Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

tl;dr It is quite possible to see a bigger bull run than we expect, like 2017's Autumn 6x. So, my price tag for selling something this year will be between 40K and 60K. I know this sounds crazy, but it is better to be prepared than surprised selling too early, isn't it?

Of course, if you hold onto all of your BTC or you shave off a bit of your stash along the way UP, - either way could work out.

Let's say that you had a system that you were planning to sell 5% or 10% of your stash every time the BTC price doubled, once the BTC price got above a certain price point - so in terms of establishing that price point to start your selling (or shaving off), you look at your own situation, but if you believe that there might certain BTC price areas that are quickly passed through, then maybe be you would sell less in those areas (but still sell a small amount, just in case), and if you believe that there might be price areas that could be a bit of a blow off top, you might sell a bit more in those perceived blow off top areas, but again maybe not selling everything - because your time horizon is longer and you are expecting to go through another BTC cycle anyhow.

Either way, maybe you are not selling a lot of your BTC at any point, but instead you continue to sell a bit of your BTC stash at various price points along the way (whether those are 25% price appreciation points, 50% or 100% or some other needed price appreciation that causes you to shave a bit off of your stash) in order that you will not feel bad if the BTC price were to end up reversing in its direction before it reaches your upper selling price target - whether that is $47k, or $93k $242k or whatever the BTC  target that you might have to make a bit of a BIGGER sell off (if that were to happen to be your goal). 

Sure, we have discussed previously, that you might have goals to sell higher amounts such as 20% or 40% of your stash at various price points, but you still might not be planning on selling all of it at any one point, even if you might be planning to take off BIGGER amounts at various price points.

You still could arrange such BTC selling that you have a lot of BTC in any event because you would not be selling large portions of your BTC stash along the way but merely selling some of your BTC stash for a kind of insurance purposes.. So, if you have a time target to keep accumulating BTC through 2030 or some further off date like that, you might NOT be incentivized to sell large portions of your BTC stash, even if you have already been into BTC for a decent amount of time because you feel that you have not really acquired enough.. but that disincentive to sell everything still might not justify HODLING onto everything and NOT selling any BTC - which surely has worked for some people just to HODL through the volatile periods because there HODL period is at least 4 more years into the future.. and of course, the longer the timeline the more justification for just HODLing through it all (and skipping any shaving off, however tempting that might be).

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[Karartma1]

I know this is impossible, but I would like to know what Hal Finney would think of the overall Bitcoin situation, exchanges, forks, asics farms, long shorts, bets

Me too.

I know one thing, even though Satoshi thought through a lot of variables and possibilities, I doubt that he/they envisioned bullshit forks persisting and hanging around indefinitely.

Did Finney or Nakamoto ever mention such an event/situation as a market for forks? 2 sMerit to the first finder of a quote.

Both satoshi and Hal would have been disgusted by the whole bcash, bsv, bgold, bdiamond, bwhatever etc. Those mutant coins need to be treated like toxic waste, no more no less. And never forget, if you haven't been smart enough they could represent a huge privacy leak about your real BTC. You guys are savvy enough to know what I am talking about.

@AlcoHoDL
It's always great to read your explanations! My only concern would be if the thief is smart enough to torture a bitcoiner to the point of having him to release the full passphrase. This is so scary to even think.

[ivomm]

tl;dr It is quite possible to see a bigger bull run than we expect, like 2017's Autumn 6x. So, my price tag for selling something this year will be between 40K and 60K. I know this sounds crazy, but it is better to be prepared than surprised selling too early, isn't it?

Of course, if you hold onto all of your BTC or you shave off a bit of your stash along the way UP, - either way could work out.

Let's say that you had a system that you were planning to sell 5% or 10% of your stash every time the BTC price doubled, once the BTC price got above a certain price point - so in terms of establishing that price point to start your selling (or shaving off), you look at your own situation, but if you believe that there might certain BTC price areas that are quickly passed through, then maybe be you would sell less in those areas (but still sell a small amount, just in case), and if you believe that there might be price areas that could be a bit of a blow off top, you might sell a bit more in those perceived blow off top areas, but again maybe not selling everything - because your time horizon is longer and you are expecting to go through another BTC cycle anyhow.

Either way, maybe you are not selling a lot of your BTC at any point, but instead you continue to sell a bit of your BTC stash at various price points along the way (whether those are 25% price appreciation points, 50% or 100% or some other needed price appreciation that causes you to shave a bit off of your stash) in order that you will not feel bad if the BTC price were to end up reversing in its direction before it reaches your upper selling price target - whether that is $47k, or $93k $242k or whatever the BTC  target that you might have to make a bit of a BIGGER sell off (if that were to happen to be your goal).  

Sure, we have discussed previously, that you might have goals to sell higher amounts such as 20% or 40% of your stash at various price points, but you still might not be planning on selling all of it at any one point, even if you might be planning to take off BIGGER amounts at various price points.

You still could arrange such BTC selling that you have a lot of BTC in any event because you would not be selling large portions of your BTC stash along the way but merely selling some of your BTC stash for a kind of insurance purposes.. So, if you have a time target to keep accumulating BTC through 2030 or some further off date like that, you might NOT be incentivized to sell large portions of your BTC stash, even if you have already been into BTC for a decent amount of time because you feel that you have not really acquired enough.. but that disincentive to sell everything still might not justify HODLING onto everything and NOT selling any BTC - which surely has worked for some people just to HODL through the volatile periods because there HODL period is at least 4 more years into the future.. and of course, the longer the timeline the more justification for just HODLing through it all (and skipping any shaving off, however tempting that might be).

Well, I actually made my own calculator based on https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-savings-plan/. It is elementary java script coding, but it gives a lot of room for experimenting. With it I can plan both sells and rebuys. For example, I can set initial sell sum, which will increase with a specified percentage (with experiments I found to fit best is like 8.2% increase of the first sale amount with every 1% increase of the price). Simultaneously, the calculator shows given percentage drop prices, say 30% below the top, so that I could rebuy with profit which is dynamically shown. My plan is to sell almost all for $6 mil, and the lower plans are used to gain like 500K profits while buyng back all of my bitcoins. I have several plans for sell/rebuys which are easily modified according to market's dynamics, so that I guarantee $1 mil, in case I fail to profit enough and rebuy (I mean I set the tag for 30% drop, but I would really like to get to 50%, which is pure greed and I can't be sure I will control this urge ). I tested it with my mined eth's and it definitely works well, although I have no plans of rebuying that shitcoin again, just for the experiment.

Edit. To minimize the effect of the greed while rebuying, I set in the calculator automated price drops 30-50% with the same increasing percetage (like the mentioned above 8%) for the rebuying sums. I have a desparate need for 200K-500K villa with a pool at the sea beach The remaining money I don't mind keeping in bitcoins, hopefully near the same amount as of now if the rebuy thing goes well. The next eventual sells/rebuys will be used for setting a new lifestyle so that I can trust myself more and then leave my job without the fear of losing all on failing bussiness, whores, whatever.

[JayJuanGee]

2020 (Halving): $8500
2020 (EOY): $13,000 <-- Predicted
2021 (Q4): $30,000 <-- Predicted

I find the above SOMA predictions quite conservative.

Of course, these predictions are bearish, but, frankly, I'm OK with them. $30k in 2021 will enable me to make a few major changes to my life.

Somehow, though, I believe we will far exceed those numbers, and the above post will become meme material.  

In my experience, it has become easier to feel that you are exceeding expectations if the expectations are not set too high.  I don't see any problem with those numbers, even though 6% per year, would be an even lower return.

Let's do 10% per year to somewhat account for the shrinking value of the dollar, so if I add 10% each year then I get:

Today: $10,350.00
September 2021 = $11,385.00
September 2022 = $12,523.50
September 2023 = $13,775.85
September 2024 = $15,153.44


My numbers are more conservative than yours..    Call me a bear.

Of course, I could pick a bit higher numbers in order to account for our ongoing concerns that the dollar will continue to shrink in value, yet my point is that if we have conservative expectations, then there are better chances that BTC will outperform those expectations and also BTC has historically outperformed other assets too, so I do not see any reason to underinvest in BTC based on either historical performance or even future expectations - even if plugging in conservative numbers for where expecting to be in the future and to attempt to plan around that and to tweak such expectations along the way.

Right now, our 200 week moving average is at almost $6,650, so if I am planning on entering in to fuck you status, I probably should be using something conservative, like the 200 week moving average as my calculating base.... and sure, let's go all liberal and anticipate at minimum a 10% increase in the 200 Week moving average each year for the upcoming 4 years.  

Today's 200 week moving average: $6,650.00
September 2021 = $7,315.00
September 2022 = $8,046.50
September 2023 = $8,851.15
September 2024 = $9,736.27

Of course, if the 200 week moving average moves up in the coming years at a rate that is faster than 10% per year, then I can use those new numbers in terms of calculating whether i have reached enough wealth to enter into fuck you status (within the bounds of my targets).

Recall that in about September 2017 (3 years ago), when BTC was preparing to enter into its 6x price rise around that time, as Ivomm mentioned, the 200 week moving average was just getting above $800, so anyone that was planning on entering into fuck you status in September 2017-ish, should have been using around $800 as the value of wealth guide to determine if they had enough value in BTC to enter into fuck you status.  Of course, entering into fuck you status would not only be based on the value of BTC, but the BTC calculation should have been using something close to the $800-ish valuation for determining value, and since the BTC price did get up to nearly $20k, there could have been some shaving off of BTC in order to convert those BTC into higher than $800 valuations per each one  (I will note that it appears that by mid December 2017, BTC's 200 week moving average had moved close to $1,300, so in BTClandia, the 200 week moving average has not been exactly a stagnant concept.. and it has continued to move up).  

So, shouldn't all of us BTC HODLers be feeling somewhat good regarding how the seeming bottom of our BTC floor price keeps moving up?  because the next approximately 3 years between September 2017 and present, BTC's 200week moving average has gone from $800 to $6,650.  That is quite amazing to have gotten about an 8x increase in our BTC bottom which would be used to calculate the amount of BTC in order to enter into fuck you status... so if any of us are preferring to keep a certain amount (or most of it) in BTC, then we should appreciate that the 200 week moving average keeps moving up at a pretty decent pace that seems to be faster than the cost of living and faster than any other meaningful asset class that we might consider investing into.

@AlcoHoDL
It's always great to read your explanations! My only concern would be if the thief is smart enough to torture a bitcoiner to the point of having him to release the full passphrase. This is so scary to even think.

Once you have created a wallet with a passphrase, you are not limited to just one passphrase.

Not saying that any of us has 100 BTC to throw around, but if anyone were to have 100 BTC, as in AlcoHoDL's example, they could have 10 BTC in the no passphrase wallet, and they could have another 10 BTC in a decoy passphrase and they could have the remaining 80 BTC in another wallet or even divide the remaining 80 BTC into a couple of other wallets, each with a different passphrase.  So, sure, the wrench attacker could just keep beating until he believes he got everything or that he at least got enough... will the beatings stop?  who knows?

We might have to use smaller hypotheticals just to help to ensure that the beatings are going to stop.  So we might say.  Let's say that the BTC holder has 1 BTC, then divide into 4 or 5 passphrase wallets.  Will the beatings stop because the attacker thinks that you have 100 BTC, and you only have 1 BTC divided into several parts.  How plausible is such plausible deniability could be a life and death question - hoping that none of us keeps that kind of company. 

[Globb0]

Ooo look another fun visualiser


https://txstreet.com/v/bch-btc

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Well, I actually made my own calculator based on https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-savings-plan/. It is elementary java script coding, but it gives a lot of room for experimenting. With it I can plan both sells and rebuys. For example, I can set initial sell sum, which will increase with a specified percentage (with experiments I found to fit best is like 8.2% increase of the first sale amount with every 1% increase of the price). Simultaneously, the calculator shows given percentage drop prices, say 30% below the top, so that I could rebuy with profit which is dynamically shown. My plan is to sell almost all for $6 mil, and the lower plans are used to gain like 500K profits while buyng back all of my bitcoins. I have several plans for sell/rebuys which are easily modified according to market's dynamics, so that I guarantee $1 mil, in case I fail to profit enough and rebuy (I mean I set the tag for 30% drop, but I would really like to get to 50%, which is pure greed and I can't be sure I will control this urge ). I tested it with my mined eth's and it definitely works well, although I have no plans of rebuying that shitcoin again, just for the experiment.

Edit. To minimize the effect of the greed while rebuying, I set in the calculator automated price drops 30-50% with the same increasing percetage (like the mentioned above 8%) for the rebuying sums. I have a desparate need for 200K-500K villa with a pool at the sea beach The remaining money I don't mind keeping in bitcoins, hopefully near the same amount as of now if the rebuy things goes well. The next eventual sells/rebuys will be used for setting a new lifestyle so that I can trust myself more and then leave my job without the fear of losing all on failing bussiness, whores, whatever.

Yes, if you customized your own version of such system (chart to figure out price points), then you can attempt to account for potential rebuy points, too, and surely I have been using some system very similar to that for several years.

You can see that the linked chart was "Inspired by rpietila's (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan on BitcoinTalk."  Rpietila did not advocate rebuying, but I talked about rebuying in that thread, and so of course, each of us will need to consider what we believe to be appropriate trigger points for rebuying or our willingness to just leave the sales off of the table in the event that the rebuying trigger points are not reached...

So, in that sense, I had agreed with Rpietila in regards that the emphasis should be on taking profits along the way rather than rebuying - even though some rebuying might end up happening along the way, as you seem to be setting up something to plan for that.

One of the problems, of course, with rebuying is that if BTC were to end up going to zero, then your whole systems of raking or taking profits along the way has no longer materialized because you have failed and refused to actually take profits.  That would be a potential downside in carrying out such a system that includes rebuying at various points along the way.

[ivomm]

[edited out]

Well, I actually made my own calculator based on https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-savings-plan/. It is elementary java script coding, but it gives a lot of room for experimenting. With it I can plan both sells and rebuys. For example, I can set initial sell sum, which will increase with a specified percentage (with experiments I found to fit best is like 8.2% increase of the first sale amount with every 1% increase of the price). Simultaneously, the calculator shows given percentage drop prices, say 30% below the top, so that I could rebuy with profit which is dynamically shown. My plan is to sell almost all for $6 mil, and the lower plans are used to gain like 500K profits while buyng back all of my bitcoins. I have several plans for sell/rebuys which are easily modified according to market's dynamics, so that I guarantee $1 mil, in case I fail to profit enough and rebuy (I mean I set the tag for 30% drop, but I would really like to get to 50%, which is pure greed and I can't be sure I will control this urge ). I tested it with my mined eth's and it definitely works well, although I have no plans of rebuying that shitcoin again, just for the experiment.

Edit. To minimize the effect of the greed while rebuying, I set in the calculator automated price drops 30-50% with the same increasing percetage (like the mentioned above 8%) for the rebuying sums. I have a desparate need for 200K-500K villa with a pool at the sea beach The remaining money I don't mind keeping in bitcoins, hopefully near the same amount as of now if the rebuy things goes well. The next eventual sells/rebuys will be used for setting a new lifestyle so that I can trust myself more and then leave my job without the fear of losing all on failing bussiness, whores, whatever.

Yes, if you customized your own version of such system (chart to figure out price points), then you can attempt to account for potential rebuy points, too, and surely I have been using some system very similar to that for several years.

You can see that the linked chart was "Inspired by rpietila's (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan on BitcoinTalk."  Rpietila did not advocate rebuying, but I talked about rebuying in that thread, and so of course, each of us will need to consider what we believe to be appropriate trigger points for rebuying or our willingness to just leave the sales off of the table in the event that the rebuying trigger points are not reached...

So, in that sense, I had agreed with Rpietila in regards that the emphasis should be on taking profits along the way rather than rebuying - even though some rebuying might end up happening along the way, as you seem to be setting up something to plan for that.

One of the problems, of course, with rebuying is that if BTC were to end up going to zero, then your whole systems of raking or taking profits along the way has no longer materialized because you have failed and refused to actually take profits.  That would be a potential downside in carrying out such a system that includes rebuying at various points along the way.

My principle for the rebuying is this: I sell 1 bitcoin for price 50K while I really need only 25K. Wait until price falls to 25K, buy back the 1 bitcoin and keep the rest 25K in the bank forever. If the price doesn't fall that much, well this is a calculated risk. In my case this means 1 mil total profit in the bank. Not exactly fuck you status, but still enough to change my lifestyle.

This is the main idea, but with the calculator I can set precise sells at each percentage, so that I cover events like 45K down to 22K, etc. Only when I have a new lifestyle, I will sell almost everything for 6 mil. This is my target in the ideal case for the next 20 years. Let's be alive and well of course   Here is a pic of my calculator (the rows between 1 and 2 sell are the rebuy points around 30% drop of the top, the lowest row shows the profit in $ compared with the total spent amount 494-346=148$):

[AlcoHoDL]

@AlcoHoDL
It's always great to read your explanations! My only concern would be if the thief is smart enough to torture a bitcoiner to the point of having him to release the full passphrase. This is so scary to even think.

Thanks. Yes, it's scary as hell, and you're right, it could happen. What you can do to try to circumvent this, is to have not only one, but two, or three, or more, different passphrases.

Your total stash: 100 BTC. <--- I wish!

No passphrase (plain seed): 3.7 BTC
Passphrase 1: 17.3 BTC
Passphrase 2: 79 BTC

-- Thief kidnaps you and forces you to reveal your Trezor's PIN.
-- You resist as much as you can, but eventually you reveal the PIN.
-- Thief takes the 3.7 BTC, but suspects you have an additional passphrase.
-- Thief tortures you to reveal it.
-- You endure the torture as much as you can (you must, and be prepared to take a good beating).
-- Eventually, you break down in extreme distress, and you reveal passphrase 1.
-- You repeatedly plead with the thief to let you have a few BTC, even just one.
-- Thief takes the 17.3 BTC, and notices that 17.3 + 3.7 = 21 BTC.
-- Thief thinks your total stash is the "one in a million" 21 BTC that many HoDLers aim for.
-- If you're lucky, he takes it "all" and lets you go.
-- You are left with a healthy 79 BTC, accessible using passphrase 2.

This is just one strategy that uses common thinking to try to persuade the thief that you have no more coins. Of course, the best thing to do is to try not to get into this situation in the first place. Try not to advertise your stash (obviously), and don't give away even minor hints about how many coins you have. Easier said than done though... Even the mere mention of being involved in Bitcoin, combined with a few major changes in your life (something expensive you've bought, resigning from your job, etc.) would point to a healthy Bitcoin stash. That's why I believe all those tools we have (additional passphrase, plausible deniability, Shamir's Secret Sharing, and others), can help in our attempts to circumvent unfortunate situations like the one you describe.

Bitcoin has made many of us take security matters very seriously, much more seriously than before, when banks and other financial institutions played that role. Bitcoin is cash, and has all the benefits (and drawbacks) of cash. Imagine having $1M in banknotes or gold under your bed. Wouldn't you feel stressed about it? I would. It's the same with Bitcoin, but the fact that it's not made of matter, but of information that can be stored and processed digitally, enables us to use certain tools, such as the ones mentioned earlier, to help protect our coins. "Be a bank" is revolutionary and gives us total control of our finances, but can also be a burden if we're not adequately prepared to take the responsibility and care it requires.

Stay safe, and, when it comes to Bitcoin, apply the Manhattan Project's motto:



http://exploreoakridge.com/who-were-the-calutron-girls-of-oak-ridge/

---

Edit: JayJuanGee beat me to it. Thanks Jay.

[Globb0]

the 3rd monkey is about to blow his own head off

[El duderino_]

[heslo]

Ooo look another fun visualiser


https://txstreet.com/v/bch-btc

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

Hah, pathetic. Can't wait till that bcash shitcoin dies. Yet another split incoming so I'd say it's getting close

[Cryptotourist]

I am not going to put it past you, if you are observing that certain times of the year seems to end up in higher levels of short term BTC price movements, and I would not rule out the end of the year and even beginning of the year to have that kind of a BTC price dynamic....

Yes.

And, sure another question, pass through or quickly enter and correct?

Slow and firm uptrend, spikes and corrections included.
The channel you provided ($17,250 - $23,500) is a good example, before we move on to the next.

Time will tell if your hunch for passing through that price zone is correct, or premature.

Premature, I love that word.
Followed by: sorry honey I'm not proud, sway over and we'll make the stars swing again.

There are sure a lot of crazies out there currently, and crazy people also carrying out crazy projects attempting to figure out which scammer can outdo the other in terms of scammer creativeness...

Will it implode before the end of the year, or is there additional runway for the newbies to come in and keep it going?

Newbies will always come in when inspired by FOMO.
When does human stupidity reach it's Schelling point? (don't answer that, there is an ongoing massive worldwide investigation)

This fake alt season, is designed to rekt them around the end of this year.

I am pretty sure that I had seen at least a few times that satoshi proclaimed that snake oil imitations were inevitable, even if satoshi did not get into particulars, one of the natures of any open source project is that the code can completely be copied, and satoshi surely discussed these kinds of snake oil imitation dynamics trying to mislead people away from value.

Yeah, but what can you do, other than try to educate people? Not much.

[d_eddie]

EU developments:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/leak-eu-to-create-superbody-of-watchdogs-to-oversee-digital-currencies/

Interestingly,

The rules also impose the prohibition of granting any interests to holders of these digital assets.

This would cause a huge move of btc into US-based interest-generating custodial accounts (such as blockfi and celsius, maybe even Coinbase/Kraken)

The draft text also obliges the Libra Association and the issuers other significant e-money tokens, to redeem, at any moment and at par value, the monetary value of the e-money tokens if the holders decide, either in cash or by credit transfers. The rules also impose the prohibition of granting any interests to holders of these digital assets.

In this context, it looks sane to me. Tolerably so, at least. You issue tokens, they must be backed by something.

[hv_]

EU developments:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/leak-eu-to-create-superbody-of-watchdogs-to-oversee-digital-currencies/

Interestingly,

The rules also impose the prohibition of granting any interests to holders of these digital assets.

This would cause a huge move of btc into US-based interest-generating custodial accounts (such as blockfi and celsius, maybe even Coinbase/Kraken)

The draft text also obliges the Libra Association and the issuers other significant e-money tokens, to redeem, at any moment and at par value, the monetary value of the e-money tokens if the holders decide, either in cash or by credit transfers. The rules also impose the prohibition of granting any interests to holders of these digital assets.

In this context, it looks sane to me. Tolerably so, at least. You issue tokens, they must be backed by something.

For tether, is the something what exactly?

Lol

[MFahad]

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@TheVladCostea

Decided to research Bitcoin pr0n and found this gem:

– Couple tries to buy BTC from ATM, stranger approaches them to inform that fees are too high;
– Stranger takes them to their office to sell them BTC in person.
– Boyfriend doesn't have enough money, so he trades GF for 1 BTC.

https://twitter.com/thevladcostea/status/1304756798856011777?s=21

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $10,320



Can we see $10,501 😜

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

– Boyfriend doesn't have enough money, so he trades GF for 1 BTC.

Nice trade. He can have few new ones.

[AlcoHoDL]

the 3rd monkey is about to blow his own head off

That's OK, motto still holds true (a dead monkey doesn't talk). LOL!

I wonder why they used monkeys... The girls working at Oak Ridge were lovely...

[friends1980]

@TheVladCostea

Decided to research Bitcoin pr0n and found this gem:

– Couple tries to buy BTC from ATM, stranger approaches them to inform that fees are too high;
– Stranger takes them to their office to sell them BTC in person.
– Boyfriend doesn't have enough money, so he trades GF for 1 BTC.

(...)

Not sure why he's looking so worried though. The guy just made the best investment deal in his life. Buy low. Cut expenses. Etc.

The problem with pr0n is, and always has been, its low quality script writers. Real shame.