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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21333208 times)
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JayJuanGee
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July 25, 2019, 06:34:03 PM


I have a little bit of an issue with the phrase:  "ask for bitcoin when you buy."

I understand that it is meant to serve as a kind of clarification that there is only one bitcoin and that you gotta be careful regarding other sham coins, but it also seems to be sending a contradictory  message which plays into one of the scam coin talking points, such as bcash and perhaps some of the others in that you should have a preference to be able to spend your bitcoin.. when sound money principles would not emphasize the spending part very much.

I do know that some day when it comes time for you to spend some of your bitcoin, you are going to want to have a decent number of spending options -anyhow, maybe not such a ambiguous expression would have been better  - because like there is another desire, in conformity with Gresham's law, is to spend your less good money first, so you might not really care so much about which one you are spending as long as you are mostly HODLing your bitcoin and spending it last (or otherwise largely replacing what you do spend in a relatively timely and/or strategic manner if you are trying to accumulate and/or maintain your btc stash rather than purposefully knowing that you would be liquidating part of your btc stash if you were to not have a practice/plan to replace it).

There is another current disadvantage in spending BTC that is biased in favor of the receiver rather than the sender, and that is non-reversibility... so some sellers might be reluctant to spend BTC over other payment forms when some other payment forms that are available to them might have some buyer protections - to be able to reverse the transaction in cases that reversibility might be important to keep the seller honest.. surely not in small ticket items but larger ticket items that might require delivery, warrantability or something like that.
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July 25, 2019, 06:38:12 PM

We should have some games. Dunno what, just something to pass the time.


OK then.

Here's the game: guess WHEN, win 5 merits.


Thx, for the initiative. Wink

+1sM
Here in WO its not too hard to make that five merits even one sarcatic post will do the job.
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July 25, 2019, 06:42:23 PM
Last edit: July 25, 2019, 09:08:43 PM by mindrust
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Btw I thing my friend told me at 350-ish = he Said imagine this thing could rise crazy high with only a 10% chance of succeeding.... Then you must invest, and for him the % of success where much higher but nontheless imo you already should invest with thinking this.... might be b00ze talking now, and F*** mindrust go all-in bro, be more happy with your wealth in BTC as in crypto especially when there are no unexpected costs looking around the corner....

Personally, it seems to me that mindrust has a pretty decent approach, even though sometimes i do not really agree with him, and also he seems to go through a quite a lot of emotional turmoil regarding what to do exactly, yet I believe that he maintains most of his sanity by keeping some funds in fiat rather than "going all in."  

I do recognize that a decent number of people do kick themselves on a regular basis asserting that they should have gone all in at time x or time y or time z, and they had the money to do so, but they did not have the balls.  Seems like those people would be easily shaken too, so even though each of us may have tendencies to second guess ourselves in this regard, we have to balance an investment strategy and approach for the present, and not regretting about the past, and our present assessment has to prepare ourselves at each present time for either UP or DOWN, so in that regard, it comes off as way too foolish in the gambling direction to be going "all in" or anywhere close to "all in" when a guy (or gal) is hardly even close to confident regarding bitcoin's price direction - short term, medium term or even trepidations about long term.

I do think mindrust absolutely knows what he's doing..... but just always waiting for again lower the then push the pedal and invest the total reserved amount of FIAT is just not how I would do (again thats just me) I would prefer to push forward at whatever reasonable good price moment instead of waiting for the 30-50% drop....
I also prefer to hold more in BTC as I hold in FIAT.... and if he would buy he's reserved FIAT in BTC then there is enough time to buy dips with fresh incoming FIAT afterwards ......

But you must feel very confident and feel good with holding FIAT in BTC whiteout being emotional touched by its swings.....

Well, maybe we need mindrust to clarify the facts regarding this lil dispute then?

Seems that you and I are reading the facts different.

From my reading, Mindrust had already invested more than 20% of his investible assets into BTC.   Of course, the percentage of that overall percentage into BTC has gone up because of BTC's price appreciation and still could be decently over 50% (I don't recall exactly if he disclosed how much for the appreciation, but that is quite a bit)....  

I personally would not get too upset if total BTC proportion is higher due to BTC price appreciation as compared with how much he initially put in and how much he is continuing to authorize himself to invest on a regular basis.

The thing is that he continues to keep some kind of reserve fund for investing in BTC which he allocates for both regular dollar cost average buying on a regular basis (no matter what the price) and another portion of his allocated fiat that is dedicated for buying on dips.  

I believe that there is nothing wrong with his plan, but there seems to be something wrong with his getting anxious, on a regular basis about his plan.  I am starting to think it is his own personal psychological anxiety of feeling that he does not own enough BTC.   He wants to be rich before he is rich, so he is trying to rush it based on the total amount of assets that he has.  It is a kind of understandable situation.  Let's say someone has less than 10 BTC and they have spent a lot of time working his butt off to acquire that stash, but he would feel a whole hell of a lot more comfortable if he had more than 30BTC.. but such a thing is not really very realistic given his total financial situation.

Anyhow, I personally think that he is doing well, given his own circumstances, in spite of his anxiety, and I think that sometimes he does overinvest, too... which also causes him some anxiety that he could have used those same funds to buy lower, if the BTC price subsequently were to go down.

Ultimately probably the question continues to be a kind of wanting to do the best that you can with the amount of resources that you have, and even though he is doing pretty good, he would feel a whole hell of a lot better once BTC goes up more than 10x again or if he were able to increase his BTC stash by something like 3x, and then he would not need BTC to go up 10x in order to achieve similar results in terms of comfort levels regarding overall wealth.

Quote from: JJG
I do recognize that a decent number of people do kick themselves on a regular basis asserting that they should have gone all in at time x or time y or time z, and they had the money to do so, but they did not have the balls.  Seems like those people would be easily shaken too

Well, I don't really have anything clever to say.

JJG's post pretty much sums it. If I was all in now, every time btc made x2 against FIAT, it would have created huge pressure on me. I'd rather be chill and hodl for a bit longer to get to my target wealth. I'd probably get to my target much sooner than I'll ever will if went all in...

I could have gone all in when it was $3k, didn't do. Could have done it when it was $5k still didn't. $8k? nope. Now we are at $10k? How many of you really would go all in now? How many? I don't see many hands in the air... Yep that's why I didn't go all in back in the day.

Tbh I don't really know what I am doing.

I just canalize around %20 to %40 of my monthly income to btc.  Grin It just feels right to me that way. %20-%40 monthly is probably what JJG calls "overinvesting" and to mic, I am probably underinvesting.  Grin Last year in Feb I was about to go not all in but I was going to invest %100 of my monthly income and for a few months I actually did it. (now that was overinvesting)
 
The truth is I don't have many choices.

I don't like to buy stocks and I still wouldn't buy too many of them if they were cheap and luckily for me they are not, which makes my decision a lot easier. Especially in where I live, stocks are a big "NO NO" It is a much bigger casino than Primedice.

Gold? Own a few coins. Which is enough.

What's left? Real Estate? I am not big enough for that stuff and even If I were, I still wouldn't do it. Too much paperwork, too many shit to deal with. Being a landlord of somebody is not something I'd really want but I'll be one eventually if get to my target probably.

Crypto is just so easy. You buy, it goes up, you cash out, pay your taxes and you are free to go. Almost no paperwork, no rules when you trade. Markets are up 24/7 you can cash out any time. It is just great.

If you have a decent investment idea, you are free to tell me about it. I'll look into it.

My own initial investments on crypto more than doubled itself now. I am quite happy with the results but ofc it is not enough for my targeted "fuck you" status.

I am just trying to get to the double digits with btc. If I get to the "fuck you" price before that happens that's fine. If not I'll just be DCA'ing. DCA'ing feels so good. I became an addict. It is like you are doing some groceries for home every month (or week) but you get bitcoins instead. I feel comfortable that way.

Oh look, I became a wordy man too.
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July 25, 2019, 06:49:24 PM


I have a little bit of an issue with the phrase:  "ask for bitcoin when you buy."

I understand that it is meant to serve as a kind of clarification that there is only one bitcoin and that you gotta be careful regarding other sham coins, but it also seems to be sending a contradictory  message which plays into one of the scam coin talking points, such as bcash and perhaps some of the others in that you should have a preference to be able to spend your bitcoin.. when sound money principles would not emphasize the spending part very much.

I do know that some day when it comes time for you to spend some of your bitcoin, you are going to want to have a decent number of spending options -anyhow, maybe not such a ambiguous expression would have been better  - because like there is another desire, in conformity with Gresham's law, is to spend your less good money first, so you might not really care so much about which one you are spending as long as you are mostly HODLing your bitcoin and spending it last (or otherwise largely replacing what you do spend in a relatively timely and/or strategic manner if you are trying to accumulate and/or maintain your btc stash rather than purposefully knowing that you would be liquidating part of your btc stash if you were to not have a practice/plan to replace it).

There is another current disadvantage in spending BTC that is biased in favor of the receiver rather than the sender, and that is non-reversibility... so some sellers might be reluctant to spend BTC over other payment forms when some other payment forms that are available to them might have some buyer protections - to be able to reverse the transaction in cases that reversibility might be important to keep the seller honest.. surely not in small ticket items but larger ticket items that might require delivery, warrantability or something like that.
I honestly think it's just a call back to the old school advertisements that this is referencing, not exactly some clarification.
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July 25, 2019, 06:57:22 PM

Sitting right at 10k... feels like 4K did in March
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July 25, 2019, 07:01:26 PM
Merited by micgoossens (5), LFC_Bitcoin (1), bkbirge (1)

Ahead of my time

Oh shit 80s hair forming



Moderate barting. Doesn't feel like ATH times at the moment.

Didn't know there was a word for that behavior, thanks for expanding my vocab.
https://cryptocurrencyfacts.com/2018/04/16/the-bart-crypto-pattern/


I wouldn't be surprised if the bart pattern originated on this very thread, or was at least picked up early by someone here.  It is supposed to have first been seen in mid-2018, and it feels it's been on here about as long.

There have been daft patterns painted on charts here since the days of MagicMexican's 'Dyno TA' paintings, for those here with long memories...
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July 25, 2019, 07:01:34 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I honestly think it's just a call back to the old school advertisements that this is referencing, not exactly some clarification.

My interpretation is that by "asking for bitcoin when you buy", you (as a BTC holder) are responsible for spreading the word. So when enough people are "asking for bitcoin when they buy" it's not for the purpose of spending bitcoins, but to generate interest in bitcoin in the sellers mind. ("what's that bitcoin everybody asks for lately? I'll google it, maybe it's of some use...")
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July 25, 2019, 07:35:50 PM


555 means something! If you can't count 555 can




And you can count on that. Time after time.
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July 25, 2019, 07:44:18 PM

Sitting right at 10k... feels like 4K did in March
Just only for few hours so no conclusion about the price stabilization now.

Bulls are tired so need rest right? Grin
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July 25, 2019, 07:47:05 PM

Sitting right at 10k... feels like 4K did in March
Just only for few hours so no conclusion about the price stabilization now.

Bulls are tired so need rest right? Grin

We’ve been trading in the $9,000 - $11,500 range for a little while now buddy. It could quite easily be the bew somewhat boring, stable range for a few months before the next leg up (hopefully).
JayJuanGee
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July 25, 2019, 07:48:13 PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/UglyOldGoat1/status/1154169121069658112?s=20

Tyler, hyperwave... is gone.

I didn't like his opinions lately but I still feel bad. R.I.P.
Thank you for the information I was not aware of that.  Undecided
Sad news  Embarrassed

I looked around to try to figure out how old Tyler Jenks was, but I could not find anything.  Also, as far as I can see, his cause of death has not been described anywhere either.

I am thinking maybe early seventies, but I am not sure.  So, yeah, we were just getting used to picking on his hyperwave theory (a kind of down before up), so it would have been nice to be able to continue such an interaction, including that in recent times, after BTC went above $10k, he started to recommend buying BTC again.. which is a bit weird compared to a strategy that would have been buying at a bit lower price instead of waiting for $1k-ish prices that were likely NOT as likely as he was making them out to be.. him and Tone Vays and a few others were on that train that seemed to had been waiting for more down before buying any BTC but then instead began buying again at a price that was higher than todays price... seems weird to me, but what do I know when it comes to gambling based on "solid" market predictions?
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July 25, 2019, 07:52:57 PM

Events to celebrate:

1. WO page parity
2. 100K BTCUSD
3. WO Post parity
4. Gold Parity (BTC capitalisation equals Gold Capitalisation).

If we are to assume that appreciation in Bitcoin price comes in large part from cannibalization of gold market, you have 3. & 4. reversed.

Early musings:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=152944.0

$800K assumes static gold valuation. If bitcoin purchases are funded by gold sales, the napkinback figures say $400K crossover.
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July 25, 2019, 07:54:07 PM

...and we were doing so well...
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July 25, 2019, 08:03:22 PM

@Rhythmtrader
Nine pages written anonymously.

The largest supercomputer in the world.

An immutable record that has never gone offline.

Tens of millions of users choosing a bank with no CEO, office, PR or marketing to store their wealth.

Bitcoin makes Wall Street look like vaporware. 🔥
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July 25, 2019, 08:13:31 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

... what do I know when it comes to gambling based on "solid" market predictions?

I know that you need to shut the fuck up.
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July 25, 2019, 08:13:54 PM

Gold in World of Warcraft is seven times more expensive than Venezuelan money. Fiat money = bubble and pyramid!



Does your point have any connection with bitcoin? 
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July 25, 2019, 08:17:58 PM

.... zooming the pic 400% 

I don't know why I always seem to see an ironic pun regarding your username in your posts.
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July 25, 2019, 08:18:18 PM

sorry changing HAT for a few hours..... GOOD REASONs

Observing again 4 digits.
Hope change in HAT is for a good reason, because mkt didn't like that!


Very good reasons I started the NEW session of our poker.... the rule this time is 12 session of playing Then payment ....

XhomerX Made a pokerHAT for when I play Wink

First of 12 went very good Smiley luck was on my side in a few spots

Then I left my friends place drive from him to Amsterdam to meet with a few forum members, almost there Cheesy
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July 25, 2019, 08:26:08 PM

Nov 2001?

We have a winner! Congrats!

Exact date Nov 18, 2001.

Thanks to you,
Now I know everything about that particular NY location, Win XP Launch, BroadWay Legends...


Phil_S :The picture was taken early afternoon, maybe at 3:00 PM or so...


EXIF says 3:38 PM, so... pretty good!
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July 25, 2019, 08:28:08 PM
Merited by micgoossens (2)

Events to celebrate:

1. WO page parity
2. 100K BTCUSD
3. WO Post parity
4. Gold Parity (BTC capitalisation equals Gold Capitalisation).

If we are to assume that appreciation in Bitcoin price comes in large part from cannibalization of gold market, you have 3. & 4. reversed.

Early musings:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=152944.0

$800K assumes static gold valuation. If bitcoin purchases are funded by gold sales, the napkinback figures say $400K crossover.

Funny thing, i did the exact same "back of the envelope" calculations years ago, even before joining the forum, but i got quite differnet numbers.
Copying and pasting from vbery old spreasheet:

Circulating Bitcoin   21,000,000
GOLD CAPTIALISATION   7,311,002,497,490.22
http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp   
   
      
Bitcoin share   50.00%
Equal Share   174,071

So, if Bitcoin Equals Gold to 50% of current Gold Capitalisation, I get the value of a single bitcoin at 175,000 USD.
For Bitcoin to match gold capitalisation it need to get to 350K USD.

All computation made with 21 mios BTC supply (resulting in conservative estimates)

So basically I get half your valuation, with the same method!
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