I am getting the impression that you are very skeptical about BTC, and perhaps you are correct that bitcoin might be in a long level of flat and downward trends - but your assumption is no where near a given. This is not 2014/2015, so price dynamics could play out differently.. on the other hand, 2019 is not necessarily a long time to wait for price action, and it is only 9 months away.
There are several different levels (roughly corresponding to timeframes) of my attitude towards bitcoin. I am very skeptical about the short term. Of course, it is just an opinion (nobody can predict bitcoin's price), but I feel the cold breath of another cryptowinter.
O.k. sure. None of us really know what is going to go on exactly; however, I consider myself similar to you in having had formed a tentative framework for what I believe is going to happen in terms of short term or long term, and surely I have difficulties attempting to predict on any kind of meaningful basis except having decent considerations that bitcoin is a good long term investment and it is good to accumulate bitcoin, and even if there is short term noise, the fundamentals of bitcoin continue to get stronger and stronger.
At the same time, my longer term view is much more optimistic. I thought bitcoin was dead when it fell from more than $30 to $2, then in 2014 I lost interest (mainly due to personal reasons), but now I think there is a high probability (although, obviously, not a certainty) of another exponential rise, especially if second layer solutions (LN, smart contracts) appear. As for the very long term and the idea that bitcoin can fundamentally change the existing economic and financial system, I am sure it will not happen. In this sense, I am not a bitcoin enthusiast.
Yes, you seem to have been through quite a few volatile periods, and you seem more pessimistic than me about long term bitcoin fundamentals - even though you seem to have a decently long term following the space. I gave you a merit for your explanation anyhow, in spite of your "lackings."... hahahahaha
If you are sensing that you may not want to study into bitcoin or accumulate or anything like that in the coming year, then likely you already have a BTC stash that you feel is sufficient in the event that BTC prices go up from here - and sure it is possible that you have other things going on in your life that you feel deserve more of your attention, as compared with bitcoin.
Other folks may be more inclined, during this particular possible lull period to continue to spend decent resources accumulating bitcoin, in anticipation that a upwards price run is going to take place, even if the upwards price run is not imminent, it will pay off to continue to reasonable make continued accumulation efforts during this period.
If you have a lower price point in which you will buy in such as $5k or $3k or even $1.5k, you may or may not get such opportunity to buy in at that point, but it is good to personally have some outline regarding where you would consider to be good buying opportunities and also to be sufficiently content if the price does not go down to your buy target points.
I always strictly follow another rule, "do not invest more than you can afford to lose".
Of course, this concept is fundamental to any volatile investment, but people still use it in differing ways. I use it to consider that I am not leveraging or betting and that I have my living expenses covered for 6 months into the future with my cash flow, then any extra I can invest into bitcoin. Over time, that can add up to a lot of money, especially once the bitcoin ends up appreciating 30x... So maybe starting off with a modest $10k ends up in the $300k territory... so motivations can change, even though the initial $10k did not seem to be very much the $300k gets into Lambo territory.. and some folks start to think,.... " I could have had a lambo for $10k?" when the price starts to go down, we can see where there can be emotions... and how much was initially invested can get lost in the shuffle.
I have some coins I mined long ago (well, in bitcoin world 6-7 years is 'long ago'), so I am not especially worried about short-term fluctuations - in total I would not be at loss even if the price plunges to lower hundreds (yes, I am mostly a HODLer). Buying/investing is another story, and trading is yet another.
Sounds like you are in a decent personal position, then.
There were at least two big bull traps this year, and I am not convinced there there will be no more.
I would be hard pressed to call price fluctuations in a correction bull traps.. even though technically you are correct.
You are also correct in the sense that it is going to take a lot of breaking through upwards resistance to get back to $19k price territories.
In one sense, it would make sense a decent amount of sense if you don't feel very passionate about bitcoin or very strongly about wanting to accumulate bitcoin, then you may well not be very invested in the concept (but only luke warm about it), so in that regard, it would make sense that you would not even feel any kind of inclination to share your knowledge with others because you merely view bitcoin as blasé.... and something that may or may not happen or some thing that may or may not be important.. and that is your viewpoint, which likely differs from guys who actively participate in forums like this one, even during down price periods. For different folks, there are different strokes.
Forums are different, here I may be much more talkative, although I prefer to read, not to post.
I learn about about myself and about my own stance by attempting to interact on ideas.. but sure, sometimes, just reading can be insightful, too.
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