Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

Perhaps I am missing a variable

this guy is a gold mine today

[1713448247]

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[xhomerx10]

Perhaps I am missing a variable

this guy is a gold mine today

 more like a landmine.  Watch your step!

[Paashaas]

Just realized that Bitcoin's hash rate is up +100% since January 2018 and around +25% since May as well as +15% from two weeks ago.

[Paashaas]

Who here is NOT going to sell me their Lambo if I pay in BTC that has either some segwit taint, or that actually comes from a native segwit address? I didn't find anyone who wouldn't accept my coins.

That would be that Bcash idiot Jbreher 

[TERA2]

Just realized that Bitcoin's hash rate is up +100% since January 2018 and around +25% since May as well as +15% from two weeks ago.

That's a nice hashrate miners. Those are some nice ASICs.

It would be shame if someone...

changed...

the algorithm.

[infofront]

Just realized that Bitcoin's hash rate is up +100% since January 2018 and around +25% since May as well as +15% from two weeks ago.

That's a nice hashrate miners. Those are some nice ASICs.

It would be shame if someone...

changed...

the algorithm.

[JayJuanGee]

Just realized that Bitcoin's hash rate is up +100% since January 2018 and around +25% since May as well as +15% from two weeks ago.

That's a nice hashrate miners. Those are some nice ASICs.

It would be shame if someone...

changed...

the algorithm.

It's not going to happen, so I don't know what your point is except to bring up something that is not going to happen?

[Searing]

Just realized that Bitcoin's hash rate is up +100% since January 2018 and around +25% since May as well as +15% from two weeks ago.

That's a nice hashrate miners. Those are some nice ASICs.

It would be shame if someone...

changed...

the algorithm.

It's not going to happen, so I don't know what your point is except to bring up something that is not going to happen?

not to be an ass...but actual question...I read someplace a month ago, actually the claim that miners need about $6,600 usd to make profit mining ..this

was for the majority of big BTC miner halls...IF, the price dumps (see LTC) and there is an overabundance of ASIC miners (see LTC) is it not possible that

it could get so bad or centralized (see LTC Bitmain) that perhaps this could be the case? I used LTC as an example ..which is not exactly fair, in that they have

many pow-scrypt coins effected in this manner, not just Bitcoin forks....but there has to reach a point in price vs mining...where it could be you just could NOT

mine coin at a price without having to change algo?

anyway, probably not explained right, but you get the direction...what would it take to change algo on BTC? (if any)

[JayJuanGee]

Just realized that Bitcoin's hash rate is up +100% since January 2018 and around +25% since May as well as +15% from two weeks ago.

That's a nice hashrate miners. Those are some nice ASICs.

It would be shame if someone...

changed...

the algorithm.

It's not going to happen, so I don't know what your point is except to bring up something that is not going to happen?

not to be an ass...but actual question...I read someplace a month ago, actually the claim that miners need about $6,600 usd to make profit mining ..this

was for the majority of big BTC miner halls...IF, the price dumps (see LTC) and there is an overabundance of ASIC miners (see LTC) is it not possible that

it could get so bad or centralized (see LTC Bitmain) that perhaps this could be the case? I used LTC as an example ..which is not exactly fair, in that they have

many pow-scrypt coins effected in this manner, not just Bitcoin forks....but there has to reach a point in price vs mining...where it could be you just could NOT

mine coin at a price without having to change algo?

anyway, probably not explained right, but you get the direction...what would it take to change algo on BTC? (if any)

You are a miner, so you probably know more of the technicals of mining than me.  And, there are likely a lot of people that look at the mining issue from a different perspective than me, but I am largely thinking in terms of security.. and the fact that changing the algorithm would introduce a whole hell of a lot of unknown risk to bitcoin, including qustions about its centralization (if the algorithm was quickly changed)

In essence, my understanding is that it would not be very difficult technically to change bitcoin's mining algorithm, but the question is not so much about what is technically feasible, but instead looking at game theory and broader scale economics and incentives that are created and which players would be advantaged by an algorithm change.

I don't think that the individual profitability of mining (as the way that you outlined the possible motivation for changing the algorithm) is a significant reason to change the algorithm, because in essence, if mining becomes less profitable because of the number of big players mining, then the free market would likely take care of that by causing the less profitable players to drop off... and sure more centralization, but still not a motive to change the algorithm in order to spread out mining to smaller players.

A bit over a year ago, LukeDashJr and perhaps some of the other developers were proposing an algorithm change as a means to undermine the seeming monopoly of bitmain and some of their seeming bullying behavior and in order to punish them.   It seems that a motive to change the algorithm in order to hurt Bitmain  would not necessarily cause that kind of speculated damage to bitmain, but instead would likely hurt the smaller players more and would likely hurt any of the upcoming miner developers who are trying to put a dent into bitmain's efficiency.  In other words, bitmain would likely be way to likely to be advantaged by an algorithm change because it would be the kind of player that could most easily establish new machines to adapt to such new algorithm and to phase out their no longer useful (and old machines), and therefore if there was an aim to punish bitmain through a new algorithm, the opposite effect would be the more likely outcome which means that it is not too likely that a change in the algorithm would cause greater decentralization (if that was the intention).

Bitcoin ultimately remains stronger, more secure, by sticking with the original algorithm that a lot more players can develop upon (including bitmain, and bitmain does not have as BIG of a monopoly as is asserted).

Regarding cost of mining, I have seen a pretty wide spectrum of costs between $3k and $7k, and perhaps that largely varies based on electricity costs and the efficiencies of the equipment being used and perhaps some software technics that can cause for some private employment of greater efficiencies that miners would keep secret some of their efficiency techniques and other costs (to the extent that they are able to keep those private).

[jojo69]

Miners don't need anything like $6000/BTC to remain profitable.

I'd put it closer to $2000, even lower if you take the money laundering angle into account.

[JayJuanGee]

Miners don't need anything like $6000/BTC to remain profitable.

I'd put it closer to $2000, even lower if you take the money laundering angle into account.

You could be right that the costs per coin  are lower than the estimated range that I indicated.  There are threads on the cost of mining topic, and various discussion points.  

I am certainly in agreement with you that there could be various ways that once miners are able to generate coins, there are likely other ways (besides pure mining) that they could either drive down the costs per coin or alternatively to generate profits from such coins.

[mindrust]

Are you saying that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and much of 2016, you were not stacking bitcoin?  Even if you had stacked a small amount of perhaps $100 per month ($25-ish per week), you could have stacked a decently sized BTC holdings by the end of 2016, no?

I had 2-3 coins in 2013. (or 2014, I know I had them before the crash) I managed to cash out just from the top price $1000. I bought myself an ipad and a nice vacation. Then I told myself how clever I was for dumping that shit at the top. LoL suckers right?

Now I am buying back those coins from $6k+, I even bought some at $15k few months ago. That's how I sold low and bought *high.

*only for now. This time I know what's going on.
** I also didn't dump shit at $20k, only buying more.

[HairyMaclairy]

 If the Bitmain IPO goes ahead, we know their monopoly has been broken.

[Robin,Hood]

Just realized that Bitcoin's hash rate is up +100% since January 2018 and around +25% since May as well as +15% from two weeks ago.

In relation  % grow to other coins.

[JayJuanGee]

Are you saying that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and much of 2016, you were not stacking bitcoin?  Even if you had stacked a small amount of perhaps $100 per month ($25-ish per week), you could have stacked a decently sized BTC holdings by the end of 2016, no?

I had 2-3 coins in 2013. (or 2014, I know I had them before the crash) I managed to cash out just from the top price $1000. I bought myself an ipad and a nice vacation. Then I told myself how clever I was for dumping that shit at the top. LoL suckers right?

Now I am buying back those coins from $6k+, I even bought some at $15k few months ago. That's how I sold low and bought *high.

*only for now. This time I know what's going on.
** I also didn't dump shit at $20k, only buying more.

O.k., so pretty much you are saying that you made some profits in 2013/2014, when you sold because you were able to buy those nice things with the profits.  However, perhaps 1) you ended up spending both principle and profits on your nice things, 2) you did not recognize the investment value of bitcoin until much later, so you did not buy many bitcoins between 2014 and 2015, 3) you said that you bought some bitcoin in late 2016, but that was not enough (or was not very many bitcoins), 4) you seemed to recognize the value of bitcoin late - in 2017 and perhaps even in late 2017.   

These are really tough circumstances, and still I gather that it is very unlikely that you really did learn your lesson and really do recognize the value of bitcoin. Hopefully, you can just engage in a kind reasoned approach, and just buy back with reasonable amounts of ongoing dollar cost averaging rather than attempting to bet on either the direction of the market or engage in a kind of gambling.

It seems that even if you have screwed some things up in your recent bitcoin perspective history, I think that if you continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin and attempt to learn from your mistakes and attempt to employ incrementalism strategies, you could be doing very well, financially, in 5-10 years.  Personally, I don't think that you should attempt to rush the matter, because you will have a greater likelihood to take rash actions, like you already have done in the past.  Anyhow, hopefully, it all works out and you can attempt to play the long game, and please keep in mind that sometimes I may seem to be harsh on people or lecture people for gambling too much, but it is mostly because I don't think that gambling is a very good way to approach the matter, and if you do not rush the situation, there are still decent chances that you can build up your BTC portfolio and  things are going to work out for you.  If you end up gambling and playing around too much with alts and things like that then the odds of your personally profiting are not likely to be as good.

[mindrust]

Are you saying that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and much of 2016, you were not stacking bitcoin?  Even if you had stacked a small amount of perhaps $100 per month ($25-ish per week), you could have stacked a decently sized BTC holdings by the end of 2016, no?

I had 2-3 coins in 2013. (or 2014, I know I had them before the crash) I managed to cash out just from the top price $1000. I bought myself an ipad and a nice vacation. Then I told myself how clever I was for dumping that shit at the top. LoL suckers right?

Now I am buying back those coins from $6k+, I even bought some at $15k few months ago. That's how I sold low and bought *high.

*only for now. This time I know what's going on.
** I also didn't dump shit at $20k, only buying more.

O.k., so pretty much you are saying that you made some profits in 2013/2014, when you sold because you were able to buy those nice things with the profits.  However, perhaps 1) you ended up spending both principle and profits on your nice things, 2) you did not recognize the investment value of bitcoin until much later, so you did not buy many bitcoins between 2014 and 2015, 3) you said that you bought some bitcoin in late 2016, but that was not enough (or was not very many bitcoins), 4) you seemed to recognize the value of bitcoin late - in 2017 and perhaps even in late 2017.  

These are really tough circumstances, and still I gather that it is very unlikely that you really did learn your lesson and really do recognize the value of bitcoin. Hopefully, you can just engage in a kind reasoned approach, and just buy back with reasonable amounts of ongoing dollar cost averaging rather than attempting to bet on either the direction of the market or engage in a kind of gambling.

It seems that even if you have screwed some things up in your recent bitcoin perspective history, I think that if you continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin and attempt to learn from your mistakes and attempt to employ incrementalism strategies, you could be doing very well, financially, in 5-10 years.  Personally, I don't think that you should attempt to rush the matter, because you will have a greater likelihood to take rash actions, like you already have done in the past.  Anyhow, hopefully, it all works out and you can attempt to play the long game, and please keep in mind that sometimes I may seem to be harsh on people or lecture people for gambling too much, but it is mostly because I don't think that gambling is a very good way to approach the matter, and if you do not rush the situation, there are still decent chances that you can build up your BTC portfolio and  things are going to work out for you.  If you end up gambling and playing around too much with alts and things like that then the odds of your personally profiting are not likely to be as good.

The difference between late 2016-late 2017 and early 2018 is that I used to dollar cost averaging with my %5-10 income, now I am dollar cost averaging with its %80-90.

Turkish Lira already became worthless against the USD anyway, since it is about to become the next Bolivar, I almost have nothing to lose at this point so I am going all in with btc. I am still afraid to move my FIAT (USD) stash into btc which I gathered in years. I'll be buying btc only with the new money and wait for a 2015 like opportunity. If that opportunity never comes back, then I'll be Dollar Costing my income with btc.

My altcoin exposure is around %3. I am not much into alts.

[JayJuanGee]

Are you saying that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and much of 2016, you were not stacking bitcoin?  Even if you had stacked a small amount of perhaps $100 per month ($25-ish per week), you could have stacked a decently sized BTC holdings by the end of 2016, no?

I had 2-3 coins in 2013. (or 2014, I know I had them before the crash) I managed to cash out just from the top price $1000. I bought myself an ipad and a nice vacation. Then I told myself how clever I was for dumping that shit at the top. LoL suckers right?

Now I am buying back those coins from $6k+, I even bought some at $15k few months ago. That's how I sold low and bought *high.

*only for now. This time I know what's going on.
** I also didn't dump shit at $20k, only buying more.

O.k., so pretty much you are saying that you made some profits in 2013/2014, when you sold because you were able to buy those nice things with the profits.  However, perhaps 1) you ended up spending both principle and profits on your nice things, 2) you did not recognize the investment value of bitcoin until much later, so you did not buy many bitcoins between 2014 and 2015, 3) you said that you bought some bitcoin in late 2016, but that was not enough (or was not very many bitcoins), 4) you seemed to recognize the value of bitcoin late - in 2017 and perhaps even in late 2017.  

These are really tough circumstances, and still I gather that it is very unlikely that you really did learn your lesson and really do recognize the value of bitcoin. Hopefully, you can just engage in a kind reasoned approach, and just buy back with reasonable amounts of ongoing dollar cost averaging rather than attempting to bet on either the direction of the market or engage in a kind of gambling.

It seems that even if you have screwed some things up in your recent bitcoin perspective history, I think that if you continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin and attempt to learn from your mistakes and attempt to employ incrementalism strategies, you could be doing very well, financially, in 5-10 years.  Personally, I don't think that you should attempt to rush the matter, because you will have a greater likelihood to take rash actions, like you already have done in the past.  Anyhow, hopefully, it all works out and you can attempt to play the long game, and please keep in mind that sometimes I may seem to be harsh on people or lecture people for gambling too much, but it is mostly because I don't think that gambling is a very good way to approach the matter, and if you do not rush the situation, there are still decent chances that you can build up your BTC portfolio and  things are going to work out for you.  If you end up gambling and playing around too much with alts and things like that then the odds of your personally profiting are not likely to be as good.

The difference between late 2016-late 2017 and early 2018 is that I used to dollar cost averaging with my %5-10 income, now I am dollar cost averaging with its %80-90.

Well, ultimately, you are going to do what you are going to do, and even though your amounts seem a bit high to me, there may be some reasonable basis for the amounts that you have chosen to invest in bitcoin if your underlying fiat is not holding value.

It is considered that the dollar loses between 1% to 3% per year due to inflation of goods to buy and various depreciation mechanisms including the printing of money that depreciates the value of the dollars that you hold, yet it is still good to hold a certain amount of dollars to off-set a volatile risky investment, such as bitcoin.

Another concept that I like to keep in mind is having enough of a cash reserve in order that you do not have to dip into your bitcoin investment that a time that is not of your choosing... so what I do is project my cashflow ahead for up to 18 months.  The amount of time that I project ahead is going to vary based on various business activities of mine, including if I have debt money that I am floatin and considering the payments, too.

If you have a steady source of income (cash flow) then you can be kind of lucky to be able to project your cashflow, but if you have a business, then there may be a certain necessity to underestimate your cashflow, which will better prepare you for emergencies, and increase the chances that your cashflow is going to outperform expectations (and a decent portion of the "outperformance" can be used to invest in something like bitcoin).

Turkish Lira already became worthless against the USD anyway, since it is about to become the next Bolivar, I almost have nothing to lose at this point so I am going all in with btc. I am still afraid to move my FIAT (USD) stash into btc which I gathered in years. I'll be buying btc only with the new money and wait for a 2015 like opportunity. If that opportunity never comes back, then I'll be Dollar Costing my income with btc anyway.

My altcoin exposure is around %3. I am not much into alts.

My alt coin exposure is less than 2% of my total crypto investment, so we are in the same boat (similar mindset) there.

[BitExalt]

I' m Drunk and high....


BUY BUY BUY   

[Totscha]

I' m Drunk and high....


BUY BUY BUY   

Volume not impressive...

Buy MOAR! 

[mymenace]

waiting for