Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

https://twitter.com/JTasioulas/status/1321409453489606660

He looks like a nice chap. Wonder where he comes from. Originally. Ardfork or Ardgay no doubt one of those. oh I know must be Backside, Aberdeenshire.

[1714638624]

1714638624

[1714638624]

1714638624

[1714638624]

1714638624

[1714638624]

1714638624

[El duderino_]

Stay above the 13 mark !

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we had a correction after bouncing off the resistance of 2019's high... currently $13013USD/$17279CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Right back down to where we were yesterday. Sigh.

The battle for $13k is obviously a long way from being won. Go Bitcoin go.

don't sell prematurely unnecessarily

ftfy

[friends1980]

I'm schocked about Swiss cocaine abuse.

Let's invest some BTC in evaporation ponds in Holland and Switzerland. Who's in?



Sarcasm disclaimer: in the picture above, salt is shown, not coke. It's not in Switzerland or Holland either but in Portugal. Tough luck.

[Last of the V8s]

[cAPSLOCK]

We are testing both ends of it.

Isn't this so much more fun though?  Than the last f*&*^ 3 years?

And I keep saying it... the more reasonable the rise, the more sustainable it is.  I would say we need to get used to this sort of thing for about a year!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I'm schocked about Swiss cocaine abuse.

LFC_Bitcoin’s house - 99.12

[friends1980]

(...) by believing (or, even better, understanding) the tech and the mathematics & science involved. (...)

... and libertarianism.

[fillippone]

Nice post fillippone. Did I light up your bracelet? Does it flash when double merited?

Of course, it flashed and vibrated when you merited me(single merit, not double), and again when you mentioned me.
You actually sent a double thrill on my body.

My body is ready. (also for this)

[El duderino_]

[Torque]

HoDLing Bitcoin and getting rich because of it is not luck.

Luck is when you buy a lottery ticket for $2 and win millions.
Luck is when your father is Jeff Bezos.
Luck is when you inherit some lost uncle's fortune.
Luck is when you happen to be outside when the building collapses.

When you are a normal person, with a normal job, and you risk investing your savings (which took years of hard work to accumulate) in Bitcoin, and slowly build up your stash by adding to it whenever you can, and HoDLing strong through years-long bear periods, all because you believe in what Bitcoin stands for, and see how disruptive and revolutionary this thing is, and then it goes to the moon and you become "fuck you" rich, then, no, it's not luck! It's using your brain and your ability to see the future, not because of some supernatural ability, but by believing (or, even better, understanding) the tech and the mathematics & science involved.

This is who you are, HoDLers:



Edit: Corrected typos.

The thing that really gets my goat (annoys me): being called "lucky" by the few friends of mine who know that I hold btc, the same friends who I told about btc years ago and who decided to invest.....nothing.

If they could understand (or even care to listen), they would learn that there is nothing lucky about sending most of your net worth to a random bank account in Japan (Mt. Gox) not knowing if you'll ever see it again, hodling through multi-year deep bear markets, watching your net worth collapse before your eyes, knowing that it could be years before recovery. That kind of hodling requires a strength of mind infrequently seen amongst contemporaries, coupled with an understanding of btc fundamentals and a realisation of its potential to disturb global finance.

So, if anyone calls you "lucky" for having bought bitcoin and profited, just smile, knowing inwardly that having come through the great bear markets means you're one of the most resilient of them all, and one of the most deserving. Btc rewards those who stay the course.

Congratulations fellow btc adventurers - our time is just beginning. And don't feel bad about taking a little profit here and there. You deserve it.

Fuck yeah!

In my lifetime, I have encountered essentially 3 types of people when it comes to investing.

1) People that will never invest in anything. These are your family members, friends, colleagues, etc. that whenever the topic of investing comes up, constantly moan about "Shudda bought Apple back in the day", "Shudda bought Microsoft 30 years ago", "Shudda bought Netflix back in the day", "Shudda bought Amazon", "Shudda bought Tesla", and on and on. They moan about missing this boat or that boat. They lack the conviction, the funds (savings), or both to actually research and invest in something. All the while, they continue to make themselves more poor by buying little useless trinkets, clothes, jewelry, alcohol, drugs, food at restaurants, lavish vacations, things for their car/house, etc. instead of actually investing. They nickel and dime their lives away. They barely have any savings at all. They will call any true hodler that got wealthy "lucky".

2) People that get the "investing bug", but are really just glorified day tarders. They put the minimal amount into a hot, trending stock or asset, and will hodl for all of about a month or two. Or mere weeks. Once the investment goes up 10-20% they sell everything, or if it goes down 5-10% they panic sell everything. Some will do this only once or twice, and with either a small profit or loss, will go back to normal life and declare that "investing is not for them". Others however will be gluttons for punishment, and will do this over and over, eventually losing everything. These people could be your family members or friends as well.

3) True investment hodlers. That would be us, the people you described above. This is a VERY small club. The people in it have balls of steel and bat for the moon. They will DCA in, buy every significant dip, and hodl for years and years. Your friends, family, colleagues, etc. are almost never in this club.

[machasm]

ah the whales and their following newbs.
Bouncing the price around.
Don't they know that it is all fruitless. King Corn reigns supreme and will eventually eat them all.
Maybe they just like splashing around in the baby pool?

[yslyv]

No matter what they do, BITCOIN is the original one. The rests are all imitations. No matter what happens all the rest is going to be in the shadow of bitcoin.

IN BITCOIN WE TRUST!!! 

[JSRAW]

An Honest ad from your democratic party spokesperson

@nutildah please ignore it 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Tuesday 5th May 2020 - WO BTC millionaire tracker.

112.93 BTC to have $1,000,000 USD right now.

It’s been a while gentlemen

Look how much it’s come down since May


Sunday 23rd August 2020 - WO BTC millionaire tracker.

86.3425138450221 BTC to have $1,000,000 USD right now.

It’s that time again gentlemen -

Wednesday 7th September October 2020 - WO BTC millionaire tracker.

93.7434 BTC to have $1,000,000 USD right now.

It’s that time again gentlemen -

Wednesday 28th October 2020 - WO BTC millionaire tracker.

76.24048995188463 BTC to have $1,000,000 USD right now.


Look at the BTC/USD value now compared with May ^^

[philipma1957]

I quote this from my difficulty thread as the moderator may delete it.

Today btc is down.  For a trader it may be good or bad depending on his bets.
For a hodler it is a buy the dip chance.

For me I now earn more btc mining eth at nicehash then I did yesterday. So it is a hedge for me.

It always allows me to continue my fun buy and hold at PayPal as I will buy $20 more on my PayPal account.

I think the majority of the first S19 batches are already online and have been for a month or so. I could be wrong, but I don't think there will be any more coming online till January now.

I can't complain, this means we have about 8 weeks of good profitability regardless of what the price might or might not do, this should make up a bit for all the losses which many of us have been facing with the 17 series gears. .

Current difficulty status

Current Pace:   88.2848%  (1311 / 1484.97 expected, 173.97 behind)
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11
Next Difficulty:   between 17688830739610 and 17942127621555
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.5441% and -10.2774%
Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 5:34 PM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 8:42 AM  (in 5d 7h 38m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 2:10 PM  (in 5d 13h 5m 31s)

BTC price is making new highs, currently at $13777, which is great, if we break that 14k level, we should head straight to 16k, with difficulty dropping >10% is just too good to be true as Phil said.

Yeah I can sell a bit today and hedge if it crashes .
What is Nice is if it goes up I also do okay.
Since I earn more which makes up for the sale.

Concededly, I am NOT mining, so I do not have the same kinds of "hands on" and personal experience as you guys, yet I am having some troubles understanding the degree to which any kind of meaningful changes in mining difficulty are taking place.  When I look at the difficulty measurements, I mostly see minor fluctuations, especially if such measurements are made over each of the adjustment periods.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

So, currently, the difficulty estimator is showing that the next adjustment of difficulty is currently projected to be down about 5.91% in 5 days and 8 hours.... and I know that those projections can end up changing, too.. but even if such downward difficulty projection plays out, it still keeps difficulty higher than it was 4 adjustments back - on 9/7.

From a non-miner perspective, the adjustments to difficulty do not seem to be very great, significant or material, even if miners are reporting on the ground that these kinds of adjustments have a lot of meaningful impact on their own profitability - coupled with short-term UPpity BTC price moves?

Miners have to micro manage.

Forget all costs except power.  Power is paid in cash not BTC.

Monthly bills are common

So a 2 week difficulty is about 1/2 of your bill time.

Next jump is -10% and it lasts for 14 or even as much as 16 days if it is a big drop.
Since we know that rainy season prices ended for power in China the jump after this one will be -3 to +3 (estimate)

I know 28-32 days of good difficulty are coming.  I can micromanage those days. I can turn an almost certain profit for that time period.
In my case I am a 4 man team with a small team. On great months we make 8000 a month on shit months we make 2000 a month.

That is usd profit. Last month we made 2600 usd.
The projected profit based on difficulty will be 1.1 x 1.03 = 1.133 x 1 higher than last month.

This allows me a cash out choice of 345 worth of coin into fiat

2600 x 1.113 = 2945

2945-2600 = 345   and be cashed and we can still hodl the same 2600 usd worth of coin we held last month.

What kills miners is over expanding and not hodling some of the profit.

I always need to study my:
 
cash
coins
gpus
asics
debt

 vs the diff the next 2 diff and the current price along with 20% lower price and 20% higher price.

This lets me know if I need to sell some coin buy some gear sell some gear.

Look at a model with 8k a month for 12 months = 96k
Look at a model with 2k a month for 12 months = 24k

play with debt number.
play with diff number.

We have some time had 6 months of flat diff = good time to expand your mining gear

[jojo69]

WHAT IS THIS ?!

A PDUMP FOR ANTS ?!???

[Chalkbot]

Holy shit, you guys are still here? Amazing. Haven't checked bitcointalk in years.

[OutOfMemory]

$14000 in one hour

There is no to little resistance left between $14k and $20k.

If Bitcoin breaks $14k this week ore this month it will blast straight to $20k like a boss.

ATH will be reached at the end of this year ore first month(s) of 2021.

i'd say (as i did before) Q1 2021 will break the ole ATH.
Once 20k is broken, FOMO might kick in  

Quite reserved, OOM... what's up like dat?

It's just my uhm... opinion, man 
Sometimes, or more often than not, i try to be not too overly optimistic, just to be surprised even more if i was wrong. In a positive way 
You may recognize that i'm not even slightly pessimistic as well 

[OutOfMemory]

Holy shit, you guys are still here? Amazing. Haven't checked bitcointalk in years.

& you seem you have had the same password all those years   
watch out 

I always appreciate it when old members suddenly appear out of nowhere. Like ancient druids dripping in at stonehenge the day before full moon.