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Question: 9/19 Closing Price:
0 - 1 (1.6%)
<$10,000 - 3 (4.8%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 2 (3.2%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 13 (20.6%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 19 (30.2%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 8 (12.7%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 7 (11.1%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 2 (3.2%)
>$13,000 - 3 (4.8%)
>$20,000 - 5 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 63

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22592591 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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August 14, 2019, 07:27:37 PM

If bitcoin don't go $100k in a year or two... What can you possibly lose?

Well, that is part of what makes bitcoin to be amongst the best asymmetric bets that are currently in existence.

As long as you don't leverage, then the most that you could lose is 100% of your investment, while at the same time the odds for UP are quite good (and I would say that the odds of losing 100% of your investment is quite low).



From here, your worst scenario is $5k. At worst you'll lose half of your money. I know it is not pennies if you go all in.

I will agree that the odds of the price going below $5k are much lower than they were just a short period of time ago, but surely $5k is not the bottom of how low bitcoin is possible to go, so therefore, $5k is no where near the worst scenario for bitcoin.


That's why, you need to DCA. (spread your buys over months, weeks)

Surely, DCA is amongst the best of the possible strategies and also proven to be good with the passage of time; however, DCA is far from the only potentially profitable strategy.   DCA does end up being a decent strategy for people who might not have value, but they do have some kind of cashflow or an ability to generate a cashflow that they could use to get into bitcoin.  If someone has a lump sum that is already available, that person could reasonably could to invest lump sums and buying on dips and those kinds of different strategies, too.

Even if you still find that $100k a too crazy number...

$100k is not that crazy, especially given bitcoin's history and fundamentals.

Just tell me what are your other options for getting rich?

Bitcoin, perhaps?

Gold? Must be a joke.

Not a complete joke, but has way less upside potential than bitcoin... even in the best of scenarios.


FIAT? Dead.

Not dead, but seems like the irresponsible policies of various governments is not going to significantly or materially change in the coming years, so if you hold onto fiat in the longer term, then your money is likely going to lose value over time.  Some fiats are worse than others in terms of retaining value.

Stocks? Already in a bubble if you get in now, you won't be sleeping at nights.

I have some money in index funds.  Seems like a hedge to me.  They do not have any kind of certain trajectory, even though they do seem like a bubble, but who knows, may still serve as a bit of a hedge.


Real Estate? You need to be rich beforehand which is a dumb idea to begin with

There are a variety of ways to invest in real estate.  Even though it is not very liquid, it is a pretty solid investment, especially if monetary policies are sloppy, and sometimes you can find value.. as long as you don't mind being tied down a bit, perhaps.

Altcoins? Might be an option but I wouldn't advise that shit. Most of them are scam.

I don't advise them either, especially since they are an extra layer of risk beyond bitcoin because they are likely largely correlated with bitcoin, but some of them could pump with bitcoin or greater than bitcoin or at least greater than other investment options while being somewhat liquid like bitcoin (maybe not as liquid as bitcoin but some of them might be decently liquid).


Don't get me wrong, I use Bitcoin to store my wealth outside of the banks and It serves that purpose very well, I am just after that side benefit; "getting rich" while doing so.
 
If you don't  fully understand what bitcoin is and what it can do before investing in it, you won't be able to hodl through. As soon as you see a small red candle, your mind will give you a blue screen and you'll panic dump. That's the same mindset which kept me from investing in btc for years, I know.

I cannot disagree with any of these here points.
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Clueless!


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August 14, 2019, 07:28:58 PM

"Samsung has quietly added Bitcoin support to Blockchain Keystore, its decentralized app (DApp) store. Originally, its DApp store only supported the Ethereum blockchain."

https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/1161712624490467330

Three things I'm absolutely sure of:

1. My death
2. Bitcoin reaching $100k in the next five years.
3. -
How can you be absolutely sure?
I'm 80% sure, but anything could happen with Bitcoin, right?

I take it that you are referring to $100k in the next five years, and fuck that 80% is even a high expectation.

I might place mine at around 25% to 30% sure, and I would think that is even a fuckingly BIG ass expectation.. but I am just approximating, anyhow.


$2 trillion market cap is *extremely* possible for BTC in the next 5 years, IMO. Roll Eyes

Of course, it is "extremely" possible, but guys are going to come to differing numbers in terms of probabilities.  You gave your numbers as 100%, which seems a bit much to me, btcbeliever gave his numbers as 80%, which seems a bit much to me, and I gave my own numbers, which I believe reflects my current thinking on the matter., which I consider to be bullish as fuck, even if you conclude that my current numbers seem to be low from your perspective.

It's literally all about perspectives.

Imagine Andrew Yang gets the presidency, and starts (printing and) giving out $1000 a month to every 18+ US citizen out there. Easy $100k BTC within a year or two.

Well, if he reversed the tax cuts under Trump and the Corporations and did the above. It would likely be a 'wash' and maybe a net gain, in that those individual folk would

probably blow that money. If that is how the economy is gonna work from now on, printing money to give it to the very rich or the common folk, I'd give it to the common

folk to spend it vs the very rich. Not sure anything for fiscal policy makes any sense in either direction.

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August 14, 2019, 07:29:19 PM

So god damned close to 4 digits.  I don't see how 4 digits does not happen, even if just briefly.  Maybe I am more than 80% certain that 4 digits will be touched upon, but only because currently we are so god damned close.  The local low within the past two hours, is only $27 away from 4 digits.

I know I'm a retarded permabull but I'm somehow sure we won't dive into 4 digits today (and in the nearest future).  Shocked

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August 14, 2019, 07:35:46 PM
Merited by Raja_MBZ (1)

...

The point is, JJG, none of those have the potential to make a x10 jump in 2-3 years. Gold probably do but I don't think you'll be able to enjoy those profits when it does. Gold is a bit complicated.

When Gold becomes "the shit", you'll be trading your stash for clean water, bullets etc you got the picture.

You are definitely not dumping them for lambos. You'll be afraid to show your face in public in a time like that.
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August 14, 2019, 07:40:45 PM

"Samsung has quietly added Bitcoin support to Blockchain Keystore, its decentralized app (DApp) store. Originally, its DApp store only supported the Ethereum blockchain."

https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/1161712624490467330

Three things I'm absolutely sure of:

1. My death
2. Bitcoin reaching $100k in the next five years.
3. -
How can you be absolutely sure?
I'm 80% sure, but anything could happen with Bitcoin, right?

I take it that you are referring to $100k in the next five years, and fuck that 80% is even a high expectation.

I might place mine at around 25% to 30% sure, and I would think that is even a fuckingly BIG ass expectation.. but I am just approximating, anyhow.


$2 trillion market cap is *extremely* possible for BTC in the next 5 years, IMO. Roll Eyes

Of course, it is "extremely" possible, but guys are going to come to differing numbers in terms of probabilities.  You gave your numbers as 100%, which seems a bit much to me, btcbeliever gave his numbers as 80%, which seems a bit much to me, and I gave my own numbers, which I believe reflects my current thinking on the matter., which I consider to be bullish as fuck, even if you conclude that my current numbers seem to be low from your perspective.

It's literally all about perspectives.

Imagine Andrew Yang gets the presidency, and starts (printing and) giving out $1000 a month to every 18+ US citizen out there. Easy $100k BTC within a year or two.

I have logical troubles to attempt to tie any BTC price speculation that I make to single factor events like that, including improbable ones like the one you mention.

We should be attempting to factor in more likely scenarios, even though unlikely scenarios are likely to happen too, and also I doubt that bitcoin's short to medium price performance is very much tied to various political scenarios, but if certain surprise scenarios do come about then those kinds of factors would need to be considered along with any other countervailing events that have come about merely because of the happening of the earlier event and also the resistance of status quo institutions to change, even if there were to be some changes in leadership.
JayJuanGee
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August 14, 2019, 07:44:02 PM

So god damned close to 4 digits.  I don't see how 4 digits does not happen, even if just briefly.  Maybe I am more than 80% certain that 4 digits will be touched upon, but only because currently we are so god damned close.  The local low within the past two hours, is only $27 away from 4 digits.

I know I'm a retarded permabull but I'm somehow sure we won't dive into 4 digits today (and in the nearest future).  Shocked

hahahahahaha

I love your "retarded" optimism, even though the odds do seem to be quite a bit against you, at the moment.

I am surely not going to complain or lose faith in the world of math if you happen to end up being correct.   Wink Wink
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August 14, 2019, 07:54:40 PM

...

The point is, JJG, none of those have the potential to make a x10 jump in 2-3 years.

Fair enough point, but I still would be hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket, no matter what my age.  Of course, if you are real young and barely just living on your own (moving out of the parent house or even living with parents and in the early stages of building your wealth), then in those cases, you usually do start with just investing in one thing while you are building your portfolio, and then you might start to expand out with the passage of time.  If you only have one investment because you are just starting to invest, then probably in those kinds of circumstances, you might start out with bitcoin... perhaps?  Those are somewhat individually tailored decisions concerning how diversified any person needs to be in terms of cash flow and projected expenses, too.



Gold probably do but I don't think you'll be able to enjoy those profits when it does. Gold is a bit complicated.

When Gold becomes "the shit", you'll be trading your stash for clean water, bullets etc you got the picture.

You are definitely not dumping them for lambos. You'll be afraid to show your face in public in a time like that.

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, and yeah, I agree that we should not be making the bulk of our investment decisions and/or allocations based on such unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there, such as roach and like-thinking acolytes of similar dumbass mindsets)
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August 14, 2019, 08:04:11 PM

the DOW went down 800 points  Shocked

We are suddenly correlating, which is a bummer, but could be attributed to Coinbase/Barclays conundrum.


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August 14, 2019, 08:04:48 PM

JayJuanGee, I need to deploy you to Saudi Arabia to find and capture Jewfrey Epstein.
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August 14, 2019, 08:58:18 PM

the DOW went down 800 points  Shocked

We are suddenly correlating, which is a bummer, but could be attributed to Coinbase/Barclays conundrum.




It’s just the late summer shakes. Not related to news.
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August 14, 2019, 09:00:18 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia
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August 14, 2019, 09:06:29 PM
Last edit: August 14, 2019, 09:30:29 PM by HairyMaclairy

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

The universe has been expanding for some time now.  Based on the historic trend line, it is likely to keep expanding.  It might even accelerate.

You may be waiting a wee while longer for universal Armageddon. 
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August 14, 2019, 09:23:58 PM

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161686134314848256

"JUST IN

as per sir
@loomdart
 ‘s request, this thread is abt the on-going sells off made by PLUS Token, the biggest Chinese PONZI which scammed ~70K $BTC + ~ 800K $ETH

I mentioned it briefly in my last Coindesk oped but worth additional attention as it may cause further sells"

via Imgflip Meme Generator


https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161703117835997185

"GUYS, this is really fucking nuts.

And YES they are moving their funds into small batches into exchanges, like 50-100BTC per batch

I highly recommend
@peckshield
 and
@chainalysis
 
@jony_levin
 take a deeper look and try to see whether they are moving more funds into exchanges"

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161703702270365696

"I couldn’t find the chat but starting a few days ago, Chinese traders are saying someone has been dumping 100BTC non-stop on Binance, will post here once I find the chat detail.

Which i suspected related to PlusToken as well"



Ponzi Boyz gonna ponzi, hodlers not affected. Leverage Boyz, be careful out there, could get nasty.
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August 14, 2019, 09:25:02 PM

10226

Little in the 5-dig area

Time for the first Legendary-HODLsleep, Then see where we at in the morning!

Whatever it is, the HODL keeps going bro’s.
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August 14, 2019, 09:30:47 PM

In 2015 I sold 800 BTC to buy a house for my family.

In 2018 I sold my house and bought back 50 BTC.

People who thinks I'm crazy for selling my house please know that my only regret is to have sold my bitcoins.

Investment in Real Estate is now garbage comparing to #Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinization/status/1161310562866880513?s=21

Story for a Dumbass or a Legend?

I see he’s brave to admit his wrong being and buying back BTC there should be merit in that act, but F*** how dumb to sold all of his BTC for a house..... (I think all of his BTC, not sure but if he had left it should be more so he wouldn’t sell the house to buy again 50 ....)
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August 14, 2019, 09:30:52 PM



The only interesting alevlaslo post ever.
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August 14, 2019, 09:35:02 PM

Lambie

That is excellent high quality FUD.  Would panic sell again.  AAAA+

Hairy
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August 14, 2019, 09:35:38 PM

https://twitter.com/cryptochrisw/status/1161630761017053184?s=21

What a maniac Roll Eyes
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August 14, 2019, 09:37:47 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/trump-hammers-clueless-jay-powell-rails-against-crazy-inverted-yield-curve.html

Why Trump so mad.......


via Imgflip Meme Generator

hmmmmm.....
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