Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Jays in Seattle next week Jimbo.

Always a good time.

First they play 3 games here in Toronto starting tomorrow night. It's nice to play one of the few teams lower in the standings than the rebuilding Jays.

Of course any game in Seattle is like a home game for the Jays and this will be an opportunity for Jays' fans in western Canada to see the rookie-dominated team, especially the 3 amigos, Guerrero, Bichette and Biggio. Seems just about every game Bichette is setting a new record.

The painful part of the rebuilding process is being left behind and is being replaced by the excitement of seeing the new core gel into a cohesive unit. It helps that this core developed together in the minor leagues, winning championships at each level, and already has a pre-made camaraderie.

Now all the team needs is some pitching but there's even some hope in that. Several of the Jays' rookies are showing great promise and #1 pitching prospect Nate Pearson projects to be an ace. He's still a couple of years away though. By then the young core should be hitting their prime and hopefully a couple of free agents or trades will push the team over the top.

These are exciting times for the Jays, similar to where the Yankees were at a few short years ago.

Hope you get out to see them play at Safeco Field. I love the cheering contests between the 2 groups of fans.  

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[fillippone]

Given how China has captured the core group behind the scheme, and China's law enforcement history I'm expecting they'll get death.

Is there a tool that can generate those sorts of wallet address graphs?

Not publicly available, I am afraid.
every decent chain-analytic firm has their own private tool to graph those dependency of course, but they are really careful not to make those available.

[cAPSLOCK]

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.

I honestly think this is a good strategy.  I mean, I am not an active trader.  The tax implications of a sell are too ridiculous for me to profit, and I am in this for the long haul.  Or at least a good medium haul.

Bitcoin has certainly grown me a pair of balls.

The risk we take when we do this is we won't be able to "sell before it's too late"?  But I just see that as a false risk. I am not selling while we are down anyway.

Maybe I drank the kool-aid?  Meh...  Purple drank.

[aesma]

Fair enough point, but I still would be hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket, no matter what my age.  Of course, if you are real young and barely just living on your own (moving out of the parent house or even living with parents and in the early stages of building your wealth), then in those cases, you usually do start with just investing in one thing while you are building your portfolio, and then you might start to expand out with the passage of time.  If you only have one investment because you are just starting to invest, then probably in those kinds of circumstances, you might start out with bitcoin... perhaps?  Those are somewhat individually tailored decisions concerning how diversified any person needs to be in terms of cash flow and projected expenses, too.

It also depends on your income. I'm not 20 but still at the start of my career, without a good diploma, so not a great salary. Most of my savings go towards my company's stock, as it's making a matching contribution, it's a safe bet I can't overlook. I was in the stock market but sold everything as it became scary, two years later it has basically not moved (French stock market), so I just lost some dividends, but got peace of mind. Overall I'm 30% company stock, 30% cash, 40% BTC, with BTC's share quite volatile obviously. At current prices I couldn't even buy 1BTC/year so not really worth it, better keep cash and buy when it's lower. I want to put the company stock and some/most of the cash towards a home with a small mortgage on top, after that I might put more money towards BTC, but not even sure, I'd like some land, maybe a bit of forest.

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, and yeah, I agree that we should not be making the bulk of our investment decisions and/or allocations based on such unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there, such as roach and like-thinking acolytes of similar dumbass mindsets)

In that case you also need physical gold, stashed at home. An ETF or whatever is useless. Stashing at home has its own downsides.

[Hueristic]

I don't know how many of you are keeping an eye on Honk Kong at the moment but things are getting real interesting and this is potentially a massive deal for the entire globe (including Bitcoin). Now, I have access to a group that discusses the global economy and one of its members is a very well to do business person with high level contacts within the CCP. Today I read a conversation this business person was having and it was very intriguing, so much so that I thought that people here might benefit from it. I have therefore posted it below. The person in question is named TR.

TR: China does not want to directly intervene - moderates in BJ have been holding the hawks in check. But last week, even the moderates started to indicate it was going to far. But the trap is set for BJ intervention, if it is direct, overt and very violent, the damage will be irrepairable with capital and business flight to SG.

PK: I'm not surprised by that. If it gets violent bye bye hk. It's as good as destroyed

TR: it is now - writing is on the wall - whether it is this week or next year, hk is gone

PK: Yeah true there's no real coming back from this wrt outsiders

ST: Once they declare that the two systems approach is not working and is over, the problem will be largely resolved. At the moment they cannot do anything about the protesters because they are outside of Chinese jurisdication. China has to leave it to Hong Kong to deal with. Declaring an end to the two systems approach may be dramatic but it does not need to be violent. Once the two systems is dead the Chinese can pass laws on extradiction and removal and that should freak out anyone in Hong Kong.

Who is going to protest once they understand they are subject to the Chinese justice system.

Plenty of Chinese cities will be champing at the bit to get a slice of the Hong Kong action. Certainly a lot of western businesses will decamp to Singapore but that may be seen as a small price to pay compared to ongoing humiliation.

TR: Actually a declaration of the end of the 1 country 2 system policy is extremely complex and the implications would result in the immediate change of status for banks etc in the US and EU, would create a political crisis in TW and flatten the HK economy overnight.

And no, HK is the primary conduit for capital movement and regulation for the PBOC. SH is the largest "base" for foreign HQ's in China only behind HK (20% vs 80%) and unless the movement of funds laws for foreign companies changes, these would need to move to SG.

Many SOE's are listed in HK to allow access to USD and easier capital movements as well as international bond markets. This would dry up overnight

US government is obligated to change the status of HK if the 2 system policy is changed before 2047 which would make the current trade war (it's not a trade war, but hell the tweeter in Chief knows all right) look like a macroeconomic nirvana

In other words, no, there is no solution in declaring the 2 system 1 country setup dead unless you have all the contingency plans in place, invade TW overnight and no longer need to do business with US or its allies

ST: That is just law. Laws get changed all the time. China marching in with troops will have exactly the same effect but with far more damage.

TR: no - you are missing the point - it is not just law but a whole shake up of the underlying business structure for SOE's in China and how they are able to transact business

ST: The moment Chinese authorities enter the 2 systems model is a dead duck. I am not missing the point. Law is just words.

TR: Which is why are desperately looking for back door methods to restore control

ST: There are no back door methods

If Hong Kong authorities lose control the 2 system model is dead.
Even now it is falling apart as people are claiming Chinese agents in the HK police.
The danger for China is that if they don’t the 2 system model now it may become permanent.
End

I think there is a lot of confusion because people assumed that in 2047 China would become like Hong Kong when the reverse is much more likely.

ST: The difficulty for China is that the 2 system model prevents them from controlling what is happening. They are dependent on HK controlling HK locals and that is clearly not working. The HK police are likely to be stuck chasing kids around the metro indefinitely. That China tried to get help from the triads indicates how little control they can exert. The situation is likely to get uglier and uglier until the sovereign power exerts its power and takes control of its territory.

Of course China could just cede its claim to Hong Kong. That is the best option.

The protesters don’t seem to understand that by demonstrating the impotence of the HK authorities they are demonstrating that the 2 system model is dead.
A government that cannot exert control is a dead duck and we know the reason why HK cannot exert control is because it is not a real government. It is a fake government and it is falling apart right now.

In the end China has no choice. If the HK government cannot impose its authority China will have to. Which of course is going to be a rude shock for lots of people who have assumed that an incoherent model of government is sustainable under pressure.

TR: Lets just see - I can't say what I know because it exposes who I talk to. I am sure that pressure is mounting for HK to end this, but I also know that the implications of direct involvement in the resolution of the situation is well known to many prominent decision makers.
To some extent you are seeing the response with "foreign power behind the unrest" meme that is circulating. Lets see how this plays out - like I said - they are looking at back door methods to restore control...

I really had no clue this shit had gotten so bad, i was under the impression china had a hands off policy on HK. Apparently thats bullshit and after alot of googling and watching youtube vids I still have no clue whats going on there. I thought HK was the Golden Goose, is china trying to kill it?


Seriously if anyone can explain wtf is going on or link something that doesn't take a day of research to wade through that will sum up what the deal is, post it please.

[Globb0]

Financial conduct authority UK - Crypto

https://www.fca.org.uk/publications/policy-statements/ps19-22-guidance-cryptoassets

[lightfoot]

Not publicly available, I am afraid.
every decent chain-analytic firm has their own private tool to graph those dependency of course, but they are really careful not to make those available.

Lame. I guess I'll have to write one then. Oh well.

[mindrust]

I really had no clue this shit had gotten so bad, i was under the impression china had a hands off policy on HK. Apparently thats bullshit and after alot of googling and watching youtube vids I still have no clue whats going on there. I thought HK was the Golden Goose, is china trying to kill it?


Seriously if anyone can explain wtf is going on or link something that doesn't take a day of research to wade through that will sum up what the deal is, post it please.

Hong Kong Activist Leader Calls For A Run On Chinese Banks Tomorrow

The shit is hitting the fucking fan. That's what happening in HK.

Tomorrow will be a good day.

[Biodom]

Accusations against GE:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/heres-the-full-report-calling-ge-a-bigger-fraud-than-enron.html

Wow, it used to be such an icon until about 2000.

[lightfoot]

Ah yes, GE. Weren't they they ones who pioneered "forced ranking" which is a great way to get employees to turn against each other for company profit?

Fuck em.

[HairyMaclairy]

Fair enough point, but I still would be hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket, no matter what my age.  Of course, if you are real young and barely just living on your own (moving out of the parent house or even living with parents and in the early stages of building your wealth), then in those cases, you usually do start with just investing in one thing while you are building your portfolio, and then you might start to expand out with the passage of time.  If you only have one investment because you are just starting to invest, then probably in those kinds of circumstances, you might start out with bitcoin... perhaps?  Those are somewhat individually tailored decisions concerning how diversified any person needs to be in terms of cash flow and projected expenses, too.

It also depends on your income. I'm not 20 but still at the start of my career, without a good diploma, so not a great salary. Most of my savings go towards my company's stock, as it's making a matching contribution, it's a safe bet I can't overlook. I was in the stock market but sold everything as it became scary, two years later it has basically not moved (French stock market), so I just lost some dividends, but got peace of mind. Overall I'm 30% company stock, 30% cash, 40% BTC, with BTC's share quite volatile obviously. At current prices I couldn't even buy 1BTC/year so not really worth it, better keep cash and buy when it's lower. I want to put the company stock and some/most of the cash towards a home with a small mortgage on top, after that I might put more money towards BTC, but not even sure, I'd like some land, maybe a bit of forest.

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, and yeah, I agree that we should not be making the bulk of our investment decisions and/or allocations based on such unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there, such as roach and like-thinking acolytes of similar dumbass mindsets)

In that case you also need physical gold, stashed at home. An ETF or whatever is useless. Stashing at home has its own downsides.

Seriously consider selling part of your company stock for other stocks

Right now, if your company goes under, you lose your job and your investment at the same time.  

For me, that risk is too concentrated.  

[aesma]

It's a very large company (part of the CAC40 index), it trades a lot with governments etc., it can't really go under. I would sell some if I could, but I have to wait 5 years, quit the job, or buy a home to be able to sell it.

[HairyMaclairy]

Ok understood.  Hopefully Bitcoin can be your hedge 

[zhekinsp]

My heart was broken when I see the prices hitting $9500 few hours earlier then decided to take a nap then again hurray $10K is on the screen.

I think I need to sleep for few more days to bring the prices to $15K.

[HairyMaclairy]

I really had no clue this shit had gotten so bad, i was under the impression china had a hands off policy on HK. Apparently thats bullshit and after alot of googling and watching youtube vids I still have no clue whats going on there. I thought HK was the Golden Goose, is china trying to kill it?


Seriously if anyone can explain wtf is going on or link something that doesn't take a day of research to wade through that will sum up what the deal is, post it please.

Hong Kong Activist Leader Calls For A Run On Chinese Banks Tomorrow

The shit is hitting the fucking fan. That's what happening in HK.

Tomorrow will be a good day.

Here is a good article explaining the protests:

 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/13/what-do-the-hong-kong-protesters-want

I remember the fall of the Soviet Union.  

It is possible that Hong Kong will be the spark that tips over the Chinese Communist Party. Especially if the protests spread to Taiwan and Macau.  

[bkbirge]

I really had no clue this shit had gotten so bad, i was under the impression china had a hands off policy on HK. Apparently thats bullshit and after alot of googling and watching youtube vids I still have no clue whats going on there. I thought HK was the Golden Goose, is china trying to kill it?


Seriously if anyone can explain wtf is going on or link something that doesn't take a day of research to wade through that will sum up what the deal is, post it please.

Hong Kong Activist Leader Calls For A Run On Chinese Banks Tomorrow

The shit is hitting the fucking fan. That's what happening in HK.

Tomorrow will be a good day.

Here is a good article explaining the protests:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/13/what-do-the-hong-kong-protesters-want

I remember the fall of the Soviet Union.  

It is possible that Hong Kong will be the spark that tips over the Chinese Communist Party. Especially if the protests spread to Taiwan and Macau. 

China is not in the same situation as Soviet Russia was economically or politically based on my very cursory and casual reading of the news, I'd be very surprised if China doesn't get a handle on this. I'll go read that article, thanks for sharing.

[makrospex]

For those watching alts, check out stakeey.com for some cool ways to diversify your crypto holdings through art

wrong thread.

[Biodom]

Here is a good article explaining the protests:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/13/what-do-the-hong-kong-protesters-want

I remember the fall of the Soviet Union.  

It is possible that Hong Kong will be the spark that tips over the Chinese Communist Party. Especially if the protests spread to Taiwan and Macau. 

China is not in the same situation as Soviet Russia was economically or politically based on my very cursory and casual reading of the news, I'd be very surprised if China doesn't get a handle on this. I'll go read that article, thanks for sharing.

How do you know in what situation they are?
Getting handle on this?
I am surprised that US is not supporting Hk all the way.
What happened to pro-democracy stance?

[Hueristic]

I really had no clue this shit had gotten so bad, i was under the impression china had a hands off policy on HK. Apparently thats bullshit and after alot of googling and watching youtube vids I still have no clue whats going on there. I thought HK was the Golden Goose, is china trying to kill it?


Seriously if anyone can explain wtf is going on or link something that doesn't take a day of research to wade through that will sum up what the deal is, post it please.

Hong Kong Activist Leader Calls For A Run On Chinese Banks Tomorrow

The shit is hitting the fucking fan. That's what happening in HK.

Tomorrow will be a good day.

This should be interesting, but won't the state run banks just close? China is a dictatorship at the end of the day no matter how they try to wrap it.

Here is a good article explaining the protests:

 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/13/what-do-the-hong-kong-protesters-want

I remember the fall of the Soviet Union. 

It is possible that Hong Kong will be the spark that tips over the Chinese Communist Party. Especially if the protests spread to Taiwan and Macau. 

Thanks Hairy.

[bkbirge]

Here is a good article explaining the protests:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/13/what-do-the-hong-kong-protesters-want

I remember the fall of the Soviet Union.  

It is possible that Hong Kong will be the spark that tips over the Chinese Communist Party. Especially if the protests spread to Taiwan and Macau. 

China is not in the same situation as Soviet Russia was economically or politically based on my very cursory and casual reading of the news, I'd be very surprised if China doesn't get a handle on this. I'll go read that article, thanks for sharing.

How do you know in what situation they are?
Getting handle on this?
I am surprised that US is not supporting Hk all the way.
What happened to pro-democracy stance?

I don't think the end of the Soviet Union has a lot of parallels with the current HK crisis. China is not a bankrupt oligarchy with a large unhappy population. The US should support HK's pro democracy push, but I seriously doubt this will be the spark that brings down Communist China.