Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

SN8 cryo header tank test completed  15km flight next couple days maybe?




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re  last hour

#dyor

#stronghands

[JayJuanGee]

technology adoption always follows a s-curve. the beginning is flat, then it becomes exponential (looks like a hockey stick) and when mass adoption occurs it shoots straight up and only starts flattening when saturated (widely adopted).


when the new tech is money the graph not only shows the adoption of users but also the value of the money.

when rockets are fired up to reach space they need to carry enough energy to overcome earths gravity. they need to acquire escape velocity.  if they don't get over this threshold they could not leave earth.

bitcoin expands in short violent run-ups followed by years of loss of value and consolidation. this circular pattern conditions bitcoin hodlers to feel bad about "not selling at the top" in order to own a lot of cash and furthermore to later buy back more bitcoin, when price reached the bottom of the cycle.

especially when reaching "life changing" or "fuck you" amounts of money. especially when the hodler realizes that he/she could have escaped the rat race with that amount of fiat. since the bear markets are usually multi year, the hodler has plenty of time to develop this regret.

it feels bad to look back to previous all-time highs and punching the numbers in a calculator and figuring out how many btc one could have bought if and only if...      but be aware that there is another feeling that is even worse: having sold to early. remember all the posts in this forum where folks argued about how rational it was to take profits and sell btc for $20. or $200 or $2000

during one of the next giant run-ups bitcoin will reach escape velocity. which means the old game of multiyear bears will not occur anymore. bitcoin will enter the steep upward phase of the s-curve.

don't be a multiyear hardened btc hodler that finally learned how to sell at an anticipated local top only to see the price never coming back. develop a strategy to avoid this worst possible outcome: a bitcoin hodler with zero bitcoin in that moment of history when bitcoin is winning. with strategy I don't mean some weird trading strategy. trading btc is a losing game for 99% of players.


the only way to make sure you always have some bitcoin is to always keep some/most bitcoin.


my own strategy is very simple: when bitcoin reaches escape velocity I want to still own at least 50% of my stash. in my mind half my stash is reserved for my descendants. they are in Uber-cold storage. I will never touch them. I will never punch them in any calculator to figure out momentary fiat value.

with the other half I may or may not try to play the "sell at top" game. not convinced yet since all I would get for my precious btc is lots of melting dirty fiat. problem is that this is the only way ever for me to acquire more btc.  maybe I should only play that game with a quarter of my stash.

what is your plan?


edited

Of course, I don't know your situation with any kind of precision, but you could still be quite well off without even selling close to 50 % of your BTC stash... Just cash out BTC from time to time whenever you might need it, and I suppose it is better if you do not have highfalutin tastes.    

I maintain a spreadsheet that I adjust from time to time based on price movements and changes to the actual quantities of my BTC stash.  Sure of course, I had to make some BIGGER adjustments to the projections based on some incidental and unintended losing of BTC along the way... but still, even my projection out to nearly 1.5 million still shows that under my current tentative plan, I would still retain nearly 82% of the quantity of BTC that I hold today... and that is kind of presuming that the BTC price shoots straight up.. which, it likely will not.  

Sure, it also presumes that I won't lose anymore which is not exactly a sure thing or that I won't shave some extra BTC off the top along the way - but even from the numbers that I am showing, I don't really see any need to be shaving extra off the top... but maybe I just have to learn to live richer and blow some BTC on higher level luxury goods.  

I think that the point that I am making is that there does not seem to be needs to sell high quantity of BTC in order to live quite well and that should be especially true with BTC HODLers that have been in the game longer and especially true if BTC does anything close to its earlier escape velocity performances.. ONLY needs to be a fraction and still cause a lot of longer term HODLers to become quite richie without any major needs to cash out large portions of their BTC stashes... my thinkening..

what is your plan?

I have little btc so I allocate a monthly amount to increase my stash no matter how high or low the price is

Of course, if you have not been into BTC for very long, then it takes longer to build the stash... So you have to keep building your stash, and then at some point you will likely realize that your stash has been built enough.

[bitebits]

<snip...strategic cashing out>

hodel is all good, but I suppose at our age, and at some point, you gotta start thinking...you can't take it with you.

Cold storage.

[explorer]

<snip...strategic cashing out>

hodel is all good, but I suppose at our age, and at some point, you gotta start thinking...you can't take it with you.

Cold storage.

Cold Dead Hands?

[JayJuanGee]

If price of btc was to be based on 2017 dec profit levels for a miner we would be at 78k

We are not in 2017.. we are still in late 2016...   What would the numbers be for late 2016... not sure, which month, but let's say about December 2016...

We reach 2017 when we breach the old ATH. that is $19,666...

We have not even come close to that, yet... but we did breach the June 2019 high.. so there is something in that.

Regarding mining.. seems like a death spiral going on... we got a 16% reduction a few days ago, and mining hashrate is still dropping and targeting another 14% drop, or so?  Go figure.

[Paashaas]

Global daily deaths at highest level, latest spike is looking scary.

Record daily cases in Russia, Switzerland, Poland, Germany, Austria, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine.

U.S reports over 100,000 cases and 1200 deaths in a singel day with 240,000 deaths in total which is pathetic, unacceptable and ridiculous at the same time.

Stay save.

[El duderino_]

Wow corn

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/mmcrypto/status/1324226968506802177?s=21

Would be a thing

[Chrystora123]

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

we're headed for $ 15k!!

Global daily deaths at highest level, latest spike is looking scary.

Record daily cases in Russia, Switzerland, Poland, Austria, Latvia and Estonia.

U.S reports over 100,000 cases and 1200 deaths in a singel day with 240,000 deaths in total which is pathetic, unacceptable and ridiculous at the same time.

Stay save.
snip..

positive COVID-19 in the US is increasing along with the general elections that are being held in the US.  European countries have also started to impose "LOCKDOWN" again..

[bitcoinPsycho]

Wednesday's love Wednesday's

Thursday's love Thursday's

[JSRAW]

Happy Thursday JJG... #nohomo

[Last of the V8s]

Should probably just blow that Parliament up. Full of middle-class bounders and cads. Ruling is for the Ruling Class, not careerist chancer nocoiners.

[Last of the V8s]

at this stage, the JSRAW innings is getting a little drawn out shall we say. He needs theymos to bowl him an easy lob, hit it for the magnificent six he so often dazzles with, and earn the legendary batsman status he so richly deserves.

[JSRAW]

Start with the house of lords.  

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Its matter of time bhai, after that even DRS can't stop the outcome let alone theymos.

[Karartma1]

Wondrous November
A major bitcoin flies high
whilst watching the blonde.

#haiku 4

[FullNode]

When Can You Use Crypto Losses as an Offset?

https://www.cryptonewsz.com/when-can-you-use-crypto-losses-as-an-offset/

The article talks about the losses but also the gains, the end of the year is approaching, bitcoin soon 15,000
Read the article

[soullyG]

A new day, a new AYH! Damn it feels good to be a Hodler 

This made me chuckle:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/jo7wuf/what_we_are_witnessing_bitcoin_do_to_the/

[JSRAW]

https://twitter.com/cryptoSqueeze/status/1324251937521373186

[vapourminer]

SN8 cryo header tank test completed  15km flight next couple days maybe?

love how that pic looks like a special effects set from some cheap 50s science fiction movie. worse, maybe.

NICE!

musk for 1st president of mars. where do i sign on.

[soullyG]

love how that pic looks like a special effects set from some cheap 50s science fiction movie. worse, maybe.

Yes, it really fits the 60's aesthetic! Just need to paint it red and we are good to go



15km hop is scheduled for Monday-Wednesday



https://twitter.com/FelixSchlang/status/1324296237487718412