Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

A ridiculously early good morning Bitcoinland. Sorry but 7:00AM is past my usual bedtime. Gawd I hate farmers' hours. Sitting at the airport waiting for my plane.

We seem to be continuing sideways... currently $5209USD/$7015CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Hopefully by the time I fly back up with my new teeth and lovely young girlfriend Bitcoin will be up over $6k. I'll have to buy some dollars when I get back. Taking down bucks I bought when Bitcoin was over $5.5k. This barely over $5k crap is bullshit.

Go Bitcoin go.

If you could just hide the fact you're going south, Jimbo...! 

Anywayz, when you get back to Toronto, the corn will sure notice and get back up with you. 

[Icygreen]

Hoan Kiem Lake near Turtle pagoda in Hanoi?

Edit: Could also be Ho Tay lake (west lake) in Hanoi. I say its Hanoi because IIRC you've worked/spent time in China and this would be an immediate holiday destination or work-cation.

Great work. Absolutely nailed it. It is Hoan Kiem Lake.  Super fast detective work Icygreen !

The turtle pagoda is visible in the background on the lake, over the shoulder of the girl in the white top, next to the girl in the red top





Hoan Kiem Lake is famous because a turtle god lives in it that gave the Vietnamese emperor a sword to fight off Chinese invaders

Nice one hairy and thanks for the merits!, I recognized the lamp post bottoms and the sandals from the first photo but never been to Hanoi.
Thanks, my detective cap is on today but to no real avail: short story:

My dog went missing early yesterday morning where I spend a lot of time in Vietnam and today was spent visiting all the restaurants that serve dog. I did not want to see that....  fucking monkey savages, really, I just wanted to.. .  Anyhow, we didn't find him and my girl is heartbroken.  Back to Canada next week where at least my other dog gets to grow old and fat and fart her way to death.  Sorry for the rant, just having a sad moment.

[hv_]

and if this "pushes" people into using Lightning, then good.

Lightning incentivizes everyone to only have one channel open with a bank which then routes all of their transactions.  HOW THE FUCK IS THAT GOOD?  WHY would anyone advocate for that garbage over physical metals? Oh yea, I forgot, you're all con artist scammers who only care about trying to profit off pump and dumps even though you could just as easily make as much or more money in metals while not promoting (((digital currency))) slavery and surveillance systems.

Hey - very good spotting. But seems for BTC it's too late to fix that now.  There is only one from many 'busines case' left over: Speculation

 

[HairyMaclairy]

So sorry to hear that about your dog.  That would be a very difficult day for anyone. 

[Last of the V8s]

Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.

*statist claptrap censored*

If you carefully read what I wrote, You'll understand I didn't stated he invented the concept, but I stated he was the first to apply it to Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/875873520290598913
You can see him working on it here
https://thesaifhouse.wpcomstaging.com/2016/07/09/the-bitcoin-halving-and-monetary-competition/
whereas this was earlier, but wasn't really picked up
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3db9nn/stocktoflow_ratio_of_bitcoin_surpasses_that_of/

[nutildah]

WARNING

Quoting the Roach below!

Giving ignorers a chance
to skip it.

Sorry for quoting the Roach, guys, but this may be worth a laugh. I was (passive-aggressively) amused.

No, Youre right it was worth it.

and if this "pushes" people into using Lightning, then good.

Lightning incentivizes everyone to only have one channel open with a bank which then routes all of their transactions.  HOW THE FUCK IS THAT GOOD?  WHY would anyone advocate for that garbage over physical metals? Oh yea, I forgot, you're all con artist scammers who only care about trying to profit off pump and dumps even though you could just as easily make as much or more money in metals while not promoting (((digital currency))) slavery and surveillance systems.

Hey - very good spotting. But seems for BTC it's too late to fix that now.  There is only one from many 'busines case' left over: Speculation

 

Quoting roach without a warning = instant ignore.

[Last of the V8s]

I am in the same situation. 1 month ago I transferred 1015€ from my Crypto Captial account to my German bank account and never received the money  
Support doesn't reply to my emails nor do they answer the phone.

So I will now contact CEX.IO to see if they can get my money back, and also post a SCAM REPORT on this forum, to warn people:

DO NOT use Crypto Capital !!!

What happened:  
Placed withdrawal of $ 9 890 from Crypto Capital to my U. S. bank account 12/13/2017.
Received an automatic message on my email that the payment successfully withdrawn from Crypto Capital account 12/14/2017.
Balance on my Crypto Capital account is 0.00.
Money has never come to my bank account.

Scammers Profile Link: http://cryptocapital.co

Amount Scammed: $ 9 890
Payment Method: USD bank transfer  
Proof of Payment: https://imgur.com/a/JZXFG
Additional Notes:
 I have been trying to get in touch with them withing 2 months, no success: called them up, emailing them. It has been more than 10 weeks.
Total Crypto Capital ignoring and Cex.io has washed their hands and kicked me off to stay alone with their scammed partner…
Money has never come to my bank account. Beware of Crypto Capital by Cex.io

via https://decryptmedia.com/6759/crypto-capital-quadrigacx-bitfinex

[Last of the V8s]

https://hackernoon.com/armageddon-binance-chain-dex-ethereum-7bb867ea71cb

really overblown title for otherwise informative article on CZ's word-salad implementation
he might be left holding the baby

a lot of this depends on whether the EU can whip Malta into line

[Last of the V8s]

https://hackernoon.com/armageddon-binance-chain-dex-ethereum-7bb867ea71cb

really overblown title for otherwise informative article on CZ's word-salad implementation
he might be left holding the baby

a lot of this depends on whether the EU can whip Malta into line

Why would anyone want to go to a centralized token? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of many of these projects? I don't get the hype over CZs "eth killer"

I guess everyone remembers that an obvious scam like ETH went to 1400 beer tokens per in the last bull market, and they're hoping their obvious scams will do likewise in the next.

[Globb0]

Some calculations on the value of bitcoin based on time and effort expelled





So there is the answer to how into BTC is roach?

The answer is $ 16,396.88

[fillippone]

Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.

*statist claptrap censored*

If you carefully read what I wrote, You'll understand I didn't stated he invented the concept, but I stated he was the first to apply it to Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/875873520290598913
You can see him working on it here
https://thesaifhouse.wpcomstaging.com/2016/07/09/the-bitcoin-halving-and-monetary-competition/
whereas this was earlier, but wasn't really picked up
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3db9nn/stocktoflow_ratio_of_bitcoin_surpasses_that_of/

Firstof all sorry If i quoted *someone* without proper warning. I don't want to be insta-ignored by anyone , I plead guilty not being part of this WO family so I need to cachup with all the feuds going on.
Secondly I think then you basically agree with me, The concept is not new, but i think that someone writing in  a reddit post doesn't mean Saifedean has pagiarised anyone, did he?

[HairyMaclairy]

That’s hilarious Globbo

[dyask]

Sorry for quoting the Roach, guys, but this may be worth a laugh. I was (passive-aggressively) amused.

So I guess he isn't one of the respected leaders here ... I wasn't sure since there is a lot of noise in this very lively thread.   Anyway don't be too hard on him.   He is likely bed bound due to excessive weight or something like that.  At least he identifies himself as something undesirable.    A couple years ago when I left bitcointalk guys like him seemed to rule this forum.   Now it seems their presence is pretty controlled.  

Frankly I had given up on Bitcoin a couple years ago after being scammed so many times and being accused of being a scammer whenever I just spoke what I thought.   If I had just been a holder I would be sitting pretty!   At one point I had over 50 times the amount of BTC I do now!  

[HairyMaclairy]

I guess everyone remembers that an obvious scam like ETH went to 1400 beer tokens per in the last bull market, and they're hoping their obvious scams will do likewise in the next.

The most distressing part was choosing not to participate in the initial crowd sale of 2000 ETH per BTC because it was such an obvious scam.  

1 BTC then would be 58 BTC today.

[Last of the V8s]

I guess everyone remembers that an obvious scam like ETH went to 1400 beer tokens per in the last bull market, and they're hoping their obvious scams will do likewise in the next.

The most distressing part was choosing not to participate in the initial crowd sale of 2000 ETH per BTC because it was such an obvious scam.  

1 BTC then would be 58 BTC today.

and one's soul would be an empty grey husk
looking for the next scam

[HairyMaclairy]

Indeed

If you went for the ETH scam you would have gone for the other scams too and been a Storj bag holder etc

[Last of the V8s]

Firstof all sorry If i quoted *someone* without proper warning. I don't want to be insta-ignored by anyone , I plead guilty not being part of this WO family so I need to cachup with all the feuds going on.
Secondly I think then you basically agree with me, The concept is not new, but i think that someone writing in  a reddit post doesn't mean Saifedean has pagiarised anyone, did he?

Yeah most people prefer one not to quote roach or even engage him. Some do engage, but to no effect. He's a stupid troll. I wouldn't pay him anything for his bleating, as there's far better material out there to attack us with, and he ignores it. He clearly just wants to buy low.
No, no plagiarism or disagreement implied, just presenting some history of a work-in-progress, many minds muddling together sort of thing. Of course when the #trilema search comes back up, we'll probably find stock to flow was discussed there in 2013 or something.
saifedean, shelby (anonymint of this parish) and tiny moi all acknowledge our learning from #trilema. roach feigns originality where there is none.

[Febo]

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.

I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.    Or better example to be more clear. If USD will not have huge inflation in next 10 years we will for sure not see a $2.8m bitcoin around year 2028.

[fillippone]

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.

I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.   
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.   

This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

[d_eddie]

Some calculations on the value of bitcoin based on time and effort expelled

(sensible calc snipped - refer to OP)

So there is the answer to how into BTC is roach?

The answer is $ 16,396.88

+1 WOsMerit Globb0!