This liftoff has a lot of similarity to April 2019.
In 2019 the initial pump was from about $4K to $5.2K, then continued to $13.8K.
If we literally translate %, then initial spike (from 16.69K to 21.05K) was similar-26.7% in 2019 and about 25.8% here.
In 2019 the "pump" continued for another 166%, and with similar percentages we would be at $55.8K at the "local" pre-peak this year.
That would be tremendous, but kind of high end of my expectations for this early in a bull cycle, unless this bull will be much stronger than 2019-2021.
Length-wise, if we repeat (it was 3mo minus 5-6 days in 2019), in would be over by about last week of March-first week of April.
Since March 31 is the end of Q1 and April 15-18 is a typical tax day in US (this year it is on 18th), is kind of logical to expect something in that vicinity.
I referenced this earlier re: April 2019. Also the Daily RSI is identical reaching 90. Many therefore expect price to cool off with a correction, even if short-term, but back then price merely consolidated sideways for a few weeks in order for the RSI to cool off failing to create any lower lows. It's rare that this happens in markets - oversold levels without a correction before continuation - but it is something that happens in Bitcoin, specifically during a longer-term trend reversal (much less so during bull markets ironically). There is also a distinct difference compared to the 2019 bear market ending pump. Most of the volume traded in previous years was around $6K to $8K (overhead) whereas this time most of the volume traded is around $19K to $21K where price is now, mainly due to how long price traded in this range last year. So while in short-term price may well consolidate sideways and slightly to the downside, as opposed to upside, there is little to no resistance overhead compared to in 2019.
A lot of this comes to the "fomo" of being left behind I think, which explains a lot of 2019. Once $5K was reached many weren't willing to risk waiting for a correction back down to $4K or otherwise. Similarly now while price may well re-accumulate between $19K and $21K for the coming weeks, this may also not be the case, therefore we see investors re-entering the market at continually higher levels.
Either way similar to 2019 I see the likelihood of a two-step parabolic recovery, as this would also be similar to the two-step capitulation that occurred. First from $18K to $21K that we have just witnessed, followed by a second wave taking prices above $30K from somewhere between $22K and $25K if I had to guess, wherever most people "feel" the macro lower high has been broken which remains subjective. At least now compared to last summer the volume traded around $30K - that was previously where most of the volume was based - now looks insignificant as resistance. Likewise with $40K.
Personally I think in the coming months and next year or so $30K to $50K will become a new "neutral" level, with price eventually accumulating back within it. Only above $50K I really see any significant selling occurring up to $60K if we get there in the next few months, which if 2019 is anything to go by, is not only more than possible but actually quite likely, with fib retracements still targeting that level.
For disclaimer sake I am hedging a very small position short right now with a tight stop loss above the highs, in case we see a correction back down to $18.5K or $19K, but otherwise I'm not ruling out price continuing to the upside, even if in a slightly less parabolic way (more like sideways consolidation like in April 2019). Either way I see the re-accumulation zone holding now we are firmly back in it.
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