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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21335422 times)
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JayJuanGee
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July 23, 2019, 09:54:16 PM

This is fine... ain't it?

Just imagine if $10K would hold until Q4. Yeah.

The willingness to get back over $10,000 once we briefly dip below is again very bullish.
I think I know what’s going to happen in this cycle but I wish I had a fucking crystal ball to confirm it.

Right now it’s all about patience & accumulating whilst it’s still semi affordable really.

Roll on 2021-22.

Yup. Lots of things can happen on the way to 2021-22. Hodling is way easier seeing healthy prices even if the end result is probably the same.

I can sit pretty comfortably on my stash at around this prices.... for many years. Just don't give me $50K/$100K too soon/fast or I will be forced to sell more than I would want along the way.

I know that some of us were arguing that $50k and $100k were close to the same in terms of likelihood, but they surely don't seem to be the same in terms of feelings about an amount - especially if many of us have average buy prices for our BTC that is below $2k and many even below $1k.

So yeah, I know that factually $100k is only a doubling of $50k, but still seems to have a decent amount of significance, even if a person might only be holding in the 10BTC to 30BTC territory.

Anywhooooo...    I hope that you, bitserve, have narrowed down your plan a bit better in terms of how much you are distinguishing what you might with a quick $50k price versus a quick $100k price.

I also understand how getting to either price "quickly" could cause you to sell moar, this time, because it is likely to seem unsustainable, especially if we get to either of those price points quickly.. which would be getting to either of those price points prior to 2021, right?  or prior to mid-2020... which would also cause feelings of BTC price over-exuberance, no?
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July 23, 2019, 09:55:02 PM

Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.
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July 23, 2019, 10:48:19 PM

This is fine... ain't it?

Just imagine if $10K would hold until Q4. Yeah.

I don't disagree with your overall sentiment.

Usually if we are talking price, then it would be a range, and let's just take our current low of $9,049 as the bottom, and if $10k is in the middle of the range, then I am happy with that kind of ranging between $9k and $11k.

Your thinking seems a bit more optimistic to suggest a bottom that is above $10k... surely, that would be an even better scenario, and I would be quite content, even if between now and the end of the year brought us BTC prices that ranged between $10k and $11.5k.  

Given some of our recent BTC price movements, and even the seeming excitement of institutional investors and decently good newses surrounding the space, I am having my doubts that such BTC price stability could play out for so long.  We already have one month of consolidation under our belt, and until the end of the year would bring us to about 6 months.    Yeah...  we have seen decently long periods of consolidation in the past with a narrowing and narrowing and narrowing of the ranging and that kind of narrowing of the range could take us to the end of the year, and we would end up experiencing a BTC price stability situation that would end up being quite resembling of the first 5 months of 2016 and adding on the last month or two of 2015 from the early November 2015 peak of $504...... our break out above $500 had happened in the very last weekend of May 2016.

I am not so naive as to think that $10K is now a bottom. It isn't. It will probably be breached up and down many times. But I do like current dynamics and if it were to keep going the same until Q4... well, that could be a thing.

Fair nuff.  

It seems that I may have mischaracterized your earlier assertion of hope as if you were making a BTC price prediction, which I had not meant to do, but those were the words that came out of my keyboard.

My fault.

Fucking keyboard has a mind of its own, sometimes. dammit.  Note to selfie: watugonnadu when more WO OGs start concluding u r bot?.
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July 23, 2019, 10:52:10 PM

I learned basic on a TRS-80 and later owned a TRS-80 model II with an 8 inch floppy.

Ain't nobody got a bigger floppy than you xhomerx.
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July 23, 2019, 10:52:51 PM

Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.

4k to 14k in 3 months is indeed unhealthy.  But so is 20k to 6k in a few months.  

Many of the biggest stated misgivings were often about excessive price volatility. If price stayed around (+/-5%) 10k until 2021,  might that improve adoption ?
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July 23, 2019, 10:59:58 PM

This thread is more dead than r0ach’s sex life recently

Which is a good thing. I love how $10K is now a meh thing. That helps consolidation in the long term.

I remember a time of low 3 digits, where both advocates and trolls would laugh (heartily) on this very forum at the notion of Bitcoin hitting $10K, much less hovering there near a stable price. It seemed like a pipe dream to almost everyone.

Now it's here. In just a few years after. Which means that it's no only achievable to go much higher, but everyone has set their expectations way too low.

Actually, I recall having some arguments with you torque in which you were way more conservative than me regarding how long or how far you expected BTC prices to go up or what was even possible with bitcoin.. Those arguments between you and me happened in 2015 and even extending into 2016 when you would have thought that many of us should have become somewhat more optimistic about possible future price rises for bitcoin.

I personally recall myself continuing to express highside possibilities, even during bad price times, but assigning decently low probabilities to some of the upside possibilities until after certain thresholds were reached and breached first... so you definitely should be including yourself in that group of pessimists and likely in the group that was more skeptical than the rest (perhaps not as far as being a bear, but sometimes I surely wondered about the extent of your negativism that resulted in your placing decently sized limitations on how far you expected to be within reasonable upside possibilities for bitcoin).
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July 23, 2019, 11:06:09 PM

Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.

Huh?  You expect that we are going back to a bear market, already?  Early 2018 was the beginning of a bear market.  Some of us just did not realize it until about mid-November 2018.

Seems that our current situation is not really too comparable to early 2018, so you are throwing in quite the zinger with that kind of attempted comparison.

Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.

4k to 14k in 3 months is indeed unhealthy.  But so is 20k to 6k in a few months.  

Many of the biggest stated misgivings were often about excessive price volatility. If price stayed around (+/-5%) 10k until 2021,  might that improve adoption ?

No.  That is a bunch of bullshit to attempt to ascribe unrealistic scenarios onto bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not likely to be stable until it reaches gold market cap parity minimum, but likely bitcoin is going to need about 5x to 10x of gold's market cap before it begins to even come close to reaching some kind of meaningful price stability.

In other words, we are way too damned early to even expect something that is not likely to be in bitcoin's cards, and who gives any shits about what is being projected upon bitcoin in terms of "what bitcoin needs."  To run the risk of repetition: I would ascribe "price stability" as unrealistic expectations that frequently comes from disingenuous folks, not folks who really understand where we are at with bitcoin in terms of our early adoption stage.
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July 23, 2019, 11:20:46 PM

Observing back under 5-dig

Highly time for HODLsleep .......
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July 23, 2019, 11:43:44 PM

Is Pieter Wuille a Jew?  Or does he just look identical to Karl Marx for no reason?  I'm guessing he doesn't identify as one, but might have partial Jewish ancestry.  The fact that he's involved in the creation of (((Blockstream))) is my main concern, when LN is just an exact replica of the banking system that already exists - a flat out permissioned ledger where every transaction will be routed through a bank.  Even if he's not consciously part of such a scheme to try and enslave the goyim, the self-chosenites like Larry Summers will attempt to fund and elevate people from the evil cult of Judaism into positions of power on purpose.

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July 23, 2019, 11:49:22 PM

Observing back under 5-dig

Highly time for HODLsleep .......
What a bummer, last time I checked tonight it was like 10,200 now I check and it's down $400 bucks. I need the price to stick above that 5 digit line.
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July 23, 2019, 11:57:21 PM

And why are the transaction fees up again??

Because BTC devs have imposed an economically-ignorant centrally-planned production quota upon transaction throughput capacity, which is insufficient to meet current natural demand.

It's not possible for a fee market to exist without artificial scarcity of block size, which is reason #5002 why all craptocurrencies are garbage and metals are superior.  None of the economics make any sense unless you're into being held hostage and gouged by a cartel who artificially control it's parameters.  There is definitely nothing free market about it.  As for things like the Monero 'adapative' block size, I kinda see it as the equivalent of building a motorcycle with no governer that can go 1000 MPH.  It wrecks and blows up as soon as you try 1 GB blocks in the real world while trying to outsource the system's waste as a tragedy of the commons mechanic.
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July 24, 2019, 12:08:23 AM

I have a question for you guys regarding an event that was mentioned about 3/4 of the way through the below-linked Rabbit hole recap episode:

https://overcast.fm/+KiHrLzrpw

They said something about a coordinated effort to buy bitcoin at midnight UT on this coming saturday.

I was planning to participate in this event and to market buy a relatively small amount of BTC at whatever the fuck price is then happening, but I could not find any further information about the buy/pump bitcoin event.

Anyone heard about this or have further information?  If I cannot find any widespread publicity then I might not do it or if I do do it, then I will just buy a smaller amount than I originally intended.  Otherwise if the event is more widely publicized then I might buy a larger amount (out of taking one for the team support) in order to support/promote the idea  of the event.,. which is to pump bitcoin at a specific time... just for LOLs.

I would stay away from this.

Firstly, we don't know who is organizing this or how deep his pockets. If he is trying to get public attention, it won't work. To move btc for like $200 on stamp, you'll need like 350 btc.

Maybe I would watch it just for the fun but joining is a no no.

I just found this:

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/USD

Might become helpful later. It basically says, to move BTC for $150 you'll need like 2k bitcoins.  Cool

I liked this website so much this is the real wall observer!

O.k.  Fair enough.  

I would not have given the matter even a second thought; however, th tales from the crypt podcast is pretty credible, and they were saying that they were planning on doing it.  But if I merely market buy .01BTC or some small amount, then it should not matter too much, I suppose.

Doesn't matter to me either way, and I am not really worried about the matter being a scam because we would just be buying bitcoin, not sending money or bitcoin to anyone besides sending to ourselves, and if the BTC price subsequently falls by $1k or more, we just have to wait it out for the price to come back up, which is likely to happen sooner or later, so I figure, no skin off of my back, either way.

I did end up following through with this buying of BTC at midnight UT on saturday/sunday in a decently modified way, and I am glad that I did not carry it out within the parameters of my initial intention which would have been to market buy the amount that I had decided to set aside for such purposes.

About 12 hours in advance I decided not to market buy, but instead to set buy orders before midnight UT on saturday/sunday and to more or less double the amounts of BTC that I was going to buy.  So even though I was not buying the BTC with market orders, I would still be contributing to the cause in a style that was more in my interest.

If you recall at midnight UT on saturday/sunday, BTC's market price pumped above $11k, and seemed to be with no end in sight.   I had pretty much put my BTC buy orders at $10,200-ish and $10,400-ish.  I got the extra money immediately onto the exchanges, and I pretty much got the extra money by canceling my BTC buy orders that I had set in the mid $3k BTC price territory.  

I figure that I was not really prejudicing myself from being able to buy BTC in the mid-$3ks because if BTC prices go back down to mid-$3ks, then I should have a decent amount of time to make arrangements to be able to have that money available that I decided to use to buy BTC in the supra $10k arena.  

Even though the BTC price is currently testing support in the sub $10k levels, and the way the current momentum is going, we could be testing lower $9ks within the near future, I feel much better making my buy BTC buy orders at $600 to $800 lower than BTC's surpa $11k market price that was taking place at midnight UT on saturday/sunday.  Surely, I don't need to feel any angst regarding throwing in my support to follow a cause that was not even mine and was kind of questionable in nature, because I created BTC buy parameters that I adopted to become my own and I believe to have been well within my psychological and financial comfort levels - even though currently, those buys are currently in the red.. and maybe could even take several years before they become profitable on paper... doubtful, but surely possible within reasonable parameters.
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July 24, 2019, 12:12:03 AM

OUCH!
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no FOMO


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July 24, 2019, 12:22:42 AM

are we rich yet?
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July 24, 2019, 12:23:26 AM
Last edit: July 24, 2019, 12:34:38 AM by realr0ach

OUCH!

Why are you acting surprised when any fool can look at the charts and see every movement upwards from $4000 was a completely non-aggregate, cliff face rise manipulation originating from a single entity?  It was like a classic, textbook pump and dump ending with a double top.  When the entire movement was artificial, it could implode to $6k or full retrace all the way back to $4k again and none of it would be surprising when it was all an illusion in the first place.

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July 24, 2019, 12:25:55 AM

are we rich yet?
A lot more richer than we were back in November, things go up and down a bit but this cycle moves on and upward with time.
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July 24, 2019, 12:34:20 AM

are we rich yet?

Albercombe: Is that you?
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July 24, 2019, 12:38:07 AM

Looks like it's time to Troff Tron

(Wonder how many people will get that without googling)

 I learned basic on a TRS-80 and later owned a TRS-80 model II with an 8 inch floppy.  Got it from a local doctor who had upgraded his office computer and was going to throw it out!  Ah the good ol' days.
 

still have my trs-80 model I with level 2 roms and the expansion interface. and a lnw-80 computer (more or less a trs-80 clone on steroids). between them they have 5x5.25" and 2x8" drives but they havent been run since the 80s. i hope to get them running again as a winter project. maybe.
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July 24, 2019, 12:40:34 AM

In any normal world without completely rigged, Judeo-financial markets, the price of silver and gold probably would have doubled today when the Jewish banks themselves admit the dollar is toilet paper:

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July 24, 2019, 12:51:51 AM
Last edit: July 24, 2019, 01:07:44 AM by JayJuanGee

I have been having some troubles with the seemingly cancelling of BTC buy/sell orders on one of my exchanges.

Either I don't put the BTC buy or sell order through properly, or sometimes such orders are cancelling before they execute/fill (maybe by the algorithm or whatever the fuck you call that software that is running on the exchange and preserving my orders?).

So, yeah, jeez.  

I saw that I had one of my BTC buy orders that did not fill that should have had filled, and in order to compensate for that seeming mistake, and based on the current momentum, I changed buy amounts and increments for three of my buy orders in order to attempt to properly stagger them out, while attempting to take advantage of what seems to be current momentum and likelihoods (absent a sudden spring back, which I know could happen, also).... Anyhow, what I am trying to say is that I would not mind filling one or two of those newly established buy orders in order to make up for the damned mistaken cancelled one.. that I just discovered...

So, yeah, usually I do not wish for down, and frequently, I will berate and hassle any guys (or perhaps gal) who makes such down wishes, but holy moley, when a guy (or a gal if it were to be possible?) has BTC buy orders that are both really close to executing and they are making up for history that should have already taken place, then maybe a itsy bitsy teenie weenie amount of down wishing is acceptable?  Common guys (and gal) ?  Accept my little down proposition on this one....

I don't want to disclose the exact amount of the down for what I am wishing or the exact exchange that this is on since I fear that some bullwhales could purposefully come in just because they hate me very very much and come in and personally sabotage me, but I will disclose that we are surely within double digits of reaching my next buy orders..... so... .. I won't belittle myself too much more than I already have by begging any further....   Wink  I got my begging limits.   Lips sealed

Edit: I will provide a further disclosure that is likely against my best interests, but it could be helpful to other guys (and perhaps gal) regarding how I specifically think about adjusting my order increments when a screw up like this happens.  For the record, in this phase,  I had buy orders that were about every $200, so when one of my upper buy orders had not executed, then that price had already past, but another dynamic that was going on was that my other already set buy order was only within about $23 of filling, but had not filled, so what I ended up doing, was I cancelled the order that was within $23 of filling, and I also cancelled the next buy order that would have been $200 down from that order, and then I took the total amount of fiat that was in my account that was "available" for trade (meaning not locked up), and I divided that amount by 3. 

Therefore, my next three revised buy orders are now $150 apart from one another, rather than $200 apart from one another (and even the 4th order which would have been $200 down from the 3rd order, ends up being only $150 apart between the 3rd and the 4th orders).  My first order ended up being about $40 higher than where my $23 within filling had been placed, so that order ends up being about $17 higher than what is the current low on that particular exchange).  So it should be easier to fill the 1st order and the second order is only $110 lower than what the previously highest unfilled order, so given recent momentum both the first and the second orders should not be too difficult to fill - except for the odd chance that no moar down is coming.

TLDR:  Waiting........ waiting.....   
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