditions and adapting to the different styles of their opponents. We can be sure that both Pakistan and Afghanistan have talented players and they will be ready to give their all in this series. The best team of the day will come out on top and it can be either way. So let's wait and watch the game and hope for an interesting match.

Afghanistan is quite a good team in T20 series. Their performance has impressed many in the cricket world but their main problem is lack of experience. Such a picture was revealed in the last Asia Cup. They might have gotten a better position if they had put that experience properly. The absence of Pakistan's senior player T20I series that will be positive for Afghanistan team which will be held tomorrow, Afghanistan will have a chance to win the series if they can implement their performance.

[rojan]

Even prediction has never been easy in any sports and if you are going to play T20i then surely it's more difficult while Pakistan facing some issues and now having withdraw their head coach Mohammad Yousuf due to personal issues; Pakistan also resting all their premier players like Babar Azam, Mohammad Rizwan, Haris Rauf, Fakhar Zaman and Shaheen Shah; I feel like Afghanistan can win this series.

While it never easy to predict the outcome of a sporting event it is important to remember that anything can happen on the day. While Pakistan may be facing some issues and are resting some of their top players they still have a talented and experienced team capable of doing well in T20I matches.
Afghanistan on the other hand, have been improving rapidly in recent years and have some of the best players in their squad.They will also face some challenges including playing in unfamiliar conditions and adapting to the different styles of their opponents. We can be sure that both Pakistan and Afghanistan have talented players and they will be ready to give their all in this series. The best team of the day will come out on top and it can be either way. So let's wait and watch the game and hope for an interesting match.

Afghanistan is quite a good team in T20 series. Their performance has impressed many in the cricket world but their main problem is lack of experience. Such a picture was revealed in the last Asia Cup. They might have gotten a better position if they had put that experience properly. The absence of Pakistan's senior player T20I series that will be positive for Afghanistan team which will be held tomorrow, Afghanistan will have a chance to win the series if they can implement their performance.

Yes I also think Afghanistan is a very strong team in T20 aspect. But due to some mistakes they perform very badly in certain matches. But tomorrow match between Pakistan and Afghanistan will be a great game.  All fans of Pakistan and Afghanistan are waiting to watch tomorrow's match.  Hopefully I will bet for Afghanistan in tomorrow's match and I will win the bet.