Will these be any good after the halving?
S9 will be the only miner that will be any good after halving if you are paying $.10/kWh or more for electricity.
This is most likely the correct answer.
to further explain it
todays network has :
400ph of older then the s-7
900 ph of s-f or avalon 6
500 ph of newer then the s-7 ie the s-9
when the ½ ing comes the older gear then the s-7 will be pretty dead.
so 200-400 ph of useless gear.
the s-7 will be hurting so 600-900 ph of okay gear
the s-9 will be king say 500ph right now.
I would guess 200 to 400 ph will drop off the network very quickly in July
I keep seeing this claim that 400PH is old gear. How is this determined? In an earlier post you pointed to the network size last September and noted it was 400PH (before S7 and Avalon 6).
Do you really think that every miner that was plugged in last September is still plugged in today, or more importantly, will still be plugged in on July 10th?
1. Miners brick, hashboards melt, chips die. Surely some % of that 400PH has already been replaced by S7s or Avalon 6s because it's dead.
2. Gear becomes unprofitable. Sure, it generally migrates to lower power areas, but what about heavy units like S2 and S4? Surely some % of that 400PH has already been replaced by S7s or Avalon 6s to chase profits and it simply couldn't migrate to a better (cheaper power) home. I would argue that plenty of S3s have even started to hit the garbage rather than migrate.
3. Miners ignore ROI logic every day. This thread is filled with people ignoring BTC ROI. Why shouldn't some also ignore fiat ROI? There are always people who will mine at a loss in the hopes of huge BTC price increases. Surely some % of that 400PH will stay on the network regardless of profitability.
We can see downward spikes in the network today. Surely some of that is a result of that 400PH gear coming offline as we speak. That hash power is still being replaced by S7s pumping into the market. Even today S7s are replacing older gear and the network flattens out, then grows.
I guess my point is that we don't know how much of that old gear is on the network, let alone what percentage will come off the network. What I can tell you with 100% confidence that it won't be 400PH, plenty of that was replaced months ago. I know because I lost a board on an S5. Right there the older gear has to be 400PH - 0.55TH.
Will these be any good after the halving?
Depends on what you're looking for. Will it be the best miner on the market? Sure. Will it return your initial BTC investment at $0.1/kwh? Not even close.