Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[bkpduke]

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.

Care to put your money where your mouth is?  I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.

Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.

[Phoenix1969]

Hmm.... let's see if kncminer has said anything lately.... nope, just people with too much time on their hands arguing about off topic shit.

+1

You are mentally challenged
they JUST released an update yesterday
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-23

[erk]

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.

Care to put your money where your mouth is?  I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.

Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.

I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.

[bkpduke]

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.

Care to put your money where your mouth is?  I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.

Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.

I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.

Yeah, thought so.  All talk, no game.

[canth]

Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.  

Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range.  ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.

BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.

Care to put your money where your mouth is?  I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.

Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.

I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.

I would not call this FUD - it's an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible. That doesn't make the devices unprofitable but it certainly is a possibility, depending upon the price of BTC and the competition, some of which we know and others we don't. If there are any significant delays then yes, I believe it will be a problem for us and for KnC. At this point, everyone who has something on order from KnC believes that won't be the case, but it's certainly a possibility.

[Loredo]

I would not call this FUD - it'[150m diff ==> 1e+15 = 1PH hash] is an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible.

So it's not that bad, really, if KnC delivers.  2 1/2 Jupiters give 1e+12 = 1TH for 17.5K USD.  The nominal recovery rate against 1PH is 3.6 BTC per day.  

But, yeah, given that bitfury will bring on themselves, not counting their retail, around 200TH including AM and other's response to 100TH, and Avalon apparently has a ton-o-chips in Shenzen and the boards are ready when they ship, 1PH isn't exactly a fairy tale.  In fact, some would say 1PH in October is conservative.

[Anenome5]

I've been in, and written for, the chip industry a very long time.  I know exactly what I am talking about and the difference between "package" and "die".

You don't make a 3000mm2 package size for a TINY chip.  Even if the actual chip die size is 1/4 the package size, that is a gigantic CPU.  TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and UMC don't even let you make die sizes over 600mm2 without very good reasons and special provisions in your contracts.  Why?  because they cannot meet the yield goals they advertise at those sizes.


And you couldn't even google the correct die sizes for a P3 and P4, yet you stated them as "fact".   

Yes, but this isn't one chip. It's a chip that is a collection of smaller sub-units, all hashing in parallel.

Whereas a CPU of that size might be ruined because it's a serial device, KNC is making a highly parallel device. They can maximize yield by making the sub-units pretty small, thus localizing any defects.

So, if you expect let's say a 70% defect rate, simply multiply the maximum "perfect" hash-rate of the chip by your expected defect rate to get your average hash-rate per total package.

In this case we expect 100 gh/s per chip. So if they're expecting 70% defect rate, the chips maximum theoretical hashing ability sans defects is more like ~142 gh/sec.

Seems pretty reasonable.

[DPoS]

I would not call this FUD - it'[150m diff ==> 1e+15 = 1PH hash] is an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible.

So it's not that bad, really, if KnC delivers.  2 1/2 Jupiters give 1e+12 = 1TH for 17.5K USD.  The nominal recovery rate against 1PH is 3.6 BTC per day.  

But, yeah, given that bitfury will bring on themselves, not counting their retail, around 200TH including AM and other's response to 100TH, and Avalon apparently has a ton-o-chips in Shenzen and the boards are ready when they ship, 1PH isn't exactly a fairy tale.  In fact, some would say 1PH in October is conservative.

so everyone will be mining for a loss right??  is that how the FUD goes?

[Loredo]

so everyone will be mining for a loss right??  is that how the FUD goes?

Assuming I did my math right, and on a Friday night that might be a big assumption, 17,500 USD costs around 175 BTC now, to return at a rate of 3.6 BTC per day or better - again, under my assumptions.  That doesn't seem like a loss, particularly if they will host those Jupiters for a month for around 2 or 3 days recovery.

Are you seeing it differently?

[DPoS]

so everyone will be mining for a loss right??  is that how the FUD goes?

Assuming I did my math right, and on a Friday night that might be a big assumption, 17,500 USD costs around 175 BTC now, to return at a rate of 3.6 BTC per day or better - again, under my assumptions.  That doesn't seem like a loss, particularly if they will host those Jupiters for a month for around 2 or 3 days recovery.

Are you seeing it differently?

I think people get greedy and want to scare others away...  i don't mind running these for a year at least, i mean you don't even have to do anything, just leave it running.  

some people wont be happy unless they are making $40k a week or whatever they are dreaming about

[Loredo]

I think people get greedy and want to scare others away...  

Yep, and forecasting network rates and recovery rates has a whole lot in common with Zeno's Achilles Paradox.  Those pesky assumptions and comparative statics.

Ah, well, it's the weekend, and even the network knows it: it's down to 177, off a high of 280.  Miller time.

[EDIT]:  One other point, RE: FUD.  The person being accused of that, IMO, simply holds the professional opinion that OrSoC, in pushing the limits of foundaries' process efficacy, has made a fundamental, maybe fatal, strategic design mistake. 

That's not "the sky is falling" FUD bullshit.  Maybe he'll be right, or maybe he'll be wrong.  Anybody who's smart and has a dog in the ring will read that, and toss it into their own decision mix.  Those who don't even want to hear of  the possibility will shoot the messenger and call it FUD.   

[ASIC-K]

at 150million diff. my mercury will still make me 30 bucks a day. thats pretty damn good to me.

[dan99]

Curious why some postings are called a FUD for a reason

[erk]

at 150million diff. my mercury will still make me 30 bucks a day. thats pretty damn good to me.

It could also make zero or several hundred dollars per day, you don't know what the price of BTC will be when you get the mercury, so the 150mill diff is not the determining factor.


If most of the Avalon, ASICminer, and BFL rigs stop being profitable and give up, then guess who will get more of the BTC? The KNCminer owners, until something more efficient comes along.

The mindless people spreading the FUD, are trying to drag down one of the most efficient ASIC designs out their atm, assuming it lives up to it's claimed performance, and it's the efficient ones that are going to stay profitable longest,

[jimmy3dita]

I'm missing the point here.

If the problem is Knc not delivering, everyone should do his evaluation and decide to invest or not. It seems to me that a lot of people is faking huge skills and experience in chip design. But why the hell they are all day on the forum instead of producing their own ASIC?

If the problem is "ludicrous speed" increase within the end of the year, everyone is doomed - no matter which ASIC has been bought. Oh wait: everyone is doomed in a different way, and Knc right now still offers (one of) the best ratios between price and hash power.

Play your game, otherwise you can always go buy AAPL actions, they are cheap now!

[klee]

at 150million diff. my mercury will still make me 30 bucks a day. thats pretty damn good to me.

It could also make zero or several hundred dollars per day, you don't know what the price of BTC will be when you get the mercury, so the 150mill diff is not the determining factor.


If most of the Avalon, ASICminer, and BFL rigs stop being profitable and give up, then guess who will get more of the BTC? The KNCminer owners, until something more efficient comes along.

Fair point @ 1st paragraph.
As for the 2nd, people mining with Avalon, ASICminer, Bitfury earlier than KnC will have the funds to move to the next gen chips which will make KnC's obsolete. Small window here if they won't deliver on time...

[Mota]

at 150million diff. my mercury will still make me 30 bucks a day. thats pretty damn good to me.

It could also make zero or several hundred dollars per day, you don't know what the price of BTC will be when you get the mercury, so the 150mill diff is not the determining factor.


If most of the Avalon, ASICminer, and BFL rigs stop being profitable and give up, then guess who will get more of the BTC? The KNCminer owners, until something more efficient comes along.

Fair point @ 1st paragraph.
As for the 2nd, people mining with Avalon, ASICminer, Bitfury earlier than KnC will have the funds to move to the next gen chips which will make KnC's obsolete. Small window here if they won't deliver on time...

gee, pray tell me, what exactly will be the next gen chip? AFAIK KNC's Chip is practically top notch, only optimising it would yield better hashrates...

[klee]

The mindless people spreading the FUD, are trying to drag down one of the most efficient ASIC designs out their atm, assuming it lives up to it's claimed performance, and it's the efficient ones that are going to stay profitable longest,

Design<>product

[erk]

gee, pray tell me, what exactly will be the next gen chip? AFAIK KNC's Chip is practically top notch, only optimising it would yield better hashrates...

Obviously something not based on standard cell design, eg. a 28nm version of Bitfury's design.

[klee]

at 150million diff. my mercury will still make me 30 bucks a day. thats pretty damn good to me.

It could also make zero or several hundred dollars per day, you don't know what the price of BTC will be when you get the mercury, so the 150mill diff is not the determining factor.


If most of the Avalon, ASICminer, and BFL rigs stop being profitable and give up, then guess who will get more of the BTC? The KNCminer owners, until something more efficient comes along.

Fair point @ 1st paragraph.
As for the 2nd, people mining with Avalon, ASICminer, Bitfury earlier than KnC will have the funds to move to the next gen chips which will make KnC's obsolete. Small window here if they won't deliver on time...

gee, pray tell me, what exactly will be the next gen chip? AFAIK KNC's Chip is practically top notch, only optimising it would yield better hashrates...

3d transistors, energy efficiency, memristors, graphene whatever...
Do you think chip evolution will stop with some Orsoc innovating? That would be bad!