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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3012864 times)
Phoenix1969
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July 12, 2013, 11:24:50 PM
 #3481

bpduke knows what he's talking about, butthurt kncminer fanboys who blindly gave away their money beware.

I want to be clear that I WANT KNC to come to market.  The more manufacturers the merrier and the better for all of us.

Just when we dig into the nuts and bolts, there are some things that really bug me.
1) Chip design appears to be huge - my main concern.
2) Chip has never been shown (ok, it's in manuf, but they have to have prototypes by now - you don't order up 1 mil chips unless you have validated the hardware)
3) Chip details like number of SHA256 "cores" has never been released.

All we have are some demos with FGPA hardware, nothing here.


Until I see more, my money goes behind chips we have actually seen: Avalon and Bitfury.  BFL's business practices are so bad I'm marking them off my (personal) list.
28nm die with a 55mm wrapper is what we were told by Marcus Erlanderson himself at the openday event. I have no reason to doubt his 10+ years of experience in ASICs. You barking about chip dimensions is quite irrelevant as well. The only thing that matters is how they perform.

That's good news for me anyway, less in line before my next purchase. Smiley


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July 12, 2013, 11:42:33 PM
 #3482

XBOX-WII & PS3 CPU's are BGA soldered. Their DIE size are less than 15 & 17% of package size.
XBOX
http://pictures.xbox-scene.com/xbox360/cpu/CPU.jpg

That's a 30-35% die vs. package size right there (the RAISED board is the "package" - the rectangle on it is the DIE).
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July 12, 2013, 11:45:38 PM
 #3483

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty. 

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
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July 13, 2013, 12:11:25 AM
 #3484



Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

that is really a scary point

if for some reason the shipping will be delayed (x example 1 month) how deep could be the impact?



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July 13, 2013, 12:16:27 AM
 #3485

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.
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July 13, 2013, 12:19:09 AM
 #3486

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.


Care to put your money where your mouth is?  I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.

Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.
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July 13, 2013, 12:48:31 AM
 #3487

Hmm.... let's see if kncminer has said anything lately.... nope, just people with too much time on their hands arguing about off topic shit.

+1
You are mentally challenged
they JUST released an update yesterday
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-23


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July 13, 2013, 12:52:45 AM
 #3488

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.


Care to put your money where your mouth is?  I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.

Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.

I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.
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July 13, 2013, 01:06:04 AM
 #3489

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.


Care to put your money where your mouth is?  I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.

Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.

I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.

Yeah, thought so.  All talk, no game.
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July 13, 2013, 02:01:50 AM
 #3490

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.


Care to put your money where your mouth is?  I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.

Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.

I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.

I would not call this FUD - it's an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible. That doesn't make the devices unprofitable but it certainly is a possibility, depending upon the price of BTC and the competition, some of which we know and others we don't. If there are any significant delays then yes, I believe it will be a problem for us and for KnC. At this point, everyone who has something on order from KnC believes that won't be the case, but it's certainly a possibility.

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July 13, 2013, 02:14:37 AM
 #3491

I would not call this FUD - it'[150m diff ==> 1e+15 = 1PH hash] is an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible.
So it's not that bad, really, if KnC delivers.  2 1/2 Jupiters give 1e+12 = 1TH for 17.5K USD.  The nominal recovery rate against 1PH is 3.6 BTC per day.  

But, yeah, given that bitfury will bring on themselves, not counting their retail, around 200TH including AM and other's response to 100TH, and Avalon apparently has a ton-o-chips in Shenzen and the boards are ready when they ship, 1PH isn't exactly a fairy tale.  In fact, some would say 1PH in October is conservative.
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July 13, 2013, 02:47:48 AM
 #3492

I've been in, and written for, the chip industry a very long time.  I know exactly what I am talking about and the difference between "package" and "die".

You don't make a 3000mm2 package size for a TINY chip.  Even if the actual chip die size is 1/4 the package size, that is a gigantic CPU.  TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and UMC don't even let you make die sizes over 600mm2 without very good reasons and special provisions in your contracts.  Why?  because they cannot meet the yield goals they advertise at those sizes.


And you couldn't even google the correct die sizes for a P3 and P4, yet you stated them as "fact".   Roll Eyes
Yes, but this isn't one chip. It's a chip that is a collection of smaller sub-units, all hashing in parallel.

Whereas a CPU of that size might be ruined because it's a serial device, KNC is making a highly parallel device. They can maximize yield by making the sub-units pretty small, thus localizing any defects.

So, if you expect let's say a 70% defect rate, simply multiply the maximum "perfect" hash-rate of the chip by your expected defect rate to get your average hash-rate per total package.

In this case we expect 100 gh/s per chip. So if they're expecting 70% defect rate, the chips maximum theoretical hashing ability sans defects is more like ~142 gh/sec.

Seems pretty reasonable.


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July 13, 2013, 02:59:48 AM
 #3493

I would not call this FUD - it'[150m diff ==> 1e+15 = 1PH hash] is an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible.
So it's not that bad, really, if KnC delivers.  2 1/2 Jupiters give 1e+12 = 1TH for 17.5K USD.  The nominal recovery rate against 1PH is 3.6 BTC per day.  

But, yeah, given that bitfury will bring on themselves, not counting their retail, around 200TH including AM and other's response to 100TH, and Avalon apparently has a ton-o-chips in Shenzen and the boards are ready when they ship, 1PH isn't exactly a fairy tale.  In fact, some would say 1PH in October is conservative.

so everyone will be mining for a loss right??  is that how the FUD goes?

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July 13, 2013, 03:10:06 AM
 #3494

so everyone will be mining for a loss right??  is that how the FUD goes?
Assuming I did my math right, and on a Friday night that might be a big assumption, 17,500 USD costs around 175 BTC now, to return at a rate of 3.6 BTC per day or better - again, under my assumptions.  That doesn't seem like a loss, particularly if they will host those Jupiters for a month for around 2 or 3 days recovery.

Are you seeing it differently?
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July 13, 2013, 03:15:16 AM
 #3495

so everyone will be mining for a loss right??  is that how the FUD goes?
Assuming I did my math right, and on a Friday night that might be a big assumption, 17,500 USD costs around 175 BTC now, to return at a rate of 3.6 BTC per day or better - again, under my assumptions.  That doesn't seem like a loss, particularly if they will host those Jupiters for a month for around 2 or 3 days recovery.

Are you seeing it differently?

I think people get greedy and want to scare others away...  i don't mind running these for a year at least, i mean you don't even have to do anything, just leave it running.  

some people wont be happy unless they are making $40k a week or whatever they are dreaming about

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July 13, 2013, 03:27:14 AM
 #3496

I think people get greedy and want to scare others away...  
Yep, and forecasting network rates and recovery rates has a whole lot in common with Zeno's Achilles Paradox.  Those pesky assumptions and comparative statics.

Ah, well, it's the weekend, and even the network knows it: it's down to 177, off a high of 280.  Miller time.

[EDIT]:  One other point, RE: FUD.  The person being accused of that, IMO, simply holds the professional opinion that OrSoC, in pushing the limits of foundaries' process efficacy, has made a fundamental, maybe fatal, strategic design mistake. 

That's not "the sky is falling" FUD bullshit.  Maybe he'll be right, or maybe he'll be wrong.  Anybody who's smart and has a dog in the ring will read that, and toss it into their own decision mix.  Those who don't even want to hear of  the possibility will shoot the messenger and call it FUD.   
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July 13, 2013, 03:28:07 AM
 #3497

at 150million diff. my mercury will still make me 30 bucks a day. thats pretty damn good to me.
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July 13, 2013, 06:14:11 AM
 #3498

Curious why some postings are called a FUD for a reason
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July 13, 2013, 07:06:24 AM
 #3499

at 150million diff. my mercury will still make me 30 bucks a day. thats pretty damn good to me.
It could also make zero or several hundred dollars per day, you don't know what the price of BTC will be when you get the mercury, so the 150mill diff is not the determining factor.


If most of the Avalon, ASICminer, and BFL rigs stop being profitable and give up, then guess who will get more of the BTC? The KNCminer owners, until something more efficient comes along.

The mindless people spreading the FUD, are trying to drag down one of the most efficient ASIC designs out their atm, assuming it lives up to it's claimed performance, and it's the efficient ones that are going to stay profitable longest,
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July 13, 2013, 07:45:59 AM
 #3500

I'm missing the point here.

If the problem is Knc not delivering, everyone should do his evaluation and decide to invest or not. It seems to me that a lot of people is faking huge skills and experience in chip design. But why the hell they are all day on the forum instead of producing their own ASIC?

If the problem is "ludicrous speed" increase within the end of the year, everyone is doomed - no matter which ASIC has been bought. Oh wait: everyone is doomed in a different way, and Knc right now still offers (one of) the best ratios between price and hash power.

Play your game, otherwise you can always go buy AAPL actions, they are cheap now!

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