Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

...
Perhaps 2018 is bitcoin's 1994.

...By 1998 things had changed alot.  Win 95/98 IE/Netscape made it much more useful and simple to use the internet and sites began to proliferate.  I had dropped out to take a 35k job at a search engine optimization company (which seemed like alot at the time) that quickly went out of biz, but my connections from that job led to other connections that have kept me working for the 20 years since.

tldr; if it's 1994,  buckle up, things will be unrecognizable in 4 years.

What would be our Netscape moment? Or AOL temporary dominance?
Is Lightning a.k.a Netscape (without the IPO) and is Coinbase/Binance/Bitfinex, perhaps, the AOL equivalent?
Or, would it be something else out of left field?

We need a third layer solution with a stable unit of account.  Or a way of using Lightning but pricing everything in local currrency so it is fully automated and no one has to think in BTC or Satoshis. 

[1714111189]

1714111189

[bitserve]

In terms of awareness it is probably 1998 but adoption wise it is probably around 1995 with just the university kids on the Net. Cool colleagues have just started trading crypto but the rest is still ignoring it. Some probably will the rest of their lives 

It makes sense. Almost everybody has already heard of Bitcoin the same as Internet in 95-97. But way less than 1% got/use, so it is 93-95 in that.

Also in terms of development it is like when we only had telnet, ftp, email and irc (I always considered gopher useless).... and everything was command line/shell only.

It was the development of HTPP what transformed it into something "ready" for mainstream people.

I think we still lack that "http" of Bitcoin... but LN is surely a step in the right direction.

And it was major players like AOL what helped in its adoption... I am not sure Bitcoin already have its "AOL" or if we could consider Coinbase to be the equivalent.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

...
Perhaps 2018 is bitcoin's 1994.

...By 1998 things had changed alot.  Win 95/98 IE/Netscape made it much more useful and simple to use the internet and sites began to proliferate.  I had dropped out to take a 35k job at a search engine optimization company (which seemed like alot at the time) that quickly went out of biz, but my connections from that job led to other connections that have kept me working for the 20 years since.

tldr; if it's 1994,  buckle up, things will be unrecognizable in 4 years.

What would be our Netscape moment? Or AOL temporary dominance?
Is Lightning a.k.a Netscape (without the IPO) and is Coinbase/Binance/Bitfinex, perhaps, the AOL equivalent?
Or, would it be something else out of left field?

We need a third layer solution with a stable unit of account.  Or a way of using Lightning but pricing everything in local currrency so it is fully automated and no one has to think in BTC or Satoshis. 

I actually expect the latter to happen in one form or another. The blockchain being the backbone of the financial world, but the mainstream believing that they are still using fiat. People don't like instability and uncertainty, even if it's beneficial to them.

[Last of the V8s]

I really have a man crush on your ideology Jimmie. Refreshing to know I am not alone.

Something else to ponder...This Wall we observe...this is a historical document..one wonders what will be thought about it in the future. Some of the replies and responses left here will potentially guide future generations.

Think about these things as you glibly type down what ever stray thought comes to mind. We are the forerunners of a paradigm shift in not only the world of financial markets but in the basic fundamental structure of society.

tl;dr  Raise the bar.

Why not start with yourself and leave the moralising to others till you have thought it through.

On glibness, start with yourself. Your stirring little speech coins the phrase 'to really have a man crush on s.o.'s ideology.' Glib. Let's hope future generations don't 'pick it up and run with it'. It's ugly, sloppy.

You descend into self-importance ('We';'historical';'guide';'forerunners'), and trite platitude ('the forerunners...society'), and error (your 'what ever' should arguably be 'whatever', your 'basic fundamental' is tautologous and downright annoying).

could say much more/can't be arsed

[suchmoon]

And it was major players like AOL what helped in its adoption... I am not sure Bitcoin already have its "AOL" or if we could consider Coinbase to be the equivalent.

Coinbase support (or lack thereof) is very much AOL-esque. As is their infuriating slowness at times. Adoption - not so much. They insist on using less favorable exchange rates AND charging much higher fees on Coinbase than on GDAX. Makes no sense. As if they're deliberately trying to piss users off.

[marcus_of_augustus]

With the arrival of the information age I think we have produced way more smart people than ever before. The internet has become such a powerful tool to educate yourself, anybody with an cellphone has a tremendous amount of knowledge in their pocket. Too bad many people choose to not use it to it's fullest potential.

you might be confusing 'smartness' with something else entirely ... idiots educated beyond the level of their intellectual capacity is not a new phenomena .... probably the internet has just created a swag more of these dangerous fools .... case in point take jbreher with his dunning-kruger tendencies now leading him to write in overly-eloquent verbiage to convey trivial, and usually erroneous, meandering thoughts; then hops on his high-horse about a computer science and networking design matter that is clearly well-outside his grasp, and follows up to defend his bruised ego by championing a cause that is clearly to his economic detriment ... that fact alone encapsulates educated beyond their intelligence.

[El duderino_]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

27/12/2017 bikerleszno
29/12/2018 cAPSLOCK 
30/12/2017 digithusiast
31/12/2017 Raja_MBZ
01/01/2018 elg
02/01/2018 wachtwoord
03/01/2018 JimboToronto
04/01/2018 d_eddie 
05/01/2018 BTCMILLIONAIRE
06/01/2018 HanvanBitcoin
07/01/2018 ghandi
08/01/2018 savetherainforrest
09/01/2018 explorer
10/01/2018 bicoinpsycho
11/01/2018 Bitcoinaire
12/01/2018 speedwheel
13/01/2018 undeadbitcoiner
14/01/2018 northypoale
15/01/2018 ivomm
16/01/2018 maca068
17/01/2018 bitcoinvest
18/01/2018 last of the v8s
19/01/2018 mfort312
20/01/2018 1982dre
21/01/2018 flamast2
22/01/2018 RealMachasm
23/01/2018 willope
24/01/2018 kartala
25/01/2018 orpington
26/01/2018 rolling
27/01/2018 LFC_bitcoin
28/01/2018 jojo69
29/01/2018 CristiTCM
30/01/2018 rayX12
31/01/2018 realsteelboy
01/02/2018 twocorn
02/02/2018 mancroofer
03/02/2018 True Myth
04/02/2018 poolminor
05/02/2018 itod
06/02/2018 scheptan
07/02/2018 vapourminer
08/02/2018 alexeft
09/02/2018 siera
10/02/2018 AlcoHoDL
11/02/2018 Dunkelheit667
12/02/2018 yonton
13/02/2018 Wekkel
14/02/2018 Thekool1s
15/02/2018 starmman
16/02/2018 Globb0
17/02/2018 leveldkrypto
18/02/2018 olesh
19/02/2018 BitCoinBurger
20/02/2018 Paashaas
21/02/2018 flynn
22/02/2018 icygreen
23/02/2018 erisdiscordia
24/02/2018 phil_s
25/02/2018 sirazimuth
26/02/2018 Arriemoller
27/02/2018 yonton
28/02/2018 Muttley
01/03/2018 bones261
02/03/2018 heater
03/03/2018 soullyG
04/03/2018 InvoKing
05/03/2018 Notme
06/03/2018 sa_94
07/03/2018 NUFCrichard
08/03/2018 Imbatman
09/03/2018 Roombot
10/03/2018 STT
11/03/2018 badream
13/03/2018 erre
14/03/2018 julian071
15/03/2018 podyx
17/03/2018 fragout
18/03/2018 fabiorem
21/03/2018 dakustaking76
23/03/2018 nikauforest
31/03/2018 vroom
01/04/2018 somac.
02/04/2018 kurious
04/04/2018 fluidjax
05/04/2018 bitcoinbunny
08/04/2018 tyler1890
10/04/2018 ludwigvon
11/04/2018 hairymaclairy
16/04/2018 practicaldreamer
18/04/2018 free-bit.co.in
27/04/2018 drbrockoin
01/05/2018 sprinkles
02/06/2018 oblox
07/07/2018 IntroVert
03/08/2018 toxic2040
28/08/2018 bitserve
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK

[bitserve]

And it was major players like AOL what helped in its adoption... I am not sure Bitcoin already have its "AOL" or if we could consider Coinbase to be the equivalent.

Coinbase support (or lack thereof) is very much AOL-esque. As is their infuriating slowness at times. Adoption - not so much. They insist on using less favorable exchange rates AND charging much higher fees on Coinbase than on GDAX. Makes no sense. As if they're deliberately trying to piss users off.

It's a common business practice to raise prices (fees in this case) when you can't service all the demand. So it is somewhat fair what they are doing, presumably until they scale enough to (adequately) attend a bigger user base. AOL was also more expensive than what earlier Internet users had (ie: free for one reasons or another).

So yes... maybe coinbase is our AOL. Let's just hope they do things right and other competitors also rise.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

With the arrival of the information age I think we have produced way more smart people than ever before. The internet has become such a powerful tool to educate yourself, anybody with an cellphone has a tremendous amount of knowledge in their pocket. Too bad many people choose to not use it to it's fullest potential.

you might be confusing 'smartness' with something else entirely ... idiots educated beyond the level of their intellectual capacity is not a new phenomena .... probably the internet has just created a swag more of these dangerous fools .... case in point take jbreher with his dunning-kruger tendencies now leading him to write in overly-eloquent verbiage to convey trivial, and usually erroneous, meandering thoughts; then hops on his high-horse about a computer science and networking design matter that is clearly well-outside his grasp, and follows up to defend his bruised ego by championing a cause that is clearly to his economic detriment ... that fact alone encapsulates educated beyond their intelligence.

I've been meaning to ask, but what is the product series in your avatar?

The only things that come to mind are sine and cosine, but those are sums and have 2pi in their summands. So I thought it could be something along the lines of a log of a negative exponential due to the -1 factor that doesn't appear in the standard expression for the exponential series and the product could've been a result of a logarithm.
But that wouldn't really make sense either, unless you were deliberately trying to create a series that looks complicated, makes some references, but ultimately is just a fancy way to write something like "1".

Don't really feel like refreshing my analysis to figure out the limit of the series, hence my question.

[marcus_of_augustus]

In terms of awareness it is probably 1998 but adoption wise it is probably around 1995 with just the university kids on the Net. Cool colleagues have just started trading crypto but the rest is still ignoring it. Some probably will the rest of their lives  

I'm not even sure if the mainstream will get into crypto the same way as us. I could see them using it as a replacement for Paypal and credit cards in the "far" future or in some more sophisticated form of cryptokittes. But the general population isn't into risks, especially if they aren't very obvious and layed out for you as if you were braindead (like modern games). And crypto is inherently fuzzy and unpredictable without an understanding of real world Economics or at least Statistics.

Globally, 1% of the population controls 80% of the wealth, in USA 0.1% of the population controls the same amount of wealth as the bottom 90%.

Bitcoin is money. Although money is used by the mainstream, bitcoin wealth is unlikely to be adopted by the mainstream, and does not need to be to compete in the market of existing currencies. Wealth inequality means if current wealth holders adopt bitcoin it has succeeded, it clearly does not need to "go mainstream' in the way that SV is thinking of previous adoptions of new technologies and networks.

[elg]

wow, such se reflechier, wisdom in the last pages, no shouting, no war , unreal
but a good read  

[Torque]

...
Perhaps 2018 is bitcoin's 1994.

...By 1998 things had changed alot.  Win 95/98 IE/Netscape made it much more useful and simple to use the internet and sites began to proliferate.  I had dropped out to take a 35k job at a search engine optimization company (which seemed like alot at the time) that quickly went out of biz, but my connections from that job led to other connections that have kept me working for the 20 years since.

tldr; if it's 1994,  buckle up, things will be unrecognizable in 4 years.

What would be our Netscape moment? Or AOL temporary dominance?
Is Lightning a.k.a Netscape (without the IPO) and is Coinbase/Binance/Bitfinex, perhaps, the AOL equivalent?
Or, would it be something else out of left field?

At this point, I think Bitcoin's "internet" or "Netscape" moment won't have much to do with a bunch of tech advancements to either Bitcoin or 2nd layer solutions. Personally I think it's going to be Bitcoin ETFs that define the turning point.

When Wall Street and corporations start singing the praises of Bitcoin ETFs, hedge fund investors can begin to invest directly through those vehicles, and Mom and Pop suddenly find a Bitcoin ETF as part of their company's Mutual Fund 401k portfolio offerings... then look the fk out.

Money will come pouring in. And Average Joes on the street will suddenly start buying in as well.

And possibly something like Bitcoin being added as a payment option to EBay or Amazon. That would also be huge.

[suchmoon]

And it was major players like AOL what helped in its adoption... I am not sure Bitcoin already have its "AOL" or if we could consider Coinbase to be the equivalent.

Coinbase support (or lack thereof) is very much AOL-esque. As is their infuriating slowness at times. Adoption - not so much. They insist on using less favorable exchange rates AND charging much higher fees on Coinbase than on GDAX. Makes no sense. As if they're deliberately trying to piss users off.

It's a common business practice to raise prices (fees in this case) when you can't service all the demand. So it is somewhat fair what they are doing, presumably until they scale enough to (adequately) attend a bigger user base. AOL was also more expensive than what earlier Internet users had (ie: free for one reasons or another).

So yes... maybe coinbase is our AOL. Let's just hope they do things right and other competitors also rise.

So all we need now is a book store named after a river...

Edit:

Amazon

LOL

[marcus_of_augustus]

I've been meaning to ask, but what is the product series in your avatar?

The only things that come to mind are sine and cosine, but those are sums and have 2pi in their summands. So I thought it could be something along the lines of a log of a negative exponential due to the -1 factor that doesn't appear in the standard expression for the exponential series and the product could've been a result of a logarithm.

it is the series for a function I discovered that has some useful and interesting properties. PM me if you want to know any more.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I've been meaning to ask, but what is the product series in your avatar?

The only things that come to mind are sine and cosine, but those are sums and have 2pi in their summands. So I thought it could be something along the lines of a log of a negative exponential due to the -1 factor that doesn't appear in the standard expression for the exponential series and the product could've been a result of a logarithm.

it is the series for a function I discovered that has some useful and interesting properties. PM me if you want to know any more.

PM sent.

[Wekkel]

So, we need to get Bitcoin on a CD ROM to get this going

[Toxic2040]

...
Perhaps 2018 is bitcoin's 1994.

...By 1998 things had changed alot.  Win 95/98 IE/Netscape made it much more useful and simple to use the internet and sites began to proliferate.  I had dropped out to take a 35k job at a search engine optimization company (which seemed like alot at the time) that quickly went out of biz, but my connections from that job led to other connections that have kept me working for the 20 years since.

tldr; if it's 1994,  buckle up, things will be unrecognizable in 4 years.

What would be our Netscape moment? Or AOL temporary dominance?
Is Lightning a.k.a Netscape (without the IPO) and is Coinbase/Binance/Bitfinex, perhaps, the AOL equivalent?
Or, would it be something else out of left field?

If I would guess, this. There is this accelerated curve(parabolic) of technology and innovation that has occured over the last 50 years. This snowball effect will continue until the Singularity.

I can remember clearly the first time I shilled the internet. It was at my friends printing shop..you know..the kind with a actual 3 color offset press...not a photocopier...anyway. I was helping him set up a basic db for hes revolving accounts on DOS 3.something and telling him the benefits he would receive if he would just upgrade from a 14.4k to a 28.8k modem.    

[elg]

So, we need to get Bitcoin on a CD ROM to get this going

jajaja
on windows 3.1

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

...
Perhaps 2018 is bitcoin's 1994.

...By 1998 things had changed alot.  Win 95/98 IE/Netscape made it much more useful and simple to use the internet and sites began to proliferate.  I had dropped out to take a 35k job at a search engine optimization company (which seemed like alot at the time) that quickly went out of biz, but my connections from that job led to other connections that have kept me working for the 20 years since.

tldr; if it's 1994,  buckle up, things will be unrecognizable in 4 years.

What would be our Netscape moment? Or AOL temporary dominance?
Is Lightning a.k.a Netscape (without the IPO) and is Coinbase/Binance/Bitfinex, perhaps, the AOL equivalent?
Or, would it be something else out of left field?

If I would guess, this. There is this accelerated curve(parabolic) of technology and innovation that has occured over the last 50 years. This snowball effect will continue until the Singularity.

I can remember clearly the first time I shilled the internet. It was at my friends printing shop..you know..the kind with a actual 3 color offset press...not a photocopier...anyway. I was helping him set up a basic db for hes revolving accounts on DOS 3.something and telling him the benefits he would receive if he would just upgrade from a 14.4k to a 28.8k modem.    

I don't see a singularity putting a stop to the snowball effect. It's "just" an event comparable to going from apes to humans, but there'll be new problems that will take decades and centuries to solve.

A singularity doesn't just imply an explosion of productivity and capacity, or I guess you could state it that way. But that would also entail the capacity to produce problems that are far beyond the reach of a society that is well into the singularity.

If we think of teleportation or FTL travel we can't even really begin to fathom how to construct a practical solution. And while those problems may or may not become trivial with a singularity event, there'd surely be problems of similar status for a post-singularity society.

[JayJuanGee]

We have (barely) broken the downward channel which has dominated since $17k.   Even if the pump doesn’t hold, the channel is now vulnerable.  It could be the end of the bear market.

I have a hard time thinking of this pullback from a monster pump as anything close to a bear market.

Most would consider a 70% retracement from ATH as a crash.  Even in Bitcoin.  I am not wordy man so I will leave it at that.

I'm not wordy man, either (NOT)... yet I have to agree with the picnic bear on this not a bear market assessment.  

A less than 2 month price correction does not rise to the level of a bear market, but if we are still bouncing down to the $7k territory in 6 months, both the picnic bear and I may have to reconsider our assessment based on those new facts (that have not yet played out, as I type...    ) , and perhaps jbreher and I would conclude differently depending on what happens in these upcoming 6 months in the event that we are still bouncing down to $7k during that time.

On the other hand, if we bounce around in the range of $7k to $20k in the next 6 months, then that would not necessarily be bearish, but if we are having difficulties getting above $10k or maintaining prices above $10k in the next 6 months or so, and we still keep retesting the $7ks, then perhaps under those kinds of facts (that have not played out yet) we might be within the range of bear market considerations.

In other words, currently, our facts of BTC price performance between August 2017 and even just focusing on December 2017 until now seem quite far from a bear market definition based on a mere less than 2 months of this current correction and a seeming rebound from the bottom of that correction... We gotta look at the context, hello, and that context is broader than merely the past less than 2 months..