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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 4 (6.1%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 12 (18.2%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 20 (30.3%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 11 (16.7%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 6 (9.1%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 3 (4.5%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 1 (1.5%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (1.5%)
>$350,000 - 8 (12.1%)
Total Voters: 66

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21499326 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (138 posts by 32 users deleted.)
jonoiv
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May 16, 2019, 11:07:09 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

The image isn't clear to me. Is bitcoin at 2015 fell down before it rallies up? Many scenarios was viewed this way. So I think that this will be the scenario we might see in the coming days.



But a difference is that in then in 2015 and now (2019) there is a halvening event coming up, in about roughly 372 days

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Or somthing like this.  I didn't take the exact averages I can't be bothered to work it out, so i took a rough guess.

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May 16, 2019, 11:08:12 PM

I’ve been around since early 2013. The bottom is in.




Posting an accurate piece of art
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May 16, 2019, 11:19:36 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

The image isn't clear to me. Is bitcoin at 2015 fell down before it rallies up? Many scenarios was viewed this way. So I think that this will be the scenario we might see in the coming days.



But a difference is that in then in 2015 and now (2019) there is a halvening event coming up, in about roughly 372 days

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
The other difference is the length between the bottom to the rally, in 2015 it bottomed in January and didnt start moving up until September, this time it took 3 1/2 months between December to the beginning of April before the rally began. Also the length from $1.2k to $160 took almost 14 months, the length from $20k to $3.1k was 12 months.

Things are moving faster, so what this tells me, this BEAR/BULL cycle we are in will be somewhere between the 2012 and 2015 cycles, I think we will exceed the percentage that we saw from 1.2k to 20k......
jonoiv
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May 16, 2019, 11:24:30 PM

The image isn't clear to me. Is bitcoin at 2015 fell down before it rallies up? Many scenarios was viewed this way. So I think that this will be the scenario we might see in the coming days.



But a difference is that in then in 2015 and now (2019) there is a halvening event coming up, in about roughly 372 days

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
The other difference is the length between the bottom to the rally, in 2015 it bottomed in January and didnt start moving up until September, this time it took 3 1/2 months between December to the beginning of April before the rally began. Also the length from $1.2k to $160 took almost 14 months, the length from $20k to $3.1k was 12 months.

Things are moving faster, so what this tells me, this BEAR/BULL cycle we are in will be somewhere between the 2012 and 2015 cycles, I think we will exceed the percentage that we saw from 1.2k to 20k......

Unless what we are witnessing now is the pahse B of an elliot wave, the 2013 bubble to phase B was 6 months.  

Im not saying you're wrong.  Ill try to take part no matter which way it is,  I just don't want to make the wrong decision and be a bag holder for 4 years.
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May 16, 2019, 11:29:19 PM

Good night WO.

Going for a HODLsleep 😁

Can I see $8,3xx+ when I wake up? 🤪

Gonna join this brother and wanna see the same Cheesy

Goodnight and into HODLstation!!!!!!!
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May 16, 2019, 11:35:47 PM

Shocked

It said address own 1BTC not the person.

A person can have 100s of BTC in his HD wallet where it's not necessary that any address has to have 1BTC or more. He may have address with 0.99999999BTC in there.

I do agree.
Also the reverse is true: one address can sum the holding of many persons: e.g. exchanges cold wallet.
In the end is a shitty metric either way.
StartupAnalyst
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May 16, 2019, 11:45:35 PM

Here's an example of a typical BTC hater's way of thinking.  Grin Grin


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May 16, 2019, 11:48:37 PM

Every time I'm standing in line at the gas station or convenience store, and the person in front of me is buying lottery tickets, I'm like You idiot
How can you possibly be throwing that money away on lottery tickets when you could be buying bitcoin!!??
StartupAnalyst
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May 16, 2019, 11:59:12 PM

Every time I'm standing in line at the gas station or convenience store, and the person in front of me is buying lottery tickets, I'm like You idiot
How can you possibly be throwing that money away on lottery tickets when you could be buying bitcoin!!??
To the great joy of my family, no one buys lottery tickets. I convinced my brothers to buy BTC long ago.
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May 17, 2019, 12:32:17 AM
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If bull run had not yet started then only point similar to last cycle is that we are right before beartrap. Jully 2015.   But with more days that passes and higher price Bitcoin gets, there is less and less chances for that.
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May 17, 2019, 12:32:33 AM

You can't throw a few dollars into bitcoin and become a millionaire like before.  the lottery gives desperate poor people a hope of becoming wealthy.  But the government lotteries are probably rigged anyways.
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May 17, 2019, 12:40:04 AM

random doodles

#dyor

D


D w/doubled cloud settings


W


W w/doubled cloud settings

#stronghands
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May 17, 2019, 12:45:25 AM
Last edit: May 17, 2019, 01:07:05 AM by Gyrsur

Gold Bar 400 oz =



1 BTC =
jonoiv
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May 17, 2019, 12:55:55 AM





If bull run had not yet started then only point similar to last cycle is that we are right before beartrap. Jully 2015.   But with more days that passes and higher price Bitcoin gets, there is less and less chances for that.

Fair chance you're right.  Definatley not counted it out
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May 17, 2019, 01:07:56 AM

You can't throw a few dollars into bitcoin and become a millionaire like before.  the lottery gives desperate poor people a hope of becoming wealthy.  But the government lotteries are probably rigged anyways.

The lotteries in the US usually have a 50% edge. Perhaps not "rigged," but the expected payout is 9x worse than American Roulette.
StartupAnalyst
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May 17, 2019, 01:19:06 AM

The pattern of price movement of this heap of shit.  Grin


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May 17, 2019, 01:21:37 AM

I'm trying to understand precisely why you are making the assertion that if the price skyrockets then mining skyrockets too.

Mining HAS to skyrocket for the price to go up and actually stay there.  Nobody is going to buy a coin from you for $20k if they can simply mine it for $2-4k instead.  There is ZERO reason for them NOT to deploy massive amounts of new miners if the price was to legitimately increase, otherwise they're just leaving free money left on the table.

Put 2+2 together.  The only reason mining capex did NOT skyrocket in the last pump and dump to $20k is because these mining oligarchs knew it was nothing but sheer manipulation and fraud bringing it there, and criminal exchanges like Bitfinex and their Tethers cooking the books.  Actors like Bitmain and the Chinese mining cartels probably even collude with them behind the scenes to make it happen.  That is the nature of 21st century so called "capitalism" anywhere you look, it's always collusion of crony capitalist monopolies with each other in hopes of defrauding the non-colluding middle class.  It's the norm, not the exception.

Actors like Bitmain can do things like hoard all the supply that they're mining, fund operations entirely through borrowing, then after they have an enormous amount of coins, send them all to Bitfinex and use them as margin collateral to leverage the market 3x higher and dump all the valueless shitcoins they mined on idiots.  They don't expand their own mining operations because they already know the price increase is nothing but a scam of their own creation and they're just fleecing people.
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May 17, 2019, 01:25:59 AM

You can't throw a few dollars into bitcoin and become a millionaire like before.  the lottery gives desperate poor people a hope of becoming wealthy.  But the government lotteries are probably rigged anyways.

The lotteries in the US usually have a 50% edge. Perhaps not "rigged," but the expected payout is 9x worse than American Roulette.

50% is a 'tiny' edge compared to some other countries. In the Netherlands by law every lottery must donate 50% of their income to charity. Of course on top of that they have running cost and run a profit. So the edge of lotteries must be 75% at least, likely significantly higher.
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May 17, 2019, 01:43:21 AM

One Question

when 5-digits

When 12344? (or was it 12688 or smth?)

12288$ (@that time 10K €....)


Yeah time to update those lists, pffffffff where are they again, deep surge, or does anyone got them close Cheesy

And why never put in something yourself?

Or do I need to make a Bcash game (F*** only one player, you would always win) Tongue

Fake News!!!!!!  Bcash is going to have at least 6 players:  They gots:  Jbreher, roger ver, craig wright, jihan Wu, Calvin Ayre and peter Rizun

Left out mengerian.

...

You left out freetrader.
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May 17, 2019, 01:55:18 AM

Halvening centric perspective on Bitcoin price. H/T @StoicTrader_ & @MLescrauwaet

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/tuurdemeester/status/1129017877581967361?s=21


This chart shows we are not going below 6k anymore.

The expansion phase looks like a mini-bull market, and the reaccumulation is sidelined.
So everything is working as planned?


Yes, but this halvening-centric model is very conservative.

We need to consider the institutional money, and the acceleration it would bring. Jbreher posted about a $133k target in march 2020, I cant find his post right now.

I don't recall a specific $133K. Of course, I'm old, and my brain is tired. Maybe.

Regardless, it would have been a SOMA* analysis. I don't know how high it'll go. But I am expecting at least $100K at the next blow-off top, which will likely occur within the next 18-24 months.

*'SOMA' is a registered trademark of d_eddie. Used by assumed permission.
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