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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21330879 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (104 posts by 20 users deleted.)
Ludwig Von
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July 24, 2019, 05:16:43 PM
Merited by micgoossens (2), VB1001 (1)

Senate Banking Committee to Hold Hearing on Crypto Regulation

Me and Mnuchin are gonna drop the hammer on this bitch.

What the fuck do you, diptwat, have to do with anything beyond spreading FUD and other various nonsense on the interwebs?  

Projecting some kind of status/position/alliance on yourself?

Yeah, right...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Likely you have been reading too many "grandma and me" books, and just substituted "Mnuchin and me."  Good job.



That is a good one JJG!  Cheesy Cheesy I bought that first interactive CD rom (for what it was at that time), to let my daughter become computer litterate when she was 5 years... . Now she is doing her post doctorate in Oslo... .  Cheesy
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VB1001
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July 24, 2019, 05:23:05 PM

Newegg Extends Bitcoin Payment Option to 73 New Countries

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LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Newegg, the leading tech-focused e-retailer in North America with a global reach into more than 80 countries, today announced it will begin accepting Bitcoin in 73 additional Newegg country-specific stores. With these recent additions, Newegg customers can now pay with Bitcoin in nearly all of the countries the company serves worldwide.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190724005272/en/Newegg-Extends-Bitcoin-Payment-Option-73-New



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July 24, 2019, 05:25:34 PM

Hello Lady and Gents
 I havent posted on here since 2015 when my account The Doxing, was banned from posting. Some may remember when I revealed the identity of Lambie, our friendly FT journalist, who was a plague on this thread for too long. She fought it at first but once I started subtly dripping her personal info she realized I was for real and left never too return. I never released any of her personal emails. She is gone and that is what is important. I have been reading this thread daily since 2013 and became a long term hodler in 2014. Ive even read most of JJGs posts although some speedreading and skimming is required. Im still hodling strong over half the coins i started with and happy to see Lambie doesnt plague these forums any more. The most recent dumpfest was more ridiculous imo than the Jan 2015 one so it felt like a good time to drop in and say hello after many years. Despite the rivers of blood, the carnage and the despair we have seen lately, at least NLC isnt flooding us with disgusting porn. Oh yeah and since I havent posted in so long, Ill think Ill call bottom while Im here, a little prediction never hurt anyone. I doubt Ill be back to post again for a long time but Ill be reading and enjoying everyones comments, even Roach who I believe is an undercover permabull of Jewish descent Wink

Wow Lambie, this was an excellent first post. Mad respect!

I saw it mentioned here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5168331.msg51936956#msg51936956

Care to comment?
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July 24, 2019, 07:16:00 PM

No problem.

Pantera Capital CEO Expects Bitcoin Price to Reach $356,000 by 2022

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Morehead's comments about the price of Bitcoin were brought on when he was asked by Shin where we currently are in the development of blockchain technology.

Morehead said that people should realize that we are only 10 years into a two-decade long project, and that for the people who use Bitcoin as a "proxy" for the crypto space, they should note that if we zoom out a bit and look at the price chart for Bitcoin over a period that is longer than year, the Bitcoin price is always going up. AT his own firm, Morehead pointed out that they do not worry about short term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and they have more of a 3-5 year timeframe in mind.

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/07/pantera-capital-ceo-expects-bitcoin-price-to-reach-356000-by-2022/

You don’t need to be an head of a multi billion hedge fund to understand that.

I start anyway to believe that next halving is crucial.
I don’t know if it’s priced in or not (my gut feeling tells me it’s not), but if price don’t move seriously upward as PlanB suggests, maybe even lagging SF model for up to one year after May 2020, then we could have a proper test of bitcoin value proposition as an experiment of Store of Value/digital gold.
All the institutional money that is supposedly flowing into Bitcoin is surely looking into that.

I believe in bitcoin, but it's not a religious approach, it's not faith based on dogmas.It's a rational expectation of the market pricing correctly all the feature of the protocol.


I mean, that Bitcoin will take the path that it pleases, as always, in 2017, at the end of November, the BTC price was +/- 10,000 in mid-December was ATH in just 15 days.

The articles are interesting to take the pulse of the market from different angles.

This does not mean that I agree with them.

But, yes, I recognize that I am more BTCull than bear. Wink

VB1001, I am number one fan of PlanB.
When I am down I listen to his podcast at Stephen Livera and I immediately forget my worrings and RL problems.
I do believe in his models and I find those very innovative and hard to dismiss, given the test he made to prevent spurious correlations.

I am only pointing out that this if the first halving event put into test by "general public" and "institutional money", and if the effect on the price that we all here hope to see.. well then we could even fall back into a perma-cryptowinter.
Hopefully I am wrong, but all the bullishness we have seen around this event must be tested, in the end.

I cannot fault you, fillippone, for attempting to figure out whether our upcoming halvening is "priced in" or not, because if that were to be answered in the affirmative, then you are correct, we might be in for another potentially drawn out cryptowinter, and even perhaps prematurely, too.  I do believe that there are pretty low odds, however, for the halvening being "priced in", because there are way too many newbies coming into the space on an ongoing basis, whether we are talking about institutions or retail or even existing HODLers increasing their stakes, and even when there are all these fucktwats suggesting that bitcoin's market is maturing because so many institutional investors are getting in and blah blah blah....

The truth of the matter would be way higher bitcoin prices NOW if there was much if any real or meaningful adoption/investment from institutional investors, like that seeming to be asserted on a regular basis.

I will give it to you (or anyone else) that it seems fairly likely that a decent number of institutional investors (perhaps along with already existing bitcoin users) had contributed to our latest BTC pump from $4,200 to $13,880 - but we also should recognize a kind of reality that it does not take a whole hell of a lot of money to actually pump BTC's price by 3x - especially when we are referencing the kind of value that any of the decently large institutional investors would be able to put in, if they were to want to, and even conglomerating some of the smaller institutional investors, and the pure quantity of our most recent pump likely shows that NOT a whole hell of a lot of institutional investors (whether small or large) are yet into bitcoin and making the down-low investments that we have been told that they have been making that supposedly had contributed to the most recent pump.

So, yeah, certainly prepare for BTC  price movements in either direction, and yeah, don't be taking out a large mortgage (or loan) on a $5 million mini-yacht that might require your 166 BTC stash to be approaching somewhere in the value of $100k plus territory in order to be able to meet the terms of your mortgage, when we still have not even gotten close to those kinds of numbers, yet,... it's far from any kind of reliance, including that we will ever reach supra $20k prices within the next 5-10 years.  

Nonetheless, even though I feel that I am going to be personally better off if the BTC prices are higher than they are today in the next 5-10 years, I also think that there remains decently high odds, that a new ATH is going to be reached in the coming year or two (or possibly less) with snowballing values that likely bring us to really high numbers that are likely to exceed 10 x from today's price in that time-frame and reasonably could go beyond 100x.... simultaneously, don't be counting your eggs before they have hatched.
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July 24, 2019, 07:23:59 PM

Newegg Extends Bitcoin Payment Option to 73 New Countries

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LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Newegg, the leading tech-focused e-retailer in North America with a global reach into more than 80 countries, today announced it will begin accepting Bitcoin in 73 additional Newegg country-specific stores. With these recent additions, Newegg customers can now pay with Bitcoin in nearly all of the countries the company serves worldwide.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190724005272/en/Newegg-Extends-Bitcoin-Payment-Option-73-New





those are the news i like!

One of the best use cases for BTC: cross border paying.

go BTC go!
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July 24, 2019, 07:24:35 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
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July 24, 2019, 07:30:57 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

The latter.

We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.
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July 24, 2019, 07:42:09 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

I don't think it is HIGHLY likely... just somewhat likely. But you must take into account that:

1) This is an extremely risky investment which could perfectly go to zero in a snap (even if that risk gets smaller over time).

2) This is also an extremely volatile asset. It could perfectly reach $100K in a few years AND go to $1K some time along the road (not comparing the likelihood of the two events just saying both are possible).... so that means some people could be waiting for a lower price and/or a moment in which the prospect is better).

If $100K were a SURE (or almost sure) thing in less than 10 years I would be selling ALL I have and going full retard into BTC. It isn't. It is just somewhat likely... IMHO.
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July 24, 2019, 07:45:26 PM

I just put a chunk of my btc holdings into celsius.network to earn interest

A quarter-old entity based in a remote area of the world? What could possibly go wrong?

Lots
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July 24, 2019, 07:49:42 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

Then you should address your question to the person who put this model together:

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/86/

Go to minute 29:00 onward, PlanB is going to answer to your question.

jbreher is right: People is simply not aware of the model and the halving effect on the stock to flow.

In my monthly blurb of Jun I also commented on the fact that, apparently, a good percentage of Greyscale investors ( i.e. "institutional money", people that should be professional investors and know every minute details of their investments) don't even know about the halving!
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July 24, 2019, 07:50:05 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

I think that you are attempting to place too much weight on these kinds of tools, including your last point that seems to be the most valid one.

When we have early stages of adoption that is likely going to involve exponential growth, you are not going to get people buying now in anticipation of that because they are uncertain that such exponential growth is going to happen, so the s-curve exponential growth is a mere probability, but a lot of us who have been in bitcoin for a decently long time, already have the advantage of the asymmetric information, so we already buy early, buy often and buy as much as we are reasonably able to buy (of course, even we have our doubts, so we do not want to over invest).  Accordingly, we also have to wait for others to come on board, and they are going to be driving this snowballing effect into the future.  Again, the future is not a certainty, it is merely a high probability that becomes more of a certainty with BTC passage above certain adoption thresholds.... which are also not certainties... but likely.

A lot of us HOLDers feel good about our asymmetric information and our asymmetric investment.. that does not just shoot up, merely because a lot of us know about it.  Should not be that difficult of a concept to get.  What's your BIG boogaloo about it?  Are you going to invest 100% of everything that might have 60% odds? and yeah, it is a moving target, too, so the odds become higher or lower with the passage of certain events, but BTC remains a great investment.

In my monthly blurb of Jun I also commented on the fact that, apparently, a good percentage of Greyscale investors ( i.e. "institutional money", people that should be professional investors and know every minute details of their investments) don't even know about the halving!

Exactly!!!!!  Great additional point.  Supposedly sophisticated investors don't hardly know shit, which supports a considerable likelihood that pricing in is very difficult to achieve.. even with one aspect related to BTC supply that is clearly known in advance.... but then the demand side is not quite as well known, is it?   In other words, supply side is decently known (but not completely), but even if supply is known, demand-side is largely inferred, and could be wrong, too.
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July 24, 2019, 07:51:58 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

You were here in December 2017. Market frenzies are not rational. 
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July 24, 2019, 08:14:57 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)


If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.


I can speak for myself...

I am not going all in for the same reason I didn't go all in in 2015 or 2013.

The tech is still new I am kinda afraid. It is not like in 2015 but this is more of a general fear. I am not doubting bitcoin itself. I don't have any suspicions about bitcoin's tech and its fundamentals. Some external factors are which give me fear. They are mostly governments and regulations and similar shit.

Till 2016... I almost never invested in bitcoin from my own pocket. At least not any considerably big amounts.

My fear barrier almost completely disappeared after the  $20k ATH but I started buying in early 2017 mostly. (from $2k-$3k era) As of today, without counting any profits I made from BTC, I invested %20 of my total networth into BTC. (of course that %20 became a bigger number now since btc's price is above my average cost) In 2015 that was %0. In 2016 that was like %1.

When Bitcoin went above $1200 and then went even beyond $2k that's when it hit me in the head.

This can go to $20k in that year, 2017.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1932892.0

It did.

Now I feel very similar.

This can very well go above $50k, and maybe hit even $100k.

The situation I am in now is quite comfortable.

If it goes down too much, I have the funds to strengthen my position (my DCA's will buy more coins) or the stomach to watch what'll happen next without losing my mind. This is all because I am not over invested.

If it goes up, well it is just party time.

I remember it like yesterday I was thinking about buying from $5k but didn't want to. (actually I bought quite a lot from $5k, but what I really mean, I could have bought a lot more) Of course I am not happy with that decision now.

Why am I not going all in? Risk management. I need my sanity too when it reaches $100k.  Grin

I'll just follow the plan I made when I started this journey. Not going to change plans constantly, from my experience, I can say It always ends badly.
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July 24, 2019, 08:21:37 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

Well there are peeps who are balls deep into BTC already (LFC, goose, Bob, your humble servant etc) whose bags are full and who don't buy anymore (or do buy small q-ties). Many don't buy because they got their coins really cheap (3 digits or less) and can't force themselves to buy at $10k+. Then there are guys who believe in BTC but can't afford to buy as it will make them homeless or worsen their quality of life significantly. Finally there are lots of naysayers, nocoiners and simply ones who haven't heard about BTC.

Anyhow, I wouldn't say that this mechanism isn't working as we're now at ~$10k which is not that bad.   Cool    
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July 24, 2019, 08:58:12 PM


If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.


I can speak for myself...

I am not going all in for the same reason I didn't go all in in 2015 or 2013.


Wasn't there some point in which you asserted that you became enlightened about bitcoin in 2017-ish, and you realized that your 2013/2015 skepticisms of bitcoin were partly due to your lack of knowledge, that you supposedly subsequently fixed...

In other words, unless you reverted, you should be more enlightened now, in regards to bitcoin than you were in those earlier times, no?


The tech is still new I am kinda afraid. It is not like in 2015 but this is more of a general fear. I am not doubting bitcoin itself. I don't have any suspicions about bitcoin's tech and its fundamentals. Some external factors are which give me fear. They are mostly governments and regulations and similar shit.

Of course, everyone should have some fear and skepticism because there are a multitude of factors playing on bitcoin..... the good, bad and the ugly.

Till 2016... I almost never invested in bitcoin from my own pocket. At least not any considerably big amounts.

Yeah, and you later asserted that your non-investment in those times had been short-sighted.

My fear barrier almost completely disappeared after the  $20k ATH but I started buying in early 2017 mostly. (from $2k-$3k era) As of today, without counting any profits I made from BTC, I invested %20 of my total networth into BTC. (of course that %20 became a bigger number now since btc's price is above my average cost) In 2015 that was %0. In 2016 that was like %1.

Usually I recommend that folks invest 1% to 10% into BTC, so 20% is a bit much, but hey, everyone has differing circumstances.

Whether you should reallocate or not, might be another question.  Perhaps since you started out with a high amount, there would be more justification for you to reallocate, if you had only invested a lower amount, such as 10%. 

Those reallocation decisions are personal in nature, and partly have to deal with whether the remaining of your investments (outside of BTC) are sufficiently stable and some of them might need some additional injection of your BTC appreciation to make you, overall, more stable financially... Financial stability should assist you in being more psychologically stable, too.


When Bitcoin went above $1200 and then went even beyond $2k that's when it hit me in the head.

This can go to $20k in that year, 2017.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1932892.0

It did.

You predicted it or wished for it?  Hahahahahaha.. I think that I understand, that you had presented ideas that $20k was possible... which is just a statement of what could happen, so maybe there is no need to read into that post of a statement more than it was?

Now I feel very similar.

This can very well go above $50k, and maybe hit even $100k.

The situation I am in now is quite comfortable.

Good that you are comfortable, generally.

If it goes down too much, I have the funds to strengthen my position (my DCA's will buy more coins) or the stomach to watch what'll happen next without losing my mind. This is all because I am not over invested.

You might be slightly over-invested.. but sure, I understand that sometimes people might invest a bit more than others and still be within a wide range of reasonableness.

If it goes up, well it is just party time.

I remember it like yesterday I was thinking about buying from $5k but didn't want to. (actually I bought quite a lot from $5k, but what I really mean, I could have bought a lot more) Of course I am not happy with that decision now.

Why am I not going all in? Risk management. I need my sanity too when it reaches $100k.  Grin

I'll just follow the plan I made when I started this journey. Not going to change plans constantly, from my experience, I can say It always ends badly.

I thought that you post began badly.. but overall, you seem to be in a pretty decent place, and perhaps, since you are somewhat over-invested, from my perspective, you will feel more comfortable not to have to FOMO chase the BTC price up.  On the other hand, you will still be kind of ready to buy more BTC in case the BTC price goes below certain price thresholds that you determine to be comfortable for yourself.
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July 24, 2019, 09:29:45 PM

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

The latter.

We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.

You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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July 24, 2019, 09:42:44 PM

Thirty nine degrees
BBQ, salmon papillon, rosé wine!!!!
HODLers life I guess




Now into drunk and midweek HODLsleep...... b00ze and wine got me good! Roll Eyes


One day I Will master this haiku stuf.
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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July 24, 2019, 09:45:46 PM

BtF***ingw

Whats the price, did’t check that sh*t for hours..... made me think, I can eat a Peach for hours, from which movie did that line come from..... its a bit older but amazing movie Smiley
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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July 24, 2019, 09:52:34 PM

Btw I thing my friend told me at 350-ish = he Said imagine this thing could rise crazy high with only a 10% chance of succeeding.... Then you must invest, and for him the % of success where much higher but nontheless imo you already should invest with thinking this.... might be b00ze talking now, and F*** mindrust go all-in bro, be more happy with your wealth in BTC as in crypto especially when there are no unexpected costs looking around the corner....

Goodnight!

HODL tight with me, be drunk with me on a F***ing Wednesday Cheesy lol

Looking forward to tomorrow have 2 big things on shedule, 1 requires a HAT change (only for a few hours, 15K Will be back same day Smiley ) !!!!!!   
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July 24, 2019, 10:04:36 PM




BSV 14000 tps
Komodo 10000 tps
Xem 4000 tps
Eos 3000 tps
Xrp 1500 tps
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